The Tour is only two days away and it's time to wrap up the preview with a rundown of possible contenders for the polka-dot and white jerseys, along with the team classification.
*****
The King of the Mountains competition tends to be a little hard to predict, since the competition is affected by the action of the peloton and the GC contenders. Additionally, the multiple paths to victory tend to complicate the situation, as well as the occasional crossover of a pure climber into GC contention. Anyway, I'll just highlight a few of the potential winners.
With last year's polka-dot jersey winner Franco Pellizotti currently withheld from competition for suspicious blood values, a natural favorite for this year's competition would be last year's runner-up Egoi Martinez. His team, Euskaltel-Euskadi, often has great climbers who are not quite at the GC level. He and teammate Amets Txurruka - another jersey contender - will have to cooperate to make sure the polka-dot jersey doesn't go to another team.
The young winner of the 2004 Giro d'Italia never developed into the powerhouse he was once hyped to become. With new youngsters in Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck now in the spotlight, Damiano Cunego has all but disappeared from the top of the ladder. Never a strong time trial rider, Cunego would be aiming high by going for GC standing. However, he still is a strong enough climber to vie for the polka-dot jersey.
Contador will obviously make the yellow jersey victory his priority, but he remains a dark horse for the polka-dot jersey. GC contenders typically place high in the polka-dot jersey standings but rarely on top. Still, Contador can finish with both jerseys if there is excessive competition amongst the pure climbers. (Note: No rider has won both jerseys since Eddy Merckx in 1970. 2008 yellow jersey winner Carlos Sastre placed 2nd in the King of the Mountains competition, and polka-dot jersey winner Bernhard Kohl would later get his prize revoked for doping. However, Sastre has not retroactively been awarded the jersey.)
Others to watch
John Gadret (Ag2r-La Mondiale)
Joaquim Rodriguez (Team Katusha)
Amets Txurruka (Euskaltel-Euskadi)
*****
Young Rider Classification - White Jersey
The young rider classification is open to any rider born on or after 1984 and is based on GC standing. This year's white jersey race should be dominated by one rider, and the competition for the jersey can largely be ignored.
Andy Schleck (Team Saxo Bank)
Andy Schleck is expected to finish on the podium this year, and barring any devastating circumstances, he is a lock to win the white jersey. This year's Tour has no shortage of great young riders, but none of them are nearly of the same level as Schleck. Those riders will merely look to fulfill their duties as domestiques or #2 options. Sadly for the other young riders looking to win white, Schleck will still be eligible for the classification next year. Robert Gesink and Roman Kreuziger will have to wait until 2012 to battle for the white jersey, and perhaps they will be yellow jersey contenders by then as well.
Others to watch
Robert Gesink (Rabobank)
Roman Kreuziger (Liquigas-Doimo)
Tony Martin (Team HTC-Columbia)
*****
Team Classification
The team classification is based on the cumulative time of the top three riders from each team on each stage. Astana won convincingly last year, and with this year's Team RadioShack basically being last year's Astana minus Contador, they still have the depth and strength to win comfortably. Team Saxo Bank is always strong and dangerous and is the clear 2nd best team, but it would still be a huge surprise if they squeeze out the win.
Team RadioShack is a step above the rest because of the sheer number of elite riders they have. Lance Armstrong, Levi Leipheimer, and Andreas Kloden all have the skill to be a #1 option on any other team, and you can expect all three of them to be in the leaders' peloton. The team also has a very capable group of domestiques in Chris Horner, Yaroslav Popovych, and Janez Brajkovic, who can find themselves in a breakaway on any given day.
Team Saxo Bank is loaded with talent, but unlike Team RadioShack has "only" two GC contenders in Frank and Andy Schleck. Saxo Bank can count on time trial specialist Fabian Cancellara and the popular breakaway artist Jens Voigt for some stage wins, but ultimately the lack of a third consistent GC threat (previously Carlos Sastre) puts the team a huge step below Team RadioShack.
Others to watch
Astana (Key riders: Alberto Contador, Alexandre Vinokourov)
Liquigas-Doimo (Key riders: Ivan Basso, Roman Kreuziger)
*****
*****
Tomorrow is the eve of the Tour and will be beginning of my (ideally) daily updates. Tomorrow I'll make some predictions and preview the prologue, and on subsequent days I'll comment on the day's action and preview the following stage. Get ready!
No comments:
Post a Comment