Stage 13 Recap
Vinokourov hangs on with late attack for stage win, Cavendish leads bunch sprint for 2nd, Petacchi reclaims green... again
Alexandre Vinokourov looked primed for a stage win yesterday, only to lose the lead just before the finish line. Visibly angry at yesterday's performance, Vinokourov continued his arguably renegade tactics and seized an opportunity to sustain a late attack on the peloton for the stage win and his second consecutive combativity award. The stage started out with a breakaway from Juan Antonio Flecha, Pierrick Fedrigo, and Sylvain Chavanel, who are all familiar faces when it comes to breakaways. Chavanel, in particular, so far is looking like a top candidate for the Tour's overall most aggressive rider.
Alessandro Petacchi and Mark Cavendish came into the stage hoping for a bunch sprint, and so the Lampre-Farnese and HTC-Columbia teams did most of the work in the peloton, keeping the gap between the group and the breakaway controlled so that the peloton's pace leading to the final climb wouldn't be too fast. Unfortunately for hybrid sprinter Thor Hushovd - who was hoping to drop the rest of the sprinters - Petacchi's and Cavendish's calculations were correct, and the two were able to hang with the pack during the climb. The bad news for the sprinters is that the catch occurred rather early - 10 km from the finish - and this opened up great opportunities for attacks on the peloton, which was riding relatively slowly to ease the sprinters up the climb.
The first to attack was Alessandro Ballan, who was eventually caught by a few other riders, including Alexandre Vinokourov. To catch the aggressors, the peloton needed to pick up the pace, but this stretched out the group, and many of the sprinters were spit out the back. Other than Robbie McEwen, all of the sprint contenders eventually were able to rejoin the group, which had swallowed up all the attackers except for Vinokourov. With a comfortable lead of around 20" in the final straightaway, "Vino" raised his hands in glory and soft-pedaled to the finish line, giving up several seconds on the peloton to end up with a margin of 13" - perhaps an indication that he is going for stage wins instead of the third spot on the podium in Paris. Now that Vinokourov has his stage win, hopefully Astana can convince the maverick to devote his remaining efforts to helping Alberto Contador instead of wasting his energy on mindless attacks, as he has already done several times this Tour much to the chagrin of Contador and the rest of the team.
Following Vinokourov came the peloton consisting mainly of the sprinters and GC contenders. Even without the help of his teammates (as one of his top teammates crashed out of the Tour and another one was disqualified in Stage 11), Mark Cavendish was able to win the bunch sprint to the line, with Alessandro Petacchi coming in right behind. Once again, Thor Hushovd couldn't find himself in the top five, finishing in 8th. This means Hushovd gave up 8 points to Petacchi and once again the green jersey goes back to the Italian.
This has really been a great green jersey battle similar to Hushovd's battle with Cavendish last year. However, at this point Hushovd's continued disappointment on the bunch sprints will make it difficult for him to win back the jersey. Hushovd will have to try to get points on intermediate sprints on the upcoming mountains stages, and fortunately the next two stages will have some enticing opportunities for him, with 12 potential points tomorrow and 6 the day after. Hushovd will likely need a lead of at least 10 points leading into Stage 18 in order to keep himself in contention for the green jersey. If he doesn't capitalize on the intermediate sprints tomorrow, the deal will essentially be sealed for Alessandro Petacchi.
Alessandro Petacchi and Mark Cavendish came into the stage hoping for a bunch sprint, and so the Lampre-Farnese and HTC-Columbia teams did most of the work in the peloton, keeping the gap between the group and the breakaway controlled so that the peloton's pace leading to the final climb wouldn't be too fast. Unfortunately for hybrid sprinter Thor Hushovd - who was hoping to drop the rest of the sprinters - Petacchi's and Cavendish's calculations were correct, and the two were able to hang with the pack during the climb. The bad news for the sprinters is that the catch occurred rather early - 10 km from the finish - and this opened up great opportunities for attacks on the peloton, which was riding relatively slowly to ease the sprinters up the climb.
The first to attack was Alessandro Ballan, who was eventually caught by a few other riders, including Alexandre Vinokourov. To catch the aggressors, the peloton needed to pick up the pace, but this stretched out the group, and many of the sprinters were spit out the back. Other than Robbie McEwen, all of the sprint contenders eventually were able to rejoin the group, which had swallowed up all the attackers except for Vinokourov. With a comfortable lead of around 20" in the final straightaway, "Vino" raised his hands in glory and soft-pedaled to the finish line, giving up several seconds on the peloton to end up with a margin of 13" - perhaps an indication that he is going for stage wins instead of the third spot on the podium in Paris. Now that Vinokourov has his stage win, hopefully Astana can convince the maverick to devote his remaining efforts to helping Alberto Contador instead of wasting his energy on mindless attacks, as he has already done several times this Tour much to the chagrin of Contador and the rest of the team.
This has really been a great green jersey battle similar to Hushovd's battle with Cavendish last year. However, at this point Hushovd's continued disappointment on the bunch sprints will make it difficult for him to win back the jersey. Hushovd will have to try to get points on intermediate sprints on the upcoming mountains stages, and fortunately the next two stages will have some enticing opportunities for him, with 12 potential points tomorrow and 6 the day after. Hushovd will likely need a lead of at least 10 points leading into Stage 18 in order to keep himself in contention for the green jersey. If he doesn't capitalize on the intermediate sprints tomorrow, the deal will essentially be sealed for Alessandro Petacchi.
*****
Notable Stage Results
Notable Stage Results
| 1 | Alexandre Vinokourov | Team RadioShack | 35 pts |
| 2 | Mark Cavendish | Team HTC-Columbia | 30 pts |
| 3 | Alessandro Petacchi | Lampre-Farnese | 26 pts |
| 5 | José Joaquin Rojas | Caisse D'Epargne | 22 pts |
| 8 | Thor Hushovd | Cervélo TestTeam | 18 pts |
*****
Notable Points Standings
| 1 | Alessandro Petacchi | Lampre-Farnese | 187 pts |
| 2 | Thor Hushovd | Cervélo TestTeam | 185 pts |
| 3 | Mark Cavendish | Team HTC-Columbia | 162 pts |
| 4 | José Joaquin Rojas | Caisse D'Epargne | 144 pts |
| 5 | Robbie McEwen | Katusha | 138 pts |
*****
Stage 14 Preview
At last, the Tour will hit the Pyrenees tomorrow, which will provide four stages of guaranteed brutal action. Unlike in the Alps, the peloton won't be eased into the Pyrenees, and to finish Stage 14, riders will have to negotiate an HC climb immediately followed by a category-1 climb. This will very much be a critical stage for the yellow jersey contenders as opposed to the polka-dot jersey ones. The first thing of note is the rather flat terrain in the first 100 km. Thor Hushovd may find it a great opportunity to try to sneak into a breakaway and compete for points on the two intermediate sprints, and he'll basically have to do this if he wants to see the green jersey again. But of course, the main attractions on the stage are what comes after these first 100 km.
Once again, we have a faux-mountaintop finish, this time with the top of the Ax 3 Domaines coming a kilometer and change away from the finish. Given the tactics of Astana thus far, it's very possible that many of the GC contenders will find themselves losing time to the likes of Alberto Contador not through attacks but through a rapid though steady pace. While the finish atop the Col de Tourmalet will be the granddaddy stage, this stage might actually be Contador's best opportunity to launch an attack. Unlike the Tourmalet, which is difficult because the climb is very long, the Ax 3 Domaines has many steep portions that may be inviting for a Contador attack.
With Andy Schleck's stellar performance in the Alps, it will be hard to predict who will be the better man tomorrow. My heart says Schleck but my brain says Contador. We'll just have to wait until then. Meanwhile, in the battle for third, we may see riders not even try to chase Contador and Schleck anymore should they attack, and instead just focus on their own battle. We may see even more riders get placed out of contention for the podium after today, and what's worse is that even with a good performance today, the riders will still have three more very difficult days in the mountains.
I fully expect an early breakaway to form early, but I can't quite predict what will become of it. Those vying for the polka-dot jersey may want to wait until another day; the breakaway will use a lot of energy to build a lead heading into the climbs, and that lead may disappear even before the top of the first climb, depending on the pace of the peloton. If the peloton is riding fast and catches the breakaway before the top of the first climb, it would be an excellent opportunity for King of the Mountains riders to make a push for the top of the Port de Pailhères for a maximum of 20 points. In this case, I foresee a GC contender like Alberto Contador winning the stage. If the peloton rides slow, the stage win will likely go to a breakaway rider, since the climbs come only at the end of the stage. The pace of the peloton will likely depend on the composition of the breakaway, as well as the general strategy each team has over the course of the Tour's sojourn in the Pyrenees.
For the sake of making an official prediction, though, I'll guess that there will be a breakaway victory, that Alberto Contador will ride the wheel of Andy Schleck to finish with the same time as him, and that Denis Menchov will overtake Samuel Sanchez for the third spot in the GC. Actually, the third prediction is not too likely, as Sanchez has looked much better than the rest of the third place contenders, but you never know - I guess that's what makes predictions fun.
*****
For full Stage 13 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 14, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website. Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening. Live coverage on Versus begins at 7:30 AM (ET).
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