TdF Commentary 7/3

Prologue Recap

Cancellara dominates, Armstrong impresses, Wiggins disappoints

The story of the day was the weather.  Roads were damp the whole day, and rain fell for all but the beginning and the end of the prologue.  Early on, Tony Martin established a great time of 10'10" on the 8.9 km (5.5 mi) course, but as rain started pouring, riders became less aggressive.  The rain stopped with just a few riders left to start, and only the stage-favorite Fabian Cancellara - second to last out of the gate - would top Martin's time, topping it by a full 10 seconds for a finishing time of 10'00" and an average speed of 53.4 kmh (33.2 mph).

Once again, we will be treated to the familiar sight of the Swiss time-trial specialist wearing the first yellow jersey of the Tour.  For winning the stage, Cancellara also receives the green jersey, but since he will already be wearing yellow, and since second place finisher Martin will be wearing the white jersey, the honor of wearing green tomorrow will go to the third place finisher - British time-trial specialist David Millar.  The polka-dot jersey will not be worn tomorrow, as there were no rated climbs in the prologue.  In the team classification, Team RadioShack has already put itself into a very slight lead, but in a few days, another team can be expected to take a temporary lead with a breakaway victory on Stage 2.

With the roads wet, heavily painted, and twisting at some parts, many of the GC contenders were forced to play it safe due to the rain.  Only Lance Armstrong and Alberto Contador really got the chance to attack the course at full speed.  After an abysmal time trial in the recent Tour de Suisse and poor time-trialling in general as of late, Armstrong made a point with an impressive 4th place finish, 22 seconds behind Cancellara.  This puts the American hero neck-and-neck with arch-rival Contador to start off the Tour.  The defending champion finished 5 seconds behind Armstrong.

Particularly disappointing today was Bradley Wiggins, who was earlier considered to be a favorite to win the stage.  Instead, he already finds himself 34" behind Armstrong and 29" behind Contador.  Christian Vande Velde also turned in a sub-par performance today.  After crashing out of the Giro d'Italia and sustaining injuries, he can only hope that the first week of cycling will get him back into shape.  Frank Schleck and Andy Schleck turned in the mediocre performances we expected of them today.  The result really shows that they will have to be aggressive in the mountains and build a considerable lead over their rivals heading into the final time trial on Stage 19.

*****

Notable GC Standings

1	Fabian Cancellara	Team Saxo Bank	10'00"
2	Tony Martin	Team HTC-Columbia	+ 00'10"
3	David Millar	Garmin-Transitions	+ 00'20"
4	Lance Armstrong	Team RadioShack	+ 00'22"
6	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 00'27"
8	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 00'28"
17	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 00'36"
19	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 00'38"
20	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 00'38"
23	Cadel Evans	BMC Racing Team	+ 00'39"
70	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 00'54"
72	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 00'55"
74	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 00'56"
77	Bradley Wiggins	Team Sky	+ 00'56"
79	Frank Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 00'57"
92	Christian Vande Velde	Garmin-Transitions	+ 01'00"
122	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 01'09"

*****

Stage 1 Preview

June 17 was the 65th birthday of Eddy Merckx, widely considered to be the greatest and one of the most influential cyclists of all time.   As a kind of tribute to the Belgian legend, the 2010 Tour's first group start will finish in his home city of Brussels.  To summarize some of Merckx accomplishments:

• One of two cyclists to achieve the Triple Crown of Cycling (winning the Tour, Giro, and World Championships in the same year)
• One of five cyclists to have won all three Grand Tours (Tour, Giro, Vuelta)
• 11 total Grand Tour victories, the most by any cyclist (5 Tours, 5 Giros, 1 Vuelta)
• 525 career victories, most by any cyclist
• Only cyclist to win the yellow, green, and polka-dot jersey in a single TdF

Americans drool over Lance Armstrong's accomplishments, but in pure cycling terms, it's shameful to even think of comparing him with Merckx.

The flat profile of this stage means that we can expect a breakaway to be established early and caught late, resulting in a bunch sprint.  The peloton will travel along the Dutch coastline to begin the stage, where notoriously strong crosswinds could potentially break up the pack as they did in this year's Giro.  However, even in the case of a split, there should be ample time once the cyclists pass the Belgian border for the peloton to amalgamate.  We should most likely see a bunch sprint, with the stage victory and green jersey at stake.

Tomorrow is July 4, so I expect the Garmin-Transitions team to put in a little extra steam to assure a win for the young American Tyler Farrar.  If British superstar Mark Cavendish is back in 2009 shape, though, it will be difficult to pry a victory on any flat stage from him.

Still, in the spirit of the American Revolution, I will make an all-too-appropriate prediction by choosing Tyler Farrar to end the Briton's dominance on Tour.

*****

For full Prologue results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 1, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website.  Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening.  The stage will start at 5:45 AM (ET) and live coverage on Versus commences at 8:30 AM (ET).  However, the greatest action will begin to occur at around 10:45 AM (ET), close to the end of the stage.