Stage 7 Recap
Chavanel makes monster run to reclaim yellow, Pineau tightens grip on polka-dot jersey race, Contenders stay put
In today's introduction to the Tour's first set of mountains, Sylvain Chavanel made a surprise run to win the stage and reclaim yellow. The medium mountains stage began with a five-man breakaway that included polka-dot jersey holder and Chavanel's Quick Step teammate Jérôme Pineau. Pineau's time with the jersey was expected to come to an end today, but he managed to get in the breakaway and was the first man up the first five climbs of the day. As the peloton closed in on the breakaway, several counterattacks were launched, including the one by Stage 2's winner Sylvain Chavanel. With only the final climb to go, the only rider out of the original breakaway to remain in front was Pineau, who would be joined by Chavanel with 14 km to go. Chavanel went ahead solo to get the stage win, while Pineau dropped back after having accomplished his goal for the day. Once again the Quick Step team beats all odds and continues to overachieve on this Tour.
None of the GC contenders launched any attacks on the final climb, as they are clearly saving energy for the category 1 summit finish tomorrow. The leaders' peloton would finish 1'47" behind Chavanel, with just the stage winner and five counterattackers in front. Of the contenders, only Andreas Klöden was dropped from the peloton. This puts the German very far back in the standings, and Team RadioShack may have to adjust its tactics to use Jani Brajkovic more, with Klöden demoted to a pure super-domestique role now that he is no longer considered a GC threat.
Cadel Evans now sits comfortably in 2nd place and probably actually relishes not having to deal with the pressure of wearing yellow. After tomorrow, we may see any of the contenders in yellow - most likely Alberto Contador - but rest assured that Sylvain Chavanel's reign in yellow will once again be limited to one day. Contador must also be happy with his GC position now. At this point, he only really needs to gain time on Evans, as he will easily be able to erase his deficit against Andy Schleck on the time trial.
The sprinters were easily dropped by the peloton, as expected. However, what was somewhat alarming was that Thor Hushovd was dropped relatively early, and even Alessandro Petacchi was able to hang with the group longer than Hushovd could. Hushovd's approach to winning green is being able to stay with the peloton on these climbs of category 2 or easier, and clearly he has been out of sorts for the last few days. Also, poor Robbie McEwen, having struggled through the flat stages following a crash in Stage 2, crashed again after the end of yesterday's stage after a cameraman ran into his path. McEwen was able to make it through today's stage on time, but he may have trouble making the time limit on tomorrow's more difficult stage.
Jérôme Pineau's efforts today extended his lead on the polka-dot jersey race, but certainly some of the top contenders have not even made a single move yet. Expect most of these contenders, especially Matt Lloyd - the winner of this year's Giro d'Italia mountains classification - to join the breakaway tomorrow. Lloyd was part of a counterattack today, most likely to go for the stage win and claim the 20 mountain points at the finish. However, unlike Pineau, Lloyd will probably have gas left in the tank to make some kind of move tomorrow. In the team classification, Astana and Team RadioShack both finished today's stage with three riders in the peloton. Astana now takes the lead in the team classification, with RadioShack in the fifth spot, 2'07" behind. All the other teams near the top of the team classification have relied on breakaways, and should drop down in the standings after a few mountain stages.
*****
*****
Update: I am making a late night update to reiterate what a brilliant move the Quick Step team just made. Especially since the team no longer has a sprinter to contend in the later flat stages, this stage was really their last hope at making any impact other than participation in a later breakaway and the possibility of another stage win. Pineau made a great effort, and Chavanel's attack was timed perfectly. This was a true showing of genius, using a brilliant team plan and inspired efforts to get results beyond what the team could have expected. We may not hear much from Quick Step for the rest of the Tour, but their moves in Stages 2 and 7 make their Tour more than successful and should be an inspiration for all the other teams on Tour that are not as stacked with raw talent. Wow. To have a breakaway rider not only win two stages in a single Tour but also wear yellow on two separate occasions. Wow. And all while having a teammate solidly in polka dots. Wow. Such is the beauty of the Tour de France - that those not as physically gifted as the top contenders can still achieve something notable if they have a great strategy and the will to succeed.
*****
| 1 | Sylvain Chavanel | Quick Step | 4h22'52" |
| 2 | Rafael Valls Ferri | Footon-Servetto | + 00'57" |
| 3 | Juan Manuel Garate | Rabobank | + 01'27" |
| 13 | Alberto Contador | Astana | + 01'47" |
| 14 | Cadel Evans | BMC Racing Team | + 01'47" |
| 16 | Lance Armstrong | Team RadioShack | + 01'47" |
| 20 | Andy Schleck | Team Saxo Bank | + 01'47" |
| 21 | Roman Kreuziger | Liquigas-Doimo | + 01'47" |
| 22 | Levi Leipheimer | Team RadioShack | + 01'47" |
| 24 | Alexandre Vinokourov | Astana | + 01'47" |
| 27 | Ivan Basso | Liquigas-Doimo | + 01'47" |
| 29 | Denis Menchov | Rabobank | + 01'47" |
| 32 | Bradley Wiggins | Team Sky | + 01'47" |
| 37 | Robert Gesink | Rabobank | + 01'47" |
| 38 | Carlos Sastre | Cervélo TestTeam | + 01'47" |
| 50 | Andreas Klöden | Team RadioShack | + 04'00" |
*****
Notable GC Standings
| 1 | Sylvain Chavanel | Quick Step | 33h01'23" |
| 2 | Cadel Evans | BMC Racing Team | + 01'25" |
| 3 | Ryder Hesjedal | Garmin-Transitions | + 01'32" |
| 4 | Andy Schleck | Team Saxo Bank | + 01'55" |
| 5 | Alexandre Vinokourov | Astana | + 02'17" |
| 6 | Alberto Contador | Astana | + 02'26" |
| 10 | Denis Menchov | Rabobank | + 02'35" |
| 11 | Bradley Wiggins | Team Sky | + 02'35" |
| 12 | Roman Kreuziger | Liquigas-Doimo | + 03'10" |
| 14 | Lance Armstrong | Team RadioShack | + 03'16" |
| 17 | Levi Leipheimer | Team RadioShack | + 03'39" |
| 23 | Robert Gesink | Rabobank | + 04'02" |
| 26 | Carlos Sastre | Cervélo TestTeam | + 04'05" |
| 27 | Ivan Basso | Liquigas-Doimo | + 04'06" |
| 35 | Andreas Klöden | Team RadioShack | + 06'00" |
*****
Stage 8 Preview
Tomorrow's stage is the last before the Tour's first rest day, and should promise to have an exciting finale. A breakaway will likely form, with riders aiming to claim at least the Tour's first category 1 climb, up the Col de la Ramaz. However, the highlight of the stage is clearly the final climb up the Morzine-Avoriaz.
The middle portion of the climb has a reasonably steep gradient that is perfect for an attack by Alberto Contador. The contenders will likely be riding as a pack leading into the first category 1 climb, then the action will begin. There's a good chance the pack will stay mostly intact leading into the final climb, but from then on it will be all out, as any advantage over a rival will translate directly into a time gap.
There are several possible outcomes for the stage. The least likely is for the initial breakaway to stay ahead for the stage win, though this has certainly occurred many times before. Another possible outcome is for the peloton to push the pace later in the stage to try to catch the escapees and launch a counterattacker to a stage win. This move might be a good one for a climber like Matt Lloyd because the stage is back heavy and the final climb is worth 30 points. However, the counterattack must be launched before the GC contenders start battling it out to have a chance at the stage win. The other main possible outcome is for the GC contenders to be the first up the Morzine-Avoriaz.
I'll predict the final outcome, with Alberto Contador getting the stage victory and Cadel Evans ending up with the yellow jersey by just a few seconds. Should be a very exciting finish that will let us separate the contenders from the pretenders. We'll also start to see more of the polka-dot jersey contenders emerging, though right now Jérôme Pineau (who is not considered an overall KotM contender) has a lead comfortable enough to hold until Stage 9.
*****
For full Stage 7 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 8, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website. Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening. Live coverage on Versus begins at 7:30 AM (ET).
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