Stage 9 Preview
After a day of rest, the Tour will pick right back up where it left off, with the second (and last) high mountains stage in the Alps. This stage will not likely be a battleground for the GC contenders because the 13 km flat section at the end of the stage will greatly reduce the time advantage of a rider going solo. However, we should see a great battle in the breakaway for mountains points, as this stage has a maximum of 83 points up for grabs. The final climb up the Col de la Madeleine alone is worth 40 points for the rider reaching the peak first (since the point values for the final climb in mountain stages are doubled), and since current polka-dot jersey holder Jérôme Pineau has just 44 points, there is a very good chance we will see someone new inheriting the jersey at the end of the day.
The first two-thirds of the stage are very rolling, which is ideal for the breakaway riders, who don't have to worry as much about aerodynamic advantages and can take the descents more aggressively. A 17 km flat segment separates the bottom of the Col des Saisies from the beginning of the climb up the Col de la Madeleine. Several counterattacks may form during the first climbs, with riders sacrificing points in the initial climbs in order to be in a better position to reach the peak of the final climb first, or to get the stage win. The final straightaway makes it difficult for a solo rider to stay ahead of the pack, but I still have a feeling that a rider from the first group up the Col de la Madeleine will emerge the stage winner, as the group counterattacking tactics may become shaky towards the end of the stage.
Expect many of those vying for the polka-dot jersey to form an early breakaway, though we will almost certainly see a lot of counterattacking before the riders reach the final climb. Meanwhile, the GC riders will probably go easy on each other, and only riders who "bonk" (i.e. Lance Armstrong in Stage 8) will be in trouble. For the stage win, I'll pick Damiano Cunego. The one hit wonder won the 2004 Giro d'Italia before basically falling off the map, and although he is still relatively young, he is already considered a has-been as far as contention for GC in Grand Tours. Lately, the Italian has been aiming for stage wins instead of GC, and so he deliberately gives up time in early stages to put himself out of GC contention, with the idea that he won't be immediately chased down if he were to join a breakaway. This stage's profile and timing is perfect for Cunego, who is still a great climber but probably has better sprinting capabilities than anyone else in contention for the stage win. Cunego would want to peak the Col de la Madeleine with a group and sprint for the stage win.
As for who will end up in polka-dots, it's hard to tell. Most of the contenders haven't emerged yet, and tomorrow's stage is really the first time we'll see who's in the running. It is certainly possible that Cunego could end up in polka-dots should he aim for the stage win - however, as far as I know, Cunego's main priority is the stage win. If he ends up in polka dots, we can probably consider him a contender for the King of the Mountains competition, because he is certainly capable of winning it.
*****
For more complete info on Stage 9, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website. Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening. Live coverage on Versus begins at 7:00 AM (ET).
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