TdF Commentary 7/23

Stage 18 Recap

Surprise..... Cavendish wins bunch sprint for fourth stage win, Petacchi is back in green

Stage 18 was rather uneventful so I'll keep it short today, but it's okay because after four really difficult stages, the riders really needed a stage that was as flat as Kansas.  Today's breakaway contained Daniel Oss (Liquigas), Jérôme Pineau (Quick Step), Benoit Vaugrenard (FDJ), and Matti Breschel (Team Saxo Bank).  Nothing new today as it was Mark Cavendish's Team HTC-Columbia and Alessanddro Petacchi's Lampre-Farnese who led the chase, as was expected.  Leading to the finish line, this time it was Edvald Boasson Hagen's Team Sky setting up their sprint train at the front.  A group of riders from Thor Hushovd's Cervélo TestTeam also were able to cluster near the front, and even Oscar Freire was in the mix, after basically having disappeared from the sprint scene.

It was Alessandro Petacchi who instigated the final sprint, bursting ahead from a few places back.  Mark Cavendish was able to get onto Petacchi's slipstream, pass him, and win by about three bike lengths.  Meanwhile, Hushovd didn't seem like he had any acceleration in him, even though he was expected to be in the best shape of all the sprinters coming out of the mountains.  The top of the ranks was a list of the usual suspects: Cavendish, Julian Dean, Robbie McEwen, and Edvald Boasson Hagen, while Hushovd - who was in a prime position leading to the final straightaway - ended up in 14th to claim a measly 12 points to Petacchi's 26.

This stage win gives Alessandro Petacchi back the green jersey, as well as a 10 point lead over Thor Hushovd and a 16 point lead over Mark Cavendish.  Petacchi should now easily be able to take the green jersey all the way.  Only one bunch sprint remans (on the final stage), and we can assume that Cavendish will win it to claim 35 points.  Petacchi would need at least 20 points (Cavendish wins the jersey in case of a tie because of more stage wins), and to do so he will need to place in 6th on the Champs-Élysées.  If Petacchi can do that - and there's no reason to think he can't - Hushovd would need a 2nd place finish to win green - which is unlikely given his consistently poor performance on the bunch sprints.  In other words, only a giant choke would stop Petacchi from winning the green jersey, and even if that happened, it would likely be Cavendish and not Hushovd winning the prize.

Now, two unfortunate events on Tour that we were hoping wouldn't have huge repercussions on the race have actually ended up becoming an issue (as least as far as drama goes).  The first is the peloton's decision to slow down in Stage 2 after many riders had fallen.  This would have been a great opportunity for Thor Hushovd to get 25 points for the stage win while his rivals were stuck behind by having to climb so close to the end of the stage.  Those 25 points would have put him in a 15 point lead at the moment, which he would have had a great chance of holding in Paris.  The second incident is the much-discussed Alberto Contador attack on Andy Schleck in Stage 15.  Contador gained 39" on Schleck that day, and things would have been interesting in the time trial if it was Schleck with a 31" lead instead of Contador with an 8" lead.  Of course, these unfortunate events did happen, and we can only speculate how things might have been had they not happened.  For example, Hushovd might not have tried to go on so many intermediate sprints, and Contador would definitely have attacked more on the Col de Tourmalet.

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Notable Stage Results

1	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	35 pts
2	Julian Dean	Garmin-Transitions	30 pts
3	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	26 pts
4	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	24 pts
5	Oscar Freire	Rabobank	22 pts
6	Edvald Boasson Hagen	Team Sky	20 pts
8	José Joaquin Rojas	Caisse D'Epargne	18 pts
14	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	12 pts

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Notable Points Standings

1	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	213 pts
2	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	203 pts
3	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	197 pts
4	José Joaquin Rojas	Caisse D'Epargne	167 pts
5	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	162 pts

*****

Stage 19 Preview

The last competitive stage for the GC riders this year is a time trial, unlike last year where the final competitive stage was a mountaintop finish.  The course is extremely flat, and at 52 km in length favors the pure time-triallists.  Alberto Contador surprised many last year by winning the Stage 18 time trial in Annecy.  However, that time trial was only 40.5 km and included a category-3 climb that made the course a little friendlier to GC riders.  This year, there will be none of those benefits, and it will all come down to pure power.  If Fabian Cancellara is on top of his game tomorrow, he should be able to win the stage convincingly.  What will be more interesting, though, is where the GC riders end up relative to each other.

For a large part, the GC has already been sorted out, but there will definitely some interesting battles going on tomorrow.  The most obvious is the battle for the yellow jersey between Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck.  In theory, Contador should get at least 1'30" on Schleck and extend his lead in the GC - but, you can never be sure what will happen.  By far the most interesting battle is for the third spot on the podium, which has been narrowed down to just two riders: Samuel Sanchez and Denis Menchov.  Sanchez is 21" seconds ahead of Menchov, but Menchov is historically the stronger time trial rider and can easily erase the deficit with a solid ride.  Sanchez, however, will have the luxury of starting after his rival.  This is an advantage for Sanchez because he will know Menchov's intermediate times beforehand (they will begin their rides three minutes apart) and can adjust his own pace accordingly.

The next biggest time gap between two riders in the top ten is 22", between 6th place Robert Gesink and 7th place Joaquin Rodriguez, who have both exceeded expectations this Tour.  Neither is a particularly great time trial rider, so it will come down to who is in better shape tomorrow.  Finally, we have the 25" gap between 9th place Roman Kreuziger and 10th place Chris Horner.  Kreuziger is the stronger rider and should end up in 9th place, but Horner has been surprising with his performance this Tour and can continue to surprise to claim the 9th spot.

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For full Stage 18 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 19, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website.  Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening.  Live coverage on Versus begins at 8:30 AM (ET).