UFC 121 Preview

Well, my last set of predictions were just horrible, but whatever - what's MMA without the element of surprise?  Anyway, this Saturday's UFC 121 features a heavyweight championship fight between Brock Lesnar and Cain Velasquez, and out of the four other fights on the main card, I think three of them are great matchups despite the betting odds (only fight I'm not so stoked for is Hamill-Ortiz).  The event is definitely too huge to not preview, so here we go again!  Hopefully I do better with my picks this time.

Note: New to this edition of my previews is fighter rankings, which are relative to their weight class (or classes, for fighters like Diego Sanchez or Jake Shields who are transitioning between weight classes).  Rankings are from Bloody Elbow, which compiles subjective rankings from multiple sources.

*****

Heavyweight Bout

Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

Fighter Profiles

Brendan Schaub (6-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) is the runner-up of season 10 of The Ultimate Fighter, and is being built as a rising star in the division.  Schaub is without a doubt athletic, having made the practice squad for the Buffalo Bills.  However, he is still relatively new to professional MMA.  Schaub's striking is not technically sharp, nor is he great at takedown defense.  However, he makes up for these deficiencies through his punching power and scrambling ability.  Schaub can easily find himself in bad situations but has the ability to always get back to his feet and end anyone's night on any given moment.

(#13) Gabriel Gonzaga (11-5 MMA, 7-4 UFC, 3-2 last five) has found an unfortunate role as a gatekeeper for the heavyweight division, making quick work of lesser talents but not finding success against the top fighters in the division.  Gonzaga is probably most dangerous as a grappler, but he rarely tries to take the game to the ground.  Instead, he tends to make his bouts striking matches.  Gonzaga is still formidable as a striker, but tends to get himself into troublesome situations.  Gonzaga's weight of about 255 lbs does translate into a respectable amount of power, but at that weight, it is unsurprising that his cardio is not impressive.  As his fights enter the later rounds, Gonzaga tires and finds himself more and more vulnerable.

Pre-fight Analysis

Skill-wise, Gonzaga trumps Schaub in almost all departments.  However, his weaknesses are his mental game and physical conditioning, and these factors are what give Schaub a good chance of pulling out the win.  History dictates that this fight will take place largely on the feet.  Despite Gonzaga's excellent grappling skills, he will likely want to stand and bang.  Additionally, Schaub will probably be able to scramble back to his feet, which may frustrate his opponent.  The later this fight goes, the more the cards favor the better athlete in Schaub.  Therefore, for Gonzaga to win, he will either have to score a quick knockout or submission, or pick Schaub apart enough early on to affect his performance in the later rounds.  Meanwhile, Schaub's path to victory will either be the knockout punch, or a decision or late round TKO as Gonzaga wears down.  Both fighters have the ability to knock out their opponent with a single strike, and even if only for this, the odds for the fight should be closer than they are.  Schaub has more than just a punch's chance to win this fight, but Gonzaga's advantages early in the fight should not be dismissed.  I'll pick Gonzaga to win early, but I do like Schaub's chances.

Prediction: Gonzaga by TKO (strikes, Round 1)

Approximate Betting Odds: +160 (37%) Schaub, -200 (63%) Gonzaga

Betting Recommendation: On paper, Gonzaga is the better fighter, but he does have the tendency to disappoint, and Schaub's knockout power is a big plus.  Small play on Schaub.

*****

Light Heavyweight Bout

Tito Ortiz vs. Matt Hamill

Fighter Profiles

(#23) Tito Ortiz (15-7-1 MMA, 14-7-1 UFC, 1-3-1 last five) was once a dominant force in the UFC light heavyweight division, reigning as champion for more than two years.  However, he is now seemingly just a shadow of his old self, falling victim to repeated injuries, and not having won a fight since 2006.  "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" used his energetic ground and pound to dominate the division many years ago, but over the years his athleticism has declined, and his injuries take their toll on his conditioning as well.  Additionally, while other fighters have been evolving their games, Tito Ortiz is still just Tito Ortiz.  

(#18) Matt Hamill (9-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC, 4-1 last five) is most known for being the inspirational guy who overcame his deafness to become one of the UFC's top light heavyweights.  Although Hamill comes from a wrestling background, his MMA game is the definition of all-around.  Hamill participated in season 3 of The Ultimate Fighter and was actually coached by Tito Ortiz himself on the show.  Hamill does not have an explosive game - he prefers to stalk his opponent.  While Hamill eats some shots this way, he has a formidable enough striking game to compete against much of the division on the feet, and his iron chin keeps him out of trouble.

Pre-fight Analysis

We have a matchup between two wrestlers, and much of the time, the wrestling cancels out, turning the fight into a standup battle.  I don't expect much of the fight to be spent on the ground, although both fighters will try their luck at a shot, especially later in the rounds to try to sway the judges.  Hamill should be the better striker, and thus it will likely be Tito going in for more takedown attempts, especially because his MMA game plans continue to be one-dimensionally based on ground and pound.  For the most part, these shots from both fighters should be unsuccessful, though one man might play the percentage game and find success after many tries.  Because on the feet both fighters are rather tough to finish and not consistently devastating finishers, a decision is likely unless someone gets a takedown early in the round.  I'd bet on the fight staying on the feet for the most part, possibly with Ortiz getting a takedown to steal one of the rounds.  For the most part, though, it should be Hamill's night, especially since just as in his other recent fights, Ortiz is not likely to show up at 100%.

Prediction: Hamill by decision

Approximate Betting Odds: +145 (39%) Ortiz, -175 (61%) Hamill

Betting Recommendation: Ortiz's line is being inflated by his name, and honestly, he should not be fighting anymore.  Moderate play on Hamill.

*****

Welterweight Bout

Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago

Fighter Profiles

Diego Sanchez (21-4 MMA, 10-4 UFC, 3-2 last five) is one of the winners of the original Ultimate Fighter and well-known for his cardio, iron chin, and relentless offense (as well as his "yus!" cartwheels).  His technique is not fantastic and has not really evolved throughout the years to keep up with the improving competition.  However, he had for a while remained successful if only for his conditioning and energy.  After getting destroyed by then-lightweight champion BJ Penn, Sanchez moved back up to welterweight, where he was manhandled by John Hathaway.  The UFC welterweight division is not as deep as its lightweight division, but Sanchez needs to deal with bigger opponents who punch harder and are more difficult to take down.  Sanchez's inability to take down John Hathaway was discouraging, especially in light of Hathaway's recent loss to Mike Pyle, but Sanchez did not look like himself, so that fight may have been a fluke.  Unfortunately for him, things don't get any easier for him, with the UFC giving him arguably a tougher opponent in Paulo Thiago.

(#9) Paulo Thiago (13-2 MMA, 3-2 UFC, 3-2 last five) remains an enigma in the UFC welterweight division after finishing top-tier fighters Josh Koscheck and Mike Swick but getting manhandled by Martin Kampmann in his most recent fight.  Strangely, he is considered to be both vastly overrated and vastly underrated at the same time.  Thiago's striking is ugly but effective - I guess you could say this is what one might expect from a fighter who is in the special police force.  Thiago has black belts in judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but his groundwork in the MMA context has not been too impressive, and he hasn't been able to do much off his back against less seasoned grapplers.  Also fitting of the police force persona is an iron man fighting style.  Thiago has never been finished, he is not one to back down mentally, and he stalks his opponent, forcing them to remain active at all times.

Pre-fight Analysis

On the feet, Sanchez is not likely to find success, and he might find himself getting lit up just like in his fight against BJ Penn.  Sanchez may be able to squeeze some strikes in through pure speed and energy alone, though at welterweight, Sanchez's speed is diminished.  Additionally, because neither fighter is likely to knock out their opponent with a small volume of strikes, whoever is losing the standup battle should look to quickly take the fight to the ground.  In the most likely scenario, Sanchez will be the one looking for the takedown, and whether he can score some and keep Thiago on the ground while avoiding submissions is completely up to speculation.  Sanchez's shot won't have the same explosiveness as it did at lightweight and his wrestling in his last match was unimpressive.  However, Thiago has been shown to be vulnerable to the takedown and top control even against non-elite wrestlers.  Because both fighters are notorious for being incredibly difficult to finish, I'll predict a decision, and I foresee Thiago outpointing Sanchez on the feet.  Sanchez may be able to steal the decision with his wrestling, but how good his wrestling will be is a gigantic X-factor.

Prediction: Thiago by decision

Approximate Betting Odds: Even Sanchez (47%), -130 (53%) Thiago

Betting Recommendation: Sanchez's last fight may have just been a fluke, and Paulo Thiago is still a mystery.  No bet.

*****

Welterweight Bout

Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann

Fighter Profiles

(#10) Jake Shields (25-4-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC, 5-0 last five) finally enters the UFC after having cleaned out the welterweight and middleweight divisions of several other organizations.  After climbing high in the middleweight rankings (largely due to a lack of competition in Strikeforce at welterweight), Shields moves back down to welterweight as a potential challenger to UFC champion Georges St-Pierre.  As of right now his middleweight ranking is #4, and his ranking of #10 at welterweight is only so low because he has not fought in the division for a long time.  Shields has never been known for his striking, but his wrestling and jiu-jitsu are extremely effective.  Shields has not looked invincible during his 14-fight win streak, but he has always been able to use his grappling and strong will as neutralizers.  While his shoot is not particularly explosive, he usually manages to get the fight to the ground through technique and persistence.  On the ground, Shields is an elite positional grappler, having the uncanny ability to get to mount at will.  His ground and pound is notorious for lacking power, being more of a pitter-patter than damaging.  However, the last two decision victories against Dan Henderson and Jason Miller are more exceptions than rule, as Shields typically finishes fights through TKO or submission despite his lack of pure power.

(#7) Martin Kampmann (17-3 MMA, 8-2 UFC, 4-1 last five) was one fight away from a title shot before getting knocked out by Paul Daley.  After another impressive run, Kampmann now finds himself one or two wins away from getting that title shot.  As a fighter, Kampmann is a dangerous striker, having long limbs and the muay thai background to effectively use them.  Also like other fighters with lanky builds, Kampmann's chokes are dangerous.  Overall, though, Kampmann is more of an all-around fighter with no major weaknesses, and who has enough of a skill set to be effective in many situations and against different types of opponents, while not relying too much on one particular aspect of his game.  In particular, Kampmann looked extremely impressive in his most recent fight, where he manhandled Paulo Thiago and won a decision convincingly by out-pointing Thiago on the feet, as well as mixing in some takedowns and working his ground and pound while avoiding submissions.

Pre-fight Analysis

Two big questions will determine how this fight will play out.  First, will Martin Kampmann be able to avoid the takedown?  While Kampmann showed off his offensive wrestling against Paulo Thiago, we didn't really get to see how his takedown defense has improved.  He has certainly worked a lot on takedown defense, but much of the time, no amount of work will save you from getting taken down by a great grappler (who made quick work wrestling-wise of the Olympic-level wrestler Dan Henderson).  If Jake Shields is able to end up on top of Kampmann, Shields will have a great chance of finishing the fight, and it will be up to Kampmann to somehow work his way out or - more likely - try to merely survive the round.  Second, will Martin Kampmann be able to use his striking effectively enough to make up for Jake Shields's takedown ability?  There is no question that Kampmann is the better striker of the two and that Shields's objective will be to go for the takedown.  Fortunately for Kampmann, Shields's takedowns are more based on technique than explosiveness.  This will give Kampmann a little more leeway to land strikes while maintaining distance.  We've already seen Shields rocked by Dan Henderson, and there is also a very real possibility of Kampmann stunning the UFC newcomer.  We've already seen Shields work his way out of a rough situation against a much bigger man with one-punch knockout power, so Kampmann will certainly have to unleash a string of solid hits to finish Shields and avoid the takedown.  Alternatively, Kampmann can opt to play the distance game and try to out-point Shields to a decision victory.  In the end, I think Shields will get those takedowns and will have a good chance of finishing Kampmann after getting mount.  Kampmann is definitely a good underdog pick though and has a great chance of getting the win.

Prediction: Shields by submission (rear naked choke, Round 2)

Approximate Betting Odds: -260 (69%) Shields, +210 (31%) Kampmann

Betting Recommendation: Shields is the rightful favorite, but he is new to the elite ranks of the UFC, and Kampmann is by no means an easy test.  Small play on Kampmann.

*****

Heavyweight Championship Bout

Brock Lesnar (Champ) vs. Cain Velasquez

Fighter Profiles

(#1) Brock Lesnar (5-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) is relatively new to MMA but already fights like a true champion, having won the UFC heavyweight championship by defeating Randy Couture, then defending it twice against Frank Mir and Shane Carwin.  The former WWE star is also a former NCAA Division I wrestling champion and uses his wrestling to smother his opponents.  Lesnar walks at around 285 lbs, cutting weight to reach the 265 lb weight limit.  However, his size is essentially pure muscle, and for a big man, Lesnar's explosiveness and athleticism is incredible.  Lesnar's striking is rudimentary but powerful, and in his last fight, he proved that he can take quite a beating.  If Lesnar ends up on top of his opponent, he will use his weight to prevent them from escaping, and has the ability to do a large amount of damage without giving his opponent much space at all.

(#3) Cain Velasquez (8-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC, 5-0 last five) has made a meteoric rise to the top of the UFC heavyweight division.  Also a high-level collegiate wrestler, Velasquez has relied largely on his wrestling to dominate his opponents.  However, he has also shown a very great improvement in the striking department.  Velasquez's chin is questionable, as he has been dazed on several occasions, and his ground and pound, much like that of a certain Jake Shields, is more about volume punching than power punching.  At roughly 235 lbs, Velasquez gives up a lot of size to many of the other fighters in the weight class, but he makes up for this disadvantage with explosiveness and an endless gas tank.  While many other heavyweights are very dangerous in the first round and fade in the later stages, Velasquez is able to carry out an all out attack for the entirety of at least a three-round fight.

Pre-fight Analysis

There are so many questions leading into this fight.  Can Lesnar take down Velasquez?  Can Velasquez take down Lesnar?  Does Lesnar have the cardio to go a full five rounds?  Can Cain survive Lesnar's ground and pound should he end up on bottom?  The fight starts on the feet so let's start there.  Lesnar's striking is more powerful but Cain's should be quicker and more technical.  If Lesnar connects with a sold punch, it will likely be goodnight for Velasquez.  Likewise, Lesnar was sent curling up after a few shots from Shane Carwin.  Fortunately for the champ, Cain Velasquez does not pack the same power than Carwin does.  However, Lesnar may see himself eating more strikes than he ever has before.  If the fight hits the ground, then whoever is on top has the clear advantage, and the man on bottom will try his best to get the fight back on the feet.  Lesnar can easily get a stoppage win from a knockout punch, or by getting into Cain's half-guard, where the smaller Velasquez will have little chance of escaping.  For Velasquez, his path to victory will more likely be wearing the champ down to get a decision or a late-round TKO.  If Cain gets Brock to the ground - whether it be through striking or wrestling - he will have to be much smarter about his ground and pound than Shane Carwin was.  I will have to go with the heart pick here (can anyone say Frankie Edgar vs. BJ Penn?) and choose Cain Velasquez to avoid Lesnar's takedowns and secure the victory by wearing down the champion through striking before getting a late-round takedown or knockdown and sealing the win with ground and pound.

Prediction: Velasquez by TKO (strikes, Round 4)

Approximate Betting Odds: -155 (58%) Lesnar, +125 (42%) Velasquez

Betting Recommendation: Same betting strategy as with the rest of Lesnar's fights.  No play.

*****

My Official Fantasy Bets (Main Card)

100 points on Brendan Schaub at +160 to win 160 points
280 points on Matt Hamill at -175 to win 160 points
50 points on Martin Kampmann at +210 to win 105 points

Max win: 425 points
Max loss: 430 points

UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs. Palhares Predictions

So I went a measly 3-2 in my predictions for UFC 118 (well, 5-2 if you include both my correct picks for the Spike TV card, which weren't included in my write-up), though I ended up well in the money in my fantasy betting scheme.  The next big MMA event is UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs. Palhares, which will be shown free on Spike TV on Wednesday, 9/15 at 7 PM (central time).  This event will lead immediately into the premiere of The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs. Team Koscheck, which marks the twelfth season of the show and will feature lightweights.

As usual, the Fight Night features many lightweights who are just a notch below the UFC's upper echelon.  The division is extremely deep, and many of these fighters would be pushed down the card on a PPV event.  The match-ups are great, though, and all of the televised fights should be fun and exciting in some way.

*****

Lightweight Bout

Ross Pearson vs. Cole Miller

Fighter Profiles

Ross Pearson (11-3 MMA, 3-0 UFC, 4-1 last five) is best known as the winner of season 9 of The Ultimate Fighter, and over the last year he has been establishing himself as a potential top-tier lightweight.  Pearson has a stalking style that gives his opponent little space to maneuver.  He has great technical boxing, muay thai, and striking defense, and his knees from the thai plum are lethal.  However, the rest of his clinch game is unspectacular despite his background in judo, and his base is largely untested, as he has not yet faced any of the lightweight division's plethora of wrestlers.

Cole Miller (16-4 MMA, 5-2 UFC, 3-2 last five) is riding a five-fight streak where his three wins have all been by submission and his two losses have both been by knockout.  And that's pretty much the deal with Cole Miller, whose striking is unimpressive, but is complemented by an ability to pull off a submission out of nowhere.  Miller does not yet have a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but his grappling game is very effective in an MMA context, and his long, skinny limbs are dangerous when it comes into sinking in chokes.  Unfortunately, his wins as of late have come against fellow grapplers, while his track record against strikers is not so great.

Pre-fight Analysis

Pearson's style is Miller's kryptonite, and if Pearson plays it smart, he should be able to get the win by knockout with aggressive play or riding out a dominating decision.  Even in the clinch, Pearson's game works towards thai plum or judo takedowns as opposed to the standard wrestling double-leg takedown.  This style of clinch game should keep Pearson out of danger when it comes to falling into submissions while attempting a takedown.  Miller's game plan will have to involve getting the fight to the ground somehow, but he is not known for his takedowns, and Pearson's grappling experience should be enough to stifle that strategy.

Prediction: Pearson by TKO (strikes, Round 2)

Approximate Betting Odds: -280 (70%) Pearson, +210 (30%) Miller

Betting Recommendation: I don't think Miller's chances of pulling off a submission are good enough to give him a +210 line or anything close.  Moderate play on Pearson.

*****

Lightweight Bout

Jim Miller vs. Gleison Tibau

Fighter Profiles

Jim Miller (17-2 MMA, 6-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) has a very impressive résumé, with his only losses coming from lightweight champ Frankie Edgar and #1 contender Gray Maynard.  His credentials would have you think that he's just another one of those NCAA Division I wrestlers who picked up Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to get into MMA, but he's actually much more of an all-around fighter and his wrestling is actually perhaps even underutilized.  Miller's striking won't set off fireworks, but his deliberate style is very effective and packs some power.  If the fight does hit the ground, Miller will take control and look for submissions as opposed to riding it out like many wrestlers do.

Gleison Tibau (21-6 MMA, 7-4 UFC, 4-1 last five) is somewhat of a gatekeeper in the lightweight division, destroying lesser opponents like Caol Uno and Josh Neer while coming up short against the division's top tier fighters.  He is notorious for the tremendous weights at which he arrives on fight night, and yet his physical conditioning never seems to be affected by these cuts.  His size has pretty much been his biggest advantage, though this is not to take away from his great all-around game, which features heavy punches and huge takedowns.

Pre-fight Analysis

Miller and Tibau are fighters with styles that are largely similar in that they are all-around fighters as opposed to specialists in one area.  However, Miller is a more technical fighter while Tibau is all about power.  Miller will try to fight smart, and Tibau will try to make the fight anything but a smart one.  On the feet, Miller probably has the advantage overall, but is always in danger of getting hit by a huge punch from Tibau.  On the ground, whoever is on top will have the advantage, and in this case I believe Tibau is more likely to take down Miller than vice versa.  Miller is the odds-on favorite likely due to his more sexy record, but at this point to me it's a coin toss (though if they were to fight 100 times I believe one of them would probably win at least 65 of those).  It has the potential to be a very exciting fight, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the opposite was the case.  The one thing that makes me lean toward Tibau is Miller's previous victory against Mark Bocek (a fight many feel that Miller lost), where Miller was taken down several times and his weaknesses were exposed.  I'll look for Tibau to go for the takedowns and maintain pressure on his opponent to snag the decision.

Prediction: Tibau by decision

Approximate Betting Odds: -170 Miller (60%), +140 (40%) Tibau

Betting Recommendation: This is an extremely hard fight to predict, but I think at the very least the odds favor Miller much more than they should.  Small play on Tibau.

*****

Lightweight Bout

Efrain Escudero vs. Charles Oliveira

Fighter Profiles

Efrain Escudero (13-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) is the lightweight winner of Season 8 of The Ultimate Fighter and had an undefeated MMA record until a loss in early 2010 to rising star Evan Dunham.  Escudero is an all-around fighter who can play to his opponents' weaknesses, though in his loss against Dunham, he perhaps had too much confidence in his jiu-jitsu, which should have been a no-no against a grappling specialist.  Escudero has a good combination of speed and power on the feet, as well as a background in wrestling.

Charles Oliveira (13-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC, 5-0 last five) made a meteoric rise to UFC notoriety after pulling off a beautiful armbar in his previous fight against Darren Elkins immediately after being taken down.  With that being the only fight in a major MMA organization on Oliveira's résumé, it's tough to judge how strong the remainder of his MMA skill set is.  His speed and ground skills are already evident, but we await to see how good his striking and takedown abilities are at the UFC level.

Pre-fight Analysis

We all saw what happened when someone had the game plan of taking Oliveira to the ground.  Surely Escudero will be interested in keeping the fight on the feet, especially since Oliveira's previous win and Escudero's only loss have both been by armbar.  The quality of Oliveira's striking is yet to be seen, and if Oliveira ends up out-striking Escudero, he will likely use the strikes to set up a takedown and submission.  However, Escudero is no easy opponent on the feet, and I am not so inclined to think that the jiu-jitsu specialist from the minor leagues will be winning the striking battle.  Instead, I expect Oliveira to go for takedowns.  Again, we don't know how good the Brazilian is at getting the fight to the ground, and Escudero has certainly worked on his defensive wrestling in preparation for this match.  Escudero needs to fight carefully to avoid the risk of a takedown, so I don't think he will be landing strikes in volume.  However, his power should be enough to keep Oliveira off kilter for the whole fight and possibly even score a knockout.

Prediction: Escudero by decision

Approximate Betting Odds: -190 (62.5%) Escudero, +155 (37.5%) Oliveira

Betting Recommendation: This line is certainly affected by overreaction to recent performances by both fighters and sway the line towards Oliveira more than it probably should.  Oliveira's chances are not insignificant, though, and he may actually be as good as we think.  Small play on Escudero.

*****

Middleweight Bout

Nate Marquardt vs. Rousimar Palhares

Fighter Profiles

Nate Marquardt (29-9-2 MMA, 8-3 UFC, 3-2 last five) is only 31 years old but is one of the most experienced fighters in MMA after being King of Pancrase in the days of the UFC's infancy.  Throughout his career he has been among the top middleweights, and he was one fight away from a second shot at middleweight champion Anderson Silva before losing a decision to Chael Sonnen.  Marquardt's main background is in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but his striking is no joke, and he recently had a run of three straight knockout wins in the UFC, most famously making quick work of Demian Maia in just 21 seconds.

Rousimar Palhares (11-2 MMA, 4-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) is perhaps one of the most feared fighters in the middleweight division, and this is not so much because of his overall skill as much as his proficiency in the most dangerous legal move in jiu-jitsu - the heel hook.  An incredible six out of Palhares's eleven wins have come via heel hook.  The rest of his jiu-jitsu game is strong as well, and as opposed to positional grappling, Palhares will try to find the submission from any position.  Palhares is built like a tank, but this is also partly because he is rather short for the middleweight division.  He gives up reach against most of the division, and thus has an intrinsic disadvantage in the striking department.

Pre-fight Analysis

Obviously, Palhares is very dangerous if he gets a hold of a leg (or any limb for that matter).  However, Marquardt should have the grappling skills to avoid being caught in a submission.  If it's Marquardt dictating the fight - and I expect that to be the case - the fight should stay on the feet.  Even though Marquardt is not exactly the biggest middleweight, he will still have roughly a three-inch reach advantage over Palhares, and should use this effectively on the feet.  Marquardt will likely play it safe, staying out of grappling range.  I foresee him using his more effective striking and his reach advantage to pick Palhares apart on the feet.  Naturally, Palhares will try to close the distance to initiate a grappling game, but Marquardt's grappling should be good enough to defend takedown and submission attempts, and to push Palhares back into striking range.

Prediction: Marquardt by decision

Approximate Betting Odds: -240 (67%) Marquardt, +190 (33%) Palhares

Betting Recommendation: I'd like to say that the line is good for a small play on Marquardt, but I don't feel too good about it, so as a conservative (fantasy) bettor, I'm staying away.

*****

My Official Fantasy Bets (Main Card)


199 points on Ross Pearson at -280 to win 71 points
125 points on Gleison Tibau at +140 to win 175 points
76 points on Efrain Escudero at -190 to win 40 points

Max win: 286 points
Max loss: 400 points

UFC 118 Predictions

UFC is heading to Boston for the first time this Saturday, and it's got a stacked card.  That, along with the great run UFC's had over the summer (115, 116, and 117 were phenomenal events) means I'm back in the MMA writing deal.  Here's some pre-fight commentary and predictions for the five fights on the main card (note that two preliminary fights will be shown for free on Spike TV immediately before the pay-per-view).

In the order the bouts will be contested:

*****

Welterweight Bout

Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis

Fighter Profiles

Nate Diaz (12-5 MMA, 7-3 UFC, 2-3 last five) is entering his second fight after his move up from lightweight, where he was having a not-so-great run in a deep division.  His last bout was technically at middleweight when his opponent failed to make welterweight, but Diaz used crisp striking to get the TKO win.  Diaz has a reach of 76", which was huge for the lightweight division and at welterweight is still respectable.  Like his brother Nick, Nate prefers the strategy of light punches in volume, rather than winding up for the heavy hits.  However, at welterweight, his striking does have a little more oomph to it, from his not having to cut so much weight.  Diaz's main strength remains his jiu-jitsu, and his lankiness is ideal the submission game.

Marcus Davis (17-6 MMA, 9-4 UFC, 3-2 last five) comes from a boxing background, having amassed a 17-1-2 professional boxing record before making the permanent transition to MMA.  Davis is by all means a scrapper, and would easily take a hit in order to land one of his own.  As a result of this, his style is often sloppy.  In addition, when you consider his boxing career and his MMA career, Davis has taken a lot of hits, and at the age of 37 those hits have likely taken a big toll on his ability to absorb damage.  Still, Davis's knockout power must still be respected, and that alone keeps him in contention for any fight.

Pre-fight Analysis

Diaz has a six-inch reach advantage on Davis and always uses his reach advantage well, even when taking into account Davis's background in boxing.  On the other hand, Davis's power means that he can score the knockout even if he is being outclassed.  If Diaz takes the smartest route, he will try to take the fight to the ground, either through a takedown or more easily by pulling guard.  This area is where Diaz has the clear advantage.  However, both Diaz brothers have had a history of wanting to stand and bang despite their proficiency in Gracie jiu-jitsu.  Davis will certainly want to keep the fight on the feet, and I have the feeling Diaz will comply.  I think Diaz will still be better on the feet though, working his way to a decision victory, although we may see Davis trying a desperation takedown and getting caught in a choke.

Prediction: Nate Diaz by decision

Betting Recommendation: Diaz should win this fight 4 times out of 5.  This warrants a moderate play on Diaz at -250 or better.

*****

Lightweight Bout

Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard

Fighter Profiles

Kenny Florian (14-4 MMA, 11-3 UFC, 4-1 last five) has improved constantly and greatly throughout his stint in the UFC and is now one of the most complete fighters in the sport.  Florian has a background in jiu-jitsu and muay thai and has successfully incorporated these styles into a complete MMA game.  With the exception of his fight against BJ Penn, Florian comes into his fights with great game plans, which typically use striking to set up a late takedown, leading into a submission (almost always by rear naked choke).  In addition, Florian's elbow strikes are notorious for causing cuts, which can mess up any opponent's game plan.

Gray Maynard (9-0 (1 NC) MMA, 7-0 (1 NC) UFC, 5-0 last five) is a wrestler-boxer with a very deliberate style that has led to six straight decision victories in the UFC.  However, this conservative approach has also resulted in a record whose only blemish is a no contest from an odd incident in his first bout in the UFC.  Maynard knocked himself out while taking down his opponent, but this takedown also injured his opponent, forcing him to submit at the same time - resulting in a no contest.

Pre-fight Analysis

Florian was able to beat up wrestler Clay Guida enough to take the fight to the ground, but the more credentialed Maynard will be more difficult to bring down - especially because he won't get hit as much as Guida usually does.  Maynard will likely spend the first round on his feet trying to beat Florian in a standup war.  I expect Florian to get the better of Maynard on the feet, and I expect the fight to hit the ground after the first round - either by Maynard's will as he tries to win the remaining two rounds, or by Florian's as his striking makes Maynard more susceptible to the takedown.  Florian is very dangerous on the ground, even from the bottom, where he uses elbow strikes to inflict a lot of damage.  If Florian finds himself on top (through a takedown or a sweep), it's game over.  Maynard actually has a decent chance of pulling out the decision victory, as long as he slows the pace down enough to look to outpoint Florian on the feet.  But I think Florian will win the fight, though I can't decide whether he'll get his trademark rear naked choke within the 15 minute time period or will settle for the decision.  I'll flip a coin to decide.

Prediction: Kenny Florian by submission (rear naked choke, Round 3)

Betting Recommendation: -175/+150 looks like an accurate line.  No bet.

*****

Middleweight Bout

Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda

Fighter Profiles

Demian Maia (12-2 MMA, 6-2 UFC, 3-2 last five) is a jiu-jitsu world champion, and is not afraid to pull guard or even half-guard on his opponents.  He is a huge step above even other Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts in the division, and his groundwork is elegant and a pleasure to watch.  However, his striking game is very limited both in terms of technique and power, and in an MMA context he is not the best at getting the fight to the ground.  Because of his lack of takedown power, Maia often finds himself doing the butt scoot to try to grab a hold of a leg and drag his opponent down - not the safest technique.  However, once the fight is on the ground, it's just a matter of time before Maia pulls off the submission.

Mario Miranda (12-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) has a background in Brazilian jiu-jitsu but has actually won more fights by knockout than by submission.  To be honest, I am not too familiar with Miranda, who is making his main card debut as a last-minute replacement for Alan Belcher.  Thus, my analysis will be slightly based on assumptions regarding Miranda's skills.

Pre-fight Analysis

Maia's three most recent fights don't spell well for him.  He was unable to take down Anderson Silva (who was subsequently taken down at will by Chael Sonnen), and two fights before that he was knocked out quickly by Nate Marquardt, who is more renowned as a grappler than as a striker.  In between those fights was an unimpressive decision victory over Dan Miller that stayed on the feet.  Miranda should have the advantage in the striking department, and Maia will need to take the fight to the ground.  The outcome of the fight will depend on whether or not this happens.  Miranda is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and should be able to avoid getting trapped in guard.  I see Maia most likely meeting a similar fate as in his fight with Marquardt, but you can never know what tricks Maia has up his sleeve (example: Maia vs. Chael Sonnen).

Prediction: Mario Miranda by TKO (punches, Round 2)

Betting Recommendation: -200/+160 seems slightly in favor of a play on Miranda, but there are too many factors in play and the risk is high.  I suggest no bet on this one, though a small play on Miranda is justified if you are a high-risk bettor.

*****

Heavyweight Bout

Randy Couture vs. James Toney

Fighter Profiles

Randy Couture (18-10 MMA, 15-7 UFC, 3-2 last five) has a record that makes him look worse than he actually is, and this is because until recently, almost all of his fights were championship fights against all the best fighters the UFC had to offer in two weight classes.  Even at the age of 47, Couture is in shape and relies on a Greco-Roman wrestling base that does not require a lot of speed to execute successfully.  Couture is also a very smart fighter and knows what he should and shouldn't be doing at his age and against any opponent.

James Toney (0-0 MMA) is a professional boxer who has pestered UFC president Dana White enough to convince him to set up this match.  Toney is looking to make some bucks after his disappearance from relevance in the world of boxing.  The former boxing great should still have the best boxing and the best chin in MMA.  However, boxers in MMA are notorious for having poor footwork when it comes to defending kicks and takedowns.  Toney is brand new to MMA and may have learned the basics of all the relevant concepts - however, he will still absolutely be relying on his punching power to score any win in this sport.

Pre-fight Analysis

James Toney is brand new to MMA and there is no way he will be able to compete with a high-level wrestler once the distance is closed.  Toney's only hope for winning is by the so-called "puncher's chance."  He might catch Randy as he is trying to close distance and drop him with a single punch, or he might have even developed enough footwork to keep the fight at a distance for a little bit.  Couture's strategy is no secret - take Toney down, then either pound him out or submit him.  Couture is smart enough to be able to successfully do this any time he wants.  However, Toney's boxing technique, pure power, and Randy's increasingly fragile chin could spell disaster for the UFC hall of famer.  Slim chance though.

Prediction: Randy Couture by submission (rear naked choke, Round 1)

Betting Recommendation: James Toney is a huge wild card coming into the fight.  He may surprise, and the pain of a Randy Couture loss may be lessened by a bit of cash inflow.  Small bet on Toney at +500 or better; don't wager any more than what you're willing to lose.

*****

Lightweight Championship Bout

Frankie Edgar (Champ) vs. BJ Penn

Fighter Profiles

Frankie Edgar (12-1 MMA, 7-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) is a wrestler with an endless gas tank and a dynamic, high-energy fighting style.  He is small for a lightweight, typically not even having to cut weight to make 155 lbs.  However, what he lacks in size and strength, he makes up for in speed and stamina.  Because of this style, Edgar's fights tend to go to decision but are exciting to watch (much like fights in the WEC 145 and 135 lb. divisions).  Edgar used tricky movement and well-timed striking to earn a close decision victory over Penn at UFC 112.  However, many believed that Penn should have won, and the judges' puzzling scorecards (50-45, 49-46, 48-47, all for Edgar; I scored it 48-47 Edgar) only add to the controversy.

BJ Penn (15-6-1 MMA, 11-5-1 UFC, 3-2 last five) has arguably the best boxing in the lightweight division from a combined power/technique perspective.  He combines these skills with the best takedown defense in the sport - which is due to his balance and flexibility - and he even has the ability to inflict heavy damage while defending a takedown.  Even if the fight hit's the ground, Penn is a world champion jiu-jitsu artist, though for some reason he always prefers to keep the fight standing.  Penn's major downfall has historically been his conditioning.  He has had several poor performances due to cardio issues, and he did not look so great physically in his last fight with Edgar.

Pre-fight Analysis

The previous fight between the two could have gone either way, although both times I viewed the fight, I scored it 48-47 for Edgar.  BJ seemed rather listless in that fight, perhaps due to the Abu Dhabi heat in the outdoor arena.  However, Frankie Edgar decisively controlled the pace of the fight, and I expect the same to be the case in the rematch.  Edgar's aggressiveness caused him to fall victim to solid counterpunches from BJ, but these punches were mostly jabs that didn't cause much damage.  Assuming BJ's conditioning is better leading into this fight, I expect his punches to hurt more.  I think we'll see much of the same, with Edgar mixing up striking from all different angles with takedown attempts to try to keep BJ guessing.  Meanwhile, BJ will try to counterpunch his way to victory, but I don't see BJ being the aggressor because of Edgar's endless gas tank.  It will come down to which person is landing the better strikes that night, and while my brain says it will be BJ, I'll have to go with the heart pick and choose Frankie Edgar to retain his title through a five-round decision.

Prediction: Frankie Edgar by decision

Betting Recommendation: The odds assume that the previous fight was a fluke.  Regardless, the underdog play on Edgar should still be a sound move because of the effect of BJ's popularity on his betting line.  Small play on Edgar at +250 or better.

Classical Corner: Chopin's Études, Op. 25

We continue where we left off last time, and now delve into Frédéric Chopin's second set of twelve études.

*****

The 'Aeolian Harp' Étude is one of the most popular ones of the set, getting its nickname from the harp-like arpeggios throughout pretty much the entire piece.

'Aeolian Harp' Étude, Op. 25, No. 1 (Pianist: Idil Biret)

From a technical perspective, the piece is great for working on proper wrist movement to reach across large intervals, and for playing melodies with just the pinky finger.  The constant broken chords give the piece a very flowing nature, and if it had not been given the 'harp' moniker, I'd probably be thinking of images of water.  On top of the flowing 'harp' notes is a really simple and pretty melody, and as a whole the piece has kind of an arc structure, building up to a climax before settling down again at the end.

*****

The 'Wrong Note' Étude is not one of Chopin's more popular pieces (if I was choosing these excerpts by popularity, I would have chosen the 'Butterfly Étude' (Op. 25, No. 9)), but I include the clip of it here just because it's interesting and a fun listen.

'Wrong Note' Étude, Op. 25, No. 5 (Pianist: Murray Perahia)

This étude is wonderfully written to make it sound like the pianist is playing the wrong notes - and yet all those wrong notes sound awesome.  In the middle section of a piece comes a nice melody (without the wrong note theme - keep in mind that this nickname and all the nicknames for these études were not officially given to these pieces by Chopin himself).  Then finally, the original theme comes back giving this piece a nice little A-B-A format.  While not as complex as some of Chopin's other études, this one is interesting in its own way and probably even one of my favorites.

*****

I would call the 'Winter Wind' Étude the masterpiece of this set, combining Liszt-ian technical elements with Chopin's masterful ability to make piano music exciting and passionate.  Don't be fooled by the very slow and quiet opening - this is just the calm before the huge storm of notes that barrage you for the rest of the piece.

'Winter Wind' Étude, Op. 25, No. 11 (Pianist: Grigory Sokolov)

The nickname 'Winter Wind' is immediately obvious once you listen to the piece, and I would assume that this kind of imagery was in Chopin's mind while creating this piece.  Just as is the case in Chopin's famous 'Fantaisie-Impromptu,' none of the notes really make sense when you play the piece slowly - and yet when everything is put together in full speed the end product works perfectly and is indescribably awesome.  Grigory Sokolov's performance in particular brings out all the fire (or should I say ice?) that Chopin intended the piece to have, all while maintaining musical clarity.

*****

Étude, Op. 25, No. 12 is sometimes nicknamed the 'Ocean' Étude, and I can see why - just like the 'Aeolian Harp' Étude, this piece is dominated by continuous runs of arpeggios.  In this case though, instead of calm arpeggios we have violent ones - so in my opinion the name 'Ocean' is not quite descriptive enough.  Maybe something more like 'Sea Storm,' or something that means basically the same thing but sounds a little sexier.

Étude, Op. 25, No. 12 (Pianist: Georges Cziffra)

A popular trend while playing this piece is to start a little on the quieter side and build up to a loud climax.  Usually this practice would make sense, as it would give the piece development.  However, in my opinion, this kind of interpretation kind of misses the point of the piece.  Chopin's directions say to start loud and end very very loud.  Georges Cziffra is well-known for his tendency to have completely different interpretations of pieces from everyone else - we can call this the Glenn Gould Club - and in this case he might even be in the minority by playing most of the piece loud.  Some of Cziffra's interpretations are a bit weird to me but this one is right on the money.  This is not to say that his interpretation is the only correct one.  The writing makes this piece great either way, and it's a great way for Chopin to conclude his étude collection (I like to consider Op. 10 and Op. 25 as "Chopin's Études" while thinking of the 'Trois nouvelles études' set as a separate entity).

*****

My next four favorite in the set:

• Étude, Op. 25, No. 2 - Sounds like mice scurrying, just like Étude, Op. 10, No. 2
• Étude, Op. 25, No. 6 - Very difficult étude with the right hand playing two notes simultaneously for much of the piece
• Étude, Op. 25, No. 7 - Sometimes nicknamed the 'Cello' Étude for its lyricism in the left hand
• 'Butterfly' Étude, Op. 25, No. 9 - Quick, light, and jolly melody

Just as was the case with the previous set of études, I can recommend every piece in the set, and would also suggest listening to the entire series from beginning to end, or even both sets of études back to back.

Classical Corner: Chopin's Études, Op. 10

Frédéric Chopin's études are so consistently masterful that I will need to devote this edition of Classical Corner to his first set of twelve études (Opus 10), and make another post for his second set of twelve (Opus 25).  In the most literal sense, an étude (which is French for 'study') is a piece intended as an exercise, to help the musician develop some kind of technique.  It is then no surprise that many of Chopin's études are very difficult to play.  However, while some other composers may have sacrificed musicality in order to emphasize technique (resulting in a somewhat boring end product), Chopin actually uses the difficult techniques to increase the musicality of his pieces.  Many of these pieces have become very popular in the piano repertoire, and have even taken on well-known nicknames despite the fact that Chopin did not himself nickname his music.  This is just a testament to how well the music speaks to the listener - that the composer did not need to tell people what it should sound like, yet listeners were able to understand.

The wavier the hair, the better the music

For purposes of shortening this entry, I will focus on four representative examples of great pieces from this set of 'Douze grandes études.'  Every single piece in the opus is great, though, and all of them are really different.  In other words, the entire set of études is worth a listen after you hear these four.

*****

First, let's dispel the notion that all the études are really fast, technical, blurs of notes.  Many of them are indeed very fast, but Op. 10, No. 3 shows that there are other technical skills to be learned other than playing fast.

Étude, Op. 10, No. 3 (Pianist: Sviatoslav Richter)

In this case, the emphasis is on musicality - on phrasing a melody that is played primarily with the pinky of the right hand.  The middle portion has an increased passion and has some moderately technical passages, but once again, the focus is on shaping the melody.  In a way, this skill is required in even the most basic of pieces, but Chopin's piece emphasizes the skill enough to warrant the title of 'étude.'  Additionally, this piece comes after two études that emphasize speed and dexterity in the right hand, so for the pianist playing all the études in order, this piece welcomes a nice contrast (and of course a bit of rest).

*****

Op. 10, No. 4 is probably my favorite of the set, and one reason for this is the diverse set of interpretations.  Some pianists prefer a steadier pace, while others - like Vladimir Horowitz - instead opt for a more chaotic interpretation.

Étude, Op. 10, No. 4 (Pianist: Vladimir Horowitz)

This étude exercises dexterity in both hands, with fast runs being traded between both hands.  Thus, the piece is difficult to execute well because both hands need to play with an equal speed, dynamic, and articulation.  Speaking of dynamics, the way this piece builds up and down is amazing - and it is because of both the writing and the performance.  Immediately, images of a thunderstorm come to mind when listening to this piece.

Every time someone plays this piece, a thunderstorm starts somewhere else

*****

The 'Black Key' Étude (Op. 10, No. 5) is one of the most popular of Chopin's études from both a listener's and a piano player's perspective.  For the listener, it's a great piece that is quick but not violent - in fact, it can be quite delicate, depending on the performer.  For the pianist, it's typically among the first Chopin études one learns, perhaps because it sounds a lot more difficult than it really is.  Sadly, this makes the piece all the more popular to play poorly, and more often than not, a non-professional will blaze through the piece very loud and without much musicality.

'Black Key' Étude, Op. 10, No. 5 (Pianist: Maurizio Pollini)

Fortunately for Maurizio Pollini, he has a reputation for very delicate playing and it works perfectly in this piece.  Now you ask - why is this piece nicknamed the 'Black Key' Étude?  As you might guess, it has to do with most of the notes being played on the black keys of the piano.  In fact, every single note on the right hand except for one is on a black key (and I sometimes wonder why Chopin decided to add that single white key).  I think this is the reason the étude is rather easy despite its high speed.  The black keys are raised up and have nice gaps between them.  This means you never accidentally hit the wrong note.  Additionally, you don't need to move your hand into the awkward configurations that's sometimes found in the other études (for example, Op. 10, No. 2).  Actually, I don't think you need to ever cross your fingers under each other on the right hand.  Anyway, this means the focus can be on velocity, which is exactly what the piece exercises.

The white keys are made of lava!

*****

Also among Chopin's most famous études is the 'Revolutionary' Étude (Op. 10, No. 12).  What a perfect nickname (again, one not ascribed by Chopin himself).  This piece is incredibly difficult to play nicely, and I myself am guilty of using too much pedal to make the piece easier but much worse-sounding.

'Revolutionary' Étude, Op. 10, No. 12 (Pianist: Vladimir Ashkenazy)

The fast, sweeping runs are now in the left hand, with the right hand playing a very powerful melody.  This is another piece that has so many different interpretations.  I personally prefer the cleaner, more traditional ones, which barely use the pedal and don't overdo the rubato (which is changing the tempo to convey emotion).  Well, I do like rubato towards the end, but not throughout the whole piece.  Since the runs are in the left hand, the melody (on the right hand) is easier to follow, and so one can basically sing along.  This makes the piece more memorable - hence its popularity.

I bet this tune was on their iPods at the time

I should note, though, that singable melodies are not required of music - I believe music is a multilayered medium, and that in the case of Chopin's Études, the music is largely used to paint images and convey emotions.  There is much value to those tunes that you can hum while you're walking, but I'd easily prefer a piece of music you can lose yourself in.  Of course, this is just a personal opinion - and it's reflected in my preference of romantic-era music over classical-era music.

*****

Of the remaining eight études in the set, some other ones I really like are:

• Op. 10, No. 1 - a grand introduction with huge, sweeping arpeggios
• Op. 10, No. 2 - a melody that sounds like scurrying mice, played using only the last three fingers of the right hand
• Op. 10, No. 8 - a light, fast tune that evokes images of birds fluttering
• Op. 10, No. 9 - an articulated, longing melody over a flowing bass

While some of the études are better than others, I can wholeheartedly recommend every single one of Chopin's études (in this set, in Op. 25, and from the "Trois nouvelles études").  In addition, note that each étude is its own piece, but this set as well as the Op. 25 set sound especially great when all played in order, like a music album.  A particularly great transition is in between the delicate ending of Op. 10, No. 3 to the sudden power of Op. 10, No. 4.  The whole product is not as unified as a multi-movement piece like a symphony or a sonata, but it somehow sounds cohesive.

*****

Stay tuned for the Chopin Études, Op. 25 edition of Classical Corner, which will likely but not necessarily be the next entry in this series.