TdF Commentary 7/18

Stage 14 Recap

Riblon sustains long breakaway for France's 4th win on Tour, GC field thins out but top of the ranks remain stagnant

On a stage where the expected outcome was for the initial breakaway to get caught, Christophe Riblon defied all odds and held off the peloton for the stage victory on the top of the Ax 3 Domaines.  Riblon was part of the initial nine-man breakaway that the peloton set on letting go, and it would have been expected that the breakaway would use so much energy maintaining their lead on the flat portion that they would completely deflate once the stage hit the two very difficult climbs.  Very quickly the group of nine diminished to just three as riders had difficulty keeping up on the climb.  Then eventually the three became just one, and the peloton was able to pass all the breakaway riders except for the eventual stage victor, even though he began the climbs with just a four-minute advantage over the peloton.  Riblon's stage win is the fourth this year for France, who are overachieving this year in an era where cycling is dominated by riders from other countries while France waits for their next Bernard Hinault or Laurent Fignon.

Meanwhile, the story of the peloton was yet again Astana.  Alberto Contador's team once again pushed the pace of the peloton as they chased the leaders, and the team probably led the peloton for almost all of the second half of today's stage.  The pace of the chase was unexpectedly fast on the flat, and once the peloton reached the beginning of the Port de Palhères, the fast pace quickly began to take its toll on the peloton, and the group diminished to about 30 within a matter of a few minutes.  A few attacks were launched on the peloton, including ones by Carlos Sastre and Rafael Valls, as they looked to pass Riblon for the stage victory.  None of the attackers were threats to the top ranks of the GC and so the peloton saw no reason to chase.  Unfortunately for the attackers, they weren't able to really build a lead of more than about 30" on the peloton, and Christophe Riblon was having the ride of his life to hold on for the stage win.  As a consolation, Valls got 14 mountains points on the Port de Palhères, reaching the top of the climb before the peloton, which was attacked by polka-dot jersey holder Anthony Charteau for 8 points, with Damiano Cunego and Christophe Moreau sprinting at the top for 7 and 6 points, respectively.  There is still a long way to go in the King of the Mountains competition, but Charteau, Valls, Cunego, and Moreau are all among the top contenders for the prize.

Once again on the climbs it was Astana setting the tempo in the front of the peloton, in an effort to stretch out the group and possibly drop a few rivals leading into the final climb up the Ax 3 Domaines.  It was the final push by Astana's Alexandre Vinokourov at the base of the Ax 3 Domaines that really shattered the group, somewhat surprisingly dropping some GC contenders like Ivan Basso, Roman Kreuziger, Levi Leipheimer, and Robert Gesink.  Gesink would eventually fight his way back into the peloton, but all the others saw themselves losing time to the peloton, which was reduced to just seven riders by the end of Vinokourov's shift up front.

To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Alberto Contador launched an attack on the final climb.  Andy Schleck was able to stay on Contador's wheel the whole time, and the rest of the lead peloton chased down the two right after.  Contador would then launch another attack that was only matched by Schleck, Denis Menchov, and Samuel Sanchez.  The second biggest surprise of the day (after Riblon's victory) was an odd decision by Contador and Schleck to slow down (at one point almost to a full stop) and mark each other.  The two realize that no one else can compete for the top two GC spots, and so, realizing that neither will get time on the other today, they decided to slow down and save energy for the difficult stages ahead.  However, at the time of their deceleration, they were in a group consisting of only the top four GC riders, and giving up time could have meant (in a worst-case scenario) someone like Menchov or Sanchez all of a sudden being in the running for the yellow jersey.  Presumably, after a while they realized that they couldn't afford to lose too much time to Menchov and Sanchez, and both worked back into the chase group containing Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Joaquin Rodriguez, and Robert Gesink.

Meanwhile, just up ahead was a heated battle between Denis Menchov and Samuel Sanchez, who was ahead of Menchov by just 13" in the battle for third place.  Menchov looked scary with his aggression and with a couple of attacks was able to get a gap of about seven or eight seconds on Sanchez.  Sanchez was able to keep Menchov within sight though, and once they reached the top of the climb, Sanchez was able to catch Menchov on the 1.3 km flat segment between the peak and the finish line.  The Contador/Schleck group finished 14" behind and minimized their losses to Menchov and Sanchez, while other GC hopefuls trickled into the finish.

Unsurprisingly, the GC battle is heating up, and with three very difficult stages ahead there is sure to be lots of excitement.  In the battle for yellow, while Andy Schleck is currently wearing the jersey, the advantage remains with Alberto Contador, who can easily erase at least a minute off Schleck's lead in the time trial alone.  The contest for third is no less exciting, but quickly it's looking like Denis Menchov and Samuel Sanchez are a notch above the rest of the pack.  There is a long way to go though, and we could still be seeing a six-way battle for third (Sanchez, Menchov, Van Den Broeck, Gesink, Leipheimer, Rodriguez).  The rest of the GC riders will have to just ride for their paychecks and compete for a top five or top ten finish.  In the GC standings, Menchov and Sanchez inch closer to Contador and Schleck, but it's unlikely we'll see the two leaders slow down enough to give up their lead.  The other significant movements in the GC standings are Levi Leipheimer's drop from 6th to 7th after getting dropped from the lead group today, and Roman Kreuziger falling two spots to 12th.  Because we'll see a lot of GC action for the next few days, I'll expand the "Notable GC Standings" to include at least the top 15 every day in the Pyrenees.

Likewise, there is sure to be a ton of action in the King of the Mountains competition, and while Anthony Charteau is in polka dots now, his lead is deceptive and can easily be erased in one day.  With a maximum of 226 mountains points up for grabs in the Pyrenees (63 tomorrow, 90 in Stage 16, and 73 in Stage 17), the competition is still wide open, and some of the top competitors for the prize may still be very low in the current standings.  It will most likely come down to Stage 16, which not only has 90 points at stake, but also the added benefit of not having the GC contenders in the mix, as is rather likely to be the case on the final climbs of Stages 15 and 17, each worth 40 points.  Because of all the movement that will occur, I'm also expanding the "Notable Mountains Standings" to include the top 10 mountains points holders, other than GC riders out of the top 3 in the KotM competition.

In other news, the team competition remains a tight two-way race between Team RadioShack and Caisse D'Epargne.  Caisse D'Epargne had a great day today, with three riders in the top 16, while RadioShack had their three riders in the top 22.  Caisse D'Epargne now once again takes the lead, with an eight second advantage over their rivals.  Caisse D'Epargne has been riding inexplicably great, and RadioShack, which initially looked like a team with four possible GC options, now actually looks quite weak in the mountains.  Today's top three finishers from RadioShack were, in order, Levi Leipheimer, Chris Horner, and Andreas Klöden.  Meanwhile, Lance Armstrong and Jani Brajkovic both soft-pedaled to the finish 15'14" behind.  This should be alarming to Team RadioShack because while Horner is known for being a solid and consistent rider, he should still be the team's fifth option, and to compete against Caisse D'Epargne as they are riding now, RadioShack will need to have everybody except for Horner pick up their game.

And also, while today was most certainly a mountains stage, as I mentioned yesterday, it did end up having a big impact on the green jersey race in the form of Thor Hushovd's inability to join the breakaway and claim intermediate sprint points.  Hushovd can still potentially pick up 12 points on intermediate sprints in the mountains, but now he'll have to join two breakaways (on Stages 15 and 17) to do that, whereas those 12 points could have easily been won by a single breakaway on today's stage.  Hushovd has shown no indication whatsoever that he can beat or even come close to matching green jersey holder Alessandro Petacchi on the bunch sprints, and at this point all Petacchi has to do to win the overall prize is just to not mess up big time on the presumed bunch sprints on Stages 18 and 20.

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Christophe Riblon	AG2R La Mondiale	4h52'42"
2	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 00'54"
3	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 00'54"
4	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 01'08"
5	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 01'08"
6	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 01'08"
7	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 01'08"
8	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 01'08"
10	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 01'49"
11	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 01'53"
12	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 02'00"
13	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 02'00"
14	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 02'02"
18	Nicolas Roche	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 02'27"
21	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 02'30"
28	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 03'03"

*****

Notable GC Standings

1	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	68h02'30"
2	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 00'31"
3	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 02'31"
4	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 02'44"
5	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 03'31"
6	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 04'27"
7	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 04'51"
8	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 04'58"
9	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 05'56"
10	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 06'52"
11	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 07'04"
12	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 07'11"
13	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 07'17"
14	Nicolas Roche	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 08'03"
15	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 08'15"

*****

Notable Mountains Results

1	Christophe Riblon	AG2R La Mondiale	50 pts
2	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	26 pts
3	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	22 pts
8	Rafael Valls	Footon-Servetto	14 pts
10	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	12 pts
14	Anthony Charteau	BBox Bouygues Telecom	8 pts
15	Damiano Cunego	Lampre-Farnese	7 pts
16	Christophe Moreau	Caisse D'Epargne	6 pts

*****

Notable Mountains Standings

1	Anthony Charteau	BBox Bouygues Telecom	115 pts
2	Jérôme Pineau	Quick Step	92 pts
3	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	76 pts
5	Christophe Moreau	Caisse D'Epargne	68 pts
6	Mario Aerts	Omega Pharma-Lotto	65 pts
7	Damiano Cunego	Lampre-Farnese	63 pts
9	Christophe Riblon	AG2R La Mondiale	60 pts
10	Sandy Casar	FDJ	56 pts
12	Sylvain Chavanel	Quick Step	47 pts
14	Rafael Valls	Footon-Servetto	46 pts

*****

Stage 15 Preview

Tomorrow's stage is back-heavy like today's stage, and just like today we can expect an early breakaway to claim mountains points on the first three climbs before losing steam on the 19.3 km climb up the Port de Balès.  While the stage isn't a mountaintop finish, it will still be a GC battleground because the stage ends with a descent after a difficult climb.  Without any "buffer zone" of a flat segment or easier climb, the peloton won't have enough opportunity to chase down any solo attacker.  Because the GC riders will likely be going at a fast pace, this is somewhat likely to be a stage to be won by the peloton, whether it be a GC rider or a climber who sticks with the group and attacks on the final climb or even on the descent.  But hey, nobody thought the initial breakaway would succeed in Stage 14 and look what happened.

The descent is perfect for Samuel Sanchez, arguably the sport's most skilled descender, and of course this will be a great opportunity for Sanchez to get some time on his podium rival Denis Menchov.  To win the stage, Sanchez will probably have to attack on the Port de Balès get out of the line of sight of his rivals on the descent.  Of course, Sanchez does have the ability to open up a gap on the descent should the peloton reach the top of the climb as a group, or even make up some time in case he falls behind.  However, the ideal situation for him is to be alone, so that his rivals won't be able to ride his slipstream or follow his line.  If Sanchez can stay out of sight, he can easily extend his lead, as those lagging behind won't be able to see what lines he's taking and will take the descent more slowly.

Thus, I'll go with the obvious choice and choose Samuel Sanchez to win the stage.  The likes of Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck will probably want to save their energy for the brutal climb up the Col de Tourmalet on the mountaintop finish of Stage 17.  The two will just want to minimize their losses and keep Sanchez out of striking distance should the third-place rider successfully attack.  For Sanchez, though, this stage suits his strengths exactly, and he can't miss this opportunity to potentially widen the gap between himself and Menchov, and possibly even put himself in the running for the yellow jersey.  It would probably be in Sanchez's interests to attack tomorrow, even if he still has Stage 17 to save up for.

*****

For full Stage 14 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 15, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website.  Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening.  Live coverage on Versus begins at 7:30 AM (ET).