JJ's Jottings

Ranking the 2010 Best Picture Nominees

2011-01-28T11:36:00.000-05:00

Oscar nominations were unveiled on Tuesday, and while previously it looked like The Social Network was a shoo-in for the win (as it was racking up a lot of other awards), it now looks like there will be some competition from The King's Speech, which surprised many by receiving the most Oscar nominations (12) of any film. I can already say that the ten nominees are not the same as my ten favorite films of the year, and I'll release my top ten at a later time. Here is my personal ranking of the ten nominees (along with a brief comment on each), which will definitely not reflect the opinions of the Academy.

#10 - The Fighter

A boxing movie that is fun but overacted just about to the point of being annoying. In such films, it's important that we really care for the main character as a human being. However, in this case, all the attention is stolen by supporting characters. While the story of Christian Bale's character is intriguing, the other characters in the family are impossible to take seriously, which is a problem in a movie that in theory should strive for realism. To compare The Fighter to Rocky and Raging Bull is blasphemy.

#9 - True Grit

Certainly a solid re-imagination of the novel, and while I did find some aspects to be improvements over the 1969 film, there were also aspects that were weaker, and so I question the need for another film adaptation. In this version, I like the darker tone as well as the overall acting. However, in terms of storytelling, I prefer the older film, which features Rooster Cogburn (John Wayne / Jeff Bridges) as more of a main character as opposed to faithfully sticking to the perspective of Mattie Ross (Kim Darby / Hailee Steinfield).

#8 - Toy Story 3

With the expansion of the Best Picture nominees to ten films, I get the impression that each year's Pixar film will be a near lock for nomination, which is a great compliment to Pixar, though I feel that the quality has dropped off since WALL-E. Certainly Toy Story 3 was an enjoyable and emotional experience, but to me, it was more solid than special. I respect Pixar's unique ability to make films that appeal to all ages, but for the adults, this sequel probably relied too much on the nostalgia factor that I might have had if I were in love with the first two Toy Story films.

#7 - 127 Hours

I'll agree with the consensus that 127 Hours is impressive in that it makes a thoroughly entertaining movie out of a plot that is 90% described by the sentence "a man gets his arm stuck under a rock." In a way, this film is similar to The Hurt Locker in that both films really dig deep not into your emotions but into your actual sensations. Danny Boyle makes the most out of the plot through effective use of sound and cinematography, and especially an Oscar-worthy performance from James Franco, whose character goes through everything from emotional flashbacks to farcical self-interviews.

#6 - The Kids Are All Right

I'm not sure why movies of this type are always billed as comedy-dramas (Sideways comes to mind) when really they're just character-driven dramas with no more than a moment or two of comic relief and sometimes a couple of quirks. With that rant aside, The Kids Are All Right is very enjoyable and explores family-related situations beyond what I've seen from any other film. The acting really drives the film, with the most memorable performance by Annette Bening, along with a solid and completely contrasting performance from Mark Ruffalo.

#5 - The King's Speech

The King's Speech, much like its Oscars rival The Social Network is high in the likability factor in that both films are rather straightforward and can be enjoyed easily without too much effort on the part of the viewer's intellect or emotions. Rather, these two films rely on great dialogue and acting for more organic entertainment. I can't say that the film has any aspects that will stick with me for the rest of my life, but it is definitely a solid, entertaining, and very likable film that revolves around the uninhibited performances of Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush.

#4 - Winter's Bone

It's great to see the low-budget Sundance Film Festival winner included in the nominees this year. Winter's Bone has its foundation on a strong main character and an atmosphere that is mysterious and unsettling. Instead of being told a story, we instead live through the story, basically experiencing ourselves the ordeal of Jennifer Lawrence's character Ree Dolly. In addition to Lawrence's subtle yet compelling performance, the genuineness and stark realism of the film is what brings it as high as #4 on this list.

#3 - The Social Network

If I could describe this film in one word, it would be "solid." Not mind-blowing, but solid. Aaron Sorkin's fast-paced, witty script is the main star here, and the acting (with a few exceptions) is strong enough to do the writing justice. I hate to say it, but I get the impression that the "true story effect" (i.e. the notion that when a film is based off a true story, it is automatically better) is really inflating the critical response to this film. While I do appreciate the film's relevance to real life, it still for me lacks the "oomph" factor for me to rank it any higher than #3 on a weak year.

#2 - Black Swan

The start of the movie is rather slow and has more of a horror-like feel, but the film gradually accelerates to a finale that is so good that it pushes the movie above a more overall solid effort (The Social Network) in my rankings. The horror aspect seems random at first, but it really comes together by the middle. Natalie Portman's acting makes her a frontrunner for the Best Actress award, and the camerawork is especially superb - as if the camera is dancing ballet itself.

#1 - Inception

The only movie of the bunch that made me go "whoa." Inception was engaging from beginning to end, and created a world that was so engrossing and evocative, while maintaining a high level of entertainment by avoiding an overly convoluted plot. Leonardo DiCaprio once again shows us here (and in Shutter Island) why he is one of the greatest actors of our generation, yet he continues to be overlooked by the critics. Sadly, the film is essentially out of the running for Best Picture, as director Christopher Nolan was - for a second film in a row (The Dark Knight) - snubbed of a Best Director nomination.

Best MMA Fights of 2010

2011-01-21T00:56:00.001-05:00

It's a bit late for this, but here are my thoughts on some of the best action from a great year in mixed martial arts. These fights represent my favorite fights of the past year. Definitely the top criterion in the selection of these fights was the "enjoyment" factor, which for me is a combination of excitement that pleases the fight fan in me and the technical elegance that pleases the martial arts fan in me. This enjoyment takes into consideration not only the fight itself, but also the context - the fighters' previous history and tendencies, along with the buildup to the fight. What I weigh less than other rankings is the significance factor - a factor that puzzles me because gems like Bonnar vs. Soszynski and Hominick vs. Jabouin must not be overlooked just because they weren't high-profile title fights. However, do note that in selecting these fights, I only considered the "major" MMA organizations (UFC, WEC, Strikeforce, Bellator, DREAM, and Sengoku).

I've also almost finished up deciding on my favorite knockouts and submissions of the past year, and I will publish those in a future post, though as of right now I don't know whether or not I'll take the effort to make comments/write-ups for each entry as I will do here. Anyway, without further ado...

*****

Best Fights of 2010

Just missed the cut

#15 - Sean Sherk vs. Evan Dunham (UFC 119)

#14 - Cub Swanson vs. Mackens Semerzier (WEC 52)

#13 - Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Jason Brilz (UFC 114)

#12 - Carlos Condit vs. Rory MacDonald (UFC 115)

#11 - Josh Thomson vs. Gesias Cavalcante (Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Noons II)

*****

#10 - Kendall Grove vs. Mark Munoz (UFC 112)

A couple things about Mark Munoz: 1) He arguably has the most dangerous ground-and-pound for anyone not named Brock Lesnar. 2) His standup striking, while powerful, is slow and leaves many openings. 3) Whenever Munoz gets rocked, his first reaction is to latch on to his opponent's ankle, as opposed to, say, getting out of danger. That being said, Munoz is one of the most exciting fighters to watch in the sport because despite often getting himself into frustrating situations, if Munoz can find himself on top of his opponent, it's good night Irene, as Michael Schiavello would say. This UFC 112 prelim, thankfully, made it to the Spike TV broadcast, and let's just say that it made up for the Anderson Silva vs. Demian Maia debacle. Other than an early takedown (that Grove scrambled out of while taking minimal damage) and a couple haymakers, the opening round was all Grove, who stunned Munoz and proceeded to lay the smackdown on Munoz's head as he - well - latched onto Grove's leg. Later in the round Grove would attempt three dangerous looking chokes, but Munoz was able to power out of them and survive the round. Munoz looked fresh at the start of the second round, but a knee from Grove sent him down to the mat again. After some groundwork, Grove would start working for another submission (an armbar this time). Bad idea. Munoz escaped and ended up on top, where he pounded out Grove to get the amazing comeback victory.

*****

#9 - Ben Henderson vs. Anthony Pettis (WEC 53)

This fight will always be remembered for Anthony Pettis's flying kick off the cage, but overall it was a solid fight that was an excellent coda for the WEC in its last event before being folded into the UFC. The fight itself was as action-packed as people expected judging from who the two fighters were, and the kick was really what pushed this fight into the top ten. Both Henderson and Pettis had already proven themselves to be exciting, high-energy fighters, and especially with Pettis, you never know what to expect (who saw the au batido cartwheel kick coming in his bout against Shane Roller?). The first two rounds had great action both on the feet on the ground, and rounds three and four saw each fighter able to get his opponent in a dangerous position that could have ended in a submission had it not been for excellent submission defense. With four rounds in the books, each fighter had two rounds a piece (well, at least on two of the three judges' scorecards). That's when the kick came, flush on Henderson's jaw. Miraculously, Henderson didn't get knocked out, which provides support for my theory that Henderson must have some weird physiology going on (after getting "submitted" three times by Donald Cerrone in their epic 2009 battle but surviving and going on to win). That kick essentially marked the end of Henderson's tenure as WEC champion, as Pettis was able to take over the rest of the round and secure the win. Pettis will not get an immediate UFC title shot as originally promised, but he will remain an excellent prospect and definitely one of MMA's most exciting fighters to watch.

*****

#8 - B.J. Penn vs. Frank Edgar I (UFC 112)

This lightweight title fight ended in one of the most controversial decisions of the year (along with Garcia vs. Phan and Jackson vs. Machida), but there's no denying that it was a great, technical battle, if not at the very least for the surprise factor when Edgar, a 10 to 1 underdog, showed that he could be competitive with arguably the greatest lightweight of all time. Edgar showed off his cardio with nonstop in-and-out movement combined with beautiful transitions between striking and takedown attempts. The challenger was even able to score a few takedowns on the champ, who is notoriously difficult to take down. Meanwhile, Penn stuck to his style of stalking his opponent and using accurate but powerful boxing. Nearly every round was a close, technical endeavor, and while neither fighter was really ever in danger of being finished, the fight did still provide "holy ****" moments when Edgar scored takedowns. In the end, I scored the fight 48-47 for Edgar but would not have been upset with a 48-47 victory for Penn. The judges, however, saw it as more of a one-sided affair in Edgar's favor, including a 50-45 card from Doug Crosby, who would later make a strange post on the internet defending his decision. Because of the closeness of the fight, the controversial decision, the theories that Penn's relatively poor performance was a fluke, and the lack of another clear-cut contender meant an immediate rematch would be made. Edgar would dominate Penn to a clear decision and later defend his belt again in a draw against Gray Maynard that will inevitably land in the list of the top ten fights in 2011.

*****

#7 - Chris Leben vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama (UFC 116)

Our first of three entries from UFC 116 (which, unsurprisingly, I regard as the year's best card) features both great action and an unlikely story. Just one year ago, Leben was going through rough personal issues and had more of a gatekeeper role in the UFC after posting unimpressive results. Just two weeks before this fight, Leben made a comeback victory to defeat Aaron Simpson (also a great fight). Akiyama, meanwhile, was scheduled to fight Wanderlei Silva in a bout that would possibly determine a top middleweight contender. However, when Silva pulled out of the fight due to injury, he was replaced by none other than Leben, in perhaps one of the year's biggest surprises. Akiyama's camp initially wanted to pull out of the fight because they wanted a stronger opponent, but eventually agreed. The fight was even and action-packed, with Akiyama controlling the grappling and Leben being the better striker. After splitting the first two rounds, Akiyama was able to out-grapple Leben in the third and was looking in good shape to take the win. But with just seconds to go, Leben secured a triangle choke and shockingly forced the judoka to tap out. This win marked Leben's rebirth and placed him back on the map, while also securing his reputation as one of the sport's most likable fighters.

*****

#6 - Stephan Bonnar vs. Krzysztof Soszynski II (UFC 116)

Everyone remembers Stephan Bonnar's epic battle against Forrest Griffin in the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, and with this fight, Bonnar reminded us why his nickname is "The American Psycho." This fight came during a slump in Bonnar's career, with him losing his previous fight to Soszynski in controversial fashion after an accidental headbutt opened up a fight-ending cut (usually these accidents result in "no contests"). Anyway, this fight displayed what I think are two of Bonnar's awesome trademarks: bleeding a lot and flurries of haymakers while looking downward instead of forward (this is especially used as a "defense" in lieu of blocking, keeping distance, or timing counter punches). Both men were exchanging back and forth while the fight lasted, and while Soszynski was able to stun his opponent in the second, Bonnar quickly recovered, eventually dropped Soszynski with a huge knee and finished the job with ground-and-pound. Bonnar's pose for the camera after his victory is unforgettable, and both fighters put on a great show for the fans, with Bonnar perhaps baiting Soszynski into a reckless fight, which is exactly the kind of fight that Bonnar would want every time. Vintage Stephan Bonnar.

*****

#5 - Mark Hominick vs. Yves Jabouin (WEC 49)

The WEC had somewhat of a reputation for always delivering fights that satisfied, which differed from other organizations' approach of lining up good "on paper" match-ups that often underwhelmed. This battle featured a first round that reminds us of one major reason why WEC fights tended to be good - lighter fighters meant better cardio, and better cardio meant more unbroken action. The first round of this fight was a close striking battle in which both fighters were active nonstop. What sets this round apart from others on this list is the level of technicality and precision, which contrasts to other memorable rounds that are more matters of heart and wildness. However, the heart factor was decisive in round two. With Jabouin perhaps in the lead after scoring the more powerful strikes (most notably several spinning back fists and elbows), Hominick downed his opponent with a powerful punch to the liver. Jabouin weathered the storm, however, and proceeded to drop Hominick with a strike of his own. With Jabouin now looking to be in the driver's seat, Hominick pulled out a sweep and was able to finish Jabouin through ground-and-pound. Though the fight didn't have the same electric feel that pervaded many of the more significant fights in this list, it was both exciting and technically brilliant.

*****

#4 - Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin (UFC 116)

After demolishing Frank Mir to avenge his only loss, Brock Lesnar seemed like an unstoppable force. Enter Shane Carwin. Going into an interim title fight with Mir as a slight underdog, Carwin gave Mir a similar brutal beatdown and seemed like an unstoppable force himself. This set up - literally - the biggest heavyweight title fight in UFC history, with both fighters being mega-hulks who cut weight to reach the 265 lb weight limit. The question going into the fight was whether Lesnar's explosive takedowns would trump Carwin's powerful punches. Early in round one, Carwin was able to easily brush off a Lesnar takedown attempt, and for the rest of the round, Carwin laid the smackdown on the former WWE superstar, forcing Lesnar to curl up against the cage. At so many points in the first round, it seemed like the fight was just about to be stopped, but Lesnar was able to use his massive forearms to protect his head and stay in the fight. Despite utterly dominating round one, Carwin had his infamous incident of "lactic acidosis," gassing himself out from all the punching he performed. In round two, Lesnar looked fresh while Carwin was clearly out of steam. Lesnar quickly secured a takedown, passed to mount, and locked in an arm triangle choke to put away the challenger, shock the viewers, and win over many of his former detractors. It wasn't long after that Lesnar would lose his title and aura of invincibility to Cain Velasquez, but regardless, this fight had an electric atmosphere to it that was only matched in 2010 by another certain UFC title fight that would occur about a month later.

*****

#3 - Jorge Santiago vs. Kazuo Misaki II (Sengoku 14)

While the Sengoku championships are not really as highly regarded as those of other larger organizations, who can complain when a great fight goes into the fourth and fifth rounds instead of being stopped after the third? In this case, Sengoku's middleweight champion Jorge Santiago and challenger Kazuo Misaki fought a technical battle that later exploded into an action-fest. While Santiago seemed to have the advantage in the striking department, Misaki was able to take down the Brazilian repeatedly, utilize some ground and pound, and lock in some submission attempts that may have put away fighters not as determined and skilled at jiu-jitsu as Santiago. The first three rounds had some solid technical action, with the first two rounds probably going to Misaki and the third to Santiago. In the fourth, Misaki started beating down the champion, who had to deliberately fall out of the ring to stall for time, resulting in a red card and point deduction. At this point, it was clear that Santiago would need a finish to successfully defend his belt. With seconds left in the fourth round, Santiago landed some great strikes that stunned his foe, then completely took over the fifth round and battered Misaki until the challenger's corner threw in the towel with less than a minute remaining in the fight. This fight had the most energetic crowd I have ever seen at a Japanese MMA event - the Japanese fans are notorious for largely staying silent during fights, as opposed to the American crowd who like to create as much noise as possible. However, this fight was so awesome that the crowd was going wild and chanting, especially in the later rounds.

*****

#2 - Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen (UFC 117)

UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva was at the time considered the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world, and was making quick work of his opponents over the past several years, but in a fashion that caused much of the MMA fan base to lose respect for him. Chael Sonnen, who not that much earlier wasn't even really in the title picture, was the next unlikely challenger for the belt in a middleweight division that lacked a clear cut number two fighter. With his pre-fight interview antics and trash talk, Sonnen made an intriguing situation out of a matchup that many might have otherwise ignored. Come fight night, Sonnen backed up his talk by completely dominating the champion for four and a half rounds, taking him down at will and even outstriking him, which was extremely surprising considering Sonnen's wrestling background and the fact that no other fighter could stand with Silva. Never was such a one-sided fight so entertaining, and Sonnen's trash talk and energy was probably the reason it was that entertaining. (When Sonnen pulled off a kind of somersault in the first round, you know s*** just got real.) With less than three minutes to go, it looked like the end of an era, but in perhaps an homage to his Brazilian jiu-jitsu instructor Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Silva was able to pull off a submission after having sustained a thorough beating. This submission left me frozen in a state of bemusement for several minutes. While the champion was proven to be vulnerable, he showed the heart of a true champion in pulling off the win, while Sonnen also proved that he can back up his talk.

*****

#1 - Leonard Garcia vs. Chan Sung Jung (WEC 48)

This featherweight battle, which was shown for free on Spike as a prelim for WEC's pay-per-view event was fifteen full minutes of sloppy yet ridiculously awesome back-and-forth standup action. For the entire bout, both fighters were swinging at full strength with punches, kicks, knees, and even throwing in some of the crazier techniques like spinning back fists and wheel kicks. The fight was close, with both Garcia and Jung having their moments and with both fighters getting dropped repeatedly and in general getting severely beaten up. You probably couldn't go ten seconds at any point in the fight without seeing some sort of ridiculous action, whether it was both guys swinging wildly at the air or one of them blocking punches with their face. The most memorable part of the fight for me was when a wild exchange knocked Garcia's mouthpiece out of his mouth, which forced a time out. I couldn't help but go crazy when immediately after Garcia put his mouthpiece back on, the two fighters began flailing at each other again as if the timeout hadn't happened at all. In the end, Garcia won a split decision in the controversial manner that has become associated with Garcia's name, and while neither man displayed elite-level technique, they put an incredible display of recklessness and heart, and most importantly put on one of the most purely entertaining fights of all time.

UFC 121 Preview

2010-10-21T03:01:00.001-04:00

Well, my last set of predictions were just horrible, but whatever - what's MMA without the element of surprise? Anyway, this Saturday's UFC 121 features a heavyweight championship fight between Brock Lesnar and Cain Velasquez, and out of the four other fights on the main card, I think three of them are great matchups despite the betting odds (only fight I'm not so stoked for is Hamill-Ortiz). The event is definitely too huge to not preview, so here we go again! Hopefully I do better with my picks this time.

Note: New to this edition of my previews is fighter rankings, which are relative to their weight class (or classes, for fighters like Diego Sanchez or Jake Shields who are transitioning between weight classes). Rankings are from Bloody Elbow, which compiles subjective rankings from multiple sources.

*****

Heavyweight Bout

Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

Fighter Profiles

Brendan Schaub (6-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) is the runner-up of season 10 of The Ultimate Fighter, and is being built as a rising star in the division. Schaub is without a doubt athletic, having made the practice squad for the Buffalo Bills. However, he is still relatively new to professional MMA. Schaub's striking is not technically sharp, nor is he great at takedown defense. However, he makes up for these deficiencies through his punching power and scrambling ability. Schaub can easily find himself in bad situations but has the ability to always get back to his feet and end anyone's night on any given moment.

(#13) Gabriel Gonzaga (11-5 MMA, 7-4 UFC, 3-2 last five) has found an unfortunate role as a gatekeeper for the heavyweight division, making quick work of lesser talents but not finding success against the top fighters in the division. Gonzaga is probably most dangerous as a grappler, but he rarely tries to take the game to the ground. Instead, he tends to make his bouts striking matches. Gonzaga is still formidable as a striker, but tends to get himself into troublesome situations. Gonzaga's weight of about 255 lbs does translate into a respectable amount of power, but at that weight, it is unsurprising that his cardio is not impressive. As his fights enter the later rounds, Gonzaga tires and finds himself more and more vulnerable.

Pre-fight Analysis

Skill-wise, Gonzaga trumps Schaub in almost all departments. However, his weaknesses are his mental game and physical conditioning, and these factors are what give Schaub a good chance of pulling out the win. History dictates that this fight will take place largely on the feet. Despite Gonzaga's excellent grappling skills, he will likely want to stand and bang. Additionally, Schaub will probably be able to scramble back to his feet, which may frustrate his opponent. The later this fight goes, the more the cards favor the better athlete in Schaub. Therefore, for Gonzaga to win, he will either have to score a quick knockout or submission, or pick Schaub apart enough early on to affect his performance in the later rounds. Meanwhile, Schaub's path to victory will either be the knockout punch, or a decision or late round TKO as Gonzaga wears down. Both fighters have the ability to knock out their opponent with a single strike, and even if only for this, the odds for the fight should be closer than they are. Schaub has more than just a punch's chance to win this fight, but Gonzaga's advantages early in the fight should not be dismissed. I'll pick Gonzaga to win early, but I do like Schaub's chances.

Prediction: Gonzaga by TKO (strikes, Round 1)

Approximate Betting Odds: +160 (37%) Schaub, -200 (63%) Gonzaga

Betting Recommendation: On paper, Gonzaga is the better fighter, but he does have the tendency to disappoint, and Schaub's knockout power is a big plus. Small play on Schaub.

*****

Light Heavyweight Bout

Tito Ortiz vs. Matt Hamill

Fighter Profiles

(#23) Tito Ortiz (15-7-1 MMA, 14-7-1 UFC, 1-3-1 last five) was once a dominant force in the UFC light heavyweight division, reigning as champion for more than two years. However, he is now seemingly just a shadow of his old self, falling victim to repeated injuries, and not having won a fight since 2006. "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" used his energetic ground and pound to dominate the division many years ago, but over the years his athleticism has declined, and his injuries take their toll on his conditioning as well. Additionally, while other fighters have been evolving their games, Tito Ortiz is still just Tito Ortiz.

(#18) Matt Hamill (9-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC, 4-1 last five) is most known for being the inspirational guy who overcame his deafness to become one of the UFC's top light heavyweights. Although Hamill comes from a wrestling background, his MMA game is the definition of all-around. Hamill participated in season 3 of The Ultimate Fighter and was actually coached by Tito Ortiz himself on the show. Hamill does not have an explosive game - he prefers to stalk his opponent. While Hamill eats some shots this way, he has a formidable enough striking game to compete against much of the division on the feet, and his iron chin keeps him out of trouble.

Pre-fight Analysis

We have a matchup between two wrestlers, and much of the time, the wrestling cancels out, turning the fight into a standup battle. I don't expect much of the fight to be spent on the ground, although both fighters will try their luck at a shot, especially later in the rounds to try to sway the judges. Hamill should be the better striker, and thus it will likely be Tito going in for more takedown attempts, especially because his MMA game plans continue to be one-dimensionally based on ground and pound. For the most part, these shots from both fighters should be unsuccessful, though one man might play the percentage game and find success after many tries. Because on the feet both fighters are rather tough to finish and not consistently devastating finishers, a decision is likely unless someone gets a takedown early in the round. I'd bet on the fight staying on the feet for the most part, possibly with Ortiz getting a takedown to steal one of the rounds. For the most part, though, it should be Hamill's night, especially since just as in his other recent fights, Ortiz is not likely to show up at 100%.

Prediction: Hamill by decision

Approximate Betting Odds: +145 (39%) Ortiz, -175 (61%) Hamill

Betting Recommendation: Ortiz's line is being inflated by his name, and honestly, he should not be fighting anymore. Moderate play on Hamill.

*****

Welterweight Bout

Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago

Fighter Profiles

Diego Sanchez (21-4 MMA, 10-4 UFC, 3-2 last five) is one of the winners of the original Ultimate Fighter and well-known for his cardio, iron chin, and relentless offense (as well as his "yus!" cartwheels). His technique is not fantastic and has not really evolved throughout the years to keep up with the improving competition. However, he had for a while remained successful if only for his conditioning and energy. After getting destroyed by then-lightweight champion BJ Penn, Sanchez moved back up to welterweight, where he was manhandled by John Hathaway. The UFC welterweight division is not as deep as its lightweight division, but Sanchez needs to deal with bigger opponents who punch harder and are more difficult to take down. Sanchez's inability to take down John Hathaway was discouraging, especially in light of Hathaway's recent loss to Mike Pyle, but Sanchez did not look like himself, so that fight may have been a fluke. Unfortunately for him, things don't get any easier for him, with the UFC giving him arguably a tougher opponent in Paulo Thiago.

(#9) Paulo Thiago (13-2 MMA, 3-2 UFC, 3-2 last five) remains an enigma in the UFC welterweight division after finishing top-tier fighters Josh Koscheck and Mike Swick but getting manhandled by Martin Kampmann in his most recent fight. Strangely, he is considered to be both vastly overrated and vastly underrated at the same time. Thiago's striking is ugly but effective - I guess you could say this is what one might expect from a fighter who is in the special police force. Thiago has black belts in judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but his groundwork in the MMA context has not been too impressive, and he hasn't been able to do much off his back against less seasoned grapplers. Also fitting of the police force persona is an iron man fighting style. Thiago has never been finished, he is not one to back down mentally, and he stalks his opponent, forcing them to remain active at all times.

Pre-fight Analysis

On the feet, Sanchez is not likely to find success, and he might find himself getting lit up just like in his fight against BJ Penn. Sanchez may be able to squeeze some strikes in through pure speed and energy alone, though at welterweight, Sanchez's speed is diminished. Additionally, because neither fighter is likely to knock out their opponent with a small volume of strikes, whoever is losing the standup battle should look to quickly take the fight to the ground. In the most likely scenario, Sanchez will be the one looking for the takedown, and whether he can score some and keep Thiago on the ground while avoiding submissions is completely up to speculation. Sanchez's shot won't have the same explosiveness as it did at lightweight and his wrestling in his last match was unimpressive. However, Thiago has been shown to be vulnerable to the takedown and top control even against non-elite wrestlers. Because both fighters are notorious for being incredibly difficult to finish, I'll predict a decision, and I foresee Thiago outpointing Sanchez on the feet. Sanchez may be able to steal the decision with his wrestling, but how good his wrestling will be is a gigantic X-factor.

Prediction: Thiago by decision

Approximate Betting Odds: Even Sanchez (47%), -130 (53%) Thiago

Betting Recommendation: Sanchez's last fight may have just been a fluke, and Paulo Thiago is still a mystery. No bet.

*****

Welterweight Bout

Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann

Fighter Profiles

(#10) Jake Shields (25-4-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC, 5-0 last five) finally enters the UFC after having cleaned out the welterweight and middleweight divisions of several other organizations. After climbing high in the middleweight rankings (largely due to a lack of competition in Strikeforce at welterweight), Shields moves back down to welterweight as a potential challenger to UFC champion Georges St-Pierre. As of right now his middleweight ranking is #4, and his ranking of #10 at welterweight is only so low because he has not fought in the division for a long time. Shields has never been known for his striking, but his wrestling and jiu-jitsu are extremely effective. Shields has not looked invincible during his 14-fight win streak, but he has always been able to use his grappling and strong will as neutralizers. While his shoot is not particularly explosive, he usually manages to get the fight to the ground through technique and persistence. On the ground, Shields is an elite positional grappler, having the uncanny ability to get to mount at will. His ground and pound is notorious for lacking power, being more of a pitter-patter than damaging. However, the last two decision victories against Dan Henderson and Jason Miller are more exceptions than rule, as Shields typically finishes fights through TKO or submission despite his lack of pure power.

(#7) Martin Kampmann (17-3 MMA, 8-2 UFC, 4-1 last five) was one fight away from a title shot before getting knocked out by Paul Daley. After another impressive run, Kampmann now finds himself one or two wins away from getting that title shot. As a fighter, Kampmann is a dangerous striker, having long limbs and the muay thai background to effectively use them. Also like other fighters with lanky builds, Kampmann's chokes are dangerous. Overall, though, Kampmann is more of an all-around fighter with no major weaknesses, and who has enough of a skill set to be effective in many situations and against different types of opponents, while not relying too much on one particular aspect of his game. In particular, Kampmann looked extremely impressive in his most recent fight, where he manhandled Paulo Thiago and won a decision convincingly by out-pointing Thiago on the feet, as well as mixing in some takedowns and working his ground and pound while avoiding submissions.

Pre-fight Analysis

Two big questions will determine how this fight will play out. First, will Martin Kampmann be able to avoid the takedown? While Kampmann showed off his offensive wrestling against Paulo Thiago, we didn't really get to see how his takedown defense has improved. He has certainly worked a lot on takedown defense, but much of the time, no amount of work will save you from getting taken down by a great grappler (who made quick work wrestling-wise of the Olympic-level wrestler Dan Henderson). If Jake Shields is able to end up on top of Kampmann, Shields will have a great chance of finishing the fight, and it will be up to Kampmann to somehow work his way out or - more likely - try to merely survive the round. Second, will Martin Kampmann be able to use his striking effectively enough to make up for Jake Shields's takedown ability? There is no question that Kampmann is the better striker of the two and that Shields's objective will be to go for the takedown. Fortunately for Kampmann, Shields's takedowns are more based on technique than explosiveness. This will give Kampmann a little more leeway to land strikes while maintaining distance. We've already seen Shields rocked by Dan Henderson, and there is also a very real possibility of Kampmann stunning the UFC newcomer. We've already seen Shields work his way out of a rough situation against a much bigger man with one-punch knockout power, so Kampmann will certainly have to unleash a string of solid hits to finish Shields and avoid the takedown. Alternatively, Kampmann can opt to play the distance game and try to out-point Shields to a decision victory. In the end, I think Shields will get those takedowns and will have a good chance of finishing Kampmann after getting mount. Kampmann is definitely a good underdog pick though and has a great chance of getting the win.

Prediction: Shields by submission (rear naked choke, Round 2)

Approximate Betting Odds: -260 (69%) Shields, +210 (31%) Kampmann

Betting Recommendation: Shields is the rightful favorite, but he is new to the elite ranks of the UFC, and Kampmann is by no means an easy test. Small play on Kampmann.

*****

Heavyweight Championship Bout

Brock Lesnar (Champ) vs. Cain Velasquez

Fighter Profiles

(#1) Brock Lesnar (5-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) is relatively new to MMA but already fights like a true champion, having won the UFC heavyweight championship by defeating Randy Couture, then defending it twice against Frank Mir and Shane Carwin. The former WWE star is also a former NCAA Division I wrestling champion and uses his wrestling to smother his opponents. Lesnar walks at around 285 lbs, cutting weight to reach the 265 lb weight limit. However, his size is essentially pure muscle, and for a big man, Lesnar's explosiveness and athleticism is incredible. Lesnar's striking is rudimentary but powerful, and in his last fight, he proved that he can take quite a beating. If Lesnar ends up on top of his opponent, he will use his weight to prevent them from escaping, and has the ability to do a large amount of damage without giving his opponent much space at all.

(#3) Cain Velasquez (8-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC, 5-0 last five) has made a meteoric rise to the top of the UFC heavyweight division. Also a high-level collegiate wrestler, Velasquez has relied largely on his wrestling to dominate his opponents. However, he has also shown a very great improvement in the striking department. Velasquez's chin is questionable, as he has been dazed on several occasions, and his ground and pound, much like that of a certain Jake Shields, is more about volume punching than power punching. At roughly 235 lbs, Velasquez gives up a lot of size to many of the other fighters in the weight class, but he makes up for this disadvantage with explosiveness and an endless gas tank. While many other heavyweights are very dangerous in the first round and fade in the later stages, Velasquez is able to carry out an all out attack for the entirety of at least a three-round fight.

Pre-fight Analysis

There are so many questions leading into this fight. Can Lesnar take down Velasquez? Can Velasquez take down Lesnar? Does Lesnar have the cardio to go a full five rounds? Can Cain survive Lesnar's ground and pound should he end up on bottom? The fight starts on the feet so let's start there. Lesnar's striking is more powerful but Cain's should be quicker and more technical. If Lesnar connects with a sold punch, it will likely be goodnight for Velasquez. Likewise, Lesnar was sent curling up after a few shots from Shane Carwin. Fortunately for the champ, Cain Velasquez does not pack the same power than Carwin does. However, Lesnar may see himself eating more strikes than he ever has before. If the fight hits the ground, then whoever is on top has the clear advantage, and the man on bottom will try his best to get the fight back on the feet. Lesnar can easily get a stoppage win from a knockout punch, or by getting into Cain's half-guard, where the smaller Velasquez will have little chance of escaping. For Velasquez, his path to victory will more likely be wearing the champ down to get a decision or a late-round TKO. If Cain gets Brock to the ground - whether it be through striking or wrestling - he will have to be much smarter about his ground and pound than Shane Carwin was. I will have to go with the heart pick here (can anyone say Frankie Edgar vs. BJ Penn?) and choose Cain Velasquez to avoid Lesnar's takedowns and secure the victory by wearing down the champion through striking before getting a late-round takedown or knockdown and sealing the win with ground and pound.

Prediction: Velasquez by TKO (strikes, Round 4)

Approximate Betting Odds: -155 (58%) Lesnar, +125 (42%) Velasquez

Betting Recommendation: Same betting strategy as with the rest of Lesnar's fights. No play.

*****

My Official Fantasy Bets (Main Card)

100 points on Brendan Schaub at +160 to win 160 points
280 points on Matt Hamill at -175 to win 160 points
50 points on Martin Kampmann at +210 to win 105 points

Max win: 425 points
Max loss: 430 points

UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs. Palhares Predictions

2010-09-10T20:25:00.001-04:00

So I went a measly 3-2 in my predictions for UFC 118 (well, 5-2 if you include both my correct picks for the Spike TV card, which weren't included in my write-up), though I ended up well in the money in my fantasy betting scheme. The next big MMA event is UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs. Palhares, which will be shown free on Spike TV on Wednesday, 9/15 at 7 PM (central time). This event will lead immediately into the premiere of The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs. Team Koscheck, which marks the twelfth season of the show and will feature lightweights.

As usual, the Fight Night features many lightweights who are just a notch below the UFC's upper echelon. The division is extremely deep, and many of these fighters would be pushed down the card on a PPV event. The match-ups are great, though, and all of the televised fights should be fun and exciting in some way.

*****

Lightweight Bout

Ross Pearson vs. Cole Miller

Fighter Profiles

Ross Pearson (11-3 MMA, 3-0 UFC, 4-1 last five) is best known as the winner of season 9 of The Ultimate Fighter, and over the last year he has been establishing himself as a potential top-tier lightweight. Pearson has a stalking style that gives his opponent little space to maneuver. He has great technical boxing, muay thai, and striking defense, and his knees from the thai plum are lethal. However, the rest of his clinch game is unspectacular despite his background in judo, and his base is largely untested, as he has not yet faced any of the lightweight division's plethora of wrestlers.

Cole Miller (16-4 MMA, 5-2 UFC, 3-2 last five) is riding a five-fight streak where his three wins have all been by submission and his two losses have both been by knockout. And that's pretty much the deal with Cole Miller, whose striking is unimpressive, but is complemented by an ability to pull off a submission out of nowhere. Miller does not yet have a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but his grappling game is very effective in an MMA context, and his long, skinny limbs are dangerous when it comes into sinking in chokes. Unfortunately, his wins as of late have come against fellow grapplers, while his track record against strikers is not so great.

Pre-fight Analysis

Pearson's style is Miller's kryptonite, and if Pearson plays it smart, he should be able to get the win by knockout with aggressive play or riding out a dominating decision. Even in the clinch, Pearson's game works towards thai plum or judo takedowns as opposed to the standard wrestling double-leg takedown. This style of clinch game should keep Pearson out of danger when it comes to falling into submissions while attempting a takedown. Miller's game plan will have to involve getting the fight to the ground somehow, but he is not known for his takedowns, and Pearson's grappling experience should be enough to stifle that strategy.

Prediction: Pearson by TKO (strikes, Round 2)

Approximate Betting Odds: -280 (70%) Pearson, +210 (30%) Miller

Betting Recommendation: I don't think Miller's chances of pulling off a submission are good enough to give him a +210 line or anything close. Moderate play on Pearson.

*****

Lightweight Bout

Jim Miller vs. Gleison Tibau

Fighter Profiles

Jim Miller (17-2 MMA, 6-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) has a very impressive résumé, with his only losses coming from lightweight champ Frankie Edgar and #1 contender Gray Maynard. His credentials would have you think that he's just another one of those NCAA Division I wrestlers who picked up Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to get into MMA, but he's actually much more of an all-around fighter and his wrestling is actually perhaps even underutilized. Miller's striking won't set off fireworks, but his deliberate style is very effective and packs some power. If the fight does hit the ground, Miller will take control and look for submissions as opposed to riding it out like many wrestlers do.

Gleison Tibau (21-6 MMA, 7-4 UFC, 4-1 last five) is somewhat of a gatekeeper in the lightweight division, destroying lesser opponents like Caol Uno and Josh Neer while coming up short against the division's top tier fighters. He is notorious for the tremendous weights at which he arrives on fight night, and yet his physical conditioning never seems to be affected by these cuts. His size has pretty much been his biggest advantage, though this is not to take away from his great all-around game, which features heavy punches and huge takedowns.

Pre-fight Analysis

Miller and Tibau are fighters with styles that are largely similar in that they are all-around fighters as opposed to specialists in one area. However, Miller is a more technical fighter while Tibau is all about power. Miller will try to fight smart, and Tibau will try to make the fight anything but a smart one. On the feet, Miller probably has the advantage overall, but is always in danger of getting hit by a huge punch from Tibau. On the ground, whoever is on top will have the advantage, and in this case I believe Tibau is more likely to take down Miller than vice versa. Miller is the odds-on favorite likely due to his more sexy record, but at this point to me it's a coin toss (though if they were to fight 100 times I believe one of them would probably win at least 65 of those). It has the potential to be a very exciting fight, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the opposite was the case. The one thing that makes me lean toward Tibau is Miller's previous victory against Mark Bocek (a fight many feel that Miller lost), where Miller was taken down several times and his weaknesses were exposed. I'll look for Tibau to go for the takedowns and maintain pressure on his opponent to snag the decision.

Prediction: Tibau by decision

Approximate Betting Odds: -170 Miller (60%), +140 (40%) Tibau

Betting Recommendation: This is an extremely hard fight to predict, but I think at the very least the odds favor Miller much more than they should. Small play on Tibau.

*****

Lightweight Bout

Efrain Escudero vs. Charles Oliveira

Fighter Profiles

Efrain Escudero (13-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) is the lightweight winner of Season 8 of The Ultimate Fighter and had an undefeated MMA record until a loss in early 2010 to rising star Evan Dunham. Escudero is an all-around fighter who can play to his opponents' weaknesses, though in his loss against Dunham, he perhaps had too much confidence in his jiu-jitsu, which should have been a no-no against a grappling specialist. Escudero has a good combination of speed and power on the feet, as well as a background in wrestling.

Charles Oliveira (13-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC, 5-0 last five) made a meteoric rise to UFC notoriety after pulling off a beautiful armbar in his previous fight against Darren Elkins immediately after being taken down. With that being the only fight in a major MMA organization on Oliveira's résumé, it's tough to judge how strong the remainder of his MMA skill set is. His speed and ground skills are already evident, but we await to see how good his striking and takedown abilities are at the UFC level.

Pre-fight Analysis

We all saw what happened when someone had the game plan of taking Oliveira to the ground. Surely Escudero will be interested in keeping the fight on the feet, especially since Oliveira's previous win and Escudero's only loss have both been by armbar. The quality of Oliveira's striking is yet to be seen, and if Oliveira ends up out-striking Escudero, he will likely use the strikes to set up a takedown and submission. However, Escudero is no easy opponent on the feet, and I am not so inclined to think that the jiu-jitsu specialist from the minor leagues will be winning the striking battle. Instead, I expect Oliveira to go for takedowns. Again, we don't know how good the Brazilian is at getting the fight to the ground, and Escudero has certainly worked on his defensive wrestling in preparation for this match. Escudero needs to fight carefully to avoid the risk of a takedown, so I don't think he will be landing strikes in volume. However, his power should be enough to keep Oliveira off kilter for the whole fight and possibly even score a knockout.

Prediction: Escudero by decision

Approximate Betting Odds: -190 (62.5%) Escudero, +155 (37.5%) Oliveira

Betting Recommendation: This line is certainly affected by overreaction to recent performances by both fighters and sway the line towards Oliveira more than it probably should. Oliveira's chances are not insignificant, though, and he may actually be as good as we think. Small play on Escudero.

*****

Middleweight Bout

Nate Marquardt vs. Rousimar Palhares

Fighter Profiles

Nate Marquardt (29-9-2 MMA, 8-3 UFC, 3-2 last five) is only 31 years old but is one of the most experienced fighters in MMA after being King of Pancrase in the days of the UFC's infancy. Throughout his career he has been among the top middleweights, and he was one fight away from a second shot at middleweight champion Anderson Silva before losing a decision to Chael Sonnen. Marquardt's main background is in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but his striking is no joke, and he recently had a run of three straight knockout wins in the UFC, most famously making quick work of Demian Maia in just 21 seconds.

Rousimar Palhares (11-2 MMA, 4-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) is perhaps one of the most feared fighters in the middleweight division, and this is not so much because of his overall skill as much as his proficiency in the most dangerous legal move in jiu-jitsu - the heel hook. An incredible six out of Palhares's eleven wins have come via heel hook. The rest of his jiu-jitsu game is strong as well, and as opposed to positional grappling, Palhares will try to find the submission from any position. Palhares is built like a tank, but this is also partly because he is rather short for the middleweight division. He gives up reach against most of the division, and thus has an intrinsic disadvantage in the striking department.

Pre-fight Analysis

Obviously, Palhares is very dangerous if he gets a hold of a leg (or any limb for that matter). However, Marquardt should have the grappling skills to avoid being caught in a submission. If it's Marquardt dictating the fight - and I expect that to be the case - the fight should stay on the feet. Even though Marquardt is not exactly the biggest middleweight, he will still have roughly a three-inch reach advantage over Palhares, and should use this effectively on the feet. Marquardt will likely play it safe, staying out of grappling range. I foresee him using his more effective striking and his reach advantage to pick Palhares apart on the feet. Naturally, Palhares will try to close the distance to initiate a grappling game, but Marquardt's grappling should be good enough to defend takedown and submission attempts, and to push Palhares back into striking range.

Prediction: Marquardt by decision

Approximate Betting Odds: -240 (67%) Marquardt, +190 (33%) Palhares

Betting Recommendation: I'd like to say that the line is good for a small play on Marquardt, but I don't feel too good about it, so as a conservative (fantasy) bettor, I'm staying away.

*****

My Official Fantasy Bets (Main Card)

199 points on Ross Pearson at -280 to win 71 points
125 points on Gleison Tibau at +140 to win 175 points
76 points on Efrain Escudero at -190 to win 40 points

Max win: 286 points
Max loss: 400 points

UFC 118 Predictions

2010-08-27T01:19:00.001-04:00

UFC is heading to Boston for the first time this Saturday, and it's got a stacked card. That, along with the great run UFC's had over the summer (115, 116, and 117 were phenomenal events) means I'm back in the MMA writing deal. Here's some pre-fight commentary and predictions for the five fights on the main card (note that two preliminary fights will be shown for free on Spike TV immediately before the pay-per-view).

In the order the bouts will be contested:

*****

Welterweight Bout

Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis

Fighter Profiles

Nate Diaz (12-5 MMA, 7-3 UFC, 2-3 last five) is entering his second fight after his move up from lightweight, where he was having a not-so-great run in a deep division. His last bout was technically at middleweight when his opponent failed to make welterweight, but Diaz used crisp striking to get the TKO win. Diaz has a reach of 76", which was huge for the lightweight division and at welterweight is still respectable. Like his brother Nick, Nate prefers the strategy of light punches in volume, rather than winding up for the heavy hits. However, at welterweight, his striking does have a little more oomph to it, from his not having to cut so much weight. Diaz's main strength remains his jiu-jitsu, and his lankiness is ideal the submission game.

Marcus Davis (17-6 MMA, 9-4 UFC, 3-2 last five) comes from a boxing background, having amassed a 17-1-2 professional boxing record before making the permanent transition to MMA. Davis is by all means a scrapper, and would easily take a hit in order to land one of his own. As a result of this, his style is often sloppy. In addition, when you consider his boxing career and his MMA career, Davis has taken a lot of hits, and at the age of 37 those hits have likely taken a big toll on his ability to absorb damage. Still, Davis's knockout power must still be respected, and that alone keeps him in contention for any fight.

Pre-fight Analysis

Diaz has a six-inch reach advantage on Davis and always uses his reach advantage well, even when taking into account Davis's background in boxing. On the other hand, Davis's power means that he can score the knockout even if he is being outclassed. If Diaz takes the smartest route, he will try to take the fight to the ground, either through a takedown or more easily by pulling guard. This area is where Diaz has the clear advantage. However, both Diaz brothers have had a history of wanting to stand and bang despite their proficiency in Gracie jiu-jitsu. Davis will certainly want to keep the fight on the feet, and I have the feeling Diaz will comply. I think Diaz will still be better on the feet though, working his way to a decision victory, although we may see Davis trying a desperation takedown and getting caught in a choke.

Prediction: Nate Diaz by decision

Betting Recommendation: Diaz should win this fight 4 times out of 5. This warrants a moderate play on Diaz at -250 or better.

*****

Lightweight Bout

Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard

Fighter Profiles

Kenny Florian (14-4 MMA, 11-3 UFC, 4-1 last five) has improved constantly and greatly throughout his stint in the UFC and is now one of the most complete fighters in the sport. Florian has a background in jiu-jitsu and muay thai and has successfully incorporated these styles into a complete MMA game. With the exception of his fight against BJ Penn, Florian comes into his fights with great game plans, which typically use striking to set up a late takedown, leading into a submission (almost always by rear naked choke). In addition, Florian's elbow strikes are notorious for causing cuts, which can mess up any opponent's game plan.

Gray Maynard (9-0 (1 NC) MMA, 7-0 (1 NC) UFC, 5-0 last five) is a wrestler-boxer with a very deliberate style that has led to six straight decision victories in the UFC. However, this conservative approach has also resulted in a record whose only blemish is a no contest from an odd incident in his first bout in the UFC. Maynard knocked himself out while taking down his opponent, but this takedown also injured his opponent, forcing him to submit at the same time - resulting in a no contest.

Pre-fight Analysis

Florian was able to beat up wrestler Clay Guida enough to take the fight to the ground, but the more credentialed Maynard will be more difficult to bring down - especially because he won't get hit as much as Guida usually does. Maynard will likely spend the first round on his feet trying to beat Florian in a standup war. I expect Florian to get the better of Maynard on the feet, and I expect the fight to hit the ground after the first round - either by Maynard's will as he tries to win the remaining two rounds, or by Florian's as his striking makes Maynard more susceptible to the takedown. Florian is very dangerous on the ground, even from the bottom, where he uses elbow strikes to inflict a lot of damage. If Florian finds himself on top (through a takedown or a sweep), it's game over. Maynard actually has a decent chance of pulling out the decision victory, as long as he slows the pace down enough to look to outpoint Florian on the feet. But I think Florian will win the fight, though I can't decide whether he'll get his trademark rear naked choke within the 15 minute time period or will settle for the decision. I'll flip a coin to decide.

Prediction: Kenny Florian by submission (rear naked choke, Round 3)

Betting Recommendation: -175/+150 looks like an accurate line. No bet.

*****

Middleweight Bout

Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda

Fighter Profiles

Demian Maia (12-2 MMA, 6-2 UFC, 3-2 last five) is a jiu-jitsu world champion, and is not afraid to pull guard or even half-guard on his opponents. He is a huge step above even other Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts in the division, and his groundwork is elegant and a pleasure to watch. However, his striking game is very limited both in terms of technique and power, and in an MMA context he is not the best at getting the fight to the ground. Because of his lack of takedown power, Maia often finds himself doing the butt scoot to try to grab a hold of a leg and drag his opponent down - not the safest technique. However, once the fight is on the ground, it's just a matter of time before Maia pulls off the submission.

Mario Miranda (12-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) has a background in Brazilian jiu-jitsu but has actually won more fights by knockout than by submission. To be honest, I am not too familiar with Miranda, who is making his main card debut as a last-minute replacement for Alan Belcher. Thus, my analysis will be slightly based on assumptions regarding Miranda's skills.

Pre-fight Analysis

Maia's three most recent fights don't spell well for him. He was unable to take down Anderson Silva (who was subsequently taken down at will by Chael Sonnen), and two fights before that he was knocked out quickly by Nate Marquardt, who is more renowned as a grappler than as a striker. In between those fights was an unimpressive decision victory over Dan Miller that stayed on the feet. Miranda should have the advantage in the striking department, and Maia will need to take the fight to the ground. The outcome of the fight will depend on whether or not this happens. Miranda is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and should be able to avoid getting trapped in guard. I see Maia most likely meeting a similar fate as in his fight with Marquardt, but you can never know what tricks Maia has up his sleeve (example: Maia vs. Chael Sonnen).

Prediction: Mario Miranda by TKO (punches, Round 2)

Betting Recommendation: -200/+160 seems slightly in favor of a play on Miranda, but there are too many factors in play and the risk is high. I suggest no bet on this one, though a small play on Miranda is justified if you are a high-risk bettor.

*****

Heavyweight Bout

Randy Couture vs. James Toney

Fighter Profiles

Randy Couture (18-10 MMA, 15-7 UFC, 3-2 last five) has a record that makes him look worse than he actually is, and this is because until recently, almost all of his fights were championship fights against all the best fighters the UFC had to offer in two weight classes. Even at the age of 47, Couture is in shape and relies on a Greco-Roman wrestling base that does not require a lot of speed to execute successfully. Couture is also a very smart fighter and knows what he should and shouldn't be doing at his age and against any opponent.

James Toney (0-0 MMA) is a professional boxer who has pestered UFC president Dana White enough to convince him to set up this match. Toney is looking to make some bucks after his disappearance from relevance in the world of boxing. The former boxing great should still have the best boxing and the best chin in MMA. However, boxers in MMA are notorious for having poor footwork when it comes to defending kicks and takedowns. Toney is brand new to MMA and may have learned the basics of all the relevant concepts - however, he will still absolutely be relying on his punching power to score any win in this sport.

Pre-fight Analysis

James Toney is brand new to MMA and there is no way he will be able to compete with a high-level wrestler once the distance is closed. Toney's only hope for winning is by the so-called "puncher's chance." He might catch Randy as he is trying to close distance and drop him with a single punch, or he might have even developed enough footwork to keep the fight at a distance for a little bit. Couture's strategy is no secret - take Toney down, then either pound him out or submit him. Couture is smart enough to be able to successfully do this any time he wants. However, Toney's boxing technique, pure power, and Randy's increasingly fragile chin could spell disaster for the UFC hall of famer. Slim chance though.

Prediction: Randy Couture by submission (rear naked choke, Round 1)

Betting Recommendation: James Toney is a huge wild card coming into the fight. He may surprise, and the pain of a Randy Couture loss may be lessened by a bit of cash inflow. Small bet on Toney at +500 or better; don't wager any more than what you're willing to lose.

*****

Lightweight Championship Bout

Frankie Edgar (Champ) vs. BJ Penn

Fighter Profiles

Frankie Edgar (12-1 MMA, 7-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) is a wrestler with an endless gas tank and a dynamic, high-energy fighting style. He is small for a lightweight, typically not even having to cut weight to make 155 lbs. However, what he lacks in size and strength, he makes up for in speed and stamina. Because of this style, Edgar's fights tend to go to decision but are exciting to watch (much like fights in the WEC 145 and 135 lb. divisions). Edgar used tricky movement and well-timed striking to earn a close decision victory over Penn at UFC 112. However, many believed that Penn should have won, and the judges' puzzling scorecards (50-45, 49-46, 48-47, all for Edgar; I scored it 48-47 Edgar) only add to the controversy.

BJ Penn (15-6-1 MMA, 11-5-1 UFC, 3-2 last five) has arguably the best boxing in the lightweight division from a combined power/technique perspective. He combines these skills with the best takedown defense in the sport - which is due to his balance and flexibility - and he even has the ability to inflict heavy damage while defending a takedown. Even if the fight hit's the ground, Penn is a world champion jiu-jitsu artist, though for some reason he always prefers to keep the fight standing. Penn's major downfall has historically been his conditioning. He has had several poor performances due to cardio issues, and he did not look so great physically in his last fight with Edgar.

Pre-fight Analysis

The previous fight between the two could have gone either way, although both times I viewed the fight, I scored it 48-47 for Edgar. BJ seemed rather listless in that fight, perhaps due to the Abu Dhabi heat in the outdoor arena. However, Frankie Edgar decisively controlled the pace of the fight, and I expect the same to be the case in the rematch. Edgar's aggressiveness caused him to fall victim to solid counterpunches from BJ, but these punches were mostly jabs that didn't cause much damage. Assuming BJ's conditioning is better leading into this fight, I expect his punches to hurt more. I think we'll see much of the same, with Edgar mixing up striking from all different angles with takedown attempts to try to keep BJ guessing. Meanwhile, BJ will try to counterpunch his way to victory, but I don't see BJ being the aggressor because of Edgar's endless gas tank. It will come down to which person is landing the better strikes that night, and while my brain says it will be BJ, I'll have to go with the heart pick and choose Frankie Edgar to retain his title through a five-round decision.

Prediction: Frankie Edgar by decision

Betting Recommendation: The odds assume that the previous fight was a fluke. Regardless, the underdog play on Edgar should still be a sound move because of the effect of BJ's popularity on his betting line. Small play on Edgar at +250 or better.

Classical Corner: Chopin's Études, Op. 25

2010-08-24T03:22:00.000-04:00

We continue where we left off last time, and now delve into Frédéric Chopin's second set of twelve études.

*****

The 'Aeolian Harp' Étude is one of the most popular ones of the set, getting its nickname from the harp-like arpeggios throughout pretty much the entire piece.

'Aeolian Harp' Étude, Op. 25, No. 1 (Pianist: Idil Biret)

From a technical perspective, the piece is great for working on proper wrist movement to reach across large intervals, and for playing melodies with just the pinky finger. The constant broken chords give the piece a very flowing nature, and if it had not been given the 'harp' moniker, I'd probably be thinking of images of water. On top of the flowing 'harp' notes is a really simple and pretty melody, and as a whole the piece has kind of an arc structure, building up to a climax before settling down again at the end.

*****

The 'Wrong Note' Étude is not one of Chopin's more popular pieces (if I was choosing these excerpts by popularity, I would have chosen the 'Butterfly Étude' (Op. 25, No. 9)), but I include the clip of it here just because it's interesting and a fun listen.

'Wrong Note' Étude, Op. 25, No. 5 (Pianist: Murray Perahia)

This étude is wonderfully written to make it sound like the pianist is playing the wrong notes - and yet all those wrong notes sound awesome. In the middle section of a piece comes a nice melody (without the wrong note theme - keep in mind that this nickname and all the nicknames for these études were not officially given to these pieces by Chopin himself). Then finally, the original theme comes back giving this piece a nice little A-B-A format. While not as complex as some of Chopin's other études, this one is interesting in its own way and probably even one of my favorites.

*****

I would call the 'Winter Wind' Étude the masterpiece of this set, combining Liszt-ian technical elements with Chopin's masterful ability to make piano music exciting and passionate. Don't be fooled by the very slow and quiet opening - this is just the calm before the huge storm of notes that barrage you for the rest of the piece.

'Winter Wind' Étude, Op. 25, No. 11 (Pianist: Grigory Sokolov)

The nickname 'Winter Wind' is immediately obvious once you listen to the piece, and I would assume that this kind of imagery was in Chopin's mind while creating this piece. Just as is the case in Chopin's famous 'Fantaisie-Impromptu,' none of the notes really make sense when you play the piece slowly - and yet when everything is put together in full speed the end product works perfectly and is indescribably awesome. Grigory Sokolov's performance in particular brings out all the fire (or should I say ice?) that Chopin intended the piece to have, all while maintaining musical clarity.

*****

Étude, Op. 25, No. 12 is sometimes nicknamed the 'Ocean' Étude, and I can see why - just like the 'Aeolian Harp' Étude, this piece is dominated by continuous runs of arpeggios. In this case though, instead of calm arpeggios we have violent ones - so in my opinion the name 'Ocean' is not quite descriptive enough. Maybe something more like 'Sea Storm,' or something that means basically the same thing but sounds a little sexier.

Étude, Op. 25, No. 12 (Pianist: Georges Cziffra)

A popular trend while playing this piece is to start a little on the quieter side and build up to a loud climax. Usually this practice would make sense, as it would give the piece development. However, in my opinion, this kind of interpretation kind of misses the point of the piece. Chopin's directions say to start loud and end very very loud. Georges Cziffra is well-known for his tendency to have completely different interpretations of pieces from everyone else - we can call this the Glenn Gould Club - and in this case he might even be in the minority by playing most of the piece loud. Some of Cziffra's interpretations are a bit weird to me but this one is right on the money. This is not to say that his interpretation is the only correct one. The writing makes this piece great either way, and it's a great way for Chopin to conclude his étude collection (I like to consider Op. 10 and Op. 25 as "Chopin's Études" while thinking of the 'Trois nouvelles études' set as a separate entity).

*****

My next four favorite in the set:

Étude, Op. 25, No. 2 - Sounds like mice scurrying, just like Étude, Op. 10, No. 2
Étude, Op. 25, No. 6 - Very difficult étude with the right hand playing two notes simultaneously for much of the piece
Étude, Op. 25, No. 7 - Sometimes nicknamed the 'Cello' Étude for its lyricism in the left hand
'Butterfly' Étude, Op. 25, No. 9 - Quick, light, and jolly melody

Just as was the case with the previous set of études, I can recommend every piece in the set, and would also suggest listening to the entire series from beginning to end, or even both sets of études back to back.

Classical Corner: Chopin's Études, Op. 10

2010-08-18T18:54:00.002-04:00

Frédéric Chopin's études are so consistently masterful that I will need to devote this edition of Classical Corner to his first set of twelve études (Opus 10), and make another post for his second set of twelve (Opus 25). In the most literal sense, an étude (which is French for 'study') is a piece intended as an exercise, to help the musician develop some kind of technique. It is then no surprise that many of Chopin's études are very difficult to play. However, while some other composers may have sacrificed musicality in order to emphasize technique (resulting in a somewhat boring end product), Chopin actually uses the difficult techniques to increase the musicality of his pieces. Many of these pieces have become very popular in the piano repertoire, and have even taken on well-known nicknames despite the fact that Chopin did not himself nickname his music. This is just a testament to how well the music speaks to the listener - that the composer did not need to tell people what it should sound like, yet listeners were able to understand.

The wavier the hair, the better the music

For purposes of shortening this entry, I will focus on four representative examples of great pieces from this set of 'Douze grandes études.' Every single piece in the opus is great, though, and all of them are really different. In other words, the entire set of études is worth a listen after you hear these four.

*****

First, let's dispel the notion that all the études are really fast, technical, blurs of notes. Many of them are indeed very fast, but Op. 10, No. 3 shows that there are other technical skills to be learned other than playing fast.

Étude, Op. 10, No. 3 (Pianist: Sviatoslav Richter)

In this case, the emphasis is on musicality - on phrasing a melody that is played primarily with the pinky of the right hand. The middle portion has an increased passion and has some moderately technical passages, but once again, the focus is on shaping the melody. In a way, this skill is required in even the most basic of pieces, but Chopin's piece emphasizes the skill enough to warrant the title of 'étude.' Additionally, this piece comes after two études that emphasize speed and dexterity in the right hand, so for the pianist playing all the études in order, this piece welcomes a nice contrast (and of course a bit of rest).

*****

Op. 10, No. 4 is probably my favorite of the set, and one reason for this is the diverse set of interpretations. Some pianists prefer a steadier pace, while others - like Vladimir Horowitz - instead opt for a more chaotic interpretation.

Étude, Op. 10, No. 4 (Pianist: Vladimir Horowitz)

This étude exercises dexterity in both hands, with fast runs being traded between both hands. Thus, the piece is difficult to execute well because both hands need to play with an equal speed, dynamic, and articulation. Speaking of dynamics, the way this piece builds up and down is amazing - and it is because of both the writing and the performance. Immediately, images of a thunderstorm come to mind when listening to this piece.

Every time someone plays this piece, a thunderstorm starts somewhere else

*****

The 'Black Key' Étude (Op. 10, No. 5) is one of the most popular of Chopin's études from both a listener's and a piano player's perspective. For the listener, it's a great piece that is quick but not violent - in fact, it can be quite delicate, depending on the performer. For the pianist, it's typically among the first Chopin études one learns, perhaps because it sounds a lot more difficult than it really is. Sadly, this makes the piece all the more popular to play poorly, and more often than not, a non-professional will blaze through the piece very loud and without much musicality.

'Black Key' Étude, Op. 10, No. 5 (Pianist: Maurizio Pollini)

Fortunately for Maurizio Pollini, he has a reputation for very delicate playing and it works perfectly in this piece. Now you ask - why is this piece nicknamed the 'Black Key' Étude? As you might guess, it has to do with most of the notes being played on the black keys of the piano. In fact, every single note on the right hand except for one is on a black key (and I sometimes wonder why Chopin decided to add that single white key). I think this is the reason the étude is rather easy despite its high speed. The black keys are raised up and have nice gaps between them. This means you never accidentally hit the wrong note. Additionally, you don't need to move your hand into the awkward configurations that's sometimes found in the other études (for example, Op. 10, No. 2). Actually, I don't think you need to ever cross your fingers under each other on the right hand. Anyway, this means the focus can be on velocity, which is exactly what the piece exercises.

The white keys are made of lava!

*****

Also among Chopin's most famous études is the 'Revolutionary' Étude (Op. 10, No. 12). What a perfect nickname (again, one not ascribed by Chopin himself). This piece is incredibly difficult to play nicely, and I myself am guilty of using too much pedal to make the piece easier but much worse-sounding.

'Revolutionary' Étude, Op. 10, No. 12 (Pianist: Vladimir Ashkenazy)

The fast, sweeping runs are now in the left hand, with the right hand playing a very powerful melody. This is another piece that has so many different interpretations. I personally prefer the cleaner, more traditional ones, which barely use the pedal and don't overdo the rubato (which is changing the tempo to convey emotion). Well, I do like rubato towards the end, but not throughout the whole piece. Since the runs are in the left hand, the melody (on the right hand) is easier to follow, and so one can basically sing along. This makes the piece more memorable - hence its popularity.

I bet this tune was on their iPods at the time

I should note, though, that singable melodies are not required of music - I believe music is a multilayered medium, and that in the case of Chopin's Études, the music is largely used to paint images and convey emotions. There is much value to those tunes that you can hum while you're walking, but I'd easily prefer a piece of music you can lose yourself in. Of course, this is just a personal opinion - and it's reflected in my preference of romantic-era music over classical-era music.

*****

Of the remaining eight études in the set, some other ones I really like are:

Op. 10, No. 1 - a grand introduction with huge, sweeping arpeggios
Op. 10, No. 2 - a melody that sounds like scurrying mice, played using only the last three fingers of the right hand
Op. 10, No. 8 - a light, fast tune that evokes images of birds fluttering
Op. 10, No. 9 - an articulated, longing melody over a flowing bass

While some of the études are better than others, I can wholeheartedly recommend every single one of Chopin's études (in this set, in Op. 25, and from the "Trois nouvelles études"). In addition, note that each étude is its own piece, but this set as well as the Op. 25 set sound especially great when all played in order, like a music album. A particularly great transition is in between the delicate ending of Op. 10, No. 3 to the sudden power of Op. 10, No. 4. The whole product is not as unified as a multi-movement piece like a symphony or a sonata, but it somehow sounds cohesive.

*****

Stay tuned for the Chopin Études, Op. 25 edition of Classical Corner, which will likely but not necessarily be the next entry in this series.

Classical Corner: Holst's "The Planets"

2010-08-13T02:21:00.003-04:00

Gustav Holst's symphonic suite "The Planets" was written between 1914 and 1916 and is today one of the most popular pieces of 20th-century "classical" music as well as British music. Its blend of unique styles are undoubtedly strong influences to modern composers like John Williams. Out of the suite's seven movements, the most famous ones are the opening march "Mars, the Bringer of War" and the energetic "Jupiter, the Bringer of Jollity." Give the "Jupiter" movement a listen and you might recognize some of the melodies.

Click to play: "Jupiter, the Bringer of Jollity" from "The Planets" - Gustav Holst

The movement opens with tons of "open" (i.e. tonally ambiguous) chords in the strings with the brass playing the main part. Already we can note the huge similarity to much of John Williams's music. From here, the piece basically has three melodic themes: the bouncy melody in duple-meter, the heavy and more deliberate melody in triple-meter, and the slow and emotional melody at the middle of the piece. After the slow middle portion (which is my favorite part of the movement) comes a developed version of the intro, first melodic theme, second melodic theme, and a coda. So this movement does conform to the A-B-A format of a classical sonata and has a good overall balance despite its more contemporary harmonies. The "Jupiter" movement is the fourth out of seven movements in the suite. Each movement is named for the Roman god corresponding to each non-Earth planet and are ordered in terms of distance from Earth. Thus, the suite is performed as follows:

"Mars, the Bringer of War" - a majestic march in 5/4 time
"Venus, the Bringer of Peace" - a slow, dreamlike atmosphere
"Mercury, the Winged Messenger" - light melodies that run and fly
"Jupiter, the Bringer of Jollity" - grand melodies
"Saturn, the Bringer of Old Age" - slow but tense
"Uranus, the Magician" - devilish and mischievous
"Neptune, the Mystic" - another dreamlike atmosphere in 5/4 time

With a throne in the clouds and a half-naked lady slave,

it's not hard to see why Jupiter is the "Bringer of Jollity"

Some have noted a kind of antisymmetry in the movements that's pretty neat. From Wikipedia: "Critic David Hurwitz offers an alternative explanation for the piece's structure: that "Jupiter" is the centrepoint of the suite and that the movements on either side are in mirror images. Thus "Mars" involves motion and "Neptune" is static; "Venus" is sublime while "Uranus" is vulgar, and "Mercury" is light and scherzando while "Saturn" is heavy and plodding. This hypothesis is lent credence by the fact that the two outer movements, "Mars" and "Neptune", are both written in rather unusual quintuple meter."

The suite was composed before the discovery of Pluto in 1930, and Holst fans across the world rejoiced when it was demoted to a dwarf planet, as this meant that "The Planets" was once again complete. Listening to the whole suite, it's almost as if I'm watching a movie, and the music is evoking images. It's easy to see then, why many film score composers have music that is heavily influenced by Holst's work. For example, right off the bat we drew comparisons between "Jupiter" and John Williams's music. "Mars" in particular also seems like a huge influence for him. "Saturn" immediately brings Bernard Herrman of classic film fame into mind. "Venus" and "Neptune" are reminiscent of some aspects of works by Howard Shore, Hans Zimmer, and Danny Elfman. Meanwhile, "Mercury" and "Uranus" seem to fit perfectly in a Warner Bros. cartoon.

You never really were part of the family, Pluto

"The Planets" is one of my favorite classical works because it creates so many great atmospheres and images while always keeping the music moving and flowing. The instrumentation is great - just like, say, John Williams's music, many of the grand melodies are brass-heavy, which is more atmospheric and powerful than the more classical choice of using dozens of violins instead. In addition to the typical symphonic instruments, there is great use of the harp, mallet instruments like the celesta, glockenspiel, and xylophone, and perhaps most famously a woman's choir in the final movement. The choir is located in a separate room from the orchestra and the entire suite actually ends in a makeshift fadeout as the door separating the choir from the orchestra is slowly shut. I can't think of any other pieces of classical music that fade out, and it's entirely appropriate for the end of "The Planets" as we reach the edge of the solar system. Since then, a lot of modern musicians have I guess "followed suit," though in modern music I feel that fadeouts are often used as a cop out when the writer doesn't know how to properly end a song. This is why I'll consider the ending of "The Planets" the fadeout of all fadeouts.

If you liked "Jupiter," go ahead and give the rest of the suite a listen. Each movement can be listened to individually as its own piece, but the suite also works great in its entirety (about 50 minutes), and perhaps it's because of the elegant anti-symmetric structure mentioned above.

My Top 100 Movies: #80 - #71

2010-08-10T21:42:00.000-04:00

Wow, it's been a while since I've worked on this blog series, but right now is a perfect time to get things started again on movie talk. Since I made my Top 100 list back last November, I've seen some great movies like The Hurt Locker and Inception, which could very well break into this list if I were to rewrite it. These movies are still fresh in everyone's minds though, so I'll just leave the list as is and hopefully introduce some older films that people might not already be familiar with. Make sure to check out the links at the bottom of this entry to see the Top 100 list, as well as my blurbs for movies #100 to 81, since it's been a really long time.

*****

#80

Forrest Gump

Dir. Robert Zemeckis (1994)

Forrest Gump is a movie that everyone can easily enjoy over and over again, and in my opinion it rightfully won the Best Picture Oscar in 1994 over other great movies in Pulp Fiction and The Shawshank Redemption. This is a movie without any weak points and filled with charm. It offers an alternate perspective not only of history, but also of life itself. Even if for nothing else, Gump's many memorable scenes and quotes secures its place as an immortal piece of cinematic history.

*****

#79

The Bicycle Thief

Dir. Vittorio De Sica (1948)

The most emotional movies are those where we can immerse ourselves into the characters' situations, and the Italian neo-realist movement is all about this idea. The Bicycle Thief is a snippet of reality, where "plots" are more likely to be simple rather than resembling many of the convoluted, unbelievable plots of today. In this case, a poor man spends all his money on a bicycle so that he can work, only to have it stolen. The film is shot on the streets, the characters are played by real people - not actors, and the experience feels real.

*****

#78

Boyz n the Hood

Dir. John Singleton (1991)

Yes, I too thought this was a comedy when I read the title and looked at the cast (Cuba Gooding Jr., Ice Cube, and "Larry" Fishburne), and boy was I surprised when I finally popped in the DVD without knowing anything about the plot, because this was one of the most tragic movies I have ever seen. Boyz n the Hood shows all the ugly sides of slum life and gang life. Other movies on the same topic tend to focus on the violence, while this one is not afraid to show the effects of violence on the fragile human emotion.

*****

#77

The Bridge on the River Kwai

Dir. David Lean (1957)

The Bridge on the River Kwai ranks up there with The Great Escape, The Deer Hunter, and Grand Illusion as one of the all-time great prisoner of war films. These movies thrive on individual interactions instead of the action of battle or the politics of war, and these interactions are especially emphasized in this film, where Alec Guinness plays a British colonel in a Japanese prison camp in Thailand led by the stern but human Colonel Saito. Meanwhile, a few Americans escape the camp and plot to destroy the bridge that the POWs are being forced to build, leading to one of the best movie endings of all time.

*****

#76

Rocky

Dir. John Avildsen (1976)

Just as was the case with Forrest Gump, Rocky was that feel-good movie for all audiences that won the Best Picture Oscar, only to have people years later criticizing the Academy's choice. In this case, the film beat out Taxi Driver and Network. In retrospect, I'd give the award to Taxi Driver, but I also do feel that Rocky is often overlooked as merely a feel-good sports movie. It's really so much more than that though, and especially in the first film, the boxing, Rocky's personal development, and his relationship with Adrian are all interconnected. If the only thing you care about while watching is whether Rocky wins or loses his boxing matches, then you're missing the point.

*****

#75

Arsenic and Old Lace

Dir. Frank Capra (1944)

Suffice it to say that Arsenic and Old Lace was a very bold movie for its time. A newlywed played by Cary Grant visits his aunts' home to discover that they have a hobby of inviting old men over and poisoning them. And when the other characters include a guy who thinks he is Theodore Roosevelt and a psycho killer on the run who looks like Frankenstein's monster, you can get an idea of how crazy the movie will turn out. Cary Grant plays his role to perfection, repeatedly using a certain facial expression (see the picture) to draw out laughs at those moments when the other characters aren't already doing so.

*****

#74

Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid

Dir. George Roy Hill (1969)

A different kind of western film, Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid centers on the adventures (or misadventures) of two bank robbers: Paul Newman as Butch Cassidy and Robert Redford as the Sundance Kid (the namesake of Redford's Sundance Film Festival). The movie is filled with dialogue that is stylish and charming, and combines the traditional western plot with a love triangle and a good amount of action. Overall, this film is really stylish and likable, and just tons of fun from the beginning up to the immortal final freeze frame.

*****

#73

Ace in the Hole

Dir. Billy Wilder (1951)

Billy Wilder's Ace in the Hole was initially released to a negative reception in 1951 due to its negativity and criticism of the media and human nature. Over the years, people have come to realize the film's genius, as its harsh views on journalism are still accurate today. The film revolves around the rescue efforts during a mining accident that turns into a big media circus. Kirk Douglas plays a journalist who deliberately delays the rescue efforts in order to get more publicity, eventually resulting in the death of the trapped miner. Even to this day, the film is not as famous as some of Wilder's other works, but it is definitely just as good.

*****

#72

Alien

Dir. Ridley Scott (1979)

The Alien series has by now devolved into such a brainless sci-fi action franchise that it's easy to forget that its roots lie strictly in horror. I'll lay the blame on James Cameron, who made the respectable sequel Aliens but also unfortunately gave the execs bad ideas. Oh well, I guess the same thing happens to just about every other great horror movie. Anyway, just like Jaws, the horror in Alien comes from a fear of the unknown - in both cases, it's not until near the end where we see the monsters in full form - along with an eerie pacing. These two elements sadly have disappeared from both franchises - the first by nature and the second by the studios' desire for more killing and less meaning to each kill.

*****

#71

Being John Malkovich

Dir. Spike Jonze (1999)

Want to see a movie that messes with your mind but is loads of fun? Look no further than Being John Malkovich, the child of two of Hollywood's strangest minds in director Spike Jonze and writer Charlie Kaufman. The movie is just about as strange as its title and stars a semi-unrecognizable John Cusack as an unsuccessful puppeteer who discovers a portal into the mind of John Malkovich (played by himself). All the chaos that ensues needs no further explanation.

*****

For the complete Top 100 list, click here.

Movies #100 - #91 here.

Movies #90 - #81 here.

Classical Corner: Schubert's "Trout" Quintet

2010-08-10T03:22:00.013-04:00

Now that the Tour de France is over I don't have much to write about until December when many of the year's best movies will come out (I would have written a review of Inception but by now it's well overdue). I'm working on resuming my write-ups for my Top 100 movies of all time list but am feeling a little uninspired as far as that goes. So here's a new idea for a blog series: Classical Corner. It won't be anything too snobby or pretentious, just a little bit of classical music from trusty old YouTube, along with some of my thoughts about the piece at hand.

*****

Today's piece is the 4th movement of Franz Schubert's "Trout" Quintet (formally called Piano Quintet in A major, D. 667). This movement is a theme and variations on a song called "The Trout" previously written by Schubert - hence the piece's nickname.

Click to play: "Trout" Quintet, 4th mvt. - Franz Schubert

The movement begins with a very simple tune (i.e. the theme) played by the violin before developing into five (arguably six) variations. The first three are fairly straightforward, seeing the melody flow from the piano (Var. I) to the viola (Var. II) to the cello and bass (Var. III), with an accompaniment that flows like water and progressively increases in presence. Var. IV is where things start to switch up a bit, with percussive and stormy chords in the minor key that settle into a calm kind of aftermath. Var. V has some beautiful cello melody and interesting modulations, and we finally get to see Schubert really developing the melody. The final segment is labeled "Allegretto" as opposed to "Var. VI," and features the melody passed back and forth between the violin and cello in playful fashion.

Artist's rendition of the exact trout that inspired this piece

This movement is probably the most famous of the quintet and the easiest to follow, but the rest of the quintet is also excellent and features some great development that contrasts with the theme and variation format used in this movement. In my opinion, the "Trout" Quintet is one of the greatest pieces of music out there, and this comes from someone who is not overly crazy about either chamber music or Schubert. I particularly like the unorthodox instrumentation of the quintet. Whereas a typical piano quintet uses basically a string quartet plus a piano (i.e. two violins, a viola, a cello, and a piano), this work replaces the second violin with a bass. This unique instrumentation has a great sonority and allows for a little more compositional freedom in my opinion, and I find it surprising that this instrumentation never really became more popular.

Franz Schubert and his immense hair - an indication of his immense genius

Most obviously, the bass can reach those notes lower than the cello's range. While a piano can also hit these notes, the bass has a nicer timbre and definitely a better blend with the group at that low range, as in my opinion the piano sometime sounds alien when playing those low notes along with a string quartet. Accordingly, because the piano does not need to be hitting those low notes, Schubert uses it in the upper register for most of the quintet, where it has a very clear tone that blends extremely well with the group. Sadly for the bassist, they are largely reserved to the accompaniment role that is typically played by the cello (but it's a bass - what can you expect). But this results in a much greater melodic freedom in the cello part, which is awesome because the cello sounds really beautiful in its upper register.

Overall the quintet is characterized by a "full" sound (which I am very much a sucker for) and an immense melodic clarity among all five instruments. If you liked the above clip, definitely check out the rest of the piece (it's five movements total), and stay tuned for the next installment of Classical Corner!

TdF Commentary 7/25

2010-07-25T15:47:00.001-04:00

Stage 20 Recap

Cavendish wins yet another bunch sprint, Petacchi wins green jersey

The 2010 Tour de France is now over. After three weeks of excitement and - dare I say - memories, the peloton has finally reached Paris, with Mark Cavendish leading the group across the finish at the Champs-Élysées. As usual, the stage began as a parade celebrating the end of a long journey, as well as the accomplishments of those like Alberto Contador, who earned his third yellow jersey, and riders such as Lance Armstrong, who after long careers will be retiring from professional cycling.

The official start of the stage was delayed for a while due to a publicity stunt from Lance Armstrong's Team RadioShack, which came out in entirely black jerseys with a big "28" on the back to represent the 28 million people in the world affected by cancer. The race organizers would let the team wear the black jerseys during the neutral zone, but made them change back to their regular jerseys before the official start. This incident would delay the official start for a while, and Armstrong would even stay behind to argue the officials' decision. At the beginning, Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck launched an attack in jest, getting themselves some camera time before shaking hands and dropping back to the pack. From then, as per tradition, the real race didn't start until the riders reached Paris, where an eight-lap criterium around the Champs-Élysées.

As expected, attacks were launched, but the peloton never gave them much room - as is typically the case on the Tour's final stages. The breakaway was large enough to sustain enough of a lead that the sprinters weren't able to bridge the gap to contest the two intermediate sprints. This was ideal for Alessandro Petacchi, who would look favorably on any opportunity to eliminate point opportunities for rivals as he defended his lead in the green jersey race. Meanwhile, it's no secret that Thor Hushovd would probably need these intermediate sprints to have a shot at green, while Mark Cavendish was likely to focus his efforts on the stage win rather than racking up points to win the jersey.

The breakaway was actually looking to be dangerous, holding its lead until the final lap. But not even an eleven-man breakaway could hold off the peloton, which was speeding up to prepare for a bunch sprint. The usual suspects were at the front of the peloton in the final straightaway, with Thor Hushovd this time being the one to instigate the sprint. His move, however, proved to be too little and too early, as Alessandro Petacchi and Mark Cavendish were able to zip by right away, and other sprinters were able to overtake Hushovd as he lost steam. Just as has been the case with the past several bunch sprints, Cavendish was able to win by multiple bike lengths even without too much help from his team. This victory is Cav's 5th this Tour and 15th overall in just three years on Tour. After finishing 2nd place in the green jersey competition (and this year not even trying to win it after his Stage 1 crash), I think next year it's time for him to start focusing on winning the jersey in addition to racking up stage wins. Petacchi was able to place in second, which was enough to defend the lead he initially built from his Stage 1 victory, and win the green jersey. Despite dominating the sprint world in years past, this is Petacchi's first green jersey, which comes at the age of 36. This victory makes him one of the select few to win the points classification in all three Grand Tours.

Sylvain Chavanel has won The Tour's overall 'super combative' prize - a much deserved honor after going solo to win two stages, as well as including himself in many escapes. Chavanel also won the prize two years ago, and such aggressiveness is what keeps many of the weaker teams on Tour relevant - like his Quick Step team that is missing its leader in sprinter Tom Boonen. The honor of the 'Lanterne rouge' for the rider who places last (and therefore spends the most time suffering on the saddle) goes to Adriano Malori of Lampre-Farnese, who rode the course in 96h25'51", which is 4h27'03" slower than Contador. Malori had been in second to last coming out of the Pyrenees, but time trial specialist Bert Grabsch, who was then in last place, rode a brilliant time trial, giving away the infamous honor.

I must say, this has probably been the single most exciting Tour I've followed. There was no shortage of drama, and the big three jersey races were all close until the end. This comes after an era dominated by one rider (Lance Armstrong), followed by several years very heavily marred by doping (or at least the Tour catching and expelling dopers). This year's edition did not see anyone expelled for doping (other than one rider who did not start the race after taking a medication that, unbeknownst to him, contained a banned substance). Of course, the lack of doping expulsions does not at all mean that there are no dopers on Tour, but for once it's nice to see a race where stage winners and yellow jersey wearers aren't getting kicked out every other day. Sometime in the next few days, I'll be wrapping up the Tour with some commentary on this year's race as a whole, as well as some insights into next year's race. In the meantime, here are the results from today, as well as a run-through of all the Tour's winners.

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	35 pts
2	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	30 pts
3	Julian Dean	Garmin-Transitions	26 pts
4	Jürgen Roelandts	Omega Pharma-Lotto	24 pts
5	Oscar Freire	Rabobank	22 pts
6	Gerald Ciolek	Team Milram	20 pts
7	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	19 pts
8	Matti Breschel	Team Saxo Bank	18 pts
9	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	17 pts
10	Daniel Oss	Liquigas-Doimo	16 pts

*****

Final Points Standings

1	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	243 pts
3	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	232 pts
2	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	222 pts
4	José Joaquin Rojas	Caisse D'Epargne	179 pts
5	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	179 pts
6	Edvald Boasson Hagen	Team Sky	161 pts
7	Sébastien Turgot	BBox Bouygues-Telecom	135 pts
8	Gerald Ciolek	Team Milram	126 pts
9	Jürgen Roelandts	Omega Pharma-Lotto	124 pts
10	Lloyd Mondory	AG2R La Mondiale	119 pts

*****

Winners

Yellow Jersey - Alberto Contador

2nd Place - Andy Schleck (L), 3rd Place - Denis Menchov (R)

Green Jersey - Alessandro Petacchi

Polka-dot Jersey - Anthony Charteau

White Jersey - Andy Schleck

Team Classification - Team RadioShack

TdF Commentary 7/24

2010-07-24T18:07:00.000-04:00

Stage 19 Recap

Cancellara wins time trial, Contador has unexpectedly close battle with Schleck but holds on for yellow, Menchov overtakes Sanchez for podium spot

The race for the yellow jersey is now unofficially over, as Alberto Contador was able to maintain his lead over Andy Schleck in the final time trial. Unsurprisingly, the time trial was won by specialist Fabian Cancellara, who was also the winner of the prologue time trial. Cancellara's efforts were aided by heavy crosswinds later in the day that slowed down riders' times over the 52 km course by several minutes. Fortunately, the weather wouldn't affect the GC race because the riders start the course in reverse order of standings, leaving all the GC contenders riding at the end of the day. Cancellara set a time of 1h00'56", with an average speed of 51.2 kmh (31.8 mph).

While Andy Schleck surprised many be riding the time trial of his life, even having a lead over Alberto Contador at the first time check, Contador finally pulled through and finished 31" ahead of Schleck. Contador's time trial was slower than expected, especially after he won a time trial in last year's Tour, but keep in mind that last year's course had a relatively big climb, while this year's course was very flat. The crosswinds didn't help either, and Contador just didn't have the size to get himself in the top ranks. Because tomorrow's stage is by tradition non-competitive as far as GC goes, Contador will end the Tour with a 39" lead over Schleck - one of the smallest leads in Tour history. Interestingly, this is also the same amount of time Contador had gained over Schleck in his attack in Stage 15. Without this attack, all other things equal (of course a fallacious assumption), this Tour could have come down to fractions of a second! Andy Schleck was very impressive with his time trial, which is known to be his weakness. Schleck is just 25 years old and will continue to develop, especially in the time trial discipline. By next year, we may expect him to have a much improved aero-position and be able to contend with Contador in both the mountains and the time trials. Contador is fairly young as well, and the two of them should have some great battles in years to come. As a consolation, Schleck will receive the white jersey for the third time - a feat achieved before only by Jan Ullrich.

Denis Menchov had by far the best ride out of the top GC contenders. He finished in 11th, but without any crosswinds, he probably would have been able to place in third. Menchov's time was far more than enough to get him onto the Tour podium for the first time in his career (In 2008, Menchov finished 4th, and 3rd place finisher Bernard Kohl would eventually get his placing revoked for a doping offense. However, Menchov has not retroactively been awarded 3rd, nor did he get the honor of standing on the podium in Paris.). Along with his win in the 2009 Giro d'Italia and two wins in the 2005 and 2007 Vuelta a España, Menchov has now placed on the podium in all three Grand Tours, putting him in the upper echelon of cyclists. Samuel Sanchez, meanwhile, didn't ride a horrible time trial, but now knows that he will need to do better on the mountains to place well in future Tours.

The GC rider with the worst time trial was Joaquin Rodriguez, who finished quite close to last place. Rodriguez had been very impressive this Tour - until today. And at the age of 31, I don't see him improving in the discipline to compete in future Grand Tours, especially those with two time trials instead of one. On the other hand, some young riders in Roman Kreuziger and Robert Gesink had sub-par performances, but are only 24 years old and are sure to improve over the next several years. Within a few years, both riders could be ready to be designated team leaders with podium potential.

Despite the late crosswinds slowing down the time trials of Levi Leipheimer and Andreas Klöden, both of whom are usually among the top 20 finishers, Team RadioShack still managed to beat Caisse D'Epargne today (which is not considered a good time-trialling team) by 46", to effectively win the team classification by a margin of 9'15". While RadioShack's GC goals were unsuccessful this year, at least they managed to win the team classification. One has to wonder about their future though, with many of their riders starting to get old. It's certainly possible that next year, their GC rider could be Jani Brajkovic.

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Fabian Cancellara	Team Saxo Bank	1h00'56"
2	Tony Martin	Team HTC-Columbia	+ 00'17"
3	Bert Grabsch	Team HTC-Columbia	+ 01'48"
11	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 03'51"
35	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 05'43"
40	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 05'51"
41	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 05'59"
44	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 06'14"
52	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 06'40"
53	Nicolas Roche	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 06'42"
69	Chris Horner	Team RadioShack	+ 07'08"
71	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 07'10"
73	Ruben Plaza	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 07'11"
79	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 07'18"
82	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 07'25"
87	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 07'35"
109	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 08'33"
154	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 10'17"

*****

Notable GC Standings

1	Alberto Contador	Astana	89h16'27"
2	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 00'39"
3	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 02'01"
4	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 03'40"
5	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 06'54"
6	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 09'31"
7	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 10'15"
8	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 11'37"
9	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 11'54"
10	Chris Horner	Team RadioShack	+ 12'02"
11	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 14'21"
12	Ruben Plaza	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 14'29"
13	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 14'40"
14	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 16'36"
15	Nicolas Roche	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 16'59"

*****

Stage 20 Preview

After a long and particularly eventful Tour, we finally reach the last stage, which finishes up with the group taking eight laps around the famous Champs-Élysées. By tradition, the stage is non-competitive except among the sprinters and non-GC riders trying to steal a stage win. In particular, no racing whatsoever is done before the bunch reaches Paris, and anyone who dares attack would undoubtedly be crucified by the peloton and may as well quit their career in pro cycling. The beginning of the stage is used for the jersey winners (except the green jersey, which is still up for grabs) to drink some champagne in celebration and have some photo ops. All the other riders, meanwhile, will just chat and reflect on the past three weeks of racing.

Once the race reaches the Champs-Élysées and the massive Parisian crowd that is there to watch, that's where the racing begins. The peloton will go at a very fast pace, and multiple riders will attack, hoping for a stage win in the best case scenario, or at the very least some attention from the crowd in the scenario that occurs 99% of the time. While there have been a few exceptions, like the always unpredictable Alexandre Vinokourov escaping to win the stage in 2005, just like any other very flat stage, it's almost always a day for the sprinters.

The battle for green is heavily in favor of Alessandro Petacchi, and you can be sure that he, Thor Hushovd, and Mark Cavendish will be battling it out on the intermediate sprints in addition to the presumed bunch sprint at the finish. Mark Cavendish won the stage (as well as every single other bunch sprint) last year, and while he is now missing some of his valuable teammates, he has still shown that he can excel by riding the wheels of other teams. I expect no different of an outcome tomorrow, with Cavendish claiming the glory of the stage win, but Alessandro Petacchi hanging on to win the green jersey that nobody at first really even expected him to be in the running for.

*****

For full Stage 19 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 20, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website. Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening. Live coverage on Versus begins at x:x0 AM (ET).

TdF Commentary 7/23

2010-07-23T12:26:00.002-04:00

Stage 18 Recap

Surprise..... Cavendish wins bunch sprint for fourth stage win, Petacchi is back in green

Stage 18 was rather uneventful so I'll keep it short today, but it's okay because after four really difficult stages, the riders really needed a stage that was as flat as Kansas. Today's breakaway contained Daniel Oss (Liquigas), Jérôme Pineau (Quick Step), Benoit Vaugrenard (FDJ), and Matti Breschel (Team Saxo Bank). Nothing new today as it was Mark Cavendish's Team HTC-Columbia and Alessanddro Petacchi's Lampre-Farnese who led the chase, as was expected. Leading to the finish line, this time it was Edvald Boasson Hagen's Team Sky setting up their sprint train at the front. A group of riders from Thor Hushovd's Cervélo TestTeam also were able to cluster near the front, and even Oscar Freire was in the mix, after basically having disappeared from the sprint scene.

It was Alessandro Petacchi who instigated the final sprint, bursting ahead from a few places back. Mark Cavendish was able to get onto Petacchi's slipstream, pass him, and win by about three bike lengths. Meanwhile, Hushovd didn't seem like he had any acceleration in him, even though he was expected to be in the best shape of all the sprinters coming out of the mountains. The top of the ranks was a list of the usual suspects: Cavendish, Julian Dean, Robbie McEwen, and Edvald Boasson Hagen, while Hushovd - who was in a prime position leading to the final straightaway - ended up in 14th to claim a measly 12 points to Petacchi's 26.

This stage win gives Alessandro Petacchi back the green jersey, as well as a 10 point lead over Thor Hushovd and a 16 point lead over Mark Cavendish. Petacchi should now easily be able to take the green jersey all the way. Only one bunch sprint remans (on the final stage), and we can assume that Cavendish will win it to claim 35 points. Petacchi would need at least 20 points (Cavendish wins the jersey in case of a tie because of more stage wins), and to do so he will need to place in 6th on the Champs-Élysées. If Petacchi can do that - and there's no reason to think he can't - Hushovd would need a 2nd place finish to win green - which is unlikely given his consistently poor performance on the bunch sprints. In other words, only a giant choke would stop Petacchi from winning the green jersey, and even if that happened, it would likely be Cavendish and not Hushovd winning the prize.

Now, two unfortunate events on Tour that we were hoping wouldn't have huge repercussions on the race have actually ended up becoming an issue (as least as far as drama goes). The first is the peloton's decision to slow down in Stage 2 after many riders had fallen. This would have been a great opportunity for Thor Hushovd to get 25 points for the stage win while his rivals were stuck behind by having to climb so close to the end of the stage. Those 25 points would have put him in a 15 point lead at the moment, which he would have had a great chance of holding in Paris. The second incident is the much-discussed Alberto Contador attack on Andy Schleck in Stage 15. Contador gained 39" on Schleck that day, and things would have been interesting in the time trial if it was Schleck with a 31" lead instead of Contador with an 8" lead. Of course, these unfortunate events did happen, and we can only speculate how things might have been had they not happened. For example, Hushovd might not have tried to go on so many intermediate sprints, and Contador would definitely have attacked more on the Col de Tourmalet.

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	35 pts
2	Julian Dean	Garmin-Transitions	30 pts
3	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	26 pts
4	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	24 pts
5	Oscar Freire	Rabobank	22 pts
6	Edvald Boasson Hagen	Team Sky	20 pts
8	José Joaquin Rojas	Caisse D'Epargne	18 pts
14	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	12 pts

*****

Notable Points Standings

1	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	213 pts
2	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	203 pts
3	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	197 pts
4	José Joaquin Rojas	Caisse D'Epargne	167 pts
5	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	162 pts

*****

Stage 19 Preview

The last competitive stage for the GC riders this year is a time trial, unlike last year where the final competitive stage was a mountaintop finish. The course is extremely flat, and at 52 km in length favors the pure time-triallists. Alberto Contador surprised many last year by winning the Stage 18 time trial in Annecy. However, that time trial was only 40.5 km and included a category-3 climb that made the course a little friendlier to GC riders. This year, there will be none of those benefits, and it will all come down to pure power. If Fabian Cancellara is on top of his game tomorrow, he should be able to win the stage convincingly. What will be more interesting, though, is where the GC riders end up relative to each other.

For a large part, the GC has already been sorted out, but there will definitely some interesting battles going on tomorrow. The most obvious is the battle for the yellow jersey between Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck. In theory, Contador should get at least 1'30" on Schleck and extend his lead in the GC - but, you can never be sure what will happen. By far the most interesting battle is for the third spot on the podium, which has been narrowed down to just two riders: Samuel Sanchez and Denis Menchov. Sanchez is 21" seconds ahead of Menchov, but Menchov is historically the stronger time trial rider and can easily erase the deficit with a solid ride. Sanchez, however, will have the luxury of starting after his rival. This is an advantage for Sanchez because he will know Menchov's intermediate times beforehand (they will begin their rides three minutes apart) and can adjust his own pace accordingly.

The next biggest time gap between two riders in the top ten is 22", between 6th place Robert Gesink and 7th place Joaquin Rodriguez, who have both exceeded expectations this Tour. Neither is a particularly great time trial rider, so it will come down to who is in better shape tomorrow. Finally, we have the 25" gap between 9th place Roman Kreuziger and 10th place Chris Horner. Kreuziger is the stronger rider and should end up in 9th place, but Horner has been surprising with his performance this Tour and can continue to surprise to claim the 9th spot.

*****

For full Stage 18 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 19, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website. Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening. Live coverage on Versus begins at 8:30 AM (ET).

TdF Commentary 7/22

2010-07-22T23:30:00.001-04:00

Stage 17 Recap

Schleck wins stage but Contador finishes right behind to keep yellow, Sanchez crashes hard but gains time on Menchov, Charteau is the winner of the polka-dot jersey

The only thing more daunting than climbing the Col de Tourmalet is climbing the Col de Tourmalet in the rain and fog. After a Tour de France filled with all kinds of bad luck, the riders had to race to most important GC stage of the race on slick roads with low visibility. As expected, the peloton rode easy until the Col de Tourmalet, and only then did the GC riders break into all out battle. A seven-man breakaway formed, none of whom were contenders for the polka-dot jersey. The peloton was content with the composition of the breakaway and quickly slowed down for a bathroom break in order to extend the lead.

Things were looking very scary for Samuel Sanchez, who crashed hard early in the stage and was on the ground for over a minute. Thankfully, he had landed on his sternum (and not his collarbone), and he was just simply out of breath. He was paced back with the help of his teammates to the peloton, which had slowed down as a courtesy to the GC contender. This was far from the ideal situation for the winner of the Astana-less 2008 Tour de France Carlos Sastre, who had been looking for a stage win the mountains for a while. Sastre's plan was to attack on the first category-1 climb of the day and ideally use his superior climbing to catch the breakaway on his own. However, because the peloton had slowed down to wait for Sanchez, the gap between the peloton and the leaders would have been too big for a successful counterattack. The upset Sastre refused to wait with the peloton and launched his attack 20 km before the Col de Marie-Blanque. Sastre was never able to catch the leaders, largely because he needed to expend a lot of energy to maintain a solo attack on the flats, and eventually he was caught and dropped by the peloton at the beginning of the final climb, as the peloton began to accelerate and chase down the tiring leaders.

With a seven-man breakaway plus the Carlos Sastre counterattack all ahead of the peloton for most of the stage, the situation was perfect for Anthony Charteau, who was looking merely to defend a close lead over Christophe Moreau in the polka-dot jersey race. As points are awarded only to the first eight riders on the category-1 climbs, Charteau didn't have to worry at all about losing points on those climbs. Additionally, because the stage ended with a summit finish, those points typically go to GC riders, so Charteau didn't have to worry too much about the final climb either. In the end, Charteau and Moreau both ended the day without any mountain points, and since this was the final stage with any mountain points, all Anthony Charteau needs to do to wear the polka-dot jersey in Paris is to complete the race - a relatively easy task with just two flat stages and a time trial remaining.

A bizarre incident occurred in the peloton on the second to last climb of the day. As the peloton was ascending the Col du Soulor, a flock of sheep ran in front of the group, halting them to a standstill for a few seconds. Thankfully the peloton was climbing instead of descending or riding the flats, as they were easily able to react and stop without any accidents. Especially during a time where the peloton was riding fast to stretch out the group leading into the Tourmalet, a high-speed accident at the front could have taken down a quarter of the group (as was pretty much the case in Stage 1) - and the odd thing is that in these incidents involving bikers hitting animals, the riders always get hurt and their bikes totaled, while the animals always seem to make it out completely unharmed.

On the final ascent of the Tour, Team Saxo Bank stayed at the front of the peloton and rode a fast tempo to reduce the number of riders at the front of the group. About halfway up is where the excitement began. As expected, the main aggressor was Andy Schleck, who launched a powerful attack that only Alberto Contador could match. The rest of the contenders let the two of them go and fight their own battle, while they stayed behind and rode their own pace. Contador was able to ride Schleck's wheel seemingly with ease, even with Schleck riding with a very fast pace. At some points, the pair had gained nearly two minutes on the other GC contenders, but their lead diminished as they played some cat and mouse tactics close to the finish. Schleck's strategy was to try to shake off Contador by riding a fast tempo instead of the usual strategy of launching attacks. This strategy may have perhaps been used because Contador was always riding behind Schleck and thus could see his every move and react quickly. Schleck's tempo was so fast that he likely did not have enough energy for a second full acceleration.

Contador, meanwhile, tried his luck at an attack, even though he made it clear that his goal for the day was just to finish with Schleck. For a while it looked like Contador's attack would be successful, but Schleck mustered up the energy to catch his rival. This is a testament to Andy Schleck's climbing skills, as in years past, when Contador launched his attack, it was all over. These two young riders will have some great battles in the mountains for many years to come. In the end, it became clear that the two riders would finish together and that Schleck would not be able to get the nine seconds he needed to reclaim the yellow jersey and have the advantage of starting last in the time trial. Alberto Contador looked primed to sprint for the stage win, but in a very classy move did not contest the sprint, giving the victory to Schleck. This was a great gesture on Contador's part, and it alleviates much of the criticism he's gotten for the past few days. Schleck was riding in front and setting the pace for the entirety of his duel with Contador, and for Contador - who already has a reputation for being a wheelsucker - to steal the stage win would have been considered very classless. The two riders patted each other on the back upon crossing the finish line and Schleck raised his hand halfheartedly from the bittersweetness of winning the stage but not gaining time on his rival. At this point it seems that unless anything weird happens on Saturday's time trial, Alberto Contador is a lock for the yellow jersey and Andy Schleck is a lock for 2nd.

The rest of the GC riders did not see much action for most of the climb. A few contenders like Levi Leipheimer and Alexandre Vinokourov were dropped from the group even without anyone having made attacks. In the final few kilometers - the steepest ones - of the stage, the aggressive action began, with Joaquin Rodriguez bursting forward to eventually claim third. The group shattered to pieces, and Ryder Hesjedal was able to get fourth in very impressive fashion, while Samuel Sanchez actually managed to gain eight seconds on his podium rival Denis Menchov. One has to wonder if Sanchez may have been able to get more of a lead had he not hit the deck early in the stage. The battle between Menchov and Sanchez will be the most intriguing in Saturday's time trial. Menchov currently stands 21" behind Sanchez and has a great chance of gaining at least that much in the time trial. However, Sanchez will have the advantage of starting after Menchov and being able to keep track of his intermediate times.

In other GC standings news, somehow Chris Horner is now the top-ranked Team RadioShack rider, bursting into the top ten after finishing in the GC rider minus Schleck/Contador group. In addition to being one of the sport's greatest domestiques as well has having one of cycling's most contagiously positive attitudes, the American has throughout the years been an excellent model of consistency, and it's shown again this year. Although he doesn't have the strength of the other top riders, he hardly ever has a bad day. His teammates Lance Armstrong, Levi Leipheimer, Andreas Klöden, and Jani Brajkovic are all considered stronger riders, but they have all had bad days at some point or another on the Tour. Horner has a great chance of maintaining his spot in the top ten, with a good 2'09" separating him from the 11th ranked rider.

Chris Horner, we salute you!

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	5h03'29"
2	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 00'00"
3	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 01'18"
4	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 01'27"
5	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 01'32"
6	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 01'40"
7	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 01'40"
8	Chris Horner	Team RadioShack	+ 01'45"
9	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 01'48"
10	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 02'14"
11	Damiano Cunego	Lampre-Farnese	+ 03'00"
12	Nicolas Roche	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 03'26"
13	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 03'30"
14	John Gadret	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 03'35"
15	Kanstantsin Sivtsov	Team HTC-Columbia	+ 03'44"
17	Lance Armstrong	Team RadioShack	+ 04'12"
20	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 04'27"
23	Ruben Plaza	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 04'59"
43	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 08'59"
49	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 10'45"
72	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 16'48"

*****

Notable GC Standings

1	Alberto Contador	Astana	83h32'39"
2	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 00'08"
3	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 03'32"
4	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 03'53"
5	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 05'27"
6	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 06'41"
7	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 07'03"
8	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 09'18"
9	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 10'12"
10	Chris Horner	Team RadioShack	+ 10'37"
11	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 12'46"
12	Ruben Plaza	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 13'01"
13	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 14'24"
14	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 14'44"
15	Nicolas Roche	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 16'00"
16	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 17'57"
21	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 25'50"

*****

Final Mountains Standings

1	Anthony Charteau	BBox Bouygues Telecom	143 pts
2	Christophe Moreau	Caisse D'Epargne	128 pts
3	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	116 pts
4	Alberto Contador	Astana	112 pts
5	Damiano Cunego	Lampre-Farnese	99 pts
6	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	96 pts
7	Sandy Casar	FDJ	93 pts
8	Jérôme Pineau	Quick Step	92 pts
9	Thomas Voeckler	BBox Bouygues Telecom	82 pts
10	Pierrick Fedrigo	BBox Bouygues Telecom	72 pts

*****

Stage 18 Preview

The Tour is done with the mountains, and before the time trial that will ultimately set the GC standings in stone, we'll get a stage for the sprinters. A breakaway finish will be essentially impossible tomorrow (unless the wind is very unruly), and we can expect a bunch sprint. Meanwhile the GC riders will use the stage to get themselves rested but prepared for the critical time trial on Saturday. Not much more to say here, so I'll go ahead with my prediction and will go with Alessandro Petacchi to upset Mark Cavendish for the stage win and reclaim the green jersey.

*****

For full Stage 17 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 18, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website. Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening. Live coverage on Versus begins at 8:30 AM (ET).

TdF Commentary 7/21

2010-07-21T11:48:00.000-04:00

Stage 17 Preview

Just looking at the profile of this stage is intimidating. This stage will be the biggest GC battleground of the whole Tour, and it's easy to see why. The final climb up the Col du Tourmalet is steep - which is perfect for attacking - and long - which is perfect for translating those attacks into huge time gaps. Whereas we've only seen gaps of a minute or less among any pair of GC riders on the same "level" (i.e. going for yellow, going for podium, going for top give, going for top ten), we can expect to see some gaps perhaps reaching two minutes or more opening up from a successful attack up the final climb.

The Col du Tourmalet is the most frequently used pass on Tour and is probably the most famous Pyrenean climb in the history of the Tour de France. In terms of legendary status, it is probably only surpassed by the Alpe d'Huez. Thus, it's only appropriate that on the celebration of the races 100th year in the Pyrenees, that the race passes through the Tourmalet twice and ends its final mountain stage on its peak, marking the 50th time the riders have made the ascent on cycling's most prestigious race.

The ascent is a grueling 18.6 km at 7.5%, which is made even more difficult by the fact that the climb steepens instead of flattening out towards the top. These types of finishes tend to be won by one of the top GC contenders, who will discharge just about all their energy. The riders will have a very flat stage following this before going into the decisive time trial, but riding at 100% on this climb is crucial, and the race could be decided today. If Alberto Contador gains time, matches, or even loses just a little bit of time on Andy Schleck, the Tour will pretty much be decided in Contador's favor. However, if Schleck can get at least 100 seconds on Contador, he may experience the "yellow jersey effect," in which he rides the time trial of his life to hang onto the overall prize. The battle for the podium will be just as exciting as the battle between Contador and Schleck, and if the two leaders attack early on the climb, the rest of the pack may just let them go at it alone and focus on the battle amongst themselves.

Expect Anthony Charteau and Christophe Moreau to make early attacks and try to claim points on the first three climbs. Any other rider looking to win the polka-dot jersey will need lots of points from the Col de Tourmalet. However, expect the GC contenders to be at the front of the race by the first half of the final climb. The lead group should be diminished to only the strongest riders, one of whom will likely get the stage win. Such was not the case in last year's equivalent stage, ending atop the more difficult Mont Ventoux, but by then the race had essentially been decided, with Alberto Contador having a full 4'11" advantage over Andy Schleck. This year, we still have a time trial after the mountains, so the GC contenders - especially the relatively weak time triallists like Schleck - can't afford to ride passively. They will need to gain every second they can, and their fast pace will make a stage win by anyone other than the strongest of riders extremely difficult.

Contador and Schleck are naturally the two favorites to win the stage, and I'll have to root for the underdog, Andy Schleck, to gain a good amount of time on Contador. Before his chain-slipping incident in Stage 15, Schleck actually looked to be nearly unstoppable, with Contador being caught by Menchov and Sanchez while on the attack. But I'll admit that this prediction is mostly due to being sour from Contador's attack on Stage 15. As far as the battle for third, I'll go with Denis Menchov getting enough time on Samuel Sanchez to be in a comfortable position leading to the Stage 19 time trial - as on paper, Menchov is the superior time trial rider. And in the King of the Mountains competition, it seems like more people seem to favor Christophe Moreau to win the polka-dot jersey, even though he is 15 points behind Anthony Charteau. Moreau is the better climber on any given day, but Charteau has built up his lead by making moves on many stages. My gut feeling is that Charteau will hold out for the win, but I'll be rooting for Moreau - who is the oldest rider on the Tour (Jens Voigt is second oldest and Lance Armstrong is third). Prepare for an exciting finish to the mountains of this year's Tour de France!

*****

For more complete info on Stage 17 and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website. Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening. Live coverage on Versus begins at 6:30 AM (ET).

TdF Commentary 7/20

2010-07-20T22:25:00.002-04:00

Stage 16 Recap

Fedrigo give France third consecutive stage win, Armstrong finishes in breakaway but too slow in sprint, Hushovd takes back green jersey

As expected, today's stage ended with a breakaway finish, with Pierrick Fedrigo beating the day's eight other escapees to the line in the final sprint. Today's stage was very dynamic because of its rather odd layout, having two category-1 climbs, then two HC climbs, followed by a long flat segment. The stage literally began on a category-1 climb, and multiple attacks and counterattacks resulted in the formation of a lead group that included polka-dot jersey holder Anthony Charteau, Lance Armstrong, Stage 9 winner Sandy Casar, and some marginal GC contenders in Roman Kreuziger, Ryder Hesjedal, Alexandre Vinokourov, Carlos Sastre, and Bradley Wiggins. It has already been speculated for a while that Armstrong would go for today's stage win, and as Team RadioShack got a more comfortable lead in the team classification, the team's directeur sportif Johan Bruyneel confirmed the plan. Armstrong is very far out of GC contention, and this was really the last stage before he retires from the Tour where he could realistically compete for the stage win.

Anthony Charteau likely knew that he would not be competitive in the later HC climbs of the stage, so the BBox Bouygues Telecom team used a very well-intentioned but not entirely successful strategy: Charteau contested the two early climbs of the day, receiving 28 out of a possible 30 points. Afterwards, as the breakaway lost steam and the peloton closed, BBox sent Pierrick Fedrigo in a counterattack, with the intention of winning the HC climbs, thus preventing Charteau's rivals from getting maximum points. Unfortunately, also joining the lead group on the counterattack were some strong KotM contenders in Damiano Cunego and Christophe Moreau, who both sacrificed the opportunity to get on the initial breakaway in favor of saving up for the more valuable climbs and possibly the stage win. Cunego and Moreau would indeed make it to the finish with the lead group of nine, which crossed the finish line 6'45" ahead of the peloton. Fedrigo was unable to stop Christophe Moreau from scoring 60 out of 60 points on the two HC climbs, and Moreau now has himself in a great position leading into the final mountain stage, as Charteau wasn't able to make it to the HC climbs fast enough to claim points. However, Fedrigo got plenty of consolation in being the fastest on the final sprint for the stage win , giving BBox their second consecutive stage win and France their third consecutive, as well as their sixth overall.

Some aggression from Sandy Casar and Lance Armstrong picked up the breakaway's pace, and all the GC riders in the pack dropped back to the peloton - though it's no secret that they should be saving their energy for Stage 17 anyway. Eventually, the lead group consisted just of Armstrong, Casar, Horner, Fedrigo, Moreau, Cunego, Ruben Plaza, Carlos Barredo, and Jurgen Van De Walle. In particularly, Barredo attacked repeatedly to try to hold out solo for the victory. After a few unsuccessful attacks, the group finally let him go with 45 km remaining, in essence agreeing to a sprint finish. The chasers then let Barredo tire himself out and picked up the pace to catch him at the last moment, just as the sprinters teams do on the flat stages. Eventually Barredo was caught with about 1 km left, and he finished behind the rest of the bunch, who sprinted for the stage win. Lance Armstrong was hoping to be in a better position in the final sprint with the help of teammate Chris Horner, but in the end there were just too many other strong riders, and Armstrong finished his sprint halfheartedly to place in sixth.

The peloton's pace was very much unlike many of the previous stages. No teams were trying to really break the peloton into pieces, and in the end almost all of the top GC riders finished in the peloton without any time gaps. The exception was Ivan Basso, who was suffering from a case of bronchitis and was dropped very early. Basso eventually finished in the grupetto, nearly 35 minutes behind the stage leaders, and drops all the way down to 27th in the GC, below the likes of Lance Armstrong and Cadel Evans. Because the peloton remained intact, the only movements in the top 15 of the GC - other than Basso's disappearance - are the jumps of Ruben Plaza and Chris Horner, who now sit in 12th and 14th after finishing in the breakaway. However, both riders are domestiques who will be working for their team leaders in Stage 17 and will likely lose enough time in the end to drop back down in the rankings.

Perhaps the surprise of the day was Thor Hushovd actually getting enough sprint points at the stage finish to reclaim green. Unsurprisingly, most of the sprinters were dropped easily, but because the peloton wasn't pushing the pace, Hushovd, along with some fellow sprinters in Jose Joaquin Rojas and Gerald Ciolek were able to finish with the peloton. Hushovd won the sprint in the peloton, ending the stage in 10th place to get 6 points, which gives him back the green jersey. The Norwegian now has a four point lead over Alessandro Petacchi, and he will need to have great performances in the bunch sprints of Stages 18 and 20 to hang onto the prize.

This is a really special Tour at this point, because so many things are still up in the air. At this point in many other Tours, some riders have such great leads in their areas that the final stages become trivial. However, right now we have a great battle going on for yellow between Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck. After the controversial events of yesterday, Contador has publicly apologized to Schleck, and the two are back on non-hostile terms. In addition, the battle for third is equally as exciting, with Samuel Sanchez and Denis Menchov neck and neck, with Jurgen Van Der Broeck hiding in the shadows. The battle for GC placing in the top ten is not overall as prestigious and won't see as much action, as the most exciting riders will be those competing for the higher honors. Still, it will be interesting to see where everyone ends up after the Col de Tourmalet, and then looking ahead, after the Stage 19 time trial.

The green jersey race is still a close contest, especially with Thor Hushovd reclaiming green today. Alessandro Petacchi has consistently been better than Hushovd on the bunch sprints this year, but perhaps Hushovd will be able to hang on for the win. To win the jersey, Hushovd will need to beat Petacchi in at least one of the two remaining sprints. The King of the Mountains competition will come to a close on Thursday, as there are no remaining climbs in Stages 18, 19, and 20. However, this year the competition will come down to the very last possible stage (a relative rarity in the polka-dot jersey race), as Anthony Charteau will look to hold off Christophe Moreau, while a few other riders like Damiano Cunego can still be in contention with a spectacular performance in Stage 17 (and a little bit of luck).

Tomorrow is the Tour's second rest day, and it comes right before the monster stage of the Tour for the GC riders. This will be a blessing for those who are good at using rest days to recuperate but maintain form, but it could potentially be horrible for those who find themselves out of shape after a day of not racing. It sounds strange that certain riders would absolutely hate having a day of rest, but it's true. Stay tuned for a preview of what promises to be an epic Stage 17 for the GC and KotM riders!

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Pierrick Fedrigo	BBox Bouygues Telecom	5h31'43"
2	Sandy Casar	FDJ	+ 00'00"
3	Ruben Plaza	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 00'00"
4	Damiano Cunego	Lampre-Farnese	+ 00'00"
5	Chris Horner	Team RadioShack	+ 00'00"
6	Lance Armstrong	Team RadioShack	+ 00'00"
10	Thor Hushovd	FDJ	+ 06'45"
19	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 06'45"
20	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 06'45"
21	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 06'45"
22	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 06'45"
28	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 06'45"
29	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 06'45"
30	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 06'45"
34	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 06'45"
35	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 06'45"
37	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 06'45"
39	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 06'45"
46	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 06'45"
52	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 06'45"
55	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 06'45"
111	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 34'48"

*****

Notable GC Standings

1	Alberto Contador	Astana	72h50'42"
2	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 00'08"
3	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 02'00"
4	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 02'13"
5	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 03'39"
6	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 05'01"
7	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 05'25"
8	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 05'45"
9	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 07'12"
10	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 07'51"
11	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 07'58"
12	Ruben Plaza	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 08'02"
13	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 08'19"
14	Chris Horner	Team RadioShack	+ 08'52"
15	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 09'02"
16	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 11'14"
27	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 37'18"

*****

Notable Mountains Results

1	Christophe Moreau	Caisse D'Epargne	60 pts
2	Pierrick Fedrigo	BBox Bouygues Telecom	54 pts
3	Lance Armstrong	Team RadioShack	48 pts
4	Chris Horner	Team RadioShack	39 pts
5	Sandy Casar	FDJ	37 pts
6	Ruben Plaza	BBox Bouygues Telecom	36 pts
6	Damiano Cunego	Lampre-Farnese	36 pts
8	Anthony Charteau	BBox Bouygues Telecom	28 pts

*****

Notable Mountains Standings

1	Anthony Charteau	BBox Bouygues Telecom	143 pts
2	Christophe Moreau	Caisse D'Epargne	128 pts
3	Damiano Cunego	Lampre-Farnese	99 pts
4	Sandy Casar	FDJ	93 pts
5	Jérôme Pineau	Quick Step	92 pts

*****

For full Stage 16 results and overall standings, visit the official TdF website. Check back tomorrow for a preview of Stage 17.

TdF Commentary 7/19

2010-07-19T12:14:00.004-04:00

Stage 15 Recap

Voeckler makes solo attack on breakaway for stage win, Contador attacks after Schleck mechanical problem to claim yellow

The stage's pace began very high, with the peloton remaining intact as they gobbled up breakaways containing threatening riders. Interestingly, Alessandro Petacchi and Thor Hushovd got points on the first climb, while Jérôme Pineau scored on the following intermediate sprint - instead of vice versa. Those riders were likely looking to get into a breakaway and thus were near the front of the peloton - however they were too threatening to the peloton and not allowed to escape. It wasn't until the 93 km mark (which is incredibly late) that a breakaway was formed. Because all of the riders in the breakaway weren't threats to the GC, KotM, or team classification (i.e. no RadioShack or Caisse D'Epargne riders), the peloton was content to let the group go.

From that point, the peloton eased to a very casual pace - slow enough to keep even the sprinters in the group until the HC climb up the Port de Balès - and leading into the final climb, the peloton had given the breakaway a cushion of over ten minutes. This would prove to be too much, as even with Team Saxo Bank pushing the pace of the peloton (which would of course split the peloton into pieces), Thomas Voeckler still reached the peak of the Port de Balès over four minutes ahead of the peloton. The French national champion had attacked the lead group, which had already been falling apart, and held off all the other breakaway riders on the descent for the stage win. This marks France's 5th stage win on Tour, and as the crowd at the finish noticed that the rider in the lead is one of France's most popular riders, they roared in applause as Voeckler coasted slowly to the line, bowing to the crowd.

Meanwhile, the peloton saw moments of aggression from Andy Schleck. His first attack was only matched by Alberto Contador, Samuel Sanchez, Denis Menchov, and Jurgen Van Den Broeck, and appropriately, the five riders are also the top five in the GC standings. A second attack by Schleck was looking to be more successful, but Schleck's chain slipped, slowing him down to nearly a standstill. In what is considered a very unsportsmanlike and classless move, Alberto Contador took advantage of Schleck's mechanical problem and launched an attack on his own. Contador was matched only by Sanchez and Menchov, who had no choice but to follow if they want to still have any chances whatsoever at winning the Tour. What was repeatedly disturbing about Contador's move was that he continued to look backwards to see Schleck's position, but continued to really push the pace.

I believe this is a truly classless move from Contador which only increases my disrespect for him. It is an unwritten rule that riders should not attack if a rival has a crash or mechanical problem (they should continue riding at their previous pace), and if the same thing had happened to Contador, Schleck has already claimed that he would have waited for him. Contador's battle with Schleck has now become dirty, and it is in complete contrast from the more noble Armstrong/Ullrich battles of years past, where the two waited for each other after crashes on separate occasions. Andy Schleck rode furiously to try to bridge a gap that was likely over a minute between himself and Contador's group. He passed many of the other GC contenders with ease, but never was able to get closer than 10" behind Contador, and because Contador was riding with a great descender in Samuel Sanchez, he was able to extend his lead on the descent. Contador ended up 39" ahead of Schleck and ended up in the yellow jersey. Schleck has vowed revenge, and we'll have to see whether he'll pull off any moves tomorrow in a stage that's not expected to be conducive for GC attacks.

In the GC, there is a good amount of movement, as expected. Other than Contador and Schleck switching spots, we also see Jurgen Van Den Broeck extending his lead on Robert Gesink and really making a case for a possible podium finish. Luis Leon Sanchez and Ivan Basso move down from 9th and 10th to 12th and 14th after disappointing performances today. Nicholas Roche was also the victim of bad luck, getting a flat tire on the climb up the Balès, and seemed to never make it back to the peloton, dropping his standing down to 17th. Alexandre Vinokourov and Ryder Hesjedal now find themselves in the top ten, with Roman Kreuziger peeking in. Meanwhile, Andreas Klöden has reappeared in the top of the rank at 15th place, but at 3'23" back from 10th, it will be very tough for him to make a top ten appearance, especially when his priority is helping Levi Leipheimer.

Team RadioShack had a very strong outing today, with Levi Leipheimer finishing in 17th, Andreas Klöden in 22nd, and Lance Armstrong in 23rd. Caisse D'Epargne couldn't match the effort but had a reasonably solid result with Ruben Plaza finishing in 26th, Christophe Moreau in 27th, and Luis-Leon Sanchez in 30th. All in all, RadioShack finished with the best time of the day, a full 4'35" ahead of Caisse D'Epargne, thus giving themselves a solid 4'27" lead in the team competition that in theory should grow even more over the next two stages. At this point, RadioShack can focus a little more on getting Armstrong a stage win. Meanwhile, there was not much action in the polka-dot jersey race, as none of the riders who were already near the top of the standings were in the breakaway. Thomas Voeckler jumps all the way into third place with a 60 point effort today. He is likely spent, however, and we're most likely not to see him in contention tomorrow, where 90 points are at stake.

*****

Note on Contador attack: There has already been a split reaction to Alberto Contador's move, and even at Contador's ceremonial reception of the yellow jersey, half the crowd cheered while the other half booed (and you almost never hear crowds boo in cycling). I've read through some good arguments on each side. The best argument in favor of Contador's attack is that Andy Schleck's chain slip could have been the result of improper technique on Schleck's part, as well as improper preparation on the team mechanic's part - not just some freak accident. The best argument against is that Contador should be looking to win the Tour by being the better cyclist than Schleck, not by taking advantage of a misfortune that has nothing to do with cycling skill (which is why the unwritten rule exists in the first place). In the end, we all will never come to agreement, and hopefully those 39 seconds Contador gained today won't end up deciding the Tour. Anyway, my opinion is clear (though admittedly biased from being an anti-Contador fan), and I'll stand by it. I highly doubt that Contador was evaluating the situation as to the possibility that Schleck himself caused the mechanical problem - I think he just saw the opportunity to attack because he thinks that otherwise Schleck could win the Tour - a move of cowardice if you ask me.

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Thomas Voeckler	BBox Bouygues Telecom	4h52'42"
2	Alessandro Ballan	BMC Racing Team	+ 01'20"
3	Aitor Perez	Footon-Servetto	+ 01'20"
7	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 02'50"
8	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 02'50"
9	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 02'50"
12	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 03'29"
13	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 03'29"
14	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 03'29"
15	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 03'55"
16	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 03'55"
17	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 03'55"
19	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 04'08"
21	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 04'08"
22	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 04'08"
24	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 04'08"
30	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 05'44"
32	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 05'44"
37	Nicolas Roche	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 07'52"

*****

Notable GC Standings

1	Alberto Contador	Astana	72h50'42"
2	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 00'08"
3	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 02'00"
4	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 02'13"
5	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 03'39"
6	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 05'01"
7	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 05'25"
8	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 05'45"
9	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 07'12"
10	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 07'51"
11	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 07'58"
12	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 08'19"
13	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 09'02"
14	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 09'15"
15	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 11'14"
17	Nicolas Roche	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 12'34"

*****

Notable Mountains Results

1	Thomas Voeckler	BBox Bouygues Telecom	60 pts
2	Aitor Perez	Footon-Servetto	42 pts
3	Brian Vandborg	Liquigas-Doimo	39 pts
4	Johan Van Summeren	Garmin-Transitions	35 pts
5	Alessandro Ballan	BMC Racing Team	32 pts
6	Lloyd Mondory	AG2R La Mondiale	28 pts
7	Serguei Ivanov	Katusha	27 pts
8	Sébastien Turgot	BBox Bouygues Telecom	18 pts
9	Alberto Contador	Astana	14 pts
10	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	12 pts

*****

Notable Mountains Standings

1	Anthony Charteau	BBox Bouygues Telecom	115 pts
2	Jérôme Pineau	Quick Step	92 pts
3	Thomas Voeckler	BBox Bouygues Telecom	82 pts
7	Christophe Moreau	Caisse D'Epargne	68 pts
8	Mario Aerts	Omega Pharma-Lotto	65 pts
9	Damiano Cunego	Lampre-Farnese	63 pts
10	Christophe Riblon	AG2R La Mondiale	60 pts
11	Sandy Casar	FDJ	56 pts
13	Sylvain Chavanel	Quick Step	47 pts
15	Rafael Valls	Footon-Servetto	46 pts

*****

Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16 promises to be the biggest King of the Mountains battleground of the Tour, and it's easy to see the two biggest reasons why. First and most obviously, the four big climbs are worth a maximum of 15, 15, 20, and 40 points each, and this stage has the most mountain points up for grabs out of any single stage on Tour. Second, there is a huge 61.5 km margin between the top of the final climb and the end of the stage. This front-heaviness of the stage means that GC contenders are more likely not to attack, which gives the breakaway a lot more leeway (though given Andy Schleck's angry state, who knows, we may see an early attack from him).

The battle for the polka-dot jersey will only be made more interesting by the order of the climbs in the stage, with the more difficult ones coming later. Polka-dot jersey contenders will have to decide on what strategy they'll use out of many possibilities. The most straightforward option is to attack early to try to get points on all the mountains, at the risk of getting spent before the HC climbs. Another possibility - and one that I see as a great one for the riders already near the top of the ranks - is to have their team work to limit the size of the breakaway and try to get partial credit on the first two or three climbs, then counterattack to try to make the pass on the Col du Tourmalet or the Col d'Aubisque. The polka-dot jersey race is still wide open, but after today, it could be all but decided, with Stage 17 being the only remaining stage with any climbs whatsoever.

Meanwhile, the stage also presents a great opportunity for a breakaway rider to pick up a stage win. The King of the Mountains riders will spend all their energy getting to the top of the Col d'Aubisque at the 138 km mark, and while the rest of the course is fairly downhill, counterattackers will have a good amount of time to make the pass starting from the 155 km mark. Riders looking purely for the stage win will need to have their team control the gap between the peloton and the breakaway, and they will have to time their attack well so that they'll have enough energy to maintain their lead after the descent down the Col d'Aubisque. I'd expect several riders to make such a counterattack and work together towards the end and go for a sprint finish. But of course, the possibility of a rider on the initial breakaway going on to win this monster of a stage like a doped up Floyd Landis lingers.

One noteworthy aspect of the stage is that it goes up the notoriously difficult Col du Tourmalet in the first half of the stage. Such difficult climbs are often saved for closer to the end of mountain stages because they're perfect for GC contenders and would also get double points for being the last climb of the stage. However, the Tour this year is climbing the Tourmalet again as the mountaintop finish of Stage 17, and it will go the more difficult direction then (Stage 16's climb is 17.1 km at 7.3% and Stage 17's is 18.6 km at 7.5%. The riders will descent the same path tomorrow as they will ascend in Stage 17.). Also climbing the Col d'Aubisque is no easy task either, and I even think that having the Tourmalet before the Aubisque will force riders to make decisions, thus making the stage more exciting.

I have no idea who will end up in polka-dots after today, but I do feel like there will be a breakaway finish containing very few, if any, of the KotM riders. After falling out of podium contention, Lance Armstrong has deliberately put himself very far back in the GC in order to get the opportunity to get a breakaway win. Team RadioShack's directeur sportif Johan Bruyneel has also announced that it's Armstrong's intention to go for a stage win. Armstrong still does have the legs to excel in the mountains when no GC riders are in the mix, and he still has the time-trialling skills to sustain a big enough solo lead on the flats. I'd say that in order to get the stage win, Armstrong needs to get a sizable gap going into the intermediate sprints. Riding with a small group will make the breakaway win more likely, but Armstrong would have to compete in a sprint for the eventual win. Because a stage win here would be an excellent swansong for the retiring seven-time Tour win, I'll predict that Lance Armstrong indeed will go solo leading up the Col d'Aubisque, passing the breakaway riders and cruising solo for the stage win.

*****

For full Stage 15 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 16, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website. Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening. Live coverage on Versus begins bright and early at 6:30 AM (ET).

TdF Commentary 7/18

2010-07-18T13:52:00.000-04:00

Stage 14 Recap

Riblon sustains long breakaway for France's 4th win on Tour, GC field thins out but top of the ranks remain stagnant

On a stage where the expected outcome was for the initial breakaway to get caught, Christophe Riblon defied all odds and held off the peloton for the stage victory on the top of the Ax 3 Domaines. Riblon was part of the initial nine-man breakaway that the peloton set on letting go, and it would have been expected that the breakaway would use so much energy maintaining their lead on the flat portion that they would completely deflate once the stage hit the two very difficult climbs. Very quickly the group of nine diminished to just three as riders had difficulty keeping up on the climb. Then eventually the three became just one, and the peloton was able to pass all the breakaway riders except for the eventual stage victor, even though he began the climbs with just a four-minute advantage over the peloton. Riblon's stage win is the fourth this year for France, who are overachieving this year in an era where cycling is dominated by riders from other countries while France waits for their next Bernard Hinault or Laurent Fignon.

Meanwhile, the story of the peloton was yet again Astana. Alberto Contador's team once again pushed the pace of the peloton as they chased the leaders, and the team probably led the peloton for almost all of the second half of today's stage. The pace of the chase was unexpectedly fast on the flat, and once the peloton reached the beginning of the Port de Palhères, the fast pace quickly began to take its toll on the peloton, and the group diminished to about 30 within a matter of a few minutes. A few attacks were launched on the peloton, including ones by Carlos Sastre and Rafael Valls, as they looked to pass Riblon for the stage victory. None of the attackers were threats to the top ranks of the GC and so the peloton saw no reason to chase. Unfortunately for the attackers, they weren't able to really build a lead of more than about 30" on the peloton, and Christophe Riblon was having the ride of his life to hold on for the stage win. As a consolation, Valls got 14 mountains points on the Port de Palhères, reaching the top of the climb before the peloton, which was attacked by polka-dot jersey holder Anthony Charteau for 8 points, with Damiano Cunego and Christophe Moreau sprinting at the top for 7 and 6 points, respectively. There is still a long way to go in the King of the Mountains competition, but Charteau, Valls, Cunego, and Moreau are all among the top contenders for the prize.

Once again on the climbs it was Astana setting the tempo in the front of the peloton, in an effort to stretch out the group and possibly drop a few rivals leading into the final climb up the Ax 3 Domaines. It was the final push by Astana's Alexandre Vinokourov at the base of the Ax 3 Domaines that really shattered the group, somewhat surprisingly dropping some GC contenders like Ivan Basso, Roman Kreuziger, Levi Leipheimer, and Robert Gesink. Gesink would eventually fight his way back into the peloton, but all the others saw themselves losing time to the peloton, which was reduced to just seven riders by the end of Vinokourov's shift up front.

To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Alberto Contador launched an attack on the final climb. Andy Schleck was able to stay on Contador's wheel the whole time, and the rest of the lead peloton chased down the two right after. Contador would then launch another attack that was only matched by Schleck, Denis Menchov, and Samuel Sanchez. The second biggest surprise of the day (after Riblon's victory) was an odd decision by Contador and Schleck to slow down (at one point almost to a full stop) and mark each other. The two realize that no one else can compete for the top two GC spots, and so, realizing that neither will get time on the other today, they decided to slow down and save energy for the difficult stages ahead. However, at the time of their deceleration, they were in a group consisting of only the top four GC riders, and giving up time could have meant (in a worst-case scenario) someone like Menchov or Sanchez all of a sudden being in the running for the yellow jersey. Presumably, after a while they realized that they couldn't afford to lose too much time to Menchov and Sanchez, and both worked back into the chase group containing Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Joaquin Rodriguez, and Robert Gesink.

Meanwhile, just up ahead was a heated battle between Denis Menchov and Samuel Sanchez, who was ahead of Menchov by just 13" in the battle for third place. Menchov looked scary with his aggression and with a couple of attacks was able to get a gap of about seven or eight seconds on Sanchez. Sanchez was able to keep Menchov within sight though, and once they reached the top of the climb, Sanchez was able to catch Menchov on the 1.3 km flat segment between the peak and the finish line. The Contador/Schleck group finished 14" behind and minimized their losses to Menchov and Sanchez, while other GC hopefuls trickled into the finish.

Unsurprisingly, the GC battle is heating up, and with three very difficult stages ahead there is sure to be lots of excitement. In the battle for yellow, while Andy Schleck is currently wearing the jersey, the advantage remains with Alberto Contador, who can easily erase at least a minute off Schleck's lead in the time trial alone. The contest for third is no less exciting, but quickly it's looking like Denis Menchov and Samuel Sanchez are a notch above the rest of the pack. There is a long way to go though, and we could still be seeing a six-way battle for third (Sanchez, Menchov, Van Den Broeck, Gesink, Leipheimer, Rodriguez). The rest of the GC riders will have to just ride for their paychecks and compete for a top five or top ten finish. In the GC standings, Menchov and Sanchez inch closer to Contador and Schleck, but it's unlikely we'll see the two leaders slow down enough to give up their lead. The other significant movements in the GC standings are Levi Leipheimer's drop from 6th to 7th after getting dropped from the lead group today, and Roman Kreuziger falling two spots to 12th. Because we'll see a lot of GC action for the next few days, I'll expand the "Notable GC Standings" to include at least the top 15 every day in the Pyrenees.

Likewise, there is sure to be a ton of action in the King of the Mountains competition, and while Anthony Charteau is in polka dots now, his lead is deceptive and can easily be erased in one day. With a maximum of 226 mountains points up for grabs in the Pyrenees (63 tomorrow, 90 in Stage 16, and 73 in Stage 17), the competition is still wide open, and some of the top competitors for the prize may still be very low in the current standings. It will most likely come down to Stage 16, which not only has 90 points at stake, but also the added benefit of not having the GC contenders in the mix, as is rather likely to be the case on the final climbs of Stages 15 and 17, each worth 40 points. Because of all the movement that will occur, I'm also expanding the "Notable Mountains Standings" to include the top 10 mountains points holders, other than GC riders out of the top 3 in the KotM competition.

In other news, the team competition remains a tight two-way race between Team RadioShack and Caisse D'Epargne. Caisse D'Epargne had a great day today, with three riders in the top 16, while RadioShack had their three riders in the top 22. Caisse D'Epargne now once again takes the lead, with an eight second advantage over their rivals. Caisse D'Epargne has been riding inexplicably great, and RadioShack, which initially looked like a team with four possible GC options, now actually looks quite weak in the mountains. Today's top three finishers from RadioShack were, in order, Levi Leipheimer, Chris Horner, and Andreas Klöden. Meanwhile, Lance Armstrong and Jani Brajkovic both soft-pedaled to the finish 15'14" behind. This should be alarming to Team RadioShack because while Horner is known for being a solid and consistent rider, he should still be the team's fifth option, and to compete against Caisse D'Epargne as they are riding now, RadioShack will need to have everybody except for Horner pick up their game.

And also, while today was most certainly a mountains stage, as I mentioned yesterday, it did end up having a big impact on the green jersey race in the form of Thor Hushovd's inability to join the breakaway and claim intermediate sprint points. Hushovd can still potentially pick up 12 points on intermediate sprints in the mountains, but now he'll have to join two breakaways (on Stages 15 and 17) to do that, whereas those 12 points could have easily been won by a single breakaway on today's stage. Hushovd has shown no indication whatsoever that he can beat or even come close to matching green jersey holder Alessandro Petacchi on the bunch sprints, and at this point all Petacchi has to do to win the overall prize is just to not mess up big time on the presumed bunch sprints on Stages 18 and 20.

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Christophe Riblon	AG2R La Mondiale	4h52'42"
2	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 00'54"
3	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 00'54"
4	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 01'08"
5	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 01'08"
6	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 01'08"
7	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 01'08"
8	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 01'08"
10	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 01'49"
11	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 01'53"
12	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 02'00"
13	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 02'00"
14	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 02'02"
18	Nicolas Roche	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 02'27"
21	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 02'30"
28	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 03'03"

*****

Notable GC Standings

1	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	68h02'30"
2	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 00'31"
3	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 02'31"
4	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 02'44"
5	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 03'31"
6	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 04'27"
7	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 04'51"
8	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 04'58"
9	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 05'56"
10	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 06'52"
11	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 07'04"
12	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 07'11"
13	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 07'17"
14	Nicolas Roche	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 08'03"
15	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 08'15"

*****

Notable Mountains Results

1	Christophe Riblon	AG2R La Mondiale	50 pts
2	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	26 pts
3	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	22 pts
8	Rafael Valls	Footon-Servetto	14 pts
10	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	12 pts
14	Anthony Charteau	BBox Bouygues Telecom	8 pts
15	Damiano Cunego	Lampre-Farnese	7 pts
16	Christophe Moreau	Caisse D'Epargne	6 pts

*****

Notable Mountains Standings

1	Anthony Charteau	BBox Bouygues Telecom	115 pts
2	Jérôme Pineau	Quick Step	92 pts
3	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	76 pts
5	Christophe Moreau	Caisse D'Epargne	68 pts
6	Mario Aerts	Omega Pharma-Lotto	65 pts
7	Damiano Cunego	Lampre-Farnese	63 pts
9	Christophe Riblon	AG2R La Mondiale	60 pts
10	Sandy Casar	FDJ	56 pts
12	Sylvain Chavanel	Quick Step	47 pts
14	Rafael Valls	Footon-Servetto	46 pts

*****

Stage 15 Preview

Tomorrow's stage is back-heavy like today's stage, and just like today we can expect an early breakaway to claim mountains points on the first three climbs before losing steam on the 19.3 km climb up the Port de Balès. While the stage isn't a mountaintop finish, it will still be a GC battleground because the stage ends with a descent after a difficult climb. Without any "buffer zone" of a flat segment or easier climb, the peloton won't have enough opportunity to chase down any solo attacker. Because the GC riders will likely be going at a fast pace, this is somewhat likely to be a stage to be won by the peloton, whether it be a GC rider or a climber who sticks with the group and attacks on the final climb or even on the descent. But hey, nobody thought the initial breakaway would succeed in Stage 14 and look what happened.

The descent is perfect for Samuel Sanchez, arguably the sport's most skilled descender, and of course this will be a great opportunity for Sanchez to get some time on his podium rival Denis Menchov. To win the stage, Sanchez will probably have to attack on the Port de Balès get out of the line of sight of his rivals on the descent. Of course, Sanchez does have the ability to open up a gap on the descent should the peloton reach the top of the climb as a group, or even make up some time in case he falls behind. However, the ideal situation for him is to be alone, so that his rivals won't be able to ride his slipstream or follow his line. If Sanchez can stay out of sight, he can easily extend his lead, as those lagging behind won't be able to see what lines he's taking and will take the descent more slowly.

Thus, I'll go with the obvious choice and choose Samuel Sanchez to win the stage. The likes of Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck will probably want to save their energy for the brutal climb up the Col de Tourmalet on the mountaintop finish of Stage 17. The two will just want to minimize their losses and keep Sanchez out of striking distance should the third-place rider successfully attack. For Sanchez, though, this stage suits his strengths exactly, and he can't miss this opportunity to potentially widen the gap between himself and Menchov, and possibly even put himself in the running for the yellow jersey. It would probably be in Sanchez's interests to attack tomorrow, even if he still has Stage 17 to save up for.

*****

For full Stage 14 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 15, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website. Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening. Live coverage on Versus begins at 7:30 AM (ET).

TdF Commentary 7/17

2010-07-17T14:52:00.000-04:00

Stage 13 Recap

Vinokourov hangs on with late attack for stage win, Cavendish leads bunch sprint for 2nd, Petacchi reclaims green... again

Alexandre Vinokourov looked primed for a stage win yesterday, only to lose the lead just before the finish line. Visibly angry at yesterday's performance, Vinokourov continued his arguably renegade tactics and seized an opportunity to sustain a late attack on the peloton for the stage win and his second consecutive combativity award. The stage started out with a breakaway from Juan Antonio Flecha, Pierrick Fedrigo, and Sylvain Chavanel, who are all familiar faces when it comes to breakaways. Chavanel, in particular, so far is looking like a top candidate for the Tour's overall most aggressive rider.

Alessandro Petacchi and Mark Cavendish came into the stage hoping for a bunch sprint, and so the Lampre-Farnese and HTC-Columbia teams did most of the work in the peloton, keeping the gap between the group and the breakaway controlled so that the peloton's pace leading to the final climb wouldn't be too fast. Unfortunately for hybrid sprinter Thor Hushovd - who was hoping to drop the rest of the sprinters - Petacchi's and Cavendish's calculations were correct, and the two were able to hang with the pack during the climb. The bad news for the sprinters is that the catch occurred rather early - 10 km from the finish - and this opened up great opportunities for attacks on the peloton, which was riding relatively slowly to ease the sprinters up the climb.

The first to attack was Alessandro Ballan, who was eventually caught by a few other riders, including Alexandre Vinokourov. To catch the aggressors, the peloton needed to pick up the pace, but this stretched out the group, and many of the sprinters were spit out the back. Other than Robbie McEwen, all of the sprint contenders eventually were able to rejoin the group, which had swallowed up all the attackers except for Vinokourov. With a comfortable lead of around 20" in the final straightaway, "Vino" raised his hands in glory and soft-pedaled to the finish line, giving up several seconds on the peloton to end up with a margin of 13" - perhaps an indication that he is going for stage wins instead of the third spot on the podium in Paris. Now that Vinokourov has his stage win, hopefully Astana can convince the maverick to devote his remaining efforts to helping Alberto Contador instead of wasting his energy on mindless attacks, as he has already done several times this Tour much to the chagrin of Contador and the rest of the team.

Following Vinokourov came the peloton consisting mainly of the sprinters and GC contenders. Even without the help of his teammates (as one of his top teammates crashed out of the Tour and another one was disqualified in Stage 11), Mark Cavendish was able to win the bunch sprint to the line, with Alessandro Petacchi coming in right behind. Once again, Thor Hushovd couldn't find himself in the top five, finishing in 8th. This means Hushovd gave up 8 points to Petacchi and once again the green jersey goes back to the Italian.

This has really been a great green jersey battle similar to Hushovd's battle with Cavendish last year. However, at this point Hushovd's continued disappointment on the bunch sprints will make it difficult for him to win back the jersey. Hushovd will have to try to get points on intermediate sprints on the upcoming mountains stages, and fortunately the next two stages will have some enticing opportunities for him, with 12 potential points tomorrow and 6 the day after. Hushovd will likely need a lead of at least 10 points leading into Stage 18 in order to keep himself in contention for the green jersey. If he doesn't capitalize on the intermediate sprints tomorrow, the deal will essentially be sealed for Alessandro Petacchi.

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Alexandre Vinokourov	Team RadioShack	35 pts
2	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	30 pts
3	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	26 pts
5	José Joaquin Rojas	Caisse D'Epargne	22 pts
8	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	18 pts

*****

Notable Points Standings

1	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	187 pts
2	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	185 pts
3	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	162 pts
4	José Joaquin Rojas	Caisse D'Epargne	144 pts
5	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	138 pts

*****

Stage 14 Preview

At last, the Tour will hit the Pyrenees tomorrow, which will provide four stages of guaranteed brutal action. Unlike in the Alps, the peloton won't be eased into the Pyrenees, and to finish Stage 14, riders will have to negotiate an HC climb immediately followed by a category-1 climb. This will very much be a critical stage for the yellow jersey contenders as opposed to the polka-dot jersey ones. The first thing of note is the rather flat terrain in the first 100 km. Thor Hushovd may find it a great opportunity to try to sneak into a breakaway and compete for points on the two intermediate sprints, and he'll basically have to do this if he wants to see the green jersey again. But of course, the main attractions on the stage are what comes after these first 100 km.

Once again, we have a faux-mountaintop finish, this time with the top of the Ax 3 Domaines coming a kilometer and change away from the finish. Given the tactics of Astana thus far, it's very possible that many of the GC contenders will find themselves losing time to the likes of Alberto Contador not through attacks but through a rapid though steady pace. While the finish atop the Col de Tourmalet will be the granddaddy stage, this stage might actually be Contador's best opportunity to launch an attack. Unlike the Tourmalet, which is difficult because the climb is very long, the Ax 3 Domaines has many steep portions that may be inviting for a Contador attack.

With Andy Schleck's stellar performance in the Alps, it will be hard to predict who will be the better man tomorrow. My heart says Schleck but my brain says Contador. We'll just have to wait until then. Meanwhile, in the battle for third, we may see riders not even try to chase Contador and Schleck anymore should they attack, and instead just focus on their own battle. We may see even more riders get placed out of contention for the podium after today, and what's worse is that even with a good performance today, the riders will still have three more very difficult days in the mountains.

I fully expect an early breakaway to form early, but I can't quite predict what will become of it. Those vying for the polka-dot jersey may want to wait until another day; the breakaway will use a lot of energy to build a lead heading into the climbs, and that lead may disappear even before the top of the first climb, depending on the pace of the peloton. If the peloton is riding fast and catches the breakaway before the top of the first climb, it would be an excellent opportunity for King of the Mountains riders to make a push for the top of the Port de Pailhères for a maximum of 20 points. In this case, I foresee a GC contender like Alberto Contador winning the stage. If the peloton rides slow, the stage win will likely go to a breakaway rider, since the climbs come only at the end of the stage. The pace of the peloton will likely depend on the composition of the breakaway, as well as the general strategy each team has over the course of the Tour's sojourn in the Pyrenees.

For the sake of making an official prediction, though, I'll guess that there will be a breakaway victory, that Alberto Contador will ride the wheel of Andy Schleck to finish with the same time as him, and that Denis Menchov will overtake Samuel Sanchez for the third spot in the GC. Actually, the third prediction is not too likely, as Sanchez has looked much better than the rest of the third place contenders, but you never know - I guess that's what makes predictions fun.

*****

For full Stage 13 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 14, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website. Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening. Live coverage on Versus begins at 7:30 AM (ET).

TdF Commentary 7/16

2010-07-16T15:59:00.000-04:00

Stage 12 Recap

Rodriguez takes victory after fast-paced day, Contador gains ten seconds on Schleck, Hushovd and Charteau reclaim green and polka-dot jerseys

As I had expected, today was a day filled with all kinds of action. The pace was very fast from the start, and it wasn't until past 50 km that a successful escape was established. This breakaway group was a large one containing 18 riders and contained Alexandre Vinokourov, Andreas Klöden, Ryder Hesjedal, Thor Hushovd, and Anthony Charteau. Astana, Team RadioShack, and Garmin-Transitions were very smart to have strong riders in Vinokourov and Klöden in the breakaway (though as is always the case with "Vino," you have to question whether his attack was an order from the team or just another example of his maverick cycling). The three riders were out of podium contention but could have been put back into the mix before the Pyrenees with a breakaway victory. Thus, the peloton never eased up, with Andy Schleck's Team Saxo Bank doing almost all the work to reel in the breakaway. The fast pace proved too much for some, including sprinter Tyler Farrar, who abandoned the Tour during the stage.

Thor Hushovd also had a great plan by getting in the breakaway to go for intermediate sprint points. He contested the stage's two intermediate sprints with Alessandro Petacchi's teammate Gregor Bole (whose goal it was to limit how many points Hushovd could get). Hushovd would place second and first, respectively, in the intermediate points to earn 10 points - enough to reclaim the green jersey. This was a great break for Hushovd, who has not been performing well on the bunch sprints and needs to take points on as many opportunities as he can if he is to end the Tour with the green jersey. Meanwhile, Jérôme Pineau's King of the Mountains rival thus far Anthony Charteau was also in the breakaway to try to rack up on some more mountain points. The breakaway was first over three of the day's five climbs, and Charteau picked up 17 points on those climbs, reclaiming the polka-dot jersey, and having enough over a lead over Pineau that he should most likely hold onto the jersey until the Pyrenees.

Leading to the end of the stage, Alexandre Vinokourov, Andreas Klöden, Ryder Hesjedal, and Vasil Kiryienka surged ahead of the breakaway to go for the stage victory. However, none of the leaders were able to shake off counterattackers once they hit the final ascent - a short but very steep climb up the Côte de la Croix-Neuve. The most powerful attack was launched by podium contender Joaquin Rodriguez, who could only be matched by Alberto Contador. The two caught Vinokourov with 2 km to go after passing all the other escapees, and Rodriguez sprinted for the stage win. The last climb was tailor-made for Contador, and Andy Schleck and the other GC contenders paced themselves up the climb to limit their losses.

In the end, there were many time gaps, but none of them were huge. There was some shakeup in the GC though. Joaquin Rodriguez with his impressive stage win steals the 8th spot from Luis-Leon Sanchez, Roman Kreuziger overtakes his teammate Ivan Basso for 10th, and Alexandre Vinokourov now sits at 12th over Ryder Hesjedal. Team RadioShack's solid performance today also gives them the lead in the team classification. Caisse D'Epargne has been their only remaining competitor since several days ago, and the two teams have done their best to match each other (i.e. in breakaways). In theory, Team RadioShack should be able to extend their lead in the mountains and hold the yellow dossards all the way until Paris.

If Rodriguez hadn't launched his late attack, we may have seen Contador just stay back with the rest of the group, because 1) he is happy with his position now and wants to save up for the Pyrenees and time trial and 2) his teammate Alexander Vinokourov would have gotten the stage win. While today's performance shows that Alberto Contador at this point is still the guy to beat, it doesn't necessarily take away from Andy Schleck's chances - today's climb was just not for him, and he did well in limiting his loss to ten seconds. As the race hits the longer climbs of the Pyrenees, we'll be able to see who's really the better climber.

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	4h58'26"
2	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 00'00"
3	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 00'04"
4	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 00'10"
5	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 00'10"
6	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 00'10"
7	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 00'10"
8	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 00'10"
9	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 00'15"
10	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 00'15"
11	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 00'17"
16	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 00'31"
19	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 00'31"
24	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 00'53"

*****

Notable GC Standings

1	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	58h42'01"
2	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 00'31"
3	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 02'45"
4	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 02'58"
5	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 03'31"
6	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 04'06"
7	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 04'27"
8	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 04'58"
9	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 05'02"
10	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 05'16"
11	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 05'30"
12	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 06'25"
13	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 06'25"

*****

Stage 13 Preview

Just like Stage 2, Stage 13 has a category-3 climb very close to the finish, and hopefully the peloton won't have to go through the ugly events of Stage 2 again. Instead, I expect the typical breakaway followed by a chase led by Thor Hushovd's Cervélo TestTeam. Many of the other sprinters will not be able to keep up with the fast pace up the final climb and will find themselves out of contention for the sprint. Hushovd needs to place well on this stage if he wants to hold onto the green jersey, as the only remaining point opportunities are Stages 18 and 20 - which favor the pure sprinters. Cervélo TestTeam will need to make sure the breakaway doesn't get away, and they will need to make a pace towards the end at a speed such that Hushovd can keep up, but the other sprinters cannot. With that being said, I'll predict that the now desperate Thor Hushovd will indeed get the win and solidify his lead on the green jersey race.

*****

For full Stage 12 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 13, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website. Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening. Live coverage on Versus begins at 8:30 AM (ET).

TdF Commentary 7/15

2010-07-15T17:36:00.004-04:00

Stage 11 Recap

Another bunch sprint - another win for Mark Cavendish, Petacchi overtakes Hushovd for green jersey

Today was, for the most part, a lazy day for the Tour's riders, who still must be recovering from the events early in the race, as well as the Alps and blistering heat. The day's breakaway containing Anthony Geslin (FDJ), Stephane Augé (Cofidis), and José Benitez (Footon-Servetto) was formed immediately following the drop of the starting flag. Even while riding at a rather leisurely pace, the peloton limited the advantage of the breakaway to a maximum of 5'05". Even with as much as 50 km to go, the peloton had already reduced the lead to around 1'30" without even putting much effort into a chase, and so the peloton lingered behind the leaders for a while, and an eventual bunch sprint finish was inevitable.

The catch occurred with a full 25 km from the finish, and so the peloton had to really pick up the pace to prevent late attacks. Sylvain Chavanel made a run for his money, but with the peloton traveling at an incredible speed of around 40 mph, successful attacks were basically impossible. The Lampre-Farnese team was organized early and had Alessandro Petacchi in prime position, but once again it was Team HTC-Columbia that pulled up their train alongside Lampre's and set up Mark Cavendish for a dominating win.

Leading up to the line, Tyler Farrar's leadout man Julian Dean was in the front of the pack, followed by Cavendish. Cavendish's leadout man Mark Renshaw used some sketchy tactics of repeatedly headbutting Dean in order to place himself in the best position to launch his teammate. Some contact is normal in a sprint and riders can even jostle for position as long as they maintain their line. However, Renshaw's headbutts were very blatant and potentially dangerous. Renshaw would even peel out directly into traffic, blocking out some of the riders behind (most particularly Tyler Farrar, who for a while was pinned between Renshaw and the wall). This strategy is also very questionable and dangerous for the entire peloton. As a result, it has been announced Renshaw has been thrown out of the Tour de France. However, in the end there was no stopping Mark Cavendish regardless. As soon as Alessandro Petacchi passed Renshaw, Cavendish made his huge acceleration and had over two bike lengths between himself and Petacchi for most of the sprint.

Once again, Thor Hushovd finished with a disappointing position in the bunch sprint. Hushovd built a seemingly unbeatable lead in the green jersey race early in the Tour, but his underwhelming performances have cost him points on every sprint stage, and Alessandro Petacchi has chipped away enough to reclaim the jersey. Fortunately for Hushovd, Stage 13 is a stage essentially designed for him. Hushovd absolutely must do well in Stage 13 if he wants to wear the green jersey again. Now without Mark Renshaw, Mark Cavendish may have a more difficult time getting stage wins, and Alessandro Petacchi will look to capitalize on that in the two remaining bunch sprints (Stages 18 and 20).

*****

Side note on Mark Renshaw's expulsion: The Tour's sprinting rules are not exactly set in stone, and the way the rules are written basically brings it down to the judgment of the organizers. The only definite rule is that you're not allowed to drift from your line in order to cut off a rider behind you. Other than that, the only other rule it seems is the endangerment rule, which can be interpreted in many different ways. Generally, something like taking your hands off the handlebars to push someone will result in a penalty, whereas other types of collisions will often slide. Sprinters will often push each other with their shoulders as they battle for position, but if they do something that the organizers deem "dangerous," then they will be penalized. Unfortunately, this sometimes results in inconsistent enforcement of the rule, as is often the case with headbutts.

However, because Renshaw's headbutts were used in an offensive fashion (as opposed to maintaining balance), and because he was headbutting Julian Dean repeatedly and powerfully, I am in agreement with the penalty he received. In addition, his drifting straight into Tyler Farrar's line is the same type of violation that gets many sprinters penalties, although the context is different in the case. Usually what happens is that a sprinter will have a slight lead and then drift to the side to block off someone trying to pass him. In this case, Renshaw wasn't contesting the sprint, and instead of peeling off away from the pack or straight backwards as leadout men usually do, Renshaw peeled back directly into a line that cut off traffic. Typically a sprinter in violation will merely get all his points removed for the day but be able to race, but Renshaw wasn't so lucky and got a full expulsion. This is either because he had multiple violations or because he was a leadout man not in contention for points anyway (so eliminating points would have had no effect as a penalty).

There is an excellent video great explanation of some of the inconsistencies in enforcing sprinting penalties here. As for my opinion on the rules, I have no problem with the rules as they stand. Most of the time, such as today, the violations are obvious. Once in a while there is a close call that will make someone angry no matter what, but I don't believe that it's even possible to make set rules (i.e. how do you decide "how much" someone can push or headbutt someone else?). The best way to avoid the endangerment penalty is to sprint safely and fairly.

*****

Another Renshaw update: Renshaw claims that the reason he was headbutting Julian Dean was because Dean was using his left elbow in front of Renshaw's own right elbow in order to prevent Renshaw from moving ahead. After looking at the replay of the sprint, that certainly seems to be the case, and it is indeed a sneaky but legal technique from Dean. I had thought that Renshaw just wanted to knock Dean out of position, but this was not exactly the case. Strategically then, Renshaw's headbutts were justified, but they still did seem to have enough power to be considered a dangerous maneuver worthy of penalty. And there is no doubt that his peeling out was extremely dangerous, so his expulsion is still justified.

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	30 pts
2	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	30 pts
3	Tyler Farrar	Garmin-Transitions	26 pts
4	José Joaquin Rojas	Caisse D'Epargne	24 pts
5	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	22 pts
7	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	19 pts

*****

Notable Points Standings

1	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	161 pts
2	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	157 pts
3	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	138 pts
4	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	132 pts
5	José Joaquin Rojas	Caisse D'Epargne	122 pts

*****

Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12 is one of the weirder profiles of the Tour, because while it doesn't have very difficult climbs or very many climbs, the stage is rolling for nearly its entirety. The most glaring portion of the course is the quasi-mountaintop finish, which is only a category-2 climb, but has grades of almost 11% close to the top.

This final climb could actually be a great opportunity for Alberto Contador to launch an attack, as he is miles ahead of the rest of the pack when it comes to climbs of 10%+ grade. However, Contador is also very content with his position right now and may just choose to wait until the Pyrenees to become aggressive. I expect him to just try to stay with Andy Schleck.

The breakaway is quite likely to contain the likes of Jérôme Pineau and Anthony Charteau, who are in a tight two-way battle for the polka-dot jersey before the race hits the Pyrenees. A breakaway victory is very possible, but so is a victory by a GC contender. Once again, it's a weird stage - GC contenders don't often get stage wins except on mountain stages and time trials, but with shortage of flat ground in this stage, they may just find themselves in front without having to go harder than they normally do. This stage could be a good opportunity for Damiano Cunego to make another run at a stage win, as the final climb should suit him better than any other possible breakaway riders.

*****

For full Stage 11 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 12, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website. Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening. Live coverage on Versus begins at 8:30 AM (ET).

TdF Commentary 7/14

2010-07-14T18:00:00.001-04:00

Stage 10 Recap

Paulinho wins stage on breakaway, French denied Bastille Day win, Pineau reclaims polka-dots

The peloton thwarted all attacks in the beginning of the stage, keeping the group together long enough for the sprinters to contest the intermediate sprint. Alessandro Petacchi won the sprint, claiming 6 points, with Thor Hushovd getting 4 points and Robbie McEwen getting 2. After the sprint, a four-man breakaway formed, which, surprisingly, did not contain any Frenchmen on this Bastille Day stage. It was only several kilometers later when two Frenchmen would start a chase, eventually catching the leaders after around 20 km of chasing. The peloton eased up and committed to riding easy on the stage, to minimize risk and save energy. Since only six riders were in the breakaway, some mountains points were left up for grabs on the day's first climb. Jérôme Pineau and Anthony Charteau burst ahead of the peloton, with Pineau beating Charteau to the line to reclaim the polka-dot jersey.

The breakaway stayed together until the final climb (which was not categorized). Sergio Paulinho (Team RadioShack) and Vasil Kiryienka (Caisse D'Epargne) burst ahead and could not be matched by anybody. The two stayed together all the way to the end and had a comfortable gap over the others, and eventually Paulinho outsprinted Kiryienka by just a few inches. All the riders in the breakaway were well out of contention for the GC, so the peloton eased the pace, conceding the top six places in the stage to the breakaway riders. The huge gap between the peloton and the leaders discouraged counterattacks, and the very slow pace of the peloton also meant that the sprinters could stay with the group.

Nicolas Roche attacked the peloton late and crossed the line with enough of a lead to move himself from 17th to 13th in the GC. Rémi Pauriol also finished slightly ahead of the peloton (likely a Bastille Day-inspried attack), and Mark Cavendish eventually won the bunch sprint contested by the peloton for 9th place. Alessandro Petacchi also finished one spot ahead of Thor Hushovd, and all in all reduced Hushovd's advantage in the green jersey race from 10 points to 7. The peloton finished more or less intact, 14'19" behind Paulinho - so other than Roche's gain, there are no changes to the top of the GC ranks. Because of Paulinho's and Kiryienka's success today, Team RadioShack and Caisse D'Epargne now have a commanding lead over the rest of the field in the team classification, with Caisse D'Epargne in the lead by 31 seconds. Despite Team RadioShack's underwhelming performance so far, expect them to take control of the team classification in the Pyrenees.

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Sergio Paulinho	Team RadioShack	25 pts
2	Vasil Kiryienka	Caisse D'Epargne	22+6 pts
9	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	12 pts
10	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	11+6 pts
11	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	10+4 pts
12	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	9+2 pts
15	José Joaquin Rojas	Caisse D'Epargne	6 pts

*****

Notable Points Standings

1	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	138 pts
2	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	131 pts
3	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	116 pts
4	José Joaquin Rojas	Caisse D'Epargne	98 pts
5	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	97 pts

*****

Notable Mountains Standings

1	Jérôme Pineau	Quick Step	91 pts
2	Anthony Charteau	BBox Bouygues Telecom	90 pts
3	Christophe Moreau	Caisse D'Epargne	62 pts
4	Mario Aerts	Omega Pharma-Lotto	58 pts
5	Damiano Cunego	Lampre-Farnese	56 pts

*****

Stage 11 Preview

Now is usually the point in the race where the sprinters will start taking over for several days before the Tour reaches the second mountains stint. However, the organizers were not so nice to the sprinters this year, and Stage 11 is really the only opportunity for pure sprinters to get a stage win between the Alps and the Pyrenees, as Stage 12 is a category-2 mountaintop finish, Stage 13 has a climb close to the end of the stage, and Stage 14 is already in the Pyrenees.

The steady ascent from the beginning of the stage to the climb up the Col de Cabre is not as troublesome as it looks in the picture - it should be less than a 1% gradient on average. Sprinters should have no problem staying with the pack until the climb, and they will have plenty of time to catch up afterwards should they fall behind. As usual, expect the usual breakaway of non-contenders hoping for a stage win, followed by the peloton's chase and a sprint finish. Tomorrow could easily be a third stage win for Mark Cavendish.

*****

For full Stage 10 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 11, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website. Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening. Live coverage on Versus begins at 8:30 AM (ET).