Wednesday, July 7, 2010

TdF Commentary 7/7

Stage 4 Recap
Petacchi claims second stage victory in Tour's first true bunch sprint

In the first of what should be three relatively easy and straightforward stages with no effect on anything other than the green jersey race, we were finally treated to what was the first true bunch sprint of the Tour.  A breakaway containing five riders was formed early, but was doomed to failure as the sprinting teams began their chase.  After a series of potentially dangerous roundabouts leading to the finish in Reims, Team HTC-Columbia set up their sprint train and a victory for Mark Cavendish seemed inevitable.  However, Stage 1 winner Alessandro Petacchi, knowing that Cavendish would begin his sprint from about 200 meters away from the finish, brilliantly started his own acceleration a little earlier, catching Cavendish off guard.  All the sprinting contenders would follow Petacchi but none were able to make the pass.  Cavendish hiccuped and already found himself several places back following Petacchi's surprise attack.  After a hard effort to catch up, the Briton he realized he couldn't get the stage win and stopped pedaling, ending up in 12th.

Many of the top sprinters, including Petacchi, were involved in the heavy crashes of Stage 2.  While Cavendish made it through the stage unscathed, Tyler Farrar wasn't so lucky.  Farrar already conceded before the beginning of the stage that he's probably too hurt to challenge for the sprint, so the Garmin-Transitions team instead sent Julian Dean and Robbie Hunter, who would impressively finish 2nd and 4th in today's stage, respectively.  The team will have to keep an eye on Farrar to see if and when he can contend for stage victories.  Robbie McEwen also had crashed and mentioned that it greatly affected his form in today's stage.  The Australian veteran still was able to get 4th today and sits in 3rd in the green jersey race, behind Hushovd and Petacchi.

Thor Hushovd, after working hard in Stages 2 and 3, claimed that he was out of energy in today's sprint.  Despite starting the sprint in a comfortable position, the green jersey holder ended up in 9th.  Hushovd continues to hold the green jersey, but with his mediocre finish and with Petacchi's win today, the race for the green jersey now again becomes competitive.  If Petacchi continues to dominate the bunch sprints like he used to do six or seven years ago, he could challenge for the green jersey in the same way Cavendish did last year.  Of course, to win the jersey, Petacchi must complete the race.  This could be difficult for him - in 2003, Petacchi dominated the Tour and the Giro sprints early on, but abandoned in the mountains.  However, in 2004, he would win an incredible nine stages and complete the race with the mauve jersey (the Giro's version of the Tour's green jersey).

Although it's still early in the race, it's quite safe to say the green jersey competition has now essentially been narrowed down to a two horse race.  If Petacchi continues his excellence all the way to Paris, Hushovd will have to consistently finish in the top five on bunch sprints, in addition to his usual strategy of getting points on intermediate stages.  In case Petacchi abandons the Tour during the Alps, another sprinter like McEwen would become Hushovd's top competition - but this would also make winning green much easier for the Norwegian.

*****

Notable Stage Results

1Alessandro PetacchiLampre-Farnese35 pts
2Julian DeanGarmin-Transitions30 pts
3Edvald Boasson HagenTeam Sky26 pts
4Robbie McEwenKatusha24 pts
7José Joaquin RojasCaisse D'Epargne19 pts
9Thor HushovdCervélo TestTeam17 pts
10Oscar FreireRabobank16 pts
11Gerald CiolekMilram15 pts
12Mark CavendishTeam HTC-Columbia14 pts
23Tyler FarrarGarmin-Transitions3 pts

*****

Notable Points Standings

1Thor HushovdCervélo TestTeam80 pts
2Alessandro PetacchiLampre-Farnese70 pts
3Robbie McEwenKatusha62 pts
5José Joaquin RojasCaisse D'Epargne49 pts
10Edvald Boasson HagenTeam Sky38 pts
25Gerald CiolekMilram19 pts
28Oscar FreireRabobank18 pts
36Mark CavendishTeam HTC-Columbia15 pts
56Tyler FarrarGarmin-Transitions7 pts

*****

Stage 5 Preview



Stage 5 is the second of three consecutive "easy" stages that comes after three very stressful stages for the peloton (though the events of Stages 1 and 2 were more out of bad luck than difficult terrain).  The terrain here is almost flat, and once again the only significant action we should expect is the bunch sprint at the finish line.  The field should be a little more rested, so we may see a more exciting sprint than today's.  We'll also get a better idea of Mark Cavendish's situation - whether he's just been a victim of bad luck or whether he's really not the dominant rider he was last year.  That being said, the safest picks to win this stage would be either Cavendish or Petacchi, but instead I'll take a risk by picking Robbie McEwen.

*****

For full Stage 4 results and overall standingsmore complete info on Stage 5, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website.  Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening.  As always, you can catch the live Versus broadcast at 8:30 AM (ET).

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