TdF Commentary 7/25

Stage 20 Recap

Cavendish wins yet another bunch sprint, Petacchi wins green jersey

The 2010 Tour de France is now over.  After three weeks of excitement and - dare I say - memories, the peloton has finally reached Paris, with Mark Cavendish leading the group across the finish at the Champs-Élysées.  As usual, the stage began as a parade celebrating the end of a long journey, as well as the accomplishments of those like Alberto Contador, who earned his third yellow jersey, and riders such as Lance Armstrong, who after long careers will be retiring from professional cycling.

The official start of the stage was delayed for a while due to a publicity stunt from Lance Armstrong's Team RadioShack, which came out in entirely black jerseys with a big "28" on the back to represent the 28 million people in the world affected by cancer.  The race organizers would let the team wear the black jerseys during the neutral zone, but made them change back to their regular jerseys before the official start.  This incident would delay the official start for a while, and Armstrong would even stay behind to argue the officials' decision.  At the beginning, Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck launched an attack in jest, getting themselves some camera time before shaking hands and dropping back to the pack.  From then, as per tradition, the real race didn't start until the riders reached Paris, where an eight-lap criterium around the Champs-Élysées.

As expected, attacks were launched, but the peloton never gave them much room - as is typically the case on the Tour's final stages.  The breakaway was large enough to sustain enough of a lead that the sprinters weren't able to bridge the gap to contest the two intermediate sprints.  This was ideal for Alessandro Petacchi, who would look favorably on any opportunity to eliminate point opportunities for rivals as he defended his lead in the green jersey race.  Meanwhile, it's no secret that Thor Hushovd would probably need these intermediate sprints to have a shot at green, while Mark Cavendish was likely to focus his efforts on the stage win rather than racking up points to win the jersey.

The breakaway was actually looking to be dangerous, holding its lead until the final lap.  But not even an eleven-man breakaway could hold off the peloton, which was speeding up to prepare for a bunch sprint.  The usual suspects were at the front of the peloton in the final straightaway, with Thor Hushovd this time being the one to instigate the sprint.  His move, however, proved to be too little and too early, as Alessandro Petacchi and Mark Cavendish were able to zip by right away, and other sprinters were able to overtake Hushovd as he lost steam.  Just as has been the case with the past several bunch sprints, Cavendish was able to win by multiple bike lengths even without too much help from his team.  This victory is Cav's 5th this Tour and 15th overall in just three years on Tour.  After finishing 2nd place in the green jersey competition (and this year not even trying to win it after his Stage 1 crash), I think next year it's time for him to start focusing on winning the jersey in addition to racking up stage wins.  Petacchi was able to place in second, which was enough to defend the lead he initially built from his Stage 1 victory, and win the green jersey.  Despite dominating the sprint world in years past, this is Petacchi's first green jersey, which comes at the age of 36.  This victory makes him one of the select few to win the points classification in all three Grand Tours.

Sylvain Chavanel has won The Tour's overall 'super combative' prize - a much deserved honor after going solo to win two stages, as well as including himself in many escapes.  Chavanel also won the prize two years ago, and such aggressiveness is what keeps many of the weaker teams on Tour relevant - like his Quick Step team that is missing its leader in sprinter Tom Boonen.  The honor of the 'Lanterne rouge' for the rider who places last (and therefore spends the most time suffering on the saddle) goes to Adriano Malori of Lampre-Farnese, who rode the course in 96h25'51", which is 4h27'03" slower than Contador.  Malori had been in second to last coming out of the Pyrenees, but time trial specialist Bert Grabsch, who was then in last place, rode a brilliant time trial, giving away the infamous honor.

I must say, this has probably been the single most exciting Tour I've followed.  There was no shortage of drama, and the big three jersey races were all close until the end.  This comes after an era dominated by one rider (Lance Armstrong), followed by several years very heavily marred by doping (or at least the Tour catching and expelling dopers).  This year's edition did not see anyone expelled for doping (other than one rider who did not start the race after taking a medication that, unbeknownst to him, contained a banned substance).  Of course, the lack of doping expulsions does not at all mean that there are no dopers on Tour, but for once it's nice to see a race where stage winners and yellow jersey wearers aren't getting kicked out every other day.  Sometime in the next few days, I'll be wrapping up the Tour with some commentary on this year's race as a whole, as well as some insights into next year's race.  In the meantime, here are the results from today, as well as a run-through of all the Tour's winners.

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	35 pts
2	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	30 pts
3	Julian Dean	Garmin-Transitions	26 pts
4	Jürgen Roelandts	Omega Pharma-Lotto	24 pts
5	Oscar Freire	Rabobank	22 pts
6	Gerald Ciolek	Team Milram	20 pts
7	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	19 pts
8	Matti Breschel	Team Saxo Bank	18 pts
9	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	17 pts
10	Daniel Oss	Liquigas-Doimo	16 pts

*****

Final Points Standings

1	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	243 pts
3	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	232 pts
2	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	222 pts
4	José Joaquin Rojas	Caisse D'Epargne	179 pts
5	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	179 pts
6	Edvald Boasson Hagen	Team Sky	161 pts
7	Sébastien Turgot	BBox Bouygues-Telecom	135 pts
8	Gerald Ciolek	Team Milram	126 pts
9	Jürgen Roelandts	Omega Pharma-Lotto	124 pts
10	Lloyd Mondory	AG2R La Mondiale	119 pts

*****

Winners

Yellow Jersey - Alberto Contador

2nd Place - Andy Schleck (L), 3rd Place - Denis Menchov (R)

Green Jersey - Alessandro Petacchi

Polka-dot Jersey - Anthony Charteau

White Jersey - Andy Schleck

Team Classification - Team RadioShack

TdF Commentary 7/24

Stage 19 Recap

Cancellara wins time trial, Contador has unexpectedly close battle with Schleck but holds on for yellow, Menchov overtakes Sanchez for podium spot

The race for the yellow jersey is now unofficially over, as Alberto Contador was able to maintain his lead over Andy Schleck in the final time trial.  Unsurprisingly, the time trial was won by specialist Fabian Cancellara, who was also the winner of the prologue time trial.  Cancellara's efforts were aided by heavy crosswinds later in the day that slowed down riders' times over the 52 km course by several minutes.  Fortunately, the weather wouldn't affect the GC race because the riders start the course in reverse order of standings, leaving all the GC contenders riding at the end of the day.  Cancellara set a time of 1h00'56", with an average speed of 51.2 kmh (31.8 mph).

While Andy Schleck surprised many be riding the time trial of his life, even having a lead over Alberto Contador at the first time check, Contador finally pulled through and finished 31" ahead of Schleck. Contador's time trial was slower than expected, especially after he won a time trial in last year's Tour, but keep in mind that last year's course had a relatively big climb, while this year's course was very flat.  The crosswinds didn't help either, and Contador just didn't have the size to get himself in the top ranks.  Because tomorrow's stage is by tradition non-competitive as far as GC goes, Contador will end the Tour with a 39" lead over Schleck - one of the smallest leads in Tour history.  Interestingly, this is also the same amount of time Contador had gained over Schleck in his attack in Stage 15.  Without this attack, all other things equal (of course a fallacious assumption), this Tour could have come down to fractions of a second!  Andy Schleck was very impressive with his time trial, which is known to be his weakness.  Schleck is just 25 years old and will continue to develop, especially in the time trial discipline.  By next year, we may expect him to have a much improved aero-position and be able to contend with Contador in both the mountains and the time trials.  Contador is fairly young as well, and the two of them should have some great battles in years to come.  As a consolation, Schleck will receive the white jersey for the third time - a feat achieved before only by Jan Ullrich.

Denis Menchov had by far the best ride out of the top GC contenders.  He finished in 11th, but without any crosswinds, he probably would have been able to place in third.  Menchov's time was far more than enough to get him onto the Tour podium for the first time in his career (In 2008, Menchov finished 4th, and 3rd place finisher Bernard Kohl would eventually get his placing revoked for a doping offense.  However, Menchov has not retroactively been awarded 3rd, nor did he get the honor of standing on the podium in Paris.).  Along with his win in the 2009 Giro d'Italia and two wins in the 2005 and 2007 Vuelta a España, Menchov has now placed on the podium in all three Grand Tours, putting him in the upper echelon of cyclists.  Samuel Sanchez, meanwhile, didn't ride a horrible time trial, but now knows that he will need to do better on the mountains to place well in future Tours.

The GC rider with the worst time trial was Joaquin Rodriguez, who finished quite close to last place.  Rodriguez had been very impressive this Tour - until today.  And at the age of 31, I don't see him improving in the discipline to compete in future Grand Tours, especially those with two time trials instead of one.  On the other hand, some young riders in Roman Kreuziger and Robert Gesink had sub-par performances, but are only 24 years old and are sure to improve over the next several years.  Within a few years, both riders could be ready to be designated team leaders with podium potential.

Despite the late crosswinds slowing down the time trials of Levi Leipheimer and Andreas Klöden, both of whom are usually among the top 20 finishers, Team RadioShack still managed to beat Caisse D'Epargne today (which is not considered a good time-trialling team) by 46", to effectively win the team classification by a margin of 9'15".  While RadioShack's GC goals were unsuccessful this year, at least they managed to win the team classification.  One has to wonder about their future though, with many of their riders starting to get old.  It's certainly possible that next year, their GC rider could be Jani Brajkovic.

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Fabian Cancellara	Team Saxo Bank	1h00'56"
2	Tony Martin	Team HTC-Columbia	+ 00'17"
3	Bert Grabsch	Team HTC-Columbia	+ 01'48"
11	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 03'51"
35	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 05'43"
40	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 05'51"
41	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 05'59"
44	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 06'14"
52	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 06'40"
53	Nicolas Roche	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 06'42"
69	Chris Horner	Team RadioShack	+ 07'08"
71	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 07'10"
73	Ruben Plaza	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 07'11"
79	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 07'18"
82	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 07'25"
87	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 07'35"
109	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 08'33"
154	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 10'17"

*****

Notable GC Standings

1	Alberto Contador	Astana	89h16'27"
2	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 00'39"
3	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 02'01"
4	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 03'40"
5	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 06'54"
6	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 09'31"
7	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 10'15"
8	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 11'37"
9	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 11'54"
10	Chris Horner	Team RadioShack	+ 12'02"
11	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 14'21"
12	Ruben Plaza	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 14'29"
13	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 14'40"
14	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 16'36"
15	Nicolas Roche	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 16'59"

*****

Stage 20 Preview

After a long and particularly eventful Tour, we finally reach the last stage, which finishes up with the group taking eight laps around the famous Champs-Élysées.  By tradition, the stage is non-competitive except among the sprinters and non-GC riders trying to steal a stage win.  In particular, no racing whatsoever is done before the bunch reaches Paris, and anyone who dares attack would undoubtedly be crucified by the peloton and may as well quit their career in pro cycling.  The beginning of the stage is used for the jersey winners (except the green jersey, which is still up for grabs) to drink some champagne in celebration and have some photo ops.  All the other riders, meanwhile, will just chat and reflect on the past three weeks of racing.

Once the race reaches the Champs-Élysées and the massive Parisian crowd that is there to watch, that's where the racing begins.  The peloton will go at a very fast pace, and multiple riders will attack, hoping for a stage win in the best case scenario, or at the very least some attention from the crowd in the scenario that occurs 99% of the time.  While there have been a few exceptions, like the always unpredictable Alexandre Vinokourov escaping to win the stage in 2005, just like any other very flat stage, it's almost always a day for the sprinters.

The battle for green is heavily in favor of Alessandro Petacchi, and you can be sure that he, Thor Hushovd, and Mark Cavendish will be battling it out on the intermediate sprints in addition to the presumed bunch sprint at the finish.  Mark Cavendish won the stage (as well as every single other bunch sprint) last year, and while he is now missing some of his valuable teammates, he has still shown that he can excel by riding the wheels of other teams.  I expect no different of an outcome tomorrow, with Cavendish claiming the glory of the stage win, but Alessandro Petacchi hanging on to win the green jersey that nobody at first really even expected him to be in the running for.

*****

For full Stage 19 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 20, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website.  Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening.  Live coverage on Versus begins at x:x0 AM (ET).

TdF Commentary 7/23

Stage 18 Recap

Surprise..... Cavendish wins bunch sprint for fourth stage win, Petacchi is back in green

Stage 18 was rather uneventful so I'll keep it short today, but it's okay because after four really difficult stages, the riders really needed a stage that was as flat as Kansas.  Today's breakaway contained Daniel Oss (Liquigas), Jérôme Pineau (Quick Step), Benoit Vaugrenard (FDJ), and Matti Breschel (Team Saxo Bank).  Nothing new today as it was Mark Cavendish's Team HTC-Columbia and Alessanddro Petacchi's Lampre-Farnese who led the chase, as was expected.  Leading to the finish line, this time it was Edvald Boasson Hagen's Team Sky setting up their sprint train at the front.  A group of riders from Thor Hushovd's Cervélo TestTeam also were able to cluster near the front, and even Oscar Freire was in the mix, after basically having disappeared from the sprint scene.

It was Alessandro Petacchi who instigated the final sprint, bursting ahead from a few places back.  Mark Cavendish was able to get onto Petacchi's slipstream, pass him, and win by about three bike lengths.  Meanwhile, Hushovd didn't seem like he had any acceleration in him, even though he was expected to be in the best shape of all the sprinters coming out of the mountains.  The top of the ranks was a list of the usual suspects: Cavendish, Julian Dean, Robbie McEwen, and Edvald Boasson Hagen, while Hushovd - who was in a prime position leading to the final straightaway - ended up in 14th to claim a measly 12 points to Petacchi's 26.

This stage win gives Alessandro Petacchi back the green jersey, as well as a 10 point lead over Thor Hushovd and a 16 point lead over Mark Cavendish.  Petacchi should now easily be able to take the green jersey all the way.  Only one bunch sprint remans (on the final stage), and we can assume that Cavendish will win it to claim 35 points.  Petacchi would need at least 20 points (Cavendish wins the jersey in case of a tie because of more stage wins), and to do so he will need to place in 6th on the Champs-Élysées.  If Petacchi can do that - and there's no reason to think he can't - Hushovd would need a 2nd place finish to win green - which is unlikely given his consistently poor performance on the bunch sprints.  In other words, only a giant choke would stop Petacchi from winning the green jersey, and even if that happened, it would likely be Cavendish and not Hushovd winning the prize.

Now, two unfortunate events on Tour that we were hoping wouldn't have huge repercussions on the race have actually ended up becoming an issue (as least as far as drama goes).  The first is the peloton's decision to slow down in Stage 2 after many riders had fallen.  This would have been a great opportunity for Thor Hushovd to get 25 points for the stage win while his rivals were stuck behind by having to climb so close to the end of the stage.  Those 25 points would have put him in a 15 point lead at the moment, which he would have had a great chance of holding in Paris.  The second incident is the much-discussed Alberto Contador attack on Andy Schleck in Stage 15.  Contador gained 39" on Schleck that day, and things would have been interesting in the time trial if it was Schleck with a 31" lead instead of Contador with an 8" lead.  Of course, these unfortunate events did happen, and we can only speculate how things might have been had they not happened.  For example, Hushovd might not have tried to go on so many intermediate sprints, and Contador would definitely have attacked more on the Col de Tourmalet.

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	35 pts
2	Julian Dean	Garmin-Transitions	30 pts
3	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	26 pts
4	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	24 pts
5	Oscar Freire	Rabobank	22 pts
6	Edvald Boasson Hagen	Team Sky	20 pts
8	José Joaquin Rojas	Caisse D'Epargne	18 pts
14	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	12 pts

*****

Notable Points Standings

1	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	213 pts
2	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	203 pts
3	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	197 pts
4	José Joaquin Rojas	Caisse D'Epargne	167 pts
5	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	162 pts

*****

Stage 19 Preview

The last competitive stage for the GC riders this year is a time trial, unlike last year where the final competitive stage was a mountaintop finish.  The course is extremely flat, and at 52 km in length favors the pure time-triallists.  Alberto Contador surprised many last year by winning the Stage 18 time trial in Annecy.  However, that time trial was only 40.5 km and included a category-3 climb that made the course a little friendlier to GC riders.  This year, there will be none of those benefits, and it will all come down to pure power.  If Fabian Cancellara is on top of his game tomorrow, he should be able to win the stage convincingly.  What will be more interesting, though, is where the GC riders end up relative to each other.

For a large part, the GC has already been sorted out, but there will definitely some interesting battles going on tomorrow.  The most obvious is the battle for the yellow jersey between Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck.  In theory, Contador should get at least 1'30" on Schleck and extend his lead in the GC - but, you can never be sure what will happen.  By far the most interesting battle is for the third spot on the podium, which has been narrowed down to just two riders: Samuel Sanchez and Denis Menchov.  Sanchez is 21" seconds ahead of Menchov, but Menchov is historically the stronger time trial rider and can easily erase the deficit with a solid ride.  Sanchez, however, will have the luxury of starting after his rival.  This is an advantage for Sanchez because he will know Menchov's intermediate times beforehand (they will begin their rides three minutes apart) and can adjust his own pace accordingly.

The next biggest time gap between two riders in the top ten is 22", between 6th place Robert Gesink and 7th place Joaquin Rodriguez, who have both exceeded expectations this Tour.  Neither is a particularly great time trial rider, so it will come down to who is in better shape tomorrow.  Finally, we have the 25" gap between 9th place Roman Kreuziger and 10th place Chris Horner.  Kreuziger is the stronger rider and should end up in 9th place, but Horner has been surprising with his performance this Tour and can continue to surprise to claim the 9th spot.

*****

For full Stage 18 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 19, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website.  Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening.  Live coverage on Versus begins at 8:30 AM (ET).

TdF Commentary 7/22

Stage 17 Recap

Schleck wins stage but Contador finishes right behind to keep yellow, Sanchez crashes hard but gains time on Menchov, Charteau is the winner of the polka-dot jersey

The only thing more daunting than climbing the Col de Tourmalet is climbing the Col de Tourmalet in the rain and fog.  After a Tour de France filled with all kinds of bad luck, the riders had to race to most important GC stage of the race on slick roads with low visibility.  As expected, the peloton rode easy until the Col de Tourmalet, and only then did the GC riders break into all out battle.  A seven-man breakaway formed, none of whom were contenders for the polka-dot jersey.  The peloton was content with the composition of the breakaway and quickly slowed down for a bathroom break in order to extend the lead.

Things were looking very scary for Samuel Sanchez, who crashed hard early in the stage and was on the ground for over a minute.  Thankfully, he had landed on his sternum (and not his collarbone), and he was just simply out of breath.  He was paced back with the help of his teammates to the peloton, which had slowed down as a courtesy to the GC contender.  This was far from the ideal situation for the winner of the Astana-less 2008 Tour de France Carlos Sastre, who had been looking for a stage win the mountains for a while.  Sastre's plan was to attack on the first category-1 climb of the day and ideally use his superior climbing to catch the breakaway on his own.  However, because the peloton had slowed down to wait for Sanchez, the gap between the peloton and the leaders would have been too big for a successful counterattack.  The upset Sastre refused to wait with the peloton and launched his attack 20 km before the Col de Marie-Blanque.  Sastre was never able to catch the leaders, largely because he needed to expend a lot of energy to maintain a solo attack on the flats, and eventually he was caught and dropped by the peloton at the beginning of the final climb, as the peloton began to accelerate and chase down the tiring leaders.

With a seven-man breakaway plus the Carlos Sastre counterattack all ahead of the peloton for most of the stage, the situation was perfect for Anthony Charteau, who was looking merely to defend a close lead over Christophe Moreau in the polka-dot jersey race.  As points are awarded only to the first eight riders on the category-1 climbs, Charteau didn't have to worry at all about losing points on those climbs.  Additionally, because the stage ended with a summit finish, those points typically go to GC riders, so Charteau didn't have to worry too much about the final climb either.  In the end, Charteau and Moreau both ended the day without any mountain points, and since this was the final stage with any mountain points, all Anthony Charteau needs to do to wear the polka-dot jersey in Paris is to complete the race - a relatively easy task with just two flat stages and a time trial remaining.

A bizarre incident occurred in the peloton on the second to last climb of the day.  As the peloton was ascending the Col du Soulor, a flock of sheep ran in front of the group, halting them to a standstill for a few seconds.  Thankfully the peloton was climbing instead of descending or riding the flats, as they were easily able to react and stop without any accidents.  Especially during a time where the peloton was riding fast to stretch out the group leading into the Tourmalet, a high-speed accident at the front could have taken down a quarter of the group (as was pretty much the case in Stage 1) - and the odd thing is that in these incidents involving bikers hitting animals, the riders always get hurt and their bikes totaled, while the animals always seem to make it out completely unharmed.

On the final ascent of the Tour, Team Saxo Bank stayed at the front of the peloton and rode a fast tempo to reduce the number of riders at the front of the group.  About halfway up is where the excitement began.  As expected, the main aggressor was Andy Schleck, who launched a powerful attack that only Alberto Contador could match.  The rest of the contenders let the two of them go and fight their own battle, while they stayed behind and rode their own pace.  Contador was able to ride Schleck's wheel seemingly with ease, even with Schleck riding with a very fast pace.  At some points, the pair had gained nearly two minutes on the other GC contenders, but their lead diminished as they played some cat and mouse tactics close to the finish.  Schleck's strategy was to try to shake off Contador by riding a fast tempo instead of the usual strategy of launching attacks.  This strategy may have perhaps been used because Contador was always riding behind Schleck and thus could see his every move and react quickly.  Schleck's tempo was so fast that he likely did not have enough energy for a second full acceleration.

Contador, meanwhile, tried his luck at an attack, even though he made it clear that his goal for the day was just to finish with Schleck.  For a while it looked like Contador's attack would be successful, but Schleck mustered up the energy to catch his rival.  This is a testament to Andy Schleck's climbing skills, as in years past, when Contador launched his attack, it was all over.  These two young riders will have some great battles in the mountains for many years to come.  In the end, it became clear that the two riders would finish together and that Schleck would not be able to get the nine seconds he needed to reclaim the yellow jersey and have the advantage of starting last in the time trial.  Alberto Contador looked primed to sprint for the stage win, but in a very classy move did not contest the sprint, giving the victory to Schleck.  This was a great gesture on Contador's part, and it alleviates much of the criticism he's gotten for the past few days.  Schleck was riding in front and setting the pace for the entirety of his duel with Contador, and for Contador - who already has a reputation for being a wheelsucker - to steal the stage win would have been considered very classless.  The two riders patted each other on the back upon crossing the finish line and Schleck raised his hand halfheartedly from the bittersweetness of winning the stage but not gaining time on his rival.  At this point it seems that unless anything weird happens on Saturday's time trial, Alberto Contador is a lock for the yellow jersey and Andy Schleck is a lock for 2nd.

The rest of the GC riders did not see much action for most of the climb.  A few contenders like Levi Leipheimer and Alexandre Vinokourov were dropped from the group even without anyone having made attacks.  In the final few kilometers - the steepest ones - of the stage, the aggressive action began, with Joaquin Rodriguez bursting forward to eventually claim third.  The group shattered to pieces, and Ryder Hesjedal was able to get fourth in very impressive fashion, while Samuel Sanchez actually managed to gain eight seconds on his podium rival Denis Menchov.  One has to wonder if Sanchez may have been able to get more of a lead had he not hit the deck early in the stage.  The battle between Menchov and Sanchez will be the most intriguing in Saturday's time trial.  Menchov currently stands 21" behind Sanchez and has a great chance of gaining at least that much in the time trial.  However, Sanchez will have the advantage of starting after Menchov and being able to keep track of his intermediate times.

In other GC standings news, somehow Chris Horner is now the top-ranked Team RadioShack rider, bursting into the top ten after finishing in the GC rider minus Schleck/Contador group.  In addition to being one of the sport's greatest domestiques as well has having one of cycling's most contagiously positive attitudes, the American has throughout the years been an excellent model of consistency, and it's shown again this year.  Although he doesn't have the strength of the other top riders, he hardly ever has a bad day.  His teammates Lance Armstrong, Levi Leipheimer, Andreas Klöden, and Jani Brajkovic are all considered stronger riders, but they have all had bad days at some point or another on the Tour.  Horner has a great chance of maintaining his spot in the top ten, with a good 2'09" separating him from the 11th ranked rider.

Chris Horner, we salute you!

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	5h03'29"
2	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 00'00"
3	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 01'18"
4	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 01'27"
5	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 01'32"
6	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 01'40"
7	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 01'40"
8	Chris Horner	Team RadioShack	+ 01'45"
9	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 01'48"
10	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 02'14"
11	Damiano Cunego	Lampre-Farnese	+ 03'00"
12	Nicolas Roche	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 03'26"
13	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 03'30"
14	John Gadret	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 03'35"
15	Kanstantsin Sivtsov	Team HTC-Columbia	+ 03'44"
17	Lance Armstrong	Team RadioShack	+ 04'12"
20	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 04'27"
23	Ruben Plaza	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 04'59"
43	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 08'59"
49	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 10'45"
72	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 16'48"

*****

Notable GC Standings

1	Alberto Contador	Astana	83h32'39"
2	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 00'08"
3	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 03'32"
4	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 03'53"
5	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 05'27"
6	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 06'41"
7	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 07'03"
8	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 09'18"
9	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 10'12"
10	Chris Horner	Team RadioShack	+ 10'37"
11	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 12'46"
12	Ruben Plaza	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 13'01"
13	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 14'24"
14	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 14'44"
15	Nicolas Roche	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 16'00"
16	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 17'57"
21	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 25'50"

*****

Final Mountains Standings

1	Anthony Charteau	BBox Bouygues Telecom	143 pts
2	Christophe Moreau	Caisse D'Epargne	128 pts
3	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	116 pts
4	Alberto Contador	Astana	112 pts
5	Damiano Cunego	Lampre-Farnese	99 pts
6	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	96 pts
7	Sandy Casar	FDJ	93 pts
8	Jérôme Pineau	Quick Step	92 pts
9	Thomas Voeckler	BBox Bouygues Telecom	82 pts
10	Pierrick Fedrigo	BBox Bouygues Telecom	72 pts

*****

Stage 18 Preview

The Tour is done with the mountains, and before the time trial that will ultimately set the GC standings in stone, we'll get a stage for the sprinters.  A breakaway finish will be essentially impossible tomorrow (unless the wind is very unruly), and we can expect a bunch sprint.  Meanwhile the GC riders will use the stage to get themselves rested but prepared for the critical time trial on Saturday.  Not much more to say here, so I'll go ahead with my prediction and will go with Alessandro Petacchi to upset Mark Cavendish for the stage win and reclaim the green jersey.

*****

For full Stage 17 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 18, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website.  Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening.  Live coverage on Versus begins at 8:30 AM (ET).

TdF Commentary 7/21

Stage 17 Preview

Just looking at the profile of this stage is intimidating.  This stage will be the biggest GC battleground of the whole Tour, and it's easy to see why.  The final climb up the Col du Tourmalet is steep - which is perfect for attacking - and long - which is perfect for translating those attacks into huge time gaps.  Whereas we've only seen gaps of a minute or less among any pair of GC riders on the same "level" (i.e. going for yellow, going for podium, going for top give, going for top ten), we can expect to see some gaps perhaps reaching two minutes or more opening up from a successful attack up the final climb.

The Col du Tourmalet is the most frequently used pass on Tour and is probably the most famous Pyrenean climb in the history of the Tour de France.  In terms of legendary status, it is probably only surpassed by the Alpe d'Huez.  Thus, it's only appropriate that on the celebration of the races 100th year in the Pyrenees, that the race passes through the Tourmalet twice and ends its final mountain stage on its peak, marking the 50th time the riders have made the ascent on cycling's most prestigious race.

The ascent is a grueling 18.6 km at 7.5%, which is made even more difficult by the fact that the climb steepens instead of flattening out towards the top.  These types of finishes tend to be won by one of the top GC contenders, who will discharge just about all their energy.  The riders will have a very flat stage following this before going into the decisive time trial, but riding at 100% on this climb is crucial, and the race could be decided today.  If Alberto Contador gains time, matches, or even loses just a little bit of time on Andy Schleck, the Tour will pretty much be decided in Contador's favor.  However, if Schleck can get at least 100 seconds on Contador, he may experience the "yellow jersey effect," in which he rides the time trial of his life to hang onto the overall prize.  The battle for the podium will be just as exciting as the battle between Contador and Schleck, and if the two leaders attack early on the climb, the rest of the pack may just let them go at it alone and focus on the battle amongst themselves.

Expect Anthony Charteau and Christophe Moreau to make early attacks and try to claim points on the first three climbs.  Any other rider looking to win the polka-dot jersey will need lots of points from the Col de Tourmalet.  However, expect the GC contenders to be at the front of the race by the first half of the final climb.  The lead group should be diminished to only the strongest riders, one of whom will likely get the stage win.  Such was not the case in last year's equivalent stage, ending atop the more difficult Mont Ventoux, but by then the race had essentially been decided, with Alberto Contador having a full 4'11" advantage over Andy Schleck.  This year, we still have a time trial after the mountains, so the GC contenders - especially the relatively weak time triallists like Schleck - can't afford to ride passively.  They will need to gain every second they can, and their fast pace will make a stage win by anyone other than the strongest of riders extremely difficult.

Contador and Schleck are naturally the two favorites to win the stage, and I'll have to root for the underdog, Andy Schleck, to gain a good amount of time on Contador.  Before his chain-slipping incident in Stage 15, Schleck actually looked to be nearly unstoppable, with Contador being caught by Menchov and Sanchez while on the attack.  But I'll admit that this prediction is mostly due to being sour from Contador's attack on Stage 15.  As far as the battle for third, I'll go with Denis Menchov getting enough time on Samuel Sanchez to be in a comfortable position leading to the Stage 19 time trial - as on paper, Menchov is the superior time trial rider.  And in the King of the Mountains competition, it seems like more people seem to favor Christophe Moreau to win the polka-dot jersey, even though he is 15 points behind Anthony Charteau.  Moreau is the better climber on any given day, but Charteau has built up his lead by making moves on many stages.  My gut feeling is that Charteau will hold out for the win, but I'll be rooting for Moreau - who is the oldest rider on the Tour (Jens Voigt is second oldest and Lance Armstrong is third).  Prepare for an exciting finish to the mountains of this year's Tour de France!

*****

For more complete info on Stage 17 and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website.  Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening.  Live coverage on Versus begins at 6:30 AM (ET).

TdF Commentary 7/20

Stage 16 Recap

Fedrigo give France third consecutive stage win, Armstrong finishes in breakaway but too slow in sprint, Hushovd takes back green jersey

As expected, today's stage ended with a breakaway finish, with Pierrick Fedrigo beating the day's eight other escapees to the line in the final sprint.  Today's stage was very dynamic because of its rather odd layout, having two category-1 climbs, then two HC climbs, followed by a long flat segment.  The stage literally began on a category-1 climb, and multiple attacks and counterattacks resulted in the formation of  a lead group that included polka-dot jersey holder Anthony Charteau, Lance Armstrong, Stage 9 winner Sandy Casar, and some marginal GC contenders in Roman Kreuziger, Ryder Hesjedal, Alexandre Vinokourov, Carlos Sastre, and Bradley Wiggins.  It has already been speculated for a while that Armstrong would go for today's stage win, and as Team RadioShack got a more comfortable lead in the team classification, the team's directeur sportif Johan Bruyneel confirmed the plan.  Armstrong is very far out of GC contention, and this was really the last stage before he retires from the Tour where he could realistically compete for the stage win.

Anthony Charteau likely knew that he would not be competitive in the later HC climbs of the stage, so the BBox Bouygues Telecom team used a very well-intentioned but not entirely successful strategy: Charteau contested the two early climbs of the day, receiving 28 out of a possible 30 points.  Afterwards,  as the breakaway lost steam and the peloton closed, BBox sent Pierrick Fedrigo in a counterattack, with the intention of winning the HC climbs, thus preventing Charteau's rivals from getting maximum points.  Unfortunately, also joining the lead group on the counterattack were some strong KotM contenders in Damiano Cunego and Christophe Moreau, who both sacrificed the opportunity to get on the initial breakaway in favor of saving up for the more valuable climbs and possibly the stage win.  Cunego and Moreau would indeed make it to the finish with the lead group of nine, which crossed the finish line 6'45" ahead of the peloton.  Fedrigo was unable to stop Christophe Moreau from scoring 60 out of 60 points on the two HC climbs, and Moreau now has himself in a great position leading into the final mountain stage, as Charteau wasn't able to make it to the HC climbs fast enough to claim points.  However, Fedrigo got plenty of consolation in being the fastest on the final sprint for the stage win , giving BBox their second consecutive stage win and France their third consecutive, as well as their sixth overall.

Some aggression from Sandy Casar and Lance Armstrong picked up the breakaway's pace, and all the GC riders in the pack dropped back to the peloton - though it's no secret that they should be saving their energy for Stage 17 anyway.  Eventually, the lead group consisted just of Armstrong, Casar, Horner, Fedrigo, Moreau, Cunego, Ruben Plaza, Carlos Barredo, and Jurgen Van De Walle.  In particularly, Barredo attacked repeatedly to try to hold out solo for the victory.  After a few unsuccessful attacks, the group finally let him go with 45 km remaining, in essence agreeing to a sprint finish.  The chasers then let Barredo tire himself out and picked up the pace to catch him at the last moment, just as the sprinters teams do on the flat stages.  Eventually Barredo was caught with about 1 km left, and he finished behind the rest of the bunch, who sprinted for the stage win.  Lance Armstrong was hoping to be in a better position in the final sprint with the help of teammate Chris Horner, but in the end there were just too many other strong riders, and Armstrong finished his sprint halfheartedly to place in sixth.

The peloton's pace was very much unlike many of the previous stages.  No teams were trying to really break the peloton into pieces, and in the end almost all of the top GC riders finished in the peloton without any time gaps.  The exception was Ivan Basso, who was suffering from a case of bronchitis and was dropped very early.  Basso eventually finished in the grupetto, nearly 35 minutes behind the stage leaders, and drops all the way down to 27th in the GC, below the likes of Lance Armstrong and Cadel Evans.  Because the peloton remained intact, the only movements in the top 15 of the GC - other than Basso's disappearance - are the jumps of Ruben Plaza and Chris Horner, who now sit in 12th and 14th after finishing in the breakaway.  However, both riders are domestiques who will be working for their team leaders in Stage 17 and will likely lose enough time in the end to drop back down in the rankings.

Perhaps the surprise of the day was Thor Hushovd actually getting enough sprint points at the stage finish to reclaim green.  Unsurprisingly, most of the sprinters were dropped easily, but because the peloton wasn't pushing the pace, Hushovd, along with some fellow sprinters in Jose Joaquin Rojas and Gerald Ciolek were able to finish with the peloton.  Hushovd won the sprint in the peloton, ending the stage in 10th place to get 6 points, which gives him back the green jersey.  The Norwegian now has a four point lead over Alessandro Petacchi, and he will need to have great performances in the bunch sprints of Stages 18 and 20 to hang onto the prize.

This is a really special Tour at this point, because so many things are still up in the air.  At this point in many other Tours, some riders have such great leads in their areas that the final stages become trivial.  However, right now we have a great battle going on for yellow between Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck.  After the controversial events of yesterday, Contador has publicly apologized to Schleck, and the two are back on non-hostile terms.  In addition, the battle for third is equally as exciting, with Samuel Sanchez and Denis Menchov neck and neck, with Jurgen Van Der Broeck hiding in the shadows.  The battle for GC placing in the top ten is not overall as prestigious and won't see as much action, as the most exciting riders will be those competing for the higher honors.  Still, it will be interesting to see where everyone ends up after the Col de Tourmalet, and then looking ahead, after the Stage 19 time trial.

The green jersey race is still a close contest, especially with Thor Hushovd reclaiming green today.  Alessandro Petacchi has consistently been better than Hushovd on the bunch sprints this year, but perhaps Hushovd will be able to hang on for the win.  To win the jersey, Hushovd will need to beat Petacchi in at least one of the two remaining sprints.  The King of the Mountains competition will come to a close on Thursday, as there are no remaining climbs in Stages 18, 19, and 20.  However, this year the competition will come down to the very last possible stage (a relative rarity in the polka-dot jersey race), as Anthony Charteau will look to hold off Christophe Moreau, while a few other riders like Damiano Cunego can still be in contention with a spectacular performance in Stage 17 (and a little bit of luck).

Tomorrow is the Tour's second rest day, and it comes right before the monster stage of the Tour for the GC riders.  This will be a blessing for those who are good at using rest days to recuperate but maintain form, but it could potentially be horrible for those who find themselves out of shape after a day of not racing.  It sounds strange that certain riders would absolutely hate having a day of rest, but it's true.  Stay tuned for a preview of what promises to be an epic Stage 17 for the GC and KotM riders!

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Pierrick Fedrigo	BBox Bouygues Telecom	5h31'43"
2	Sandy Casar	FDJ	+ 00'00"
3	Ruben Plaza	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 00'00"
4	Damiano Cunego	Lampre-Farnese	+ 00'00"
5	Chris Horner	Team RadioShack	+ 00'00"
6	Lance Armstrong	Team RadioShack	+ 00'00"
10	Thor Hushovd	FDJ	+ 06'45"
19	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 06'45"
20	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 06'45"
21	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 06'45"
22	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 06'45"
28	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 06'45"
29	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 06'45"
30	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 06'45"
34	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 06'45"
35	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 06'45"
37	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 06'45"
39	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 06'45"
46	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 06'45"
52	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 06'45"
55	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 06'45"
111	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 34'48"

*****

Notable GC Standings

1	Alberto Contador	Astana	72h50'42"
2	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 00'08"
3	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 02'00"
4	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 02'13"
5	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 03'39"
6	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 05'01"
7	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 05'25"
8	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 05'45"
9	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 07'12"
10	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 07'51"
11	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 07'58"
12	Ruben Plaza	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 08'02"
13	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 08'19"
14	Chris Horner	Team RadioShack	+ 08'52"
15	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 09'02"
16	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 11'14"
27	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 37'18"

*****

Notable Mountains Results

1	Christophe Moreau	Caisse D'Epargne	60 pts
2	Pierrick Fedrigo	BBox Bouygues Telecom	54 pts
3	Lance Armstrong	Team RadioShack	48 pts
4	Chris Horner	Team RadioShack	39 pts
5	Sandy Casar	FDJ	37 pts
6	Ruben Plaza	BBox Bouygues Telecom	36 pts
6	Damiano Cunego	Lampre-Farnese	36 pts
8	Anthony Charteau	BBox Bouygues Telecom	28 pts

*****

Notable Mountains Standings

1	Anthony Charteau	BBox Bouygues Telecom	143 pts
2	Christophe Moreau	Caisse D'Epargne	128 pts
3	Damiano Cunego	Lampre-Farnese	99 pts
4	Sandy Casar	FDJ	93 pts
5	Jérôme Pineau	Quick Step	92 pts

*****

For full Stage 16 results and overall standings, visit the official TdF website.  Check back tomorrow for a preview of Stage 17.