TdF Commentary 7/19

Stage 15 Recap

Voeckler makes solo attack on breakaway for stage win, Contador attacks after Schleck mechanical problem to claim yellow

The stage's pace began very high, with the peloton remaining intact as they gobbled up breakaways containing threatening riders.  Interestingly, Alessandro Petacchi and Thor Hushovd got points on the first climb, while Jérôme Pineau scored on the following intermediate sprint - instead of vice versa.  Those riders were likely looking to get into a breakaway and thus were near the front of the peloton - however they were too threatening to the peloton and not allowed to escape.  It wasn't until the 93 km mark (which is incredibly late) that a breakaway was formed.  Because all of the riders in the breakaway weren't threats to the GC, KotM, or team classification (i.e. no RadioShack or Caisse D'Epargne riders), the peloton was content to let the group go.

From that point, the peloton eased to a very casual pace - slow enough to keep even the sprinters in the group until the HC climb up the Port de Balès - and leading into the final climb, the peloton had given the breakaway a cushion of over ten minutes.  This would prove to be too much, as even with Team Saxo Bank pushing the pace of the peloton (which would of course split the peloton into pieces), Thomas Voeckler still reached the peak of the Port de Balès over four minutes ahead of the peloton.  The French national champion had attacked the lead group, which had already been falling apart, and held off all the other breakaway riders on the descent for the stage win.  This marks France's 5th stage win on Tour, and as the crowd at the finish noticed that the rider in the lead is one of France's most popular riders, they roared in applause as Voeckler coasted slowly to the line, bowing to the crowd.

Meanwhile, the peloton saw moments of aggression from Andy Schleck.  His first attack was only matched by Alberto Contador, Samuel Sanchez, Denis Menchov, and Jurgen Van Den Broeck, and appropriately, the five riders are also the top five in the GC standings.  A second attack by Schleck was looking to be more successful, but Schleck's chain slipped, slowing him down to nearly a standstill.  In what is considered a very unsportsmanlike and classless move, Alberto Contador took advantage of Schleck's mechanical problem and launched an attack on his own.  Contador was matched only by Sanchez and Menchov, who had no choice but to follow if they want to still have any chances whatsoever at winning the Tour.  What was repeatedly disturbing about Contador's move was that he continued to look backwards to see Schleck's position, but continued to really push the pace.

I believe this is a truly classless move from Contador which only increases my disrespect for him.  It is an unwritten rule that riders should not attack if a rival has a crash or mechanical problem (they should continue riding at their previous pace), and if the same thing had happened to Contador, Schleck has already claimed that he would have waited for him.  Contador's battle with Schleck has now become dirty, and it is in complete contrast from the more noble Armstrong/Ullrich battles of years past, where the two waited for each other after crashes on separate occasions.  Andy Schleck rode furiously to try to bridge a gap that was likely over a minute between himself and Contador's group.  He passed many of the other GC contenders with ease, but never was able to get closer than 10" behind Contador, and because Contador was riding with a great descender in Samuel Sanchez, he was able to extend his lead on the descent.  Contador ended up 39" ahead of Schleck and ended up in the yellow jersey.  Schleck has vowed revenge, and we'll have to see whether he'll pull off any moves tomorrow in a stage that's not expected to be conducive for GC attacks.

In the GC, there is a good amount of movement, as expected.  Other than Contador and Schleck switching spots, we also see Jurgen Van Den Broeck extending his lead on Robert Gesink and really making a case for a possible podium finish.  Luis Leon Sanchez and Ivan Basso move down from 9th and 10th to 12th and 14th after disappointing performances today.  Nicholas Roche was also the victim of bad luck, getting a flat tire on the climb up the Balès, and seemed to never make it back to the peloton, dropping his standing down to 17th.  Alexandre Vinokourov and Ryder Hesjedal now find themselves in the top ten, with Roman Kreuziger peeking in.  Meanwhile, Andreas Klöden has reappeared in the top of the rank at 15th place, but at 3'23" back from 10th, it will be very tough for him to make a top ten appearance, especially when his priority is helping Levi Leipheimer.

Team RadioShack had a very strong outing today, with Levi Leipheimer finishing in 17th, Andreas Klöden in 22nd, and Lance Armstrong in 23rd.  Caisse D'Epargne couldn't match the effort but had a reasonably solid result with Ruben Plaza finishing in 26th, Christophe Moreau in 27th, and Luis-Leon Sanchez in 30th.  All in all, RadioShack finished with the best time of the day, a full 4'35" ahead of Caisse D'Epargne, thus giving themselves a solid 4'27" lead in the team competition that in theory should grow even more over the next two stages.  At this point, RadioShack can focus a little more on getting Armstrong a stage win.  Meanwhile, there was not much action in the polka-dot jersey race, as none of the riders who were already near the top of the standings were in the breakaway.  Thomas Voeckler jumps all the way into third place with a 60 point effort today.  He is likely spent, however, and we're most likely not to see him in contention tomorrow, where 90 points are at stake.

*****

Note on Contador attack: There has already been a split reaction to Alberto Contador's move, and even at Contador's ceremonial reception of the yellow jersey, half the crowd cheered while the other half booed (and you almost never hear crowds boo in cycling).  I've read through some good arguments on each side.  The best argument in favor of Contador's attack is that Andy Schleck's chain slip could have been the result of improper technique on Schleck's part, as well as improper preparation on the team mechanic's part - not just some freak accident.  The best argument against is that Contador should be looking to win the Tour by being the better cyclist than Schleck, not by taking advantage of a misfortune that has nothing to do with cycling skill (which is why the unwritten rule exists in the first place).  In the end, we all will never come to agreement, and hopefully those 39 seconds Contador gained today won't end up deciding the Tour.  Anyway, my opinion is clear (though admittedly biased from being an anti-Contador fan), and I'll stand by it.  I highly doubt that Contador was evaluating the situation as to the possibility that Schleck himself caused the mechanical problem - I think he just saw the opportunity to attack because he thinks that otherwise Schleck could win the Tour - a move of cowardice if you ask me.

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Thomas Voeckler	BBox Bouygues Telecom	4h52'42"
2	Alessandro Ballan	BMC Racing Team	+ 01'20"
3	Aitor Perez	Footon-Servetto	+ 01'20"
7	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 02'50"
8	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 02'50"
9	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 02'50"
12	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 03'29"
13	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 03'29"
14	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 03'29"
15	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 03'55"
16	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 03'55"
17	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 03'55"
19	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 04'08"
21	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 04'08"
22	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 04'08"
24	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 04'08"
30	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 05'44"
32	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 05'44"
37	Nicolas Roche	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 07'52"

*****

Notable GC Standings

1	Alberto Contador	Astana	72h50'42"
2	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 00'08"
3	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 02'00"
4	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 02'13"
5	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 03'39"
6	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 05'01"
7	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 05'25"
8	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 05'45"
9	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 07'12"
10	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 07'51"
11	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 07'58"
12	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 08'19"
13	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 09'02"
14	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 09'15"
15	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 11'14"
17	Nicolas Roche	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 12'34"

*****

Notable Mountains Results

1	Thomas Voeckler	BBox Bouygues Telecom	60 pts
2	Aitor Perez	Footon-Servetto	42 pts
3	Brian Vandborg	Liquigas-Doimo	39 pts
4	Johan Van Summeren	Garmin-Transitions	35 pts
5	Alessandro Ballan	BMC Racing Team	32 pts
6	Lloyd Mondory	AG2R La Mondiale	28 pts
7	Serguei Ivanov	Katusha	27 pts
8	Sébastien Turgot	BBox Bouygues Telecom	18 pts
9	Alberto Contador	Astana	14 pts
10	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	12 pts

*****

Notable Mountains Standings

1	Anthony Charteau	BBox Bouygues Telecom	115 pts
2	Jérôme Pineau	Quick Step	92 pts
3	Thomas Voeckler	BBox Bouygues Telecom	82 pts
7	Christophe Moreau	Caisse D'Epargne	68 pts
8	Mario Aerts	Omega Pharma-Lotto	65 pts
9	Damiano Cunego	Lampre-Farnese	63 pts
10	Christophe Riblon	AG2R La Mondiale	60 pts
11	Sandy Casar	FDJ	56 pts
13	Sylvain Chavanel	Quick Step	47 pts
15	Rafael Valls	Footon-Servetto	46 pts

*****

Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16 promises to be the biggest King of the Mountains battleground of the Tour, and it's easy to see the two biggest reasons why.  First and most obviously, the four big climbs are worth a maximum of 15, 15, 20, and 40 points each, and this stage has the most mountain points up for grabs out of any single stage on Tour.  Second, there is a huge 61.5 km margin between the top of the final climb and the end of the stage.  This front-heaviness of the stage means that GC contenders are more likely not to attack, which gives the breakaway a lot more leeway (though given Andy Schleck's angry state, who knows, we may see an early attack from him).

The battle for the polka-dot jersey will only be made more interesting by the order of the climbs in the stage, with the more difficult ones coming later.  Polka-dot jersey contenders will have to decide on what strategy they'll use out of many possibilities.  The most straightforward option is to attack early to try to get points on all the mountains, at the risk of getting spent before the HC climbs.  Another possibility - and one that I see as a great one for the riders already near the top of the ranks - is to have their team work to limit the size of the breakaway and try to get partial credit on the first two or three climbs, then counterattack to try to make the pass on the Col du Tourmalet or the Col d'Aubisque.  The polka-dot jersey race is still wide open, but after today, it could be all but decided, with Stage 17 being the only remaining stage with any climbs whatsoever.

Meanwhile, the stage also presents a great opportunity for a breakaway rider to pick up a stage win.  The King of the Mountains riders will spend all their energy getting to the top of the Col d'Aubisque at the 138 km mark, and while the rest of the course is fairly downhill, counterattackers will have a good amount of time to make the pass starting from the 155 km mark.  Riders looking purely for the stage win will need to have their team control the gap between the peloton and the breakaway, and they will have to time their attack well so that they'll have enough energy to maintain their lead after the descent down the Col d'Aubisque.  I'd expect several riders to make such a counterattack and work together towards the end and go for a sprint finish.  But of course, the possibility of a rider on the initial breakaway going on to win this monster of a stage like a doped up Floyd Landis lingers.

One noteworthy aspect of the stage is that it goes up the notoriously difficult Col du Tourmalet in the first half of the stage.  Such difficult climbs are often saved for closer to the end of mountain stages because they're perfect for GC contenders and would also get double points for being the last climb of the stage.  However, the Tour this year is climbing the Tourmalet again as the mountaintop finish of Stage 17, and it will go the more difficult direction then (Stage 16's climb is 17.1 km at 7.3% and Stage 17's is 18.6 km at 7.5%.  The riders will descent the same path tomorrow as they will ascend in Stage 17.).  Also climbing the Col d'Aubisque is no easy task either, and I even think that having the Tourmalet before the Aubisque will force riders to make decisions, thus making the stage more exciting.

I have no idea who will end up in polka-dots after today, but I do feel like there will be a breakaway finish containing very few, if any, of the KotM riders.  After falling out of podium contention, Lance Armstrong has deliberately put himself very far back in the GC in order to get the opportunity to get a breakaway win.  Team RadioShack's directeur sportif Johan Bruyneel has also announced that it's Armstrong's intention to go for a stage win.  Armstrong still does have the legs to excel in the mountains when no GC riders are in the mix, and he still has the time-trialling skills to sustain a big enough solo lead on the flats.  I'd say that in order to get the stage win, Armstrong needs to get a sizable gap going into the intermediate sprints.  Riding with a small group will make the breakaway win more likely, but Armstrong would have to compete in a sprint for the eventual win.  Because a stage win here would be an excellent swansong for the retiring seven-time Tour win, I'll predict that Lance Armstrong indeed will go solo leading up the Col d'Aubisque, passing the breakaway riders and cruising solo for the stage win.

*****

For full Stage 15 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 16, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website.  Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening.  Live coverage on Versus begins bright and early at 6:30 AM (ET).