Oscar nominations were unveiled on Tuesday, and while previously it looked like The Social Network was a shoo-in for the win (as it was racking up a lot of other awards), it now looks like there will be some competition from The King's Speech, which surprised many by receiving the most Oscar nominations (12) of any film. I can already say that the ten nominees are not the same as my ten favorite films of the year, and I'll release my top ten at a later time. Here is my personal ranking of the ten nominees (along with a brief comment on each), which will definitely not reflect the opinions of the Academy.
#10 - The Fighter
A boxing movie that is fun but overacted just about to the point of being annoying. In such films, it's important that we really care for the main character as a human being. However, in this case, all the attention is stolen by supporting characters. While the story of Christian Bale's character is intriguing, the other characters in the family are impossible to take seriously, which is a problem in a movie that in theory should strive for realism. To compare The Fighter to Rocky and Raging Bull is blasphemy.
#9 - True Grit
Certainly a solid re-imagination of the novel, and while I did find some aspects to be improvements over the 1969 film, there were also aspects that were weaker, and so I question the need for another film adaptation. In this version, I like the darker tone as well as the overall acting. However, in terms of storytelling, I prefer the older film, which features Rooster Cogburn (John Wayne / Jeff Bridges) as more of a main character as opposed to faithfully sticking to the perspective of Mattie Ross (Kim Darby / Hailee Steinfield).
#8 - Toy Story 3
With the expansion of the Best Picture nominees to ten films, I get the impression that each year's Pixar film will be a near lock for nomination, which is a great compliment to Pixar, though I feel that the quality has dropped off since WALL-E. Certainly Toy Story 3 was an enjoyable and emotional experience, but to me, it was more solid than special. I respect Pixar's unique ability to make films that appeal to all ages, but for the adults, this sequel probably relied too much on the nostalgia factor that I might have had if I were in love with the first two Toy Story films.
#7 - 127 Hours
I'll agree with the consensus that 127 Hours is impressive in that it makes a thoroughly entertaining movie out of a plot that is 90% described by the sentence "a man gets his arm stuck under a rock." In a way, this film is similar to The Hurt Locker in that both films really dig deep not into your emotions but into your actual sensations. Danny Boyle makes the most out of the plot through effective use of sound and cinematography, and especially an Oscar-worthy performance from James Franco, whose character goes through everything from emotional flashbacks to farcical self-interviews.
#6 - The Kids Are All Right
I'm not sure why movies of this type are always billed as comedy-dramas (Sideways comes to mind) when really they're just character-driven dramas with no more than a moment or two of comic relief and sometimes a couple of quirks. With that rant aside, The Kids Are All Right is very enjoyable and explores family-related situations beyond what I've seen from any other film. The acting really drives the film, with the most memorable performance by Annette Bening, along with a solid and completely contrasting performance from Mark Ruffalo.
#5 - The King's Speech
The King's Speech, much like its Oscars rival The Social Network is high in the likability factor in that both films are rather straightforward and can be enjoyed easily without too much effort on the part of the viewer's intellect or emotions. Rather, these two films rely on great dialogue and acting for more organic entertainment. I can't say that the film has any aspects that will stick with me for the rest of my life, but it is definitely a solid, entertaining, and very likable film that revolves around the uninhibited performances of Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush.
#4 - Winter's Bone
It's great to see the low-budget Sundance Film Festival winner included in the nominees this year. Winter's Bone has its foundation on a strong main character and an atmosphere that is mysterious and unsettling. Instead of being told a story, we instead live through the story, basically experiencing ourselves the ordeal of Jennifer Lawrence's character Ree Dolly. In addition to Lawrence's subtle yet compelling performance, the genuineness and stark realism of the film is what brings it as high as #4 on this list.
#3 - The Social Network
If I could describe this film in one word, it would be "solid." Not mind-blowing, but solid. Aaron Sorkin's fast-paced, witty script is the main star here, and the acting (with a few exceptions) is strong enough to do the writing justice. I hate to say it, but I get the impression that the "true story effect" (i.e. the notion that when a film is based off a true story, it is automatically better) is really inflating the critical response to this film. While I do appreciate the film's relevance to real life, it still for me lacks the "oomph" factor for me to rank it any higher than #3 on a weak year.
#2 - Black Swan
The start of the movie is rather slow and has more of a horror-like feel, but the film gradually accelerates to a finale that is so good that it pushes the movie above a more overall solid effort (The Social Network) in my rankings. The horror aspect seems random at first, but it really comes together by the middle. Natalie Portman's acting makes her a frontrunner for the Best Actress award, and the camerawork is especially superb - as if the camera is dancing ballet itself.
#1 - Inception
The only movie of the bunch that made me go "whoa." Inception was engaging from beginning to end, and created a world that was so engrossing and evocative, while maintaining a high level of entertainment by avoiding an overly convoluted plot. Leonardo DiCaprio once again shows us here (and in Shutter Island) why he is one of the greatest actors of our generation, yet he continues to be overlooked by the critics. Sadly, the film is essentially out of the running for Best Picture, as director Christopher Nolan was - for a second film in a row (The Dark Knight) - snubbed of a Best Director nomination.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Friday, January 21, 2011
Best MMA Fights of 2010
It's a bit late for this, but here are my thoughts on some of the best action from a great year in mixed martial arts. These fights represent my favorite fights of the past year. Definitely the top criterion in the selection of these fights was the "enjoyment" factor, which for me is a combination of excitement that pleases the fight fan in me and the technical elegance that pleases the martial arts fan in me. This enjoyment takes into consideration not only the fight itself, but also the context - the fighters' previous history and tendencies, along with the buildup to the fight. What I weigh less than other rankings is the significance factor - a factor that puzzles me because gems like Bonnar vs. Soszynski and Hominick vs. Jabouin must not be overlooked just because they weren't high-profile title fights. However, do note that in selecting these fights, I only considered the "major" MMA organizations (UFC, WEC, Strikeforce, Bellator, DREAM, and Sengoku).
I've also almost finished up deciding on my favorite knockouts and submissions of the past year, and I will publish those in a future post, though as of right now I don't know whether or not I'll take the effort to make comments/write-ups for each entry as I will do here. Anyway, without further ado...
A couple things about Mark Munoz: 1) He arguably has the most dangerous ground-and-pound for anyone not named Brock Lesnar. 2) His standup striking, while powerful, is slow and leaves many openings. 3) Whenever Munoz gets rocked, his first reaction is to latch on to his opponent's ankle, as opposed to, say, getting out of danger. That being said, Munoz is one of the most exciting fighters to watch in the sport because despite often getting himself into frustrating situations, if Munoz can find himself on top of his opponent, it's good night Irene, as Michael Schiavello would say. This UFC 112 prelim, thankfully, made it to the Spike TV broadcast, and let's just say that it made up for the Anderson Silva vs. Demian Maia debacle. Other than an early takedown (that Grove scrambled out of while taking minimal damage) and a couple haymakers, the opening round was all Grove, who stunned Munoz and proceeded to lay the smackdown on Munoz's head as he - well - latched onto Grove's leg. Later in the round Grove would attempt three dangerous looking chokes, but Munoz was able to power out of them and survive the round. Munoz looked fresh at the start of the second round, but a knee from Grove sent him down to the mat again. After some groundwork, Grove would start working for another submission (an armbar this time). Bad idea. Munoz escaped and ended up on top, where he pounded out Grove to get the amazing comeback victory.
#9 - Ben Henderson vs. Anthony Pettis (WEC 53)
This fight will always be remembered for Anthony Pettis's flying kick off the cage, but overall it was a solid fight that was an excellent coda for the WEC in its last event before being folded into the UFC. The fight itself was as action-packed as people expected judging from who the two fighters were, and the kick was really what pushed this fight into the top ten. Both Henderson and Pettis had already proven themselves to be exciting, high-energy fighters, and especially with Pettis, you never know what to expect (who saw the au batido cartwheel kick coming in his bout against Shane Roller?). The first two rounds had great action both on the feet on the ground, and rounds three and four saw each fighter able to get his opponent in a dangerous position that could have ended in a submission had it not been for excellent submission defense. With four rounds in the books, each fighter had two rounds a piece (well, at least on two of the three judges' scorecards). That's when the kick came, flush on Henderson's jaw. Miraculously, Henderson didn't get knocked out, which provides support for my theory that Henderson must have some weird physiology going on (after getting "submitted" three times by Donald Cerrone in their epic 2009 battle but surviving and going on to win). That kick essentially marked the end of Henderson's tenure as WEC champion, as Pettis was able to take over the rest of the round and secure the win. Pettis will not get an immediate UFC title shot as originally promised, but he will remain an excellent prospect and definitely one of MMA's most exciting fighters to watch.
#8 - B.J. Penn vs. Frank Edgar I (UFC 112)
This lightweight title fight ended in one of the most controversial decisions of the year (along with Garcia vs. Phan and Jackson vs. Machida), but there's no denying that it was a great, technical battle, if not at the very least for the surprise factor when Edgar, a 10 to 1 underdog, showed that he could be competitive with arguably the greatest lightweight of all time. Edgar showed off his cardio with nonstop in-and-out movement combined with beautiful transitions between striking and takedown attempts. The challenger was even able to score a few takedowns on the champ, who is notoriously difficult to take down. Meanwhile, Penn stuck to his style of stalking his opponent and using accurate but powerful boxing. Nearly every round was a close, technical endeavor, and while neither fighter was really ever in danger of being finished, the fight did still provide "holy ****" moments when Edgar scored takedowns. In the end, I scored the fight 48-47 for Edgar but would not have been upset with a 48-47 victory for Penn. The judges, however, saw it as more of a one-sided affair in Edgar's favor, including a 50-45 card from Doug Crosby, who would later make a strange post on the internet defending his decision. Because of the closeness of the fight, the controversial decision, the theories that Penn's relatively poor performance was a fluke, and the lack of another clear-cut contender meant an immediate rematch would be made. Edgar would dominate Penn to a clear decision and later defend his belt again in a draw against Gray Maynard that will inevitably land in the list of the top ten fights in 2011.
#7 - Chris Leben vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama (UFC 116)
Our first of three entries from UFC 116 (which, unsurprisingly, I regard as the year's best card) features both great action and an unlikely story. Just one year ago, Leben was going through rough personal issues and had more of a gatekeeper role in the UFC after posting unimpressive results. Just two weeks before this fight, Leben made a comeback victory to defeat Aaron Simpson (also a great fight). Akiyama, meanwhile, was scheduled to fight Wanderlei Silva in a bout that would possibly determine a top middleweight contender. However, when Silva pulled out of the fight due to injury, he was replaced by none other than Leben, in perhaps one of the year's biggest surprises. Akiyama's camp initially wanted to pull out of the fight because they wanted a stronger opponent, but eventually agreed. The fight was even and action-packed, with Akiyama controlling the grappling and Leben being the better striker. After splitting the first two rounds, Akiyama was able to out-grapple Leben in the third and was looking in good shape to take the win. But with just seconds to go, Leben secured a triangle choke and shockingly forced the judoka to tap out. This win marked Leben's rebirth and placed him back on the map, while also securing his reputation as one of the sport's most likable fighters.
#6 - Stephan Bonnar vs. Krzysztof Soszynski II (UFC 116)
Everyone remembers Stephan Bonnar's epic battle against Forrest Griffin in the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, and with this fight, Bonnar reminded us why his nickname is "The American Psycho." This fight came during a slump in Bonnar's career, with him losing his previous fight to Soszynski in controversial fashion after an accidental headbutt opened up a fight-ending cut (usually these accidents result in "no contests"). Anyway, this fight displayed what I think are two of Bonnar's awesome trademarks: bleeding a lot and flurries of haymakers while looking downward instead of forward (this is especially used as a "defense" in lieu of blocking, keeping distance, or timing counter punches). Both men were exchanging back and forth while the fight lasted, and while Soszynski was able to stun his opponent in the second, Bonnar quickly recovered, eventually dropped Soszynski with a huge knee and finished the job with ground-and-pound. Bonnar's pose for the camera after his victory is unforgettable, and both fighters put on a great show for the fans, with Bonnar perhaps baiting Soszynski into a reckless fight, which is exactly the kind of fight that Bonnar would want every time. Vintage Stephan Bonnar.
#5 - Mark Hominick vs. Yves Jabouin (WEC 49)
The WEC had somewhat of a reputation for always delivering fights that satisfied, which differed from other organizations' approach of lining up good "on paper" match-ups that often underwhelmed. This battle featured a first round that reminds us of one major reason why WEC fights tended to be good - lighter fighters meant better cardio, and better cardio meant more unbroken action. The first round of this fight was a close striking battle in which both fighters were active nonstop. What sets this round apart from others on this list is the level of technicality and precision, which contrasts to other memorable rounds that are more matters of heart and wildness. However, the heart factor was decisive in round two. With Jabouin perhaps in the lead after scoring the more powerful strikes (most notably several spinning back fists and elbows), Hominick downed his opponent with a powerful punch to the liver. Jabouin weathered the storm, however, and proceeded to drop Hominick with a strike of his own. With Jabouin now looking to be in the driver's seat, Hominick pulled out a sweep and was able to finish Jabouin through ground-and-pound. Though the fight didn't have the same electric feel that pervaded many of the more significant fights in this list, it was both exciting and technically brilliant.
#4 - Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin (UFC 116)
After demolishing Frank Mir to avenge his only loss, Brock Lesnar seemed like an unstoppable force. Enter Shane Carwin. Going into an interim title fight with Mir as a slight underdog, Carwin gave Mir a similar brutal beatdown and seemed like an unstoppable force himself. This set up - literally - the biggest heavyweight title fight in UFC history, with both fighters being mega-hulks who cut weight to reach the 265 lb weight limit. The question going into the fight was whether Lesnar's explosive takedowns would trump Carwin's powerful punches. Early in round one, Carwin was able to easily brush off a Lesnar takedown attempt, and for the rest of the round, Carwin laid the smackdown on the former WWE superstar, forcing Lesnar to curl up against the cage. At so many points in the first round, it seemed like the fight was just about to be stopped, but Lesnar was able to use his massive forearms to protect his head and stay in the fight. Despite utterly dominating round one, Carwin had his infamous incident of "lactic acidosis," gassing himself out from all the punching he performed. In round two, Lesnar looked fresh while Carwin was clearly out of steam. Lesnar quickly secured a takedown, passed to mount, and locked in an arm triangle choke to put away the challenger, shock the viewers, and win over many of his former detractors. It wasn't long after that Lesnar would lose his title and aura of invincibility to Cain Velasquez, but regardless, this fight had an electric atmosphere to it that was only matched in 2010 by another certain UFC title fight that would occur about a month later.
#3 - Jorge Santiago vs. Kazuo Misaki II (Sengoku 14)
While the Sengoku championships are not really as highly regarded as those of other larger organizations, who can complain when a great fight goes into the fourth and fifth rounds instead of being stopped after the third? In this case, Sengoku's middleweight champion Jorge Santiago and challenger Kazuo Misaki fought a technical battle that later exploded into an action-fest. While Santiago seemed to have the advantage in the striking department, Misaki was able to take down the Brazilian repeatedly, utilize some ground and pound, and lock in some submission attempts that may have put away fighters not as determined and skilled at jiu-jitsu as Santiago. The first three rounds had some solid technical action, with the first two rounds probably going to Misaki and the third to Santiago. In the fourth, Misaki started beating down the champion, who had to deliberately fall out of the ring to stall for time, resulting in a red card and point deduction. At this point, it was clear that Santiago would need a finish to successfully defend his belt. With seconds left in the fourth round, Santiago landed some great strikes that stunned his foe, then completely took over the fifth round and battered Misaki until the challenger's corner threw in the towel with less than a minute remaining in the fight. This fight had the most energetic crowd I have ever seen at a Japanese MMA event - the Japanese fans are notorious for largely staying silent during fights, as opposed to the American crowd who like to create as much noise as possible. However, this fight was so awesome that the crowd was going wild and chanting, especially in the later rounds.
#2 - Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen (UFC 117)
UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva was at the time considered the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world, and was making quick work of his opponents over the past several years, but in a fashion that caused much of the MMA fan base to lose respect for him. Chael Sonnen, who not that much earlier wasn't even really in the title picture, was the next unlikely challenger for the belt in a middleweight division that lacked a clear cut number two fighter. With his pre-fight interview antics and trash talk, Sonnen made an intriguing situation out of a matchup that many might have otherwise ignored. Come fight night, Sonnen backed up his talk by completely dominating the champion for four and a half rounds, taking him down at will and even outstriking him, which was extremely surprising considering Sonnen's wrestling background and the fact that no other fighter could stand with Silva. Never was such a one-sided fight so entertaining, and Sonnen's trash talk and energy was probably the reason it was that entertaining. (When Sonnen pulled off a kind of somersault in the first round, you know s*** just got real.) With less than three minutes to go, it looked like the end of an era, but in perhaps an homage to his Brazilian jiu-jitsu instructor Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Silva was able to pull off a submission after having sustained a thorough beating. This submission left me frozen in a state of bemusement for several minutes. While the champion was proven to be vulnerable, he showed the heart of a true champion in pulling off the win, while Sonnen also proved that he can back up his talk.
#1 - Leonard Garcia vs. Chan Sung Jung (WEC 48)
This featherweight battle, which was shown for free on Spike as a prelim for WEC's pay-per-view event was fifteen full minutes of sloppy yet ridiculously awesome back-and-forth standup action. For the entire bout, both fighters were swinging at full strength with punches, kicks, knees, and even throwing in some of the crazier techniques like spinning back fists and wheel kicks. The fight was close, with both Garcia and Jung having their moments and with both fighters getting dropped repeatedly and in general getting severely beaten up. You probably couldn't go ten seconds at any point in the fight without seeing some sort of ridiculous action, whether it was both guys swinging wildly at the air or one of them blocking punches with their face. The most memorable part of the fight for me was when a wild exchange knocked Garcia's mouthpiece out of his mouth, which forced a time out. I couldn't help but go crazy when immediately after Garcia put his mouthpiece back on, the two fighters began flailing at each other again as if the timeout hadn't happened at all. In the end, Garcia won a split decision in the controversial manner that has become associated with Garcia's name, and while neither man displayed elite-level technique, they put an incredible display of recklessness and heart, and most importantly put on one of the most purely entertaining fights of all time.
I've also almost finished up deciding on my favorite knockouts and submissions of the past year, and I will publish those in a future post, though as of right now I don't know whether or not I'll take the effort to make comments/write-ups for each entry as I will do here. Anyway, without further ado...
*****
Best Fights of 2010
Just missed the cut
#15 - Sean Sherk vs. Evan Dunham (UFC 119)
#14 - Cub Swanson vs. Mackens Semerzier (WEC 52)
#13 - Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Jason Brilz (UFC 114)
#12 - Carlos Condit vs. Rory MacDonald (UFC 115)
#11 - Josh Thomson vs. Gesias Cavalcante (Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Noons II)
*****
#10 - Kendall Grove vs. Mark Munoz (UFC 112)
A couple things about Mark Munoz: 1) He arguably has the most dangerous ground-and-pound for anyone not named Brock Lesnar. 2) His standup striking, while powerful, is slow and leaves many openings. 3) Whenever Munoz gets rocked, his first reaction is to latch on to his opponent's ankle, as opposed to, say, getting out of danger. That being said, Munoz is one of the most exciting fighters to watch in the sport because despite often getting himself into frustrating situations, if Munoz can find himself on top of his opponent, it's good night Irene, as Michael Schiavello would say. This UFC 112 prelim, thankfully, made it to the Spike TV broadcast, and let's just say that it made up for the Anderson Silva vs. Demian Maia debacle. Other than an early takedown (that Grove scrambled out of while taking minimal damage) and a couple haymakers, the opening round was all Grove, who stunned Munoz and proceeded to lay the smackdown on Munoz's head as he - well - latched onto Grove's leg. Later in the round Grove would attempt three dangerous looking chokes, but Munoz was able to power out of them and survive the round. Munoz looked fresh at the start of the second round, but a knee from Grove sent him down to the mat again. After some groundwork, Grove would start working for another submission (an armbar this time). Bad idea. Munoz escaped and ended up on top, where he pounded out Grove to get the amazing comeback victory.
*****
#9 - Ben Henderson vs. Anthony Pettis (WEC 53)
This fight will always be remembered for Anthony Pettis's flying kick off the cage, but overall it was a solid fight that was an excellent coda for the WEC in its last event before being folded into the UFC. The fight itself was as action-packed as people expected judging from who the two fighters were, and the kick was really what pushed this fight into the top ten. Both Henderson and Pettis had already proven themselves to be exciting, high-energy fighters, and especially with Pettis, you never know what to expect (who saw the au batido cartwheel kick coming in his bout against Shane Roller?). The first two rounds had great action both on the feet on the ground, and rounds three and four saw each fighter able to get his opponent in a dangerous position that could have ended in a submission had it not been for excellent submission defense. With four rounds in the books, each fighter had two rounds a piece (well, at least on two of the three judges' scorecards). That's when the kick came, flush on Henderson's jaw. Miraculously, Henderson didn't get knocked out, which provides support for my theory that Henderson must have some weird physiology going on (after getting "submitted" three times by Donald Cerrone in their epic 2009 battle but surviving and going on to win). That kick essentially marked the end of Henderson's tenure as WEC champion, as Pettis was able to take over the rest of the round and secure the win. Pettis will not get an immediate UFC title shot as originally promised, but he will remain an excellent prospect and definitely one of MMA's most exciting fighters to watch.
*****
#8 - B.J. Penn vs. Frank Edgar I (UFC 112)
This lightweight title fight ended in one of the most controversial decisions of the year (along with Garcia vs. Phan and Jackson vs. Machida), but there's no denying that it was a great, technical battle, if not at the very least for the surprise factor when Edgar, a 10 to 1 underdog, showed that he could be competitive with arguably the greatest lightweight of all time. Edgar showed off his cardio with nonstop in-and-out movement combined with beautiful transitions between striking and takedown attempts. The challenger was even able to score a few takedowns on the champ, who is notoriously difficult to take down. Meanwhile, Penn stuck to his style of stalking his opponent and using accurate but powerful boxing. Nearly every round was a close, technical endeavor, and while neither fighter was really ever in danger of being finished, the fight did still provide "holy ****" moments when Edgar scored takedowns. In the end, I scored the fight 48-47 for Edgar but would not have been upset with a 48-47 victory for Penn. The judges, however, saw it as more of a one-sided affair in Edgar's favor, including a 50-45 card from Doug Crosby, who would later make a strange post on the internet defending his decision. Because of the closeness of the fight, the controversial decision, the theories that Penn's relatively poor performance was a fluke, and the lack of another clear-cut contender meant an immediate rematch would be made. Edgar would dominate Penn to a clear decision and later defend his belt again in a draw against Gray Maynard that will inevitably land in the list of the top ten fights in 2011.
*****
#7 - Chris Leben vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama (UFC 116)
Our first of three entries from UFC 116 (which, unsurprisingly, I regard as the year's best card) features both great action and an unlikely story. Just one year ago, Leben was going through rough personal issues and had more of a gatekeeper role in the UFC after posting unimpressive results. Just two weeks before this fight, Leben made a comeback victory to defeat Aaron Simpson (also a great fight). Akiyama, meanwhile, was scheduled to fight Wanderlei Silva in a bout that would possibly determine a top middleweight contender. However, when Silva pulled out of the fight due to injury, he was replaced by none other than Leben, in perhaps one of the year's biggest surprises. Akiyama's camp initially wanted to pull out of the fight because they wanted a stronger opponent, but eventually agreed. The fight was even and action-packed, with Akiyama controlling the grappling and Leben being the better striker. After splitting the first two rounds, Akiyama was able to out-grapple Leben in the third and was looking in good shape to take the win. But with just seconds to go, Leben secured a triangle choke and shockingly forced the judoka to tap out. This win marked Leben's rebirth and placed him back on the map, while also securing his reputation as one of the sport's most likable fighters.
*****
#6 - Stephan Bonnar vs. Krzysztof Soszynski II (UFC 116)
Everyone remembers Stephan Bonnar's epic battle against Forrest Griffin in the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, and with this fight, Bonnar reminded us why his nickname is "The American Psycho." This fight came during a slump in Bonnar's career, with him losing his previous fight to Soszynski in controversial fashion after an accidental headbutt opened up a fight-ending cut (usually these accidents result in "no contests"). Anyway, this fight displayed what I think are two of Bonnar's awesome trademarks: bleeding a lot and flurries of haymakers while looking downward instead of forward (this is especially used as a "defense" in lieu of blocking, keeping distance, or timing counter punches). Both men were exchanging back and forth while the fight lasted, and while Soszynski was able to stun his opponent in the second, Bonnar quickly recovered, eventually dropped Soszynski with a huge knee and finished the job with ground-and-pound. Bonnar's pose for the camera after his victory is unforgettable, and both fighters put on a great show for the fans, with Bonnar perhaps baiting Soszynski into a reckless fight, which is exactly the kind of fight that Bonnar would want every time. Vintage Stephan Bonnar.
*****
#5 - Mark Hominick vs. Yves Jabouin (WEC 49)
The WEC had somewhat of a reputation for always delivering fights that satisfied, which differed from other organizations' approach of lining up good "on paper" match-ups that often underwhelmed. This battle featured a first round that reminds us of one major reason why WEC fights tended to be good - lighter fighters meant better cardio, and better cardio meant more unbroken action. The first round of this fight was a close striking battle in which both fighters were active nonstop. What sets this round apart from others on this list is the level of technicality and precision, which contrasts to other memorable rounds that are more matters of heart and wildness. However, the heart factor was decisive in round two. With Jabouin perhaps in the lead after scoring the more powerful strikes (most notably several spinning back fists and elbows), Hominick downed his opponent with a powerful punch to the liver. Jabouin weathered the storm, however, and proceeded to drop Hominick with a strike of his own. With Jabouin now looking to be in the driver's seat, Hominick pulled out a sweep and was able to finish Jabouin through ground-and-pound. Though the fight didn't have the same electric feel that pervaded many of the more significant fights in this list, it was both exciting and technically brilliant.
*****
#4 - Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin (UFC 116)
After demolishing Frank Mir to avenge his only loss, Brock Lesnar seemed like an unstoppable force. Enter Shane Carwin. Going into an interim title fight with Mir as a slight underdog, Carwin gave Mir a similar brutal beatdown and seemed like an unstoppable force himself. This set up - literally - the biggest heavyweight title fight in UFC history, with both fighters being mega-hulks who cut weight to reach the 265 lb weight limit. The question going into the fight was whether Lesnar's explosive takedowns would trump Carwin's powerful punches. Early in round one, Carwin was able to easily brush off a Lesnar takedown attempt, and for the rest of the round, Carwin laid the smackdown on the former WWE superstar, forcing Lesnar to curl up against the cage. At so many points in the first round, it seemed like the fight was just about to be stopped, but Lesnar was able to use his massive forearms to protect his head and stay in the fight. Despite utterly dominating round one, Carwin had his infamous incident of "lactic acidosis," gassing himself out from all the punching he performed. In round two, Lesnar looked fresh while Carwin was clearly out of steam. Lesnar quickly secured a takedown, passed to mount, and locked in an arm triangle choke to put away the challenger, shock the viewers, and win over many of his former detractors. It wasn't long after that Lesnar would lose his title and aura of invincibility to Cain Velasquez, but regardless, this fight had an electric atmosphere to it that was only matched in 2010 by another certain UFC title fight that would occur about a month later.
*****
#3 - Jorge Santiago vs. Kazuo Misaki II (Sengoku 14)
While the Sengoku championships are not really as highly regarded as those of other larger organizations, who can complain when a great fight goes into the fourth and fifth rounds instead of being stopped after the third? In this case, Sengoku's middleweight champion Jorge Santiago and challenger Kazuo Misaki fought a technical battle that later exploded into an action-fest. While Santiago seemed to have the advantage in the striking department, Misaki was able to take down the Brazilian repeatedly, utilize some ground and pound, and lock in some submission attempts that may have put away fighters not as determined and skilled at jiu-jitsu as Santiago. The first three rounds had some solid technical action, with the first two rounds probably going to Misaki and the third to Santiago. In the fourth, Misaki started beating down the champion, who had to deliberately fall out of the ring to stall for time, resulting in a red card and point deduction. At this point, it was clear that Santiago would need a finish to successfully defend his belt. With seconds left in the fourth round, Santiago landed some great strikes that stunned his foe, then completely took over the fifth round and battered Misaki until the challenger's corner threw in the towel with less than a minute remaining in the fight. This fight had the most energetic crowd I have ever seen at a Japanese MMA event - the Japanese fans are notorious for largely staying silent during fights, as opposed to the American crowd who like to create as much noise as possible. However, this fight was so awesome that the crowd was going wild and chanting, especially in the later rounds.
*****
#2 - Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen (UFC 117)
UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva was at the time considered the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world, and was making quick work of his opponents over the past several years, but in a fashion that caused much of the MMA fan base to lose respect for him. Chael Sonnen, who not that much earlier wasn't even really in the title picture, was the next unlikely challenger for the belt in a middleweight division that lacked a clear cut number two fighter. With his pre-fight interview antics and trash talk, Sonnen made an intriguing situation out of a matchup that many might have otherwise ignored. Come fight night, Sonnen backed up his talk by completely dominating the champion for four and a half rounds, taking him down at will and even outstriking him, which was extremely surprising considering Sonnen's wrestling background and the fact that no other fighter could stand with Silva. Never was such a one-sided fight so entertaining, and Sonnen's trash talk and energy was probably the reason it was that entertaining. (When Sonnen pulled off a kind of somersault in the first round, you know s*** just got real.) With less than three minutes to go, it looked like the end of an era, but in perhaps an homage to his Brazilian jiu-jitsu instructor Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Silva was able to pull off a submission after having sustained a thorough beating. This submission left me frozen in a state of bemusement for several minutes. While the champion was proven to be vulnerable, he showed the heart of a true champion in pulling off the win, while Sonnen also proved that he can back up his talk.
*****
#1 - Leonard Garcia vs. Chan Sung Jung (WEC 48)
This featherweight battle, which was shown for free on Spike as a prelim for WEC's pay-per-view event was fifteen full minutes of sloppy yet ridiculously awesome back-and-forth standup action. For the entire bout, both fighters were swinging at full strength with punches, kicks, knees, and even throwing in some of the crazier techniques like spinning back fists and wheel kicks. The fight was close, with both Garcia and Jung having their moments and with both fighters getting dropped repeatedly and in general getting severely beaten up. You probably couldn't go ten seconds at any point in the fight without seeing some sort of ridiculous action, whether it was both guys swinging wildly at the air or one of them blocking punches with their face. The most memorable part of the fight for me was when a wild exchange knocked Garcia's mouthpiece out of his mouth, which forced a time out. I couldn't help but go crazy when immediately after Garcia put his mouthpiece back on, the two fighters began flailing at each other again as if the timeout hadn't happened at all. In the end, Garcia won a split decision in the controversial manner that has become associated with Garcia's name, and while neither man displayed elite-level technique, they put an incredible display of recklessness and heart, and most importantly put on one of the most purely entertaining fights of all time.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
UFC 121 Preview
Well, my last set of predictions were just horrible, but whatever - what's MMA without the element of surprise? Anyway, this Saturday's UFC 121 features a heavyweight championship fight between Brock Lesnar and Cain Velasquez, and out of the four other fights on the main card, I think three of them are great matchups despite the betting odds (only fight I'm not so stoked for is Hamill-Ortiz). The event is definitely too huge to not preview, so here we go again! Hopefully I do better with my picks this time.
Note: New to this edition of my previews is fighter rankings, which are relative to their weight class (or classes, for fighters like Diego Sanchez or Jake Shields who are transitioning between weight classes). Rankings are from Bloody Elbow, which compiles subjective rankings from multiple sources.
Note: New to this edition of my previews is fighter rankings, which are relative to their weight class (or classes, for fighters like Diego Sanchez or Jake Shields who are transitioning between weight classes). Rankings are from Bloody Elbow, which compiles subjective rankings from multiple sources.
*****
Heavyweight Bout
Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
Fighter Profiles
Brendan Schaub (6-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) is the runner-up of season 10 of The Ultimate Fighter, and is being built as a rising star in the division. Schaub is without a doubt athletic, having made the practice squad for the Buffalo Bills. However, he is still relatively new to professional MMA. Schaub's striking is not technically sharp, nor is he great at takedown defense. However, he makes up for these deficiencies through his punching power and scrambling ability. Schaub can easily find himself in bad situations but has the ability to always get back to his feet and end anyone's night on any given moment.
(#13) Gabriel Gonzaga (11-5 MMA, 7-4 UFC, 3-2 last five) has found an unfortunate role as a gatekeeper for the heavyweight division, making quick work of lesser talents but not finding success against the top fighters in the division. Gonzaga is probably most dangerous as a grappler, but he rarely tries to take the game to the ground. Instead, he tends to make his bouts striking matches. Gonzaga is still formidable as a striker, but tends to get himself into troublesome situations. Gonzaga's weight of about 255 lbs does translate into a respectable amount of power, but at that weight, it is unsurprising that his cardio is not impressive. As his fights enter the later rounds, Gonzaga tires and finds himself more and more vulnerable.
Pre-fight Analysis
Skill-wise, Gonzaga trumps Schaub in almost all departments. However, his weaknesses are his mental game and physical conditioning, and these factors are what give Schaub a good chance of pulling out the win. History dictates that this fight will take place largely on the feet. Despite Gonzaga's excellent grappling skills, he will likely want to stand and bang. Additionally, Schaub will probably be able to scramble back to his feet, which may frustrate his opponent. The later this fight goes, the more the cards favor the better athlete in Schaub. Therefore, for Gonzaga to win, he will either have to score a quick knockout or submission, or pick Schaub apart enough early on to affect his performance in the later rounds. Meanwhile, Schaub's path to victory will either be the knockout punch, or a decision or late round TKO as Gonzaga wears down. Both fighters have the ability to knock out their opponent with a single strike, and even if only for this, the odds for the fight should be closer than they are. Schaub has more than just a punch's chance to win this fight, but Gonzaga's advantages early in the fight should not be dismissed. I'll pick Gonzaga to win early, but I do like Schaub's chances.
Prediction: Gonzaga by TKO (strikes, Round 1)
Approximate Betting Odds: +160 (37%) Schaub, -200 (63%) Gonzaga
Betting Recommendation: On paper, Gonzaga is the better fighter, but he does have the tendency to disappoint, and Schaub's knockout power is a big plus. Small play on Schaub.
*****
Light Heavyweight Bout
Tito Ortiz vs. Matt Hamill
Fighter Profiles
(#23) Tito Ortiz (15-7-1 MMA, 14-7-1 UFC, 1-3-1 last five) was once a dominant force in the UFC light heavyweight division, reigning as champion for more than two years. However, he is now seemingly just a shadow of his old self, falling victim to repeated injuries, and not having won a fight since 2006. "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" used his energetic ground and pound to dominate the division many years ago, but over the years his athleticism has declined, and his injuries take their toll on his conditioning as well. Additionally, while other fighters have been evolving their games, Tito Ortiz is still just Tito Ortiz.
(#18) Matt Hamill (9-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC, 4-1 last five) is most known for being the inspirational guy who overcame his deafness to become one of the UFC's top light heavyweights. Although Hamill comes from a wrestling background, his MMA game is the definition of all-around. Hamill participated in season 3 of The Ultimate Fighter and was actually coached by Tito Ortiz himself on the show. Hamill does not have an explosive game - he prefers to stalk his opponent. While Hamill eats some shots this way, he has a formidable enough striking game to compete against much of the division on the feet, and his iron chin keeps him out of trouble.
Pre-fight Analysis
We have a matchup between two wrestlers, and much of the time, the wrestling cancels out, turning the fight into a standup battle. I don't expect much of the fight to be spent on the ground, although both fighters will try their luck at a shot, especially later in the rounds to try to sway the judges. Hamill should be the better striker, and thus it will likely be Tito going in for more takedown attempts, especially because his MMA game plans continue to be one-dimensionally based on ground and pound. For the most part, these shots from both fighters should be unsuccessful, though one man might play the percentage game and find success after many tries. Because on the feet both fighters are rather tough to finish and not consistently devastating finishers, a decision is likely unless someone gets a takedown early in the round. I'd bet on the fight staying on the feet for the most part, possibly with Ortiz getting a takedown to steal one of the rounds. For the most part, though, it should be Hamill's night, especially since just as in his other recent fights, Ortiz is not likely to show up at 100%.
Prediction: Hamill by decision
Approximate Betting Odds: +145 (39%) Ortiz, -175 (61%) Hamill
Betting Recommendation: Ortiz's line is being inflated by his name, and honestly, he should not be fighting anymore. Moderate play on Hamill.
*****
Welterweight Bout
Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago
Fighter Profiles
Diego Sanchez (21-4 MMA, 10-4 UFC, 3-2 last five) is one of the winners of the original Ultimate Fighter and well-known for his cardio, iron chin, and relentless offense (as well as his "yus!" cartwheels). His technique is not fantastic and has not really evolved throughout the years to keep up with the improving competition. However, he had for a while remained successful if only for his conditioning and energy. After getting destroyed by then-lightweight champion BJ Penn, Sanchez moved back up to welterweight, where he was manhandled by John Hathaway. The UFC welterweight division is not as deep as its lightweight division, but Sanchez needs to deal with bigger opponents who punch harder and are more difficult to take down. Sanchez's inability to take down John Hathaway was discouraging, especially in light of Hathaway's recent loss to Mike Pyle, but Sanchez did not look like himself, so that fight may have been a fluke. Unfortunately for him, things don't get any easier for him, with the UFC giving him arguably a tougher opponent in Paulo Thiago.
(#9) Paulo Thiago (13-2 MMA, 3-2 UFC, 3-2 last five) remains an enigma in the UFC welterweight division after finishing top-tier fighters Josh Koscheck and Mike Swick but getting manhandled by Martin Kampmann in his most recent fight. Strangely, he is considered to be both vastly overrated and vastly underrated at the same time. Thiago's striking is ugly but effective - I guess you could say this is what one might expect from a fighter who is in the special police force. Thiago has black belts in judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but his groundwork in the MMA context has not been too impressive, and he hasn't been able to do much off his back against less seasoned grapplers. Also fitting of the police force persona is an iron man fighting style. Thiago has never been finished, he is not one to back down mentally, and he stalks his opponent, forcing them to remain active at all times.
Pre-fight Analysis
On the feet, Sanchez is not likely to find success, and he might find himself getting lit up just like in his fight against BJ Penn. Sanchez may be able to squeeze some strikes in through pure speed and energy alone, though at welterweight, Sanchez's speed is diminished. Additionally, because neither fighter is likely to knock out their opponent with a small volume of strikes, whoever is losing the standup battle should look to quickly take the fight to the ground. In the most likely scenario, Sanchez will be the one looking for the takedown, and whether he can score some and keep Thiago on the ground while avoiding submissions is completely up to speculation. Sanchez's shot won't have the same explosiveness as it did at lightweight and his wrestling in his last match was unimpressive. However, Thiago has been shown to be vulnerable to the takedown and top control even against non-elite wrestlers. Because both fighters are notorious for being incredibly difficult to finish, I'll predict a decision, and I foresee Thiago outpointing Sanchez on the feet. Sanchez may be able to steal the decision with his wrestling, but how good his wrestling will be is a gigantic X-factor.
Prediction: Thiago by decision
Approximate Betting Odds: Even Sanchez (47%), -130 (53%) Thiago
Betting Recommendation: Sanchez's last fight may have just been a fluke, and Paulo Thiago is still a mystery. No bet.
*****
Welterweight Bout
Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann
Fighter Profiles
(#10) Jake Shields (25-4-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC, 5-0 last five) finally enters the UFC after having cleaned out the welterweight and middleweight divisions of several other organizations. After climbing high in the middleweight rankings (largely due to a lack of competition in Strikeforce at welterweight), Shields moves back down to welterweight as a potential challenger to UFC champion Georges St-Pierre. As of right now his middleweight ranking is #4, and his ranking of #10 at welterweight is only so low because he has not fought in the division for a long time. Shields has never been known for his striking, but his wrestling and jiu-jitsu are extremely effective. Shields has not looked invincible during his 14-fight win streak, but he has always been able to use his grappling and strong will as neutralizers. While his shoot is not particularly explosive, he usually manages to get the fight to the ground through technique and persistence. On the ground, Shields is an elite positional grappler, having the uncanny ability to get to mount at will. His ground and pound is notorious for lacking power, being more of a pitter-patter than damaging. However, the last two decision victories against Dan Henderson and Jason Miller are more exceptions than rule, as Shields typically finishes fights through TKO or submission despite his lack of pure power.
(#7) Martin Kampmann (17-3 MMA, 8-2 UFC, 4-1 last five) was one fight away from a title shot before getting knocked out by Paul Daley. After another impressive run, Kampmann now finds himself one or two wins away from getting that title shot. As a fighter, Kampmann is a dangerous striker, having long limbs and the muay thai background to effectively use them. Also like other fighters with lanky builds, Kampmann's chokes are dangerous. Overall, though, Kampmann is more of an all-around fighter with no major weaknesses, and who has enough of a skill set to be effective in many situations and against different types of opponents, while not relying too much on one particular aspect of his game. In particular, Kampmann looked extremely impressive in his most recent fight, where he manhandled Paulo Thiago and won a decision convincingly by out-pointing Thiago on the feet, as well as mixing in some takedowns and working his ground and pound while avoiding submissions.
Pre-fight Analysis
Two big questions will determine how this fight will play out. First, will Martin Kampmann be able to avoid the takedown? While Kampmann showed off his offensive wrestling against Paulo Thiago, we didn't really get to see how his takedown defense has improved. He has certainly worked a lot on takedown defense, but much of the time, no amount of work will save you from getting taken down by a great grappler (who made quick work wrestling-wise of the Olympic-level wrestler Dan Henderson). If Jake Shields is able to end up on top of Kampmann, Shields will have a great chance of finishing the fight, and it will be up to Kampmann to somehow work his way out or - more likely - try to merely survive the round. Second, will Martin Kampmann be able to use his striking effectively enough to make up for Jake Shields's takedown ability? There is no question that Kampmann is the better striker of the two and that Shields's objective will be to go for the takedown. Fortunately for Kampmann, Shields's takedowns are more based on technique than explosiveness. This will give Kampmann a little more leeway to land strikes while maintaining distance. We've already seen Shields rocked by Dan Henderson, and there is also a very real possibility of Kampmann stunning the UFC newcomer. We've already seen Shields work his way out of a rough situation against a much bigger man with one-punch knockout power, so Kampmann will certainly have to unleash a string of solid hits to finish Shields and avoid the takedown. Alternatively, Kampmann can opt to play the distance game and try to out-point Shields to a decision victory. In the end, I think Shields will get those takedowns and will have a good chance of finishing Kampmann after getting mount. Kampmann is definitely a good underdog pick though and has a great chance of getting the win.
Prediction: Shields by submission (rear naked choke, Round 2)
Approximate Betting Odds: -260 (69%) Shields, +210 (31%) Kampmann
Betting Recommendation: Shields is the rightful favorite, but he is new to the elite ranks of the UFC, and Kampmann is by no means an easy test. Small play on Kampmann.
*****
Heavyweight Championship Bout
Brock Lesnar (Champ) vs. Cain Velasquez
Fighter Profiles
(#1) Brock Lesnar (5-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) is relatively new to MMA but already fights like a true champion, having won the UFC heavyweight championship by defeating Randy Couture, then defending it twice against Frank Mir and Shane Carwin. The former WWE star is also a former NCAA Division I wrestling champion and uses his wrestling to smother his opponents. Lesnar walks at around 285 lbs, cutting weight to reach the 265 lb weight limit. However, his size is essentially pure muscle, and for a big man, Lesnar's explosiveness and athleticism is incredible. Lesnar's striking is rudimentary but powerful, and in his last fight, he proved that he can take quite a beating. If Lesnar ends up on top of his opponent, he will use his weight to prevent them from escaping, and has the ability to do a large amount of damage without giving his opponent much space at all.
(#3) Cain Velasquez (8-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC, 5-0 last five) has made a meteoric rise to the top of the UFC heavyweight division. Also a high-level collegiate wrestler, Velasquez has relied largely on his wrestling to dominate his opponents. However, he has also shown a very great improvement in the striking department. Velasquez's chin is questionable, as he has been dazed on several occasions, and his ground and pound, much like that of a certain Jake Shields, is more about volume punching than power punching. At roughly 235 lbs, Velasquez gives up a lot of size to many of the other fighters in the weight class, but he makes up for this disadvantage with explosiveness and an endless gas tank. While many other heavyweights are very dangerous in the first round and fade in the later stages, Velasquez is able to carry out an all out attack for the entirety of at least a three-round fight.
Pre-fight Analysis
There are so many questions leading into this fight. Can Lesnar take down Velasquez? Can Velasquez take down Lesnar? Does Lesnar have the cardio to go a full five rounds? Can Cain survive Lesnar's ground and pound should he end up on bottom? The fight starts on the feet so let's start there. Lesnar's striking is more powerful but Cain's should be quicker and more technical. If Lesnar connects with a sold punch, it will likely be goodnight for Velasquez. Likewise, Lesnar was sent curling up after a few shots from Shane Carwin. Fortunately for the champ, Cain Velasquez does not pack the same power than Carwin does. However, Lesnar may see himself eating more strikes than he ever has before. If the fight hits the ground, then whoever is on top has the clear advantage, and the man on bottom will try his best to get the fight back on the feet. Lesnar can easily get a stoppage win from a knockout punch, or by getting into Cain's half-guard, where the smaller Velasquez will have little chance of escaping. For Velasquez, his path to victory will more likely be wearing the champ down to get a decision or a late-round TKO. If Cain gets Brock to the ground - whether it be through striking or wrestling - he will have to be much smarter about his ground and pound than Shane Carwin was. I will have to go with the heart pick here (can anyone say Frankie Edgar vs. BJ Penn?) and choose Cain Velasquez to avoid Lesnar's takedowns and secure the victory by wearing down the champion through striking before getting a late-round takedown or knockdown and sealing the win with ground and pound.
Prediction: Velasquez by TKO (strikes, Round 4)
Approximate Betting Odds: -155 (58%) Lesnar, +125 (42%) Velasquez
Betting Recommendation: Same betting strategy as with the rest of Lesnar's fights. No play.
*****
My Official Fantasy Bets (Main Card)
100 points on Brendan Schaub at +160 to win 160 points
280 points on Matt Hamill at -175 to win 160 points
50 points on Martin Kampmann at +210 to win 105 points
Max win: 425 points
Max loss: 430 points
My Official Fantasy Bets (Main Card)
100 points on Brendan Schaub at +160 to win 160 points
280 points on Matt Hamill at -175 to win 160 points
50 points on Martin Kampmann at +210 to win 105 points
Max win: 425 points
Max loss: 430 points
Friday, September 10, 2010
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs. Palhares Predictions
So I went a measly 3-2 in my predictions for UFC 118 (well, 5-2 if you include both my correct picks for the Spike TV card, which weren't included in my write-up), though I ended up well in the money in my fantasy betting scheme. The next big MMA event is UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs. Palhares, which will be shown free on Spike TV on Wednesday, 9/15 at 7 PM (central time). This event will lead immediately into the premiere of The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs. Team Koscheck, which marks the twelfth season of the show and will feature lightweights.
As usual, the Fight Night features many lightweights who are just a notch below the UFC's upper echelon. The division is extremely deep, and many of these fighters would be pushed down the card on a PPV event. The match-ups are great, though, and all of the televised fights should be fun and exciting in some way.
Ross Pearson (11-3 MMA, 3-0 UFC, 4-1 last five) is best known as the winner of season 9 of The Ultimate Fighter, and over the last year he has been establishing himself as a potential top-tier lightweight. Pearson has a stalking style that gives his opponent little space to maneuver. He has great technical boxing, muay thai, and striking defense, and his knees from the thai plum are lethal. However, the rest of his clinch game is unspectacular despite his background in judo, and his base is largely untested, as he has not yet faced any of the lightweight division's plethora of wrestlers.
Cole Miller (16-4 MMA, 5-2 UFC, 3-2 last five) is riding a five-fight streak where his three wins have all been by submission and his two losses have both been by knockout. And that's pretty much the deal with Cole Miller, whose striking is unimpressive, but is complemented by an ability to pull off a submission out of nowhere. Miller does not yet have a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but his grappling game is very effective in an MMA context, and his long, skinny limbs are dangerous when it comes into sinking in chokes. Unfortunately, his wins as of late have come against fellow grapplers, while his track record against strikers is not so great.
Pearson's style is Miller's kryptonite, and if Pearson plays it smart, he should be able to get the win by knockout with aggressive play or riding out a dominating decision. Even in the clinch, Pearson's game works towards thai plum or judo takedowns as opposed to the standard wrestling double-leg takedown. This style of clinch game should keep Pearson out of danger when it comes to falling into submissions while attempting a takedown. Miller's game plan will have to involve getting the fight to the ground somehow, but he is not known for his takedowns, and Pearson's grappling experience should be enough to stifle that strategy.
As usual, the Fight Night features many lightweights who are just a notch below the UFC's upper echelon. The division is extremely deep, and many of these fighters would be pushed down the card on a PPV event. The match-ups are great, though, and all of the televised fights should be fun and exciting in some way.
*****
Lightweight Bout
Ross Pearson vs. Cole Miller
Fighter Profiles
Ross Pearson (11-3 MMA, 3-0 UFC, 4-1 last five) is best known as the winner of season 9 of The Ultimate Fighter, and over the last year he has been establishing himself as a potential top-tier lightweight. Pearson has a stalking style that gives his opponent little space to maneuver. He has great technical boxing, muay thai, and striking defense, and his knees from the thai plum are lethal. However, the rest of his clinch game is unspectacular despite his background in judo, and his base is largely untested, as he has not yet faced any of the lightweight division's plethora of wrestlers.
Cole Miller (16-4 MMA, 5-2 UFC, 3-2 last five) is riding a five-fight streak where his three wins have all been by submission and his two losses have both been by knockout. And that's pretty much the deal with Cole Miller, whose striking is unimpressive, but is complemented by an ability to pull off a submission out of nowhere. Miller does not yet have a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but his grappling game is very effective in an MMA context, and his long, skinny limbs are dangerous when it comes into sinking in chokes. Unfortunately, his wins as of late have come against fellow grapplers, while his track record against strikers is not so great.
Pre-fight Analysis
Pearson's style is Miller's kryptonite, and if Pearson plays it smart, he should be able to get the win by knockout with aggressive play or riding out a dominating decision. Even in the clinch, Pearson's game works towards thai plum or judo takedowns as opposed to the standard wrestling double-leg takedown. This style of clinch game should keep Pearson out of danger when it comes to falling into submissions while attempting a takedown. Miller's game plan will have to involve getting the fight to the ground somehow, but he is not known for his takedowns, and Pearson's grappling experience should be enough to stifle that strategy.
Prediction: Pearson by TKO (strikes, Round 2)
Approximate Betting Odds: -280 (70%) Pearson, +210 (30%) Miller
Betting Recommendation: I don't think Miller's chances of pulling off a submission are good enough to give him a +210 line or anything close. Moderate play on Pearson.
*****
Lightweight Bout
Jim Miller vs. Gleison Tibau
Fighter Profiles
Jim Miller (17-2 MMA, 6-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) has a very impressive résumé, with his only losses coming from lightweight champ Frankie Edgar and #1 contender Gray Maynard. His credentials would have you think that he's just another one of those NCAA Division I wrestlers who picked up Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to get into MMA, but he's actually much more of an all-around fighter and his wrestling is actually perhaps even underutilized. Miller's striking won't set off fireworks, but his deliberate style is very effective and packs some power. If the fight does hit the ground, Miller will take control and look for submissions as opposed to riding it out like many wrestlers do.
Gleison Tibau (21-6 MMA, 7-4 UFC, 4-1 last five) is somewhat of a gatekeeper in the lightweight division, destroying lesser opponents like Caol Uno and Josh Neer while coming up short against the division's top tier fighters. He is notorious for the tremendous weights at which he arrives on fight night, and yet his physical conditioning never seems to be affected by these cuts. His size has pretty much been his biggest advantage, though this is not to take away from his great all-around game, which features heavy punches and huge takedowns.
Pre-fight Analysis
Miller and Tibau are fighters with styles that are largely similar in that they are all-around fighters as opposed to specialists in one area. However, Miller is a more technical fighter while Tibau is all about power. Miller will try to fight smart, and Tibau will try to make the fight anything but a smart one. On the feet, Miller probably has the advantage overall, but is always in danger of getting hit by a huge punch from Tibau. On the ground, whoever is on top will have the advantage, and in this case I believe Tibau is more likely to take down Miller than vice versa. Miller is the odds-on favorite likely due to his more sexy record, but at this point to me it's a coin toss (though if they were to fight 100 times I believe one of them would probably win at least 65 of those). It has the potential to be a very exciting fight, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the opposite was the case. The one thing that makes me lean toward Tibau is Miller's previous victory against Mark Bocek (a fight many feel that Miller lost), where Miller was taken down several times and his weaknesses were exposed. I'll look for Tibau to go for the takedowns and maintain pressure on his opponent to snag the decision.
Prediction: Tibau by decision
Approximate Betting Odds: -170 Miller (60%), +140 (40%) Tibau
Betting Recommendation: This is an extremely hard fight to predict, but I think at the very least the odds favor Miller much more than they should. Small play on Tibau.
*****
Lightweight Bout
Efrain Escudero vs. Charles Oliveira
Fighter Profiles
Efrain Escudero (13-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) is the lightweight winner of Season 8 of The Ultimate Fighter and had an undefeated MMA record until a loss in early 2010 to rising star Evan Dunham. Escudero is an all-around fighter who can play to his opponents' weaknesses, though in his loss against Dunham, he perhaps had too much confidence in his jiu-jitsu, which should have been a no-no against a grappling specialist. Escudero has a good combination of speed and power on the feet, as well as a background in wrestling.
Charles Oliveira (13-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC, 5-0 last five) made a meteoric rise to UFC notoriety after pulling off a beautiful armbar in his previous fight against Darren Elkins immediately after being taken down. With that being the only fight in a major MMA organization on Oliveira's résumé, it's tough to judge how strong the remainder of his MMA skill set is. His speed and ground skills are already evident, but we await to see how good his striking and takedown abilities are at the UFC level.
Pre-fight Analysis
We all saw what happened when someone had the game plan of taking Oliveira to the ground. Surely Escudero will be interested in keeping the fight on the feet, especially since Oliveira's previous win and Escudero's only loss have both been by armbar. The quality of Oliveira's striking is yet to be seen, and if Oliveira ends up out-striking Escudero, he will likely use the strikes to set up a takedown and submission. However, Escudero is no easy opponent on the feet, and I am not so inclined to think that the jiu-jitsu specialist from the minor leagues will be winning the striking battle. Instead, I expect Oliveira to go for takedowns. Again, we don't know how good the Brazilian is at getting the fight to the ground, and Escudero has certainly worked on his defensive wrestling in preparation for this match. Escudero needs to fight carefully to avoid the risk of a takedown, so I don't think he will be landing strikes in volume. However, his power should be enough to keep Oliveira off kilter for the whole fight and possibly even score a knockout.
Prediction: Escudero by decision
Approximate Betting Odds: -190 (62.5%) Escudero, +155 (37.5%) Oliveira
Betting Recommendation: This line is certainly affected by overreaction to recent performances by both fighters and sway the line towards Oliveira more than it probably should. Oliveira's chances are not insignificant, though, and he may actually be as good as we think. Small play on Escudero.
*****
Middleweight Bout
Nate Marquardt vs. Rousimar Palhares
Fighter Profiles
Nate Marquardt (29-9-2 MMA, 8-3 UFC, 3-2 last five) is only 31 years old but is one of the most experienced fighters in MMA after being King of Pancrase in the days of the UFC's infancy. Throughout his career he has been among the top middleweights, and he was one fight away from a second shot at middleweight champion Anderson Silva before losing a decision to Chael Sonnen. Marquardt's main background is in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but his striking is no joke, and he recently had a run of three straight knockout wins in the UFC, most famously making quick work of Demian Maia in just 21 seconds.
Rousimar Palhares (11-2 MMA, 4-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) is perhaps one of the most feared fighters in the middleweight division, and this is not so much because of his overall skill as much as his proficiency in the most dangerous legal move in jiu-jitsu - the heel hook. An incredible six out of Palhares's eleven wins have come via heel hook. The rest of his jiu-jitsu game is strong as well, and as opposed to positional grappling, Palhares will try to find the submission from any position. Palhares is built like a tank, but this is also partly because he is rather short for the middleweight division. He gives up reach against most of the division, and thus has an intrinsic disadvantage in the striking department.
Pre-fight Analysis
Obviously, Palhares is very dangerous if he gets a hold of a leg (or any limb for that matter). However, Marquardt should have the grappling skills to avoid being caught in a submission. If it's Marquardt dictating the fight - and I expect that to be the case - the fight should stay on the feet. Even though Marquardt is not exactly the biggest middleweight, he will still have roughly a three-inch reach advantage over Palhares, and should use this effectively on the feet. Marquardt will likely play it safe, staying out of grappling range. I foresee him using his more effective striking and his reach advantage to pick Palhares apart on the feet. Naturally, Palhares will try to close the distance to initiate a grappling game, but Marquardt's grappling should be good enough to defend takedown and submission attempts, and to push Palhares back into striking range.
Prediction: Marquardt by decision
Approximate Betting Odds: -240 (67%) Marquardt, +190 (33%) Palhares
Betting Recommendation: I'd like to say that the line is good for a small play on Marquardt, but I don't feel too good about it, so as a conservative (fantasy) bettor, I'm staying away.
*****
My Official Fantasy Bets (Main Card)
199 points on Ross Pearson at -280 to win 71 points
125 points on Gleison Tibau at +140 to win 175 points
76 points on Efrain Escudero at -190 to win 40 points
Max win: 286 points
Max loss: 400 points
*****
My Official Fantasy Bets (Main Card)
199 points on Ross Pearson at -280 to win 71 points
125 points on Gleison Tibau at +140 to win 175 points
76 points on Efrain Escudero at -190 to win 40 points
Max win: 286 points
Max loss: 400 points
Friday, August 27, 2010
UFC 118 Predictions
UFC is heading to Boston for the first time this Saturday, and it's got a stacked card. That, along with the great run UFC's had over the summer (115, 116, and 117 were phenomenal events) means I'm back in the MMA writing deal. Here's some pre-fight commentary and predictions for the five fights on the main card (note that two preliminary fights will be shown for free on Spike TV immediately before the pay-per-view).
In the order the bouts will be contested:
In the order the bouts will be contested:
*****
Welterweight Bout
Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis
Fighter Profiles
Nate Diaz (12-5 MMA, 7-3 UFC, 2-3 last five) is entering his second fight after his move up from lightweight, where he was having a not-so-great run in a deep division. His last bout was technically at middleweight when his opponent failed to make welterweight, but Diaz used crisp striking to get the TKO win. Diaz has a reach of 76", which was huge for the lightweight division and at welterweight is still respectable. Like his brother Nick, Nate prefers the strategy of light punches in volume, rather than winding up for the heavy hits. However, at welterweight, his striking does have a little more oomph to it, from his not having to cut so much weight. Diaz's main strength remains his jiu-jitsu, and his lankiness is ideal the submission game.
Marcus Davis (17-6 MMA, 9-4 UFC, 3-2 last five) comes from a boxing background, having amassed a 17-1-2 professional boxing record before making the permanent transition to MMA. Davis is by all means a scrapper, and would easily take a hit in order to land one of his own. As a result of this, his style is often sloppy. In addition, when you consider his boxing career and his MMA career, Davis has taken a lot of hits, and at the age of 37 those hits have likely taken a big toll on his ability to absorb damage. Still, Davis's knockout power must still be respected, and that alone keeps him in contention for any fight.
Pre-fight Analysis
Diaz has a six-inch reach advantage on Davis and always uses his reach advantage well, even when taking into account Davis's background in boxing. On the other hand, Davis's power means that he can score the knockout even if he is being outclassed. If Diaz takes the smartest route, he will try to take the fight to the ground, either through a takedown or more easily by pulling guard. This area is where Diaz has the clear advantage. However, both Diaz brothers have had a history of wanting to stand and bang despite their proficiency in Gracie jiu-jitsu. Davis will certainly want to keep the fight on the feet, and I have the feeling Diaz will comply. I think Diaz will still be better on the feet though, working his way to a decision victory, although we may see Davis trying a desperation takedown and getting caught in a choke.
Prediction: Nate Diaz by decision
Betting Recommendation: Diaz should win this fight 4 times out of 5. This warrants a moderate play on Diaz at -250 or better.
*****
Lightweight Bout
Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard
Fighter Profiles
Kenny Florian (14-4 MMA, 11-3 UFC, 4-1 last five) has improved constantly and greatly throughout his stint in the UFC and is now one of the most complete fighters in the sport. Florian has a background in jiu-jitsu and muay thai and has successfully incorporated these styles into a complete MMA game. With the exception of his fight against BJ Penn, Florian comes into his fights with great game plans, which typically use striking to set up a late takedown, leading into a submission (almost always by rear naked choke). In addition, Florian's elbow strikes are notorious for causing cuts, which can mess up any opponent's game plan.
Gray Maynard (9-0 (1 NC) MMA, 7-0 (1 NC) UFC, 5-0 last five) is a wrestler-boxer with a very deliberate style that has led to six straight decision victories in the UFC. However, this conservative approach has also resulted in a record whose only blemish is a no contest from an odd incident in his first bout in the UFC. Maynard knocked himself out while taking down his opponent, but this takedown also injured his opponent, forcing him to submit at the same time - resulting in a no contest.
Pre-fight Analysis
Florian was able to beat up wrestler Clay Guida enough to take the fight to the ground, but the more credentialed Maynard will be more difficult to bring down - especially because he won't get hit as much as Guida usually does. Maynard will likely spend the first round on his feet trying to beat Florian in a standup war. I expect Florian to get the better of Maynard on the feet, and I expect the fight to hit the ground after the first round - either by Maynard's will as he tries to win the remaining two rounds, or by Florian's as his striking makes Maynard more susceptible to the takedown. Florian is very dangerous on the ground, even from the bottom, where he uses elbow strikes to inflict a lot of damage. If Florian finds himself on top (through a takedown or a sweep), it's game over. Maynard actually has a decent chance of pulling out the decision victory, as long as he slows the pace down enough to look to outpoint Florian on the feet. But I think Florian will win the fight, though I can't decide whether he'll get his trademark rear naked choke within the 15 minute time period or will settle for the decision. I'll flip a coin to decide.
Prediction: Kenny Florian by submission (rear naked choke, Round 3)
Betting Recommendation: -175/+150 looks like an accurate line. No bet.
*****
Middleweight Bout
Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda
Fighter Profiles
Demian Maia (12-2 MMA, 6-2 UFC, 3-2 last five) is a jiu-jitsu world champion, and is not afraid to pull guard or even half-guard on his opponents. He is a huge step above even other Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts in the division, and his groundwork is elegant and a pleasure to watch. However, his striking game is very limited both in terms of technique and power, and in an MMA context he is not the best at getting the fight to the ground. Because of his lack of takedown power, Maia often finds himself doing the butt scoot to try to grab a hold of a leg and drag his opponent down - not the safest technique. However, once the fight is on the ground, it's just a matter of time before Maia pulls off the submission.
Mario Miranda (12-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) has a background in Brazilian jiu-jitsu but has actually won more fights by knockout than by submission. To be honest, I am not too familiar with Miranda, who is making his main card debut as a last-minute replacement for Alan Belcher. Thus, my analysis will be slightly based on assumptions regarding Miranda's skills.
Pre-fight Analysis
Maia's three most recent fights don't spell well for him. He was unable to take down Anderson Silva (who was subsequently taken down at will by Chael Sonnen), and two fights before that he was knocked out quickly by Nate Marquardt, who is more renowned as a grappler than as a striker. In between those fights was an unimpressive decision victory over Dan Miller that stayed on the feet. Miranda should have the advantage in the striking department, and Maia will need to take the fight to the ground. The outcome of the fight will depend on whether or not this happens. Miranda is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and should be able to avoid getting trapped in guard. I see Maia most likely meeting a similar fate as in his fight with Marquardt, but you can never know what tricks Maia has up his sleeve (example: Maia vs. Chael Sonnen).
Prediction: Mario Miranda by TKO (punches, Round 2)
Betting Recommendation: -200/+160 seems slightly in favor of a play on Miranda, but there are too many factors in play and the risk is high. I suggest no bet on this one, though a small play on Miranda is justified if you are a high-risk bettor.
*****
Heavyweight Bout
Randy Couture vs. James Toney
Fighter Profiles
Randy Couture (18-10 MMA, 15-7 UFC, 3-2 last five) has a record that makes him look worse than he actually is, and this is because until recently, almost all of his fights were championship fights against all the best fighters the UFC had to offer in two weight classes. Even at the age of 47, Couture is in shape and relies on a Greco-Roman wrestling base that does not require a lot of speed to execute successfully. Couture is also a very smart fighter and knows what he should and shouldn't be doing at his age and against any opponent.
James Toney (0-0 MMA) is a professional boxer who has pestered UFC president Dana White enough to convince him to set up this match. Toney is looking to make some bucks after his disappearance from relevance in the world of boxing. The former boxing great should still have the best boxing and the best chin in MMA. However, boxers in MMA are notorious for having poor footwork when it comes to defending kicks and takedowns. Toney is brand new to MMA and may have learned the basics of all the relevant concepts - however, he will still absolutely be relying on his punching power to score any win in this sport.
Pre-fight Analysis
James Toney is brand new to MMA and there is no way he will be able to compete with a high-level wrestler once the distance is closed. Toney's only hope for winning is by the so-called "puncher's chance." He might catch Randy as he is trying to close distance and drop him with a single punch, or he might have even developed enough footwork to keep the fight at a distance for a little bit. Couture's strategy is no secret - take Toney down, then either pound him out or submit him. Couture is smart enough to be able to successfully do this any time he wants. However, Toney's boxing technique, pure power, and Randy's increasingly fragile chin could spell disaster for the UFC hall of famer. Slim chance though.
Prediction: Randy Couture by submission (rear naked choke, Round 1)
Betting Recommendation: James Toney is a huge wild card coming into the fight. He may surprise, and the pain of a Randy Couture loss may be lessened by a bit of cash inflow. Small bet on Toney at +500 or better; don't wager any more than what you're willing to lose.
*****
Lightweight Championship Bout
Frankie Edgar (Champ) vs. BJ Penn
Fighter Profiles
Frankie Edgar (12-1 MMA, 7-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) is a wrestler with an endless gas tank and a dynamic, high-energy fighting style. He is small for a lightweight, typically not even having to cut weight to make 155 lbs. However, what he lacks in size and strength, he makes up for in speed and stamina. Because of this style, Edgar's fights tend to go to decision but are exciting to watch (much like fights in the WEC 145 and 135 lb. divisions). Edgar used tricky movement and well-timed striking to earn a close decision victory over Penn at UFC 112. However, many believed that Penn should have won, and the judges' puzzling scorecards (50-45, 49-46, 48-47, all for Edgar; I scored it 48-47 Edgar) only add to the controversy.
BJ Penn (15-6-1 MMA, 11-5-1 UFC, 3-2 last five) has arguably the best boxing in the lightweight division from a combined power/technique perspective. He combines these skills with the best takedown defense in the sport - which is due to his balance and flexibility - and he even has the ability to inflict heavy damage while defending a takedown. Even if the fight hit's the ground, Penn is a world champion jiu-jitsu artist, though for some reason he always prefers to keep the fight standing. Penn's major downfall has historically been his conditioning. He has had several poor performances due to cardio issues, and he did not look so great physically in his last fight with Edgar.
Pre-fight Analysis
The previous fight between the two could have gone either way, although both times I viewed the fight, I scored it 48-47 for Edgar. BJ seemed rather listless in that fight, perhaps due to the Abu Dhabi heat in the outdoor arena. However, Frankie Edgar decisively controlled the pace of the fight, and I expect the same to be the case in the rematch. Edgar's aggressiveness caused him to fall victim to solid counterpunches from BJ, but these punches were mostly jabs that didn't cause much damage. Assuming BJ's conditioning is better leading into this fight, I expect his punches to hurt more. I think we'll see much of the same, with Edgar mixing up striking from all different angles with takedown attempts to try to keep BJ guessing. Meanwhile, BJ will try to counterpunch his way to victory, but I don't see BJ being the aggressor because of Edgar's endless gas tank. It will come down to which person is landing the better strikes that night, and while my brain says it will be BJ, I'll have to go with the heart pick and choose Frankie Edgar to retain his title through a five-round decision.
Prediction: Frankie Edgar by decision
Betting Recommendation: The odds assume that the previous fight was a fluke. Regardless, the underdog play on Edgar should still be a sound move because of the effect of BJ's popularity on his betting line. Small play on Edgar at +250 or better.
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