TdF Commentary 7/9

Stage 6 Recap

Cavendish effortlessly wins back-to-back

Mark Cavendish has once again established himself as the man to beat on the sprints after a dominating performance today.  A breakaway of three riders was looking to be caught so early that two counterattackers were even able to make moves as the peloton lingered in striking range.  Ultimately, all five escapees were caught, setting up the seemingly inevitable bunch sprint finale.  Just like yesterday, Garmin-Transitions seemed to be in control, and leading to the final straightaway, Julian Dean and Tyler Farrar sat in the lead, with a gap over the HTC-Columbia tandem of Mark Renshaw and Mark Cavendish.  However, Renshaw would remove any doubt that he is the best leadout man on Tour, bursting forward to erase the gap and even overtake Dean.  This set up Cavendish for an easy sprint, which he won by over a bike length without even having to go at 100%.  The sprinters opened a gap and the peloton finished three seconds behind, but this doesn't significantly affect any of the GC standings.

Tyler Farrar still looked sluggish following his arm injury, but still managed to come in second.  It is clear, though, that in his current state, he is worlds behind Mark Cavendish.  Thor Hushovd was only able to place in tenth today, and all of a sudden, losing the green jersey looks very realistic now, with Alessandro Petacchi only four points behind, and the likes of Robbie McEwen, José Joaquin Rojas, Edvald Boasson Hagen, and even Mark Cavendish within striking range.  Hushovd will really have to pick up his game come the next round of sprints (between the Alps and Pyrenees), and the Lampre team will have to help pace Petacchi over the Alps within the time limit.  Oscar Freire has been invisible from all the sprint finishes, and it's likely that the events of Stage 2 have been affecting his performance.  At this point, he might be reserved to a role as a domestique for Denis Menchov and Robert Gesink, but then again, after a while he may be back in form to contend for some stage wins, especially on the slight uphill finishes that he prefers.

If we learned one thing today, it's that the Mark Renshaw / Mark Cavendish "shake-and-bake" is going to be very difficult to beat from here on.  Last year, Cavendish relied on a full sprint train, but this year even that won't be necessary.  The Garmin-Transitions sprint train looks solid, but Renshaw and Cavendish can keep up easily, and Tyler Farrar would have to be in top form to get a final burst big enough to shake off the Briton.  The Lampre-Farnese sprint train has been looking decent with several kilometers to go, but has always been overtaken by the Garmin and Columbia trains leading into the final stretches.  Alessandro Petacchi has had to ride the wheels of other teams, and this has put him at somewhat of a disadvantage.

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	35 pts
2	Tyler Farrar	Garmin-Transitions	30 pts
3	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	26 pts
4	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	24 pts
5	Gerald Ciolek	Milram	22 pts
7	José Joaquin Rojas	Caisse D'Epargne	19 pts
8	Edvald Boasson Hagen	Team Sky	18 pts
10	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	16 pts

*****

Notable Points Standings

1	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	118 pts
2	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	114 pts
3	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	105 pts
4	José Joaquin Rojas	Caisse D'Epargne	92 pts
5	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	85 pts
6	Edvald Boasson Hagen	Team Sky	82 pts
9	Gerald Ciolek	Milram	71 pts
11	Tyler Farrar	Garmin-Transitions	53 pts

*****

Stage 7 Preview

Tomorrow, the Tour finally hits the Alps, which this year has relatively tame stages compared to the beastly stages of the Pyrenees.  We start off the Tour's trip to the mountains with a medium mountains stage that should already begin to spice up the yellow and polka-dot jersey races.  By the end of the day, we'll almost certainly see someone new in polka dots, and it's also likely that someone new will end up in yellow as well.  So far, the top of the GC has consisted of the GC contenders along with good prologue riders and cobblestone riders.  After a few mountain stages, only good climbers will be left at the top of the ranks, with all other riders losing humongous chunks of time.

The riders will be eased into the mountains with a stage that doesn't have any climbs beyond category 2. Still, these climbs should be difficult enough that weaker climbers will be dropped by the peloton and form grupettos that will aim simply to finish within the time limit.  

Stage 7 has a quasi-summit finish, ending with 3 km of flat terrain after the peak category 2 climb.  This type of finish will likely eliminate the likes of Thor Hushovd from contention for points.  With another mountaintop finish in Stage 8 - and on a category 1 climb, no less - the GC contenders may not want to use up too much energy on this stage.  Nevertheless, it could be a useful opportunity to gain some precious seconds on rivals, and we may seem some interesting tactics, especially from Team RadioShack's three GC-level riders.

Look for breakaway riders to win the stage, the polka-dot jersey, and look for the yellow jersey to end up either with a breakaway rider or with Cadel Evans.  A rest day is coming up on Monday, so all of the King of the Mountains contenders will look join a breakaway either tomorrow or Sunday.  More points will be up for grabs on Sunday (55 vs. 51), but the GC riders will more likely be in the mix on Sunday, and the breakaway riders would have to open up a huge gap leading into the final climb (worth 30 of the 55 total points).  On the other hand, tomorrow's stage will more likely see the GC riders saving energy for sunday and conceding the stage win and mountains points to the breakaway.  Polka-dot jersey riders will have to decide whether Stage 7 or 8 better suits their skills and strategies.  The only real action among the yellow jersey riders should come on the final climb, but by then, the breakaway will likely already be destined for the stage win.

*****

For full Stage 6 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 7, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website.  Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening.  Live coverage on Versus begins at 7:30 AM (ET).