Stage 17 Preview
Just looking at the profile of this stage is intimidating. This stage will be the biggest GC battleground of the whole Tour, and it's easy to see why. The final climb up the Col du Tourmalet is steep - which is perfect for attacking - and long - which is perfect for translating those attacks into huge time gaps. Whereas we've only seen gaps of a minute or less among any pair of GC riders on the same "level" (i.e. going for yellow, going for podium, going for top give, going for top ten), we can expect to see some gaps perhaps reaching two minutes or more opening up from a successful attack up the final climb.
The Col du Tourmalet is the most frequently used pass on Tour and is probably the most famous Pyrenean climb in the history of the Tour de France. In terms of legendary status, it is probably only surpassed by the Alpe d'Huez. Thus, it's only appropriate that on the celebration of the races 100th year in the Pyrenees, that the race passes through the Tourmalet twice and ends its final mountain stage on its peak, marking the 50th time the riders have made the ascent on cycling's most prestigious race.
The ascent is a grueling 18.6 km at 7.5%, which is made even more difficult by the fact that the climb steepens instead of flattening out towards the top. These types of finishes tend to be won by one of the top GC contenders, who will discharge just about all their energy. The riders will have a very flat stage following this before going into the decisive time trial, but riding at 100% on this climb is crucial, and the race could be decided today. If Alberto Contador gains time, matches, or even loses just a little bit of time on Andy Schleck, the Tour will pretty much be decided in Contador's favor. However, if Schleck can get at least 100 seconds on Contador, he may experience the "yellow jersey effect," in which he rides the time trial of his life to hang onto the overall prize. The battle for the podium will be just as exciting as the battle between Contador and Schleck, and if the two leaders attack early on the climb, the rest of the pack may just let them go at it alone and focus on the battle amongst themselves.
Expect Anthony Charteau and Christophe Moreau to make early attacks and try to claim points on the first three climbs. Any other rider looking to win the polka-dot jersey will need lots of points from the Col de Tourmalet. However, expect the GC contenders to be at the front of the race by the first half of the final climb. The lead group should be diminished to only the strongest riders, one of whom will likely get the stage win. Such was not the case in last year's equivalent stage, ending atop the more difficult Mont Ventoux, but by then the race had essentially been decided, with Alberto Contador having a full 4'11" advantage over Andy Schleck. This year, we still have a time trial after the mountains, so the GC contenders - especially the relatively weak time triallists like Schleck - can't afford to ride passively. They will need to gain every second they can, and their fast pace will make a stage win by anyone other than the strongest of riders extremely difficult.
Contador and Schleck are naturally the two favorites to win the stage, and I'll have to root for the underdog, Andy Schleck, to gain a good amount of time on Contador. Before his chain-slipping incident in Stage 15, Schleck actually looked to be nearly unstoppable, with Contador being caught by Menchov and Sanchez while on the attack. But I'll admit that this prediction is mostly due to being sour from Contador's attack on Stage 15. As far as the battle for third, I'll go with Denis Menchov getting enough time on Samuel Sanchez to be in a comfortable position leading to the Stage 19 time trial - as on paper, Menchov is the superior time trial rider. And in the King of the Mountains competition, it seems like more people seem to favor Christophe Moreau to win the polka-dot jersey, even though he is 15 points behind Anthony Charteau. Moreau is the better climber on any given day, but Charteau has built up his lead by making moves on many stages. My gut feeling is that Charteau will hold out for the win, but I'll be rooting for Moreau - who is the oldest rider on the Tour (Jens Voigt is second oldest and Lance Armstrong is third). Prepare for an exciting finish to the mountains of this year's Tour de France!
The ascent is a grueling 18.6 km at 7.5%, which is made even more difficult by the fact that the climb steepens instead of flattening out towards the top. These types of finishes tend to be won by one of the top GC contenders, who will discharge just about all their energy. The riders will have a very flat stage following this before going into the decisive time trial, but riding at 100% on this climb is crucial, and the race could be decided today. If Alberto Contador gains time, matches, or even loses just a little bit of time on Andy Schleck, the Tour will pretty much be decided in Contador's favor. However, if Schleck can get at least 100 seconds on Contador, he may experience the "yellow jersey effect," in which he rides the time trial of his life to hang onto the overall prize. The battle for the podium will be just as exciting as the battle between Contador and Schleck, and if the two leaders attack early on the climb, the rest of the pack may just let them go at it alone and focus on the battle amongst themselves.
Expect Anthony Charteau and Christophe Moreau to make early attacks and try to claim points on the first three climbs. Any other rider looking to win the polka-dot jersey will need lots of points from the Col de Tourmalet. However, expect the GC contenders to be at the front of the race by the first half of the final climb. The lead group should be diminished to only the strongest riders, one of whom will likely get the stage win. Such was not the case in last year's equivalent stage, ending atop the more difficult Mont Ventoux, but by then the race had essentially been decided, with Alberto Contador having a full 4'11" advantage over Andy Schleck. This year, we still have a time trial after the mountains, so the GC contenders - especially the relatively weak time triallists like Schleck - can't afford to ride passively. They will need to gain every second they can, and their fast pace will make a stage win by anyone other than the strongest of riders extremely difficult.
Contador and Schleck are naturally the two favorites to win the stage, and I'll have to root for the underdog, Andy Schleck, to gain a good amount of time on Contador. Before his chain-slipping incident in Stage 15, Schleck actually looked to be nearly unstoppable, with Contador being caught by Menchov and Sanchez while on the attack. But I'll admit that this prediction is mostly due to being sour from Contador's attack on Stage 15. As far as the battle for third, I'll go with Denis Menchov getting enough time on Samuel Sanchez to be in a comfortable position leading to the Stage 19 time trial - as on paper, Menchov is the superior time trial rider. And in the King of the Mountains competition, it seems like more people seem to favor Christophe Moreau to win the polka-dot jersey, even though he is 15 points behind Anthony Charteau. Moreau is the better climber on any given day, but Charteau has built up his lead by making moves on many stages. My gut feeling is that Charteau will hold out for the win, but I'll be rooting for Moreau - who is the oldest rider on the Tour (Jens Voigt is second oldest and Lance Armstrong is third). Prepare for an exciting finish to the mountains of this year's Tour de France!
*****
For more complete info on Stage 17 and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website. Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening. Live coverage on Versus begins at 6:30 AM (ET).
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