UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs. Palhares Predictions

So I went a measly 3-2 in my predictions for UFC 118 (well, 5-2 if you include both my correct picks for the Spike TV card, which weren't included in my write-up), though I ended up well in the money in my fantasy betting scheme.  The next big MMA event is UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs. Palhares, which will be shown free on Spike TV on Wednesday, 9/15 at 7 PM (central time).  This event will lead immediately into the premiere of The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs. Team Koscheck, which marks the twelfth season of the show and will feature lightweights.

As usual, the Fight Night features many lightweights who are just a notch below the UFC's upper echelon.  The division is extremely deep, and many of these fighters would be pushed down the card on a PPV event.  The match-ups are great, though, and all of the televised fights should be fun and exciting in some way.

*****

Lightweight Bout

Ross Pearson vs. Cole Miller

Fighter Profiles

Ross Pearson (11-3 MMA, 3-0 UFC, 4-1 last five) is best known as the winner of season 9 of The Ultimate Fighter, and over the last year he has been establishing himself as a potential top-tier lightweight.  Pearson has a stalking style that gives his opponent little space to maneuver.  He has great technical boxing, muay thai, and striking defense, and his knees from the thai plum are lethal.  However, the rest of his clinch game is unspectacular despite his background in judo, and his base is largely untested, as he has not yet faced any of the lightweight division's plethora of wrestlers.

Cole Miller (16-4 MMA, 5-2 UFC, 3-2 last five) is riding a five-fight streak where his three wins have all been by submission and his two losses have both been by knockout.  And that's pretty much the deal with Cole Miller, whose striking is unimpressive, but is complemented by an ability to pull off a submission out of nowhere.  Miller does not yet have a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but his grappling game is very effective in an MMA context, and his long, skinny limbs are dangerous when it comes into sinking in chokes.  Unfortunately, his wins as of late have come against fellow grapplers, while his track record against strikers is not so great.

Pre-fight Analysis

Pearson's style is Miller's kryptonite, and if Pearson plays it smart, he should be able to get the win by knockout with aggressive play or riding out a dominating decision.  Even in the clinch, Pearson's game works towards thai plum or judo takedowns as opposed to the standard wrestling double-leg takedown.  This style of clinch game should keep Pearson out of danger when it comes to falling into submissions while attempting a takedown.  Miller's game plan will have to involve getting the fight to the ground somehow, but he is not known for his takedowns, and Pearson's grappling experience should be enough to stifle that strategy.

Prediction: Pearson by TKO (strikes, Round 2)

Approximate Betting Odds: -280 (70%) Pearson, +210 (30%) Miller

Betting Recommendation: I don't think Miller's chances of pulling off a submission are good enough to give him a +210 line or anything close.  Moderate play on Pearson.

*****

Lightweight Bout

Jim Miller vs. Gleison Tibau

Fighter Profiles

Jim Miller (17-2 MMA, 6-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) has a very impressive résumé, with his only losses coming from lightweight champ Frankie Edgar and #1 contender Gray Maynard.  His credentials would have you think that he's just another one of those NCAA Division I wrestlers who picked up Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to get into MMA, but he's actually much more of an all-around fighter and his wrestling is actually perhaps even underutilized.  Miller's striking won't set off fireworks, but his deliberate style is very effective and packs some power.  If the fight does hit the ground, Miller will take control and look for submissions as opposed to riding it out like many wrestlers do.

Gleison Tibau (21-6 MMA, 7-4 UFC, 4-1 last five) is somewhat of a gatekeeper in the lightweight division, destroying lesser opponents like Caol Uno and Josh Neer while coming up short against the division's top tier fighters.  He is notorious for the tremendous weights at which he arrives on fight night, and yet his physical conditioning never seems to be affected by these cuts.  His size has pretty much been his biggest advantage, though this is not to take away from his great all-around game, which features heavy punches and huge takedowns.

Pre-fight Analysis

Miller and Tibau are fighters with styles that are largely similar in that they are all-around fighters as opposed to specialists in one area.  However, Miller is a more technical fighter while Tibau is all about power.  Miller will try to fight smart, and Tibau will try to make the fight anything but a smart one.  On the feet, Miller probably has the advantage overall, but is always in danger of getting hit by a huge punch from Tibau.  On the ground, whoever is on top will have the advantage, and in this case I believe Tibau is more likely to take down Miller than vice versa.  Miller is the odds-on favorite likely due to his more sexy record, but at this point to me it's a coin toss (though if they were to fight 100 times I believe one of them would probably win at least 65 of those).  It has the potential to be a very exciting fight, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the opposite was the case.  The one thing that makes me lean toward Tibau is Miller's previous victory against Mark Bocek (a fight many feel that Miller lost), where Miller was taken down several times and his weaknesses were exposed.  I'll look for Tibau to go for the takedowns and maintain pressure on his opponent to snag the decision.

Prediction: Tibau by decision

Approximate Betting Odds: -170 Miller (60%), +140 (40%) Tibau

Betting Recommendation: This is an extremely hard fight to predict, but I think at the very least the odds favor Miller much more than they should.  Small play on Tibau.

*****

Lightweight Bout

Efrain Escudero vs. Charles Oliveira

Fighter Profiles

Efrain Escudero (13-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) is the lightweight winner of Season 8 of The Ultimate Fighter and had an undefeated MMA record until a loss in early 2010 to rising star Evan Dunham.  Escudero is an all-around fighter who can play to his opponents' weaknesses, though in his loss against Dunham, he perhaps had too much confidence in his jiu-jitsu, which should have been a no-no against a grappling specialist.  Escudero has a good combination of speed and power on the feet, as well as a background in wrestling.

Charles Oliveira (13-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC, 5-0 last five) made a meteoric rise to UFC notoriety after pulling off a beautiful armbar in his previous fight against Darren Elkins immediately after being taken down.  With that being the only fight in a major MMA organization on Oliveira's résumé, it's tough to judge how strong the remainder of his MMA skill set is.  His speed and ground skills are already evident, but we await to see how good his striking and takedown abilities are at the UFC level.

Pre-fight Analysis

We all saw what happened when someone had the game plan of taking Oliveira to the ground.  Surely Escudero will be interested in keeping the fight on the feet, especially since Oliveira's previous win and Escudero's only loss have both been by armbar.  The quality of Oliveira's striking is yet to be seen, and if Oliveira ends up out-striking Escudero, he will likely use the strikes to set up a takedown and submission.  However, Escudero is no easy opponent on the feet, and I am not so inclined to think that the jiu-jitsu specialist from the minor leagues will be winning the striking battle.  Instead, I expect Oliveira to go for takedowns.  Again, we don't know how good the Brazilian is at getting the fight to the ground, and Escudero has certainly worked on his defensive wrestling in preparation for this match.  Escudero needs to fight carefully to avoid the risk of a takedown, so I don't think he will be landing strikes in volume.  However, his power should be enough to keep Oliveira off kilter for the whole fight and possibly even score a knockout.

Prediction: Escudero by decision

Approximate Betting Odds: -190 (62.5%) Escudero, +155 (37.5%) Oliveira

Betting Recommendation: This line is certainly affected by overreaction to recent performances by both fighters and sway the line towards Oliveira more than it probably should.  Oliveira's chances are not insignificant, though, and he may actually be as good as we think.  Small play on Escudero.

*****

Middleweight Bout

Nate Marquardt vs. Rousimar Palhares

Fighter Profiles

Nate Marquardt (29-9-2 MMA, 8-3 UFC, 3-2 last five) is only 31 years old but is one of the most experienced fighters in MMA after being King of Pancrase in the days of the UFC's infancy.  Throughout his career he has been among the top middleweights, and he was one fight away from a second shot at middleweight champion Anderson Silva before losing a decision to Chael Sonnen.  Marquardt's main background is in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but his striking is no joke, and he recently had a run of three straight knockout wins in the UFC, most famously making quick work of Demian Maia in just 21 seconds.

Rousimar Palhares (11-2 MMA, 4-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) is perhaps one of the most feared fighters in the middleweight division, and this is not so much because of his overall skill as much as his proficiency in the most dangerous legal move in jiu-jitsu - the heel hook.  An incredible six out of Palhares's eleven wins have come via heel hook.  The rest of his jiu-jitsu game is strong as well, and as opposed to positional grappling, Palhares will try to find the submission from any position.  Palhares is built like a tank, but this is also partly because he is rather short for the middleweight division.  He gives up reach against most of the division, and thus has an intrinsic disadvantage in the striking department.

Pre-fight Analysis

Obviously, Palhares is very dangerous if he gets a hold of a leg (or any limb for that matter).  However, Marquardt should have the grappling skills to avoid being caught in a submission.  If it's Marquardt dictating the fight - and I expect that to be the case - the fight should stay on the feet.  Even though Marquardt is not exactly the biggest middleweight, he will still have roughly a three-inch reach advantage over Palhares, and should use this effectively on the feet.  Marquardt will likely play it safe, staying out of grappling range.  I foresee him using his more effective striking and his reach advantage to pick Palhares apart on the feet.  Naturally, Palhares will try to close the distance to initiate a grappling game, but Marquardt's grappling should be good enough to defend takedown and submission attempts, and to push Palhares back into striking range.

Prediction: Marquardt by decision

Approximate Betting Odds: -240 (67%) Marquardt, +190 (33%) Palhares

Betting Recommendation: I'd like to say that the line is good for a small play on Marquardt, but I don't feel too good about it, so as a conservative (fantasy) bettor, I'm staying away.

*****

My Official Fantasy Bets (Main Card)


199 points on Ross Pearson at -280 to win 71 points
125 points on Gleison Tibau at +140 to win 175 points
76 points on Efrain Escudero at -190 to win 40 points

Max win: 286 points
Max loss: 400 points