Sunday, December 6, 2009

TUF 10 Finale Commentary + UFC 107 Predictions


Saturday night's finale of The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights has already been much discussed due to a controversial ending to the Hamill - Jones fight and the surprisingly boring match between Kimbo Slice and Houston Alexander. Here is a recap and some of my thoughts on the televised fights:

*****

Mark Bocek vs. Joe Brammer

I was rooting for Bocek in this prelim that they aired between main event fights based solely off the fact that Brammer had his last name tattooed obnoxiously on his abdomen. Anyway, there's not much to mention other than some solid jiu-jitsu from Bocek in going straight from a slam to hooking in from the back. Bocek wins the Submission of the Night award as he eventually secures the rear naked choke while hooked on to a standing Brammer.

Bocek defeats Brammer by submission (rear naked choke, Round 1, 3:36)

*****

Darrill Schoonover vs. James McSweeney

This was another prelim that was eventually aired between two TUF contestants in Schoonover - whom you have to feel bad for as he constantly gets picked on by Rampage and is set to return to the Army after the event - and McSweeney - who was pretty much made out to be a jerk in the show. I didn't catch the whole fight but from what I saw, McSweeney was constantly beating up a very large-looking Schoonover. This surprised me, as McSweeney hardly had any cardio in his first fight on TUF, yet was able to deliver 2 1/2 solid rounds until eventually putting the fight away. I was also impressed with McSweeney's skill set beyond kickboxing - which we didn't really see on the show - as he got in some good knees and even swept Schoonover from side control. I can actually see a bit of a future in McSweeney, especially if the UFC builds him up as a heel.

McSweeney defeats Schoonover by TKO (strikes, Round 3, 3:20)

*****

Marcus "Big Baby" Jones vs. Matt Mitrione

I was pretty excited for this fight, most particularly to see fan-favorite Marcus Jones - who shed his old moniker "The Darkness" in favor of "Big Baby," which was pretty much forced upon him by his fellow TUF contestants. Jones, a jiu-jitsu specialist, was a heavy favorite going into the fight against the stamina-less but lanky Mitrione. Jones's weak standup game and chin had already been exploited by Brendan Schaub during the TUF semifinals, and it happened again here. At first, "Big Baby" was able to get a bunch easy takedowns on Mitrione, but Mitrione is impressive in being able to get back onto the feet. After a short while, it's clear that Jones is already gassing, as he is lowering his hands and raising his chin. While the first round probably goes to Jones, the advantage goes to the less tired Mitrione going into the second round, and indeed he knocks "Big Baby" out with a couple of counter punches just ten seconds in.

In all the post-fight interviews, Mitrione actually seems like a cool guy who was victimized by TUF's need to create good drama. They built him up as kind of a loser for the whole show, even giving him the nickname "Meathead," partially to hype up a possible but eventually non-existent return of Kimbo Slice. Mitrione seemed a lot more down to earth and actually really likable, giving a lot of respect to Marcus Jones and acknowledging that the show kind of gave him a bad rep that he doesn't deserve. I don't really see too much a future for either of these two fighters in the UFC, though I can definitely see them bringing both of them back - Marcus Jones back because he's a fan favorite, and Mitrione to see how he'll develop.

Mitrione defeats Jones by KO (punch, Round 2, 0:10)

*****

Frankie Edgar vs. Matt Veach

The fact that this won the Fight of the Night award is a testament to the overall quality of Saturday's fights - lots of good fights like this one, but no great ones. This wins the award because of the "comeback" victory by heavy favorite Frankie Edgar. Veach comes out strong and gets some huge takedowns, including a running slam reminiscent of Matt Hughes. By the middle of the round though, it's clear that he's starting to run out of fuel, while Edgar is still at 100%, so while Veach surprisingly wins the first round, it's clear that the longer this fight goes, the more the advantage goes to Edgar. As expected, Veach is not able to do much in the second round, and smaller Edgar is eventually able to stun him with a big punch and finish him with a perfectly-executed rear mount and choke.

Edgar defeats Veach by submission (rear naked choke, Round 2, 2:22)

*****

Kimbo Slice vs. Houston Alexander

Wow, what a disappointing fight. Everyone basically expected a first round knockout, as both of these guys are known to be big hitters with no other real weapons. Houston Alexander is especially known for quick highlight-reel finishes, whether he is doing the finishing or the one being finished. Instead, both fighters really don't want to engage, and when they do, most of the time it's just a single punch or kick. The judges scores are particularly interesting and give some insight to the way these things are scored. I'm surprised the scoring hasn't been a huge topic of discussion, as I thought that Houston had won the fight, 29-28.

The first round was basically Houston Alexander circling around Kimbo a la Kalib Starnes, while Kimbo slowly stalked Houston and was equally hesitant to act. Houston was able to get in several leg kicks while Kimbo lands nearly nothing. Still, at least one judge gave the round to Kimbo, and I bet it's because of the very vague "octagon control" criterion, which gives Kimbo credit for staying in the center of the octagon instead of nervously running in circles. The second round had a little more action, and after Kimbo Slice makes a big throw, we are actually able to see the ground game - or lack thereof - of these two "warriors." By the end of the round, which easily goes to Kimbo, both fighters are pretty much out of energy.

Now the third round was close, and I could have seen it going either way. I gave it to Houston for kicking Kimbo's arthritic leg until it gave out. The only big thing Kimbo was able to do in the round was toss Alexander down and get into half-guard, but he wasn't really able to do anything, and I think the fact that it was probably this that gave Kimbo the round just shows how much American judges overemphasize takedowns in their scoring. I believe that scoring should be more based off of damage, with takedowns just being a useful tool in getting to an advantageous position to deal damage.

Eventually, Kimbo wins this disappointing "fight," but the fact that he won does nothing to legitimize him as a mixed martial artist. I'm not sure if there's anyone else left in the UFC that could make for a reasonable fight with Kimbo. You can be certain though that we'll be seeing him back on a main card sometime in the future just because he's Kimbo Slice.

Slice defeats Alexander by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

*****

Matt "The Hammer" Hamill vs. Jon "Bones" Jones

This fight was bound to be a heartbreaker as the UFC pitted two very likable guys in Matt Hamill and Jon Jones in the event's headliner. Jones is one of the top light heavyweight prospects in the UFC, and was unsurprisingly effective in giving the solid Matt Hamill a smackdown far worse than he's ever gotten before after using one of his trademark takedowns and getting into full mount. Jones eventually lost after two illegal elbows finished a beat-up Hamill and opened up a cut on his nose, leaving pools of blood in his eye sockets to make things even worse. Firstly, as Joe Rogan points out, the fact that the "12-to-6" elbow is illegal is already ridiculous in the first place. Secondly, while referee Steve Mazzagatti makes the right call in giving Jones a DQ loss due to the illegal blows, it was clear that the fight should have already been stopped far before that point, as Jones landed over 75 hits from mount on the head of Hamill, who could hardly do anything to defend himself. Interestingly, Dana White himself tweeted during a previous fight in the card that Mazzagatti is a horrible ref and he doesn't understand why the Nevada State Athletic Commission still uses him for these fights.

Anyway, Jones "wins" the fight but instead has a DQ loss on his record, which he handles very positively. He says he's glad he doesn't have to worry about maintaining a perfect record anymore. Perhaps from here, he will follow in the footsteps of Fedor Emelianenko and just start beasting everyone now that he has his one "loss." As for Hamill, you have to feel bad for him too, as it's tough to see such a likable guy get beaten up so badly. And there have been talks about a rematch, which should definitely not happen unless you really want Matt Hamill to have to get major reconstructive facial surgery.

Hamill defeats Jones by disqualification (illegal elbows, Round 1, 4:14)

*****

Roy "Big Country" Nelson vs. Brendan Schaub
for The Ultimate Fighter title

I bet the whole world was rooting for the cool guy Brendan Schaub to pull the upset victory over the cocky Roy Nelson in the finals of TUF. I myself had a feeling that Schaub would be much improved between the end of the filming of the show in July and now. Nelson, on the other hand, is a veteran, and one can kind of assume that his game hasn't changed much. Indeed, Nelson's general strategy throughout TUF was simple enough: get the takedown and work towards side control, then use his enormous belly to pin them down into a crucifix and rain down weak but impossible-to-defend punches to the opponent's head until the referee stops the fight. Accordingly, I expected Schaub to win the fight as long as he could get out from underneath that big belly.

The beginning of the fight brought me a sigh of relief, as Schaub was indeed able to escape the belly of doom - which did not surprise me as Schaub trained for a long time specifically for this fight. However, the surprise ending came when Roy Nelson winded up and knocked out Schaub with a huge right to become the winner of TUF 10.

Actually, Roy Nelson did the same exact thing in that punch that Kimbo Slice did when he got knocked out by Seth Petruzelli by really telegraphing it with the huge windup. In Kimbo's case, Petruzelli read the technique and was able to land a big counterpunch, knocking Kimbo out cold. In this fight, Schaub looked like he had things under control when he timed a jab nicely to keep Nelson out of range. However, this jab missed, leaving the left side of Schaub's head wide open to eat Nelson's right fist. What Schaub should have done is countered with the right as Petruzelli did, which I think would have been the better option as landing that may have actually finished the fight in his favor, and even in the case of a miss, his left hand is still available to defend against Nelson's right.

In the post-fight interviews, Roy Nelson just confirms that he is the same guy that the footage of him in TUF made him out to be - a kind of cocky guy who tries to be funny but fails. I think he can actually make an impact in the heavyweight division, but I am confused as to why he was on TUF in the first place, as he should have been able to enter the UFC directly. I think this fight ended in the best possible way a Roy Nelson victory could end, and really helps his case when it comes to trying to become an exciting fighter. He should be marketable in the UFC for a while as a skilled fighter with a kind of villain role. Brendan Schaub, meanwhile, got schooled in this fight but is quickly developing and has the potential to work his way up in the heavyweight division.

Nelson defeats Schaub by KO (punch, Round 1, 3:25)

*****

Next Saturday, December 12 is UFC 107, which has one of the best cards in a while.

The main event is a lightweight title fight between champion B.J. Penn and challenger Diego Sanchez. I think B.J. should get the win pretty easily here, as he trumps Sanchez in just about every skill and seems to have improved his cardio. Sanchez, meanwhile, is just an all-around fighter who doesn't really have any weapons to defeat Penn, and the only realistic way I see that he can win this is just to survive until Penn wears down.

Prediction: B.J. Penn defeats Diego Sanchez by submission (rear naked choke, Round 3)

Also on the card are jiu-jitsu specialist Frank Mir against the athletic Cheick Kongo, who are both coming off of losses against top-level heavyweights. Cheick Kongo has always had a weak ground game and never has really improved it, while Frank Mir's striking has been improving. If Mir gets the fight to the ground, it's all over. On the feet Kongo has a slight advantage, but look for Mir to score the takedown or trap Kongo into his guard and get a victory by submission or TKO from mount.

Prediction: Frank Mir defeats Cheick Kongo by submission (armbar, Round 2)

Next up is the elite welterweight wrestler Jon Fitch, who instead of getting a rematch with Thiago Alves, gets wrestler Mike Pierce. Jon Fitch, although he is a top-level fighter, always delivers boring fights, and I feel that the only reason he is on the main card here is because Thiago Alves - a fellow elite welterweight and much more exciting fighter - was going to be his original opponent. Instead, the UFC is not doing much to try to make the fight exciting by putting him up against another wrestler. Expect a 30-27, 30-27, 30-27 decision for Fitch and a very boring fight.

Prediction: Jon Fitch defeats Mike Pierce by unanimous decision

You can pencil in Fight of the Night when my two favorite lightweights Kenny Florian and Clay Guida (who are the fighters to most recently lose to the headliners Penn and Sanchez) go head to head. Florian is always improving and I believe had an honest shot at B.J. Penn but used a really horrible strategy. Instead, he will probably not get another chance at the title for a long time because the lightweight division is so deep. Clay Guida fights with a lot of heart and has a chin made of steel, and his fights are always exciting. I'm hoping to see this fight go the distance, as Clay has a tendency to get beaten up at first and then make incredible comebacks - but I can also see KenFlo cutting Clay up bad enough to force a stoppage or getting a tapout from rear naked choke.

Prediction: Kenny Florian defeats Clay Guida by unanimous decision

The final fight on the main card features the veteran power-hitter Paul Buentello against the extremely tall Stefan Struve, who is only 21 years old but has somehow already amassed an 18-3 record. This fight for me is hard to call, but I give Buentello the edge standing up and Struve and his deadly triangle chokes (7 of his 18 victories have come via triangle choke!) the advantage on the ground. I'm predicting that the fight will go to the ground, but Buentello will play it smart and be able to avoid the triangle choke and pound out Struve to get the early win - just like Denis Stojnic was almost able to do to Struve before Struve made an amazing comeback.

Prediction: Paul Buentello defeats Stefan Struve by TKO (strikes, Round 1)

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