TdF Commentary 7/16

Stage 12 Recap

Rodriguez takes victory after fast-paced day, Contador gains ten seconds on Schleck, Hushovd and Charteau reclaim green and polka-dot jerseys

As I had expected, today was a day filled with all kinds of action.  The pace was very fast from the start, and it wasn't until past 50 km that a successful escape was established.  This breakaway group was a large one containing 18 riders and contained Alexandre Vinokourov, Andreas Klöden, Ryder Hesjedal, Thor Hushovd, and Anthony Charteau.  Astana, Team RadioShack, and Garmin-Transitions were very smart to have strong riders in Vinokourov and Klöden in the breakaway (though as is always the case with "Vino," you have to question whether his attack was an order from the team or just another example of his maverick cycling).  The three riders were out of podium contention but could have been put back into the mix before the Pyrenees with a breakaway victory.  Thus, the peloton never eased up, with Andy Schleck's Team Saxo Bank doing almost all the work to reel in the breakaway.  The fast pace proved too much for some, including sprinter Tyler Farrar, who abandoned the Tour during the stage.

Thor Hushovd also had a great plan by getting in the breakaway to go for intermediate sprint points.  He contested the stage's two intermediate sprints with Alessandro Petacchi's teammate Gregor Bole (whose goal it was to limit how many points Hushovd could get).  Hushovd would place second and first, respectively, in the intermediate points to earn 10 points - enough to reclaim the green jersey.  This was a great break for Hushovd, who has not been performing well on the bunch sprints and needs to take points on as many opportunities as he can if he is to end the Tour with the green jersey.  Meanwhile, Jérôme Pineau's King of the Mountains rival thus far Anthony Charteau was also in the breakaway to try to rack up on some more mountain points.  The breakaway was first over three of the day's five climbs, and Charteau picked up 17 points on those climbs, reclaiming the polka-dot jersey, and having enough over a lead over Pineau that he should most likely hold onto the jersey until the Pyrenees.

Leading to the end of the stage, Alexandre Vinokourov, Andreas Klöden, Ryder Hesjedal, and Vasil Kiryienka surged ahead of the breakaway to go for the stage victory.  However, none of the leaders were able to shake off counterattackers once they hit the final ascent - a short but very steep climb up the Côte de la Croix-Neuve.  The most powerful attack was launched by podium contender Joaquin Rodriguez, who could only be matched by Alberto Contador.  The two caught Vinokourov with 2 km to go after passing all the other escapees, and Rodriguez sprinted for the stage win.  The last climb was tailor-made for Contador, and Andy Schleck and the other GC contenders paced themselves up the climb to limit their losses.

In the end, there were many time gaps, but none of them were huge.  There was some shakeup in the GC though.  Joaquin Rodriguez with his impressive stage win steals the 8th spot from Luis-Leon Sanchez, Roman Kreuziger overtakes his teammate Ivan Basso for 10th, and Alexandre Vinokourov now sits at 12th over Ryder Hesjedal.  Team RadioShack's solid performance today also gives them the lead in the team classification.  Caisse D'Epargne has been their only remaining competitor since several days ago, and the two teams have done their best to match each other (i.e. in breakaways).  In theory, Team RadioShack should be able to extend their lead in the mountains and hold the yellow dossards all the way until Paris.

If Rodriguez hadn't launched his late attack, we may have seen Contador just stay back with the rest of the group, because 1) he is happy with his position now and wants to save up for the Pyrenees and time trial and 2) his teammate Alexander Vinokourov would have gotten the stage win.  While today's performance shows that Alberto Contador at this point is still the guy to beat, it doesn't necessarily take away from Andy Schleck's chances - today's climb was just not for him, and he did well in limiting his loss to ten seconds.  As the race hits the longer climbs of the Pyrenees, we'll be able to see who's really the better climber.

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	4h58'26"
2	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 00'00"
3	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 00'04"
4	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 00'10"
5	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 00'10"
6	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 00'10"
7	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 00'10"
8	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 00'10"
9	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 00'15"
10	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 00'15"
11	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 00'17"
16	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 00'31"
19	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 00'31"
24	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 00'53"

*****

Notable GC Standings

1	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	58h42'01"
2	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 00'31"
3	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 02'45"
4	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 02'58"
5	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 03'31"
6	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 04'06"
7	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 04'27"
8	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 04'58"
9	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 05'02"
10	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 05'16"
11	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 05'30"
12	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 06'25"
13	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 06'25"

*****

Stage 13 Preview

Just like Stage 2, Stage 13 has a category-3 climb very close to the finish, and hopefully the peloton won't have to go through the ugly events of Stage 2 again.  Instead, I expect the typical breakaway followed by a chase led by Thor Hushovd's Cervélo TestTeam.  Many of the other sprinters will not be able to keep up with the fast pace up the final climb and will find themselves out of contention for the sprint.  Hushovd needs to place well on this stage if he wants to hold onto the green jersey, as the only remaining point opportunities are Stages 18 and 20 - which favor the pure sprinters.  Cervélo TestTeam will need to make sure the breakaway doesn't get away, and they will need to make a pace towards the end at a speed such that Hushovd can keep up, but the other sprinters cannot.  With that being said, I'll predict that the now desperate Thor Hushovd will indeed get the win and solidify his lead on the green jersey race.

*****

For full Stage 12 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 13, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website.  Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening.  Live coverage on Versus begins at 8:30 AM (ET).