TdF Commentary 7/24

Stage 19 Recap

Cancellara wins time trial, Contador has unexpectedly close battle with Schleck but holds on for yellow, Menchov overtakes Sanchez for podium spot

The race for the yellow jersey is now unofficially over, as Alberto Contador was able to maintain his lead over Andy Schleck in the final time trial.  Unsurprisingly, the time trial was won by specialist Fabian Cancellara, who was also the winner of the prologue time trial.  Cancellara's efforts were aided by heavy crosswinds later in the day that slowed down riders' times over the 52 km course by several minutes.  Fortunately, the weather wouldn't affect the GC race because the riders start the course in reverse order of standings, leaving all the GC contenders riding at the end of the day.  Cancellara set a time of 1h00'56", with an average speed of 51.2 kmh (31.8 mph).

While Andy Schleck surprised many be riding the time trial of his life, even having a lead over Alberto Contador at the first time check, Contador finally pulled through and finished 31" ahead of Schleck. Contador's time trial was slower than expected, especially after he won a time trial in last year's Tour, but keep in mind that last year's course had a relatively big climb, while this year's course was very flat.  The crosswinds didn't help either, and Contador just didn't have the size to get himself in the top ranks.  Because tomorrow's stage is by tradition non-competitive as far as GC goes, Contador will end the Tour with a 39" lead over Schleck - one of the smallest leads in Tour history.  Interestingly, this is also the same amount of time Contador had gained over Schleck in his attack in Stage 15.  Without this attack, all other things equal (of course a fallacious assumption), this Tour could have come down to fractions of a second!  Andy Schleck was very impressive with his time trial, which is known to be his weakness.  Schleck is just 25 years old and will continue to develop, especially in the time trial discipline.  By next year, we may expect him to have a much improved aero-position and be able to contend with Contador in both the mountains and the time trials.  Contador is fairly young as well, and the two of them should have some great battles in years to come.  As a consolation, Schleck will receive the white jersey for the third time - a feat achieved before only by Jan Ullrich.

Denis Menchov had by far the best ride out of the top GC contenders.  He finished in 11th, but without any crosswinds, he probably would have been able to place in third.  Menchov's time was far more than enough to get him onto the Tour podium for the first time in his career (In 2008, Menchov finished 4th, and 3rd place finisher Bernard Kohl would eventually get his placing revoked for a doping offense.  However, Menchov has not retroactively been awarded 3rd, nor did he get the honor of standing on the podium in Paris.).  Along with his win in the 2009 Giro d'Italia and two wins in the 2005 and 2007 Vuelta a España, Menchov has now placed on the podium in all three Grand Tours, putting him in the upper echelon of cyclists.  Samuel Sanchez, meanwhile, didn't ride a horrible time trial, but now knows that he will need to do better on the mountains to place well in future Tours.

The GC rider with the worst time trial was Joaquin Rodriguez, who finished quite close to last place.  Rodriguez had been very impressive this Tour - until today.  And at the age of 31, I don't see him improving in the discipline to compete in future Grand Tours, especially those with two time trials instead of one.  On the other hand, some young riders in Roman Kreuziger and Robert Gesink had sub-par performances, but are only 24 years old and are sure to improve over the next several years.  Within a few years, both riders could be ready to be designated team leaders with podium potential.

Despite the late crosswinds slowing down the time trials of Levi Leipheimer and Andreas Klöden, both of whom are usually among the top 20 finishers, Team RadioShack still managed to beat Caisse D'Epargne today (which is not considered a good time-trialling team) by 46", to effectively win the team classification by a margin of 9'15".  While RadioShack's GC goals were unsuccessful this year, at least they managed to win the team classification.  One has to wonder about their future though, with many of their riders starting to get old.  It's certainly possible that next year, their GC rider could be Jani Brajkovic.

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Fabian Cancellara	Team Saxo Bank	1h00'56"
2	Tony Martin	Team HTC-Columbia	+ 00'17"
3	Bert Grabsch	Team HTC-Columbia	+ 01'48"
11	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 03'51"
35	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 05'43"
40	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 05'51"
41	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 05'59"
44	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 06'14"
52	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 06'40"
53	Nicolas Roche	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 06'42"
69	Chris Horner	Team RadioShack	+ 07'08"
71	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 07'10"
73	Ruben Plaza	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 07'11"
79	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 07'18"
82	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 07'25"
87	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 07'35"
109	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 08'33"
154	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 10'17"

*****

Notable GC Standings

1	Alberto Contador	Astana	89h16'27"
2	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 00'39"
3	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 02'01"
4	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 03'40"
5	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 06'54"
6	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 09'31"
7	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 10'15"
8	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 11'37"
9	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 11'54"
10	Chris Horner	Team RadioShack	+ 12'02"
11	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 14'21"
12	Ruben Plaza	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 14'29"
13	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 14'40"
14	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 16'36"
15	Nicolas Roche	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 16'59"

*****

Stage 20 Preview

After a long and particularly eventful Tour, we finally reach the last stage, which finishes up with the group taking eight laps around the famous Champs-Élysées.  By tradition, the stage is non-competitive except among the sprinters and non-GC riders trying to steal a stage win.  In particular, no racing whatsoever is done before the bunch reaches Paris, and anyone who dares attack would undoubtedly be crucified by the peloton and may as well quit their career in pro cycling.  The beginning of the stage is used for the jersey winners (except the green jersey, which is still up for grabs) to drink some champagne in celebration and have some photo ops.  All the other riders, meanwhile, will just chat and reflect on the past three weeks of racing.

Once the race reaches the Champs-Élysées and the massive Parisian crowd that is there to watch, that's where the racing begins.  The peloton will go at a very fast pace, and multiple riders will attack, hoping for a stage win in the best case scenario, or at the very least some attention from the crowd in the scenario that occurs 99% of the time.  While there have been a few exceptions, like the always unpredictable Alexandre Vinokourov escaping to win the stage in 2005, just like any other very flat stage, it's almost always a day for the sprinters.

The battle for green is heavily in favor of Alessandro Petacchi, and you can be sure that he, Thor Hushovd, and Mark Cavendish will be battling it out on the intermediate sprints in addition to the presumed bunch sprint at the finish.  Mark Cavendish won the stage (as well as every single other bunch sprint) last year, and while he is now missing some of his valuable teammates, he has still shown that he can excel by riding the wheels of other teams.  I expect no different of an outcome tomorrow, with Cavendish claiming the glory of the stage win, but Alessandro Petacchi hanging on to win the green jersey that nobody at first really even expected him to be in the running for.

*****

For full Stage 19 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 20, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website.  Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening.  Live coverage on Versus begins at x:x0 AM (ET).