2010 Tour de France Preview: The Contenders, Part 1

The Tour is starting in just a couple days!  Let's continue getting prepared by running down the list of potential contenders for the Tour's top prizes.  Today we'll introduce the yellow and green jersey contenders.

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General Classification - Yellow Jersey

It's one of those Tours where one man is heavily favored to win the yellow jersey.  The rest of the field, especially those on stronger teams, may try to use cunning tactics to try to steal the top spot.  Other top riders might merely aim for a Top 3 finish for a spot on the revered podium in Paris.

Alberto Contador (Astana)

The winner of the 2007 and 2009 Tours de France would have been a favorite to win the 2008 Tour had his team been eligible to race, and is a heavy favorite to win this year's edition.  Contador's climbing skills are beyond compare, and his time-trialling has developed to an elite level.  His team won't be the strongest, and Contador has been battling the flu lately, but he is still the man to beat.

Andy Schleck (Team Saxo Bank)

Last year's runner-up and two-time white jersey winner will look to improve his standing this year.  His mediocre time trial skills will be helped by the presence of only one long time trial in this year's course.  He may by now have the ability to keep up with Contador, but must be more aggressive than that to emerge victorious.  Fortunately, he has a solid team and a nearly-as-dangerous teammate in his older brother Frank, and can perhaps devise some tactics to shake off the champion.

Lance Armstrong (Team RadioShack)

After an impressive podium finish in last year's Tour during a sudden comeback, Lance will now have a longer period of training behind his back and should be more prepared for this year's Tour.  At the age of 38, his climbing skills and especially time-trialling skills have unsurprisingly not been at the level of his glory days.  However, his recent second place finish at this year's Tour de Suisse may be an indicator that he's in good shape.  He'll also have an incredibly deep team to help him out, or to take over should he fall behind.

Ivan Basso (Liquigas-Doimo)

The winner of the Giro d'Italia in 2006 and 2010 is aiming high this year by riding in both the Giro and the Tour.  Not many cyclists dare ride two Grand Tours back-to-back, and the last person to win both the Giro and the Tour was fellow Italian Marco Pantani back in 1998.  While the victory in this year's Giro showed that Basso is still among cycling's elite, whether he will have enough left in the tank for the Tour is still a mystery.

Cadel Evans (BMC Racing Team)

Year after year, Cadel Evans has finished close to the top, but has never won the Tour.  His participation in the year's Giro may be an indication that he may not be aiming so high this year, with Contador being so dominant.  Evans is an outstanding time-triallist, but has a reputation for riding extremely passively on the mountains.  He can no longer rely on his time trial abilities on this year's course, which only has one stage of the kind.

Denis Menchov (Rabobank)

Menchov has had a similar history to Cadel Evans, always coming close to the win but falling short.  He has won the Giro d'Italia and twice won the Vuelta a España, but hasn't gotten the same results on the Tour.  With the competition getting stronger, and with his team dividing their attention between him and sprinter Oscar Freire, it could be a tough road ahead for the Russian.

Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky)

The track-cycling phenom surprised everyone last year by showing that he could climb with the best, leading to a 4th place finish on the Tour.  This year, Wiggins will look to remove any doubt that last year's result was a fluke.  His new team is relatively weak, but the time trial is as flat as a velodrome and should feel familiar to the Briton, who may be a wild card this year for a podium finish.

Others to watch

Frank Schleck (Team Saxo Bank)

Andreas Kloden (Team RadioShack)

Levi Leipheimer (Team RadioShack)

Robert Gesink (Rabobank)

Samuel Sanchez (Euskaltel-Euskadi)

Jani Brajkovic (Team RadioShack)

Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana)

Roman Kreuziger (Liquigas-Doimo)

Carlos Sastre (Cervélo TestTeam)

Christian Vande Velde (Garmin-Transitions)

Tony Martin (Team HTC-Columbia)

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Points Classification - Green Jersey

Last year, Mark Cavendish made a statement by establishing himself as the dominant pure sprinter on Tour.  However, it was Thor Hushovd who quietly won the green jersey by winning points on stages that weren't prototypically set up for bunch sprints.  This year, the question will largely be the same, with the contenders being a mix of pure sprinters, who go blazing fast on the flats but get dropped by the peloton on the climbs, and what I call "hybrid sprinters," who can consistently place high on bunch sprints but can also keep with the peloton on climbs.

Mark Cavendish (Team HTC-Columbia)

The young Briton's meteoric rise culminated in an incredible six stage wins in last year's Tour de France.  While Cavendish's main target was stage wins, he may have won the green jersey had it not have been for eventual winner Thor Hushovd's ability to grab points on steeper stages.  Cavendish's performance this year has not been as dominant as last year, but he remains a favorite to win most of the flat stages on Tour, and one of the top contenders for the green jersey.

Thor Hushovd (Cervélo TestTeam)

The recipient of last year's green jersey won the prize through consistency - staying with the pack on flat stages with climbs near the end, and riding aggressively on intermediate levels.  While he wasn't the fastest pure sprinter, he placed high on every sprint and grabbed points on the most stages.  If he wants to win the green jersey this year, he will have to follow a similar approach, as we can expect Cavendish, if in top shape, to win just about every traditional sprint finish.

Oscar Freire (Rabobank)

The winner of the green jersey in 2008 has a similar riding style to Thor Hushovd.  The Spaniard has the ability to stay with the pack on lesser climbs, and even to hold his own in a breakaway.  He is also notoriously adept at sprints with a slight uphill incline.  Freire will have to try to take advantage of these particular sprints, and will have to ride just as aggressively as Hushovd to have a shot at green.

Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Transitions)

The young American has been fast-rising in the sprinting ranks, but at this point is a kind of poor man's Cavendish.  Farrar is a pure sprinter who may be able to get a very high standing in most traditional sprint stages and may win a stage or two.  However, he will have an extremely difficult time outscoring Cavendish on a consistent basis, and his only shot at the green jersey would realistically happen if Cavendish gives up in the mountains.

Others to watch

Edvald Boasson Hagen (Team Sky)

Robbie McEwen (Team Katusha)

Gerald Ciolek (Team Milram)

Jose Joaquin Rojas (Caisse d'Epargne)

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Tomorrow, we'll wrap up the Tour preview with a rundown of the contenders for the polka-dot jersey, white jersey, and team classification.

2010 Tour de France Preview: The Course

With my 100th post on this blog (!), we'll start off my preview of the 2010 Tour de France with an overview and cursory analysis of the course, and a rundown of the key stages of the race for the yellow, green, and polka-dot jersey contenders.

This year's course will run clockwise, which means the race will pass first through the Alps, then through the Pyrenees.  Notable in the course this year is the presence of only one full-length time trial (Stage 19) as opposed to the usual two, and the first appearance of extended sections of cobblestones (Stage 3) on Tour in quite a while.  Only two high-mountain stages are in the Alps this year, and both are relatively easy.  On the other hand, there will be four high-mountain stages in the Pyrenees, three of which can have major implications on the general classification.

Let's now take a look at the key stages for the yellow, green, and polka-dot jersey competitions.  For all the info about this year's course, check out the race preview on the official Tour de France website.

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Key Stages - Yellow Jersey

Stage 3 (July 6)

Although this is a flat stage, the multiple long cobblestone sections can create chaos at any moment.  In 2004, a gigantic crash on a short cobbled section meant the end of the Tour for then-contender Iban Mayo.  Riders will need to be careful (and lucky) to avoid crashes.  The peloton may also find itself splitting up as riders have trouble negotiating the cobbles (which can be as difficult as climbs).  Teams with riders experienced with cobbles will look to protect their GC rider, or perhaps even try to split the peloton.  If all goes well, this stage should end in a bunch sprint, but really anything can happen.

Stage 8 (July 11)

The first mountain stage of the Tour doesn't have any HC climbs and overall is relatively tame for the Alps.  However, it has a mountaintop finish, and so it's automatically a GC battleground.  Riders may want to attack here if they sense any rustiness in their rivals, or if they want to send a message.  The most important GC stage will almost undoubtedly be Stage 17, but contenders may look to use some energy to grab a few seconds on this one.

Stage 14 (July 18)

Just as the first stage in the Alps has a mountaintop finish, so does the first stage in the unforgiving Pyrenees.  Because the flat section between the last two climbs is short, GC contenders will start making their moves on the climb up the Port de Pailhères and will try to maintain a gap leading into the final climb using an aggressive descent.

Stage 15 (July 19)

While this stage doesn't have a mountaintop finish, we may see some attacking on the Port de Balès, because of the very brief flat segment to end the stage.  Note also that this stage comes immediately after another competitive stage, so riders will want to budget their energy very carefully between Stages 14 and 15.

Stage 17 (July 22)

You can probably tell from the picture alone that Stage 17 should be the granddaddy stage of the Tour.  This stage comes immediately after a rest day, and riders should be well prepared for the famous climb up the Col du Tourmalet.  This will actually be the second time the riders make the ascent in the 2010 Tour, as the climb is also made in the middle of Stage 16.  The climb is a grueling 11.6 miles at a 7.5% grade (that equals a climb of 4577 feet).  You can expect to see tons of aggressive riding from the best of the Tour's climbers.

Stage 19 (July 24)

The final time trial is as flat as a pancake, and riders will look to make a final push to improve their spot on the GC.  I expect the Top 3 to pretty much be decided by the end of Stage 17, but if the time gaps are small enough (within 1 or 2 minutes), this time trial can be very important.

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Key Stages - Green Jersey

Stages 1, 4, 5, 6, 11, 18, and 20 are pretty much tailor-made for sprinters, so in those stages we can expect to see bunch sprints for the full 35 points, or in the case of a successful breakaway, a sprint for partial credit.  Let's highlight the stages that aren't prototypical sprinters' stages but can have an impact on the green jersey race.

Stage 2 (July 5)

A climb near the end of an otherwise flattish stage is a nightmare for a pure sprinter and a blessing for those sprinters who can stay with the peloton on the easy climbs.  Sprinters who get dropped by the peloton on the final climb will have to rush to get back to the front of the group if they want to claim any points on a stage that is already likely to be won by a breakaway.

Stage 3 (July 6)

This stage can be as scary for the sprinters as it is for the GC contenders.  Green jersey contenders must make sure to avoid crashing and to stay near the front of the pack, in case the peloton splits.  The final cobbled section ends just 8 km from the finish and can create some extremely dangerous situations if the peloton is already moving at full speed by then.  If the sprinters' teams push the peloton less aggressively, we could see a breakaway win, with the sprinters having to fight for partial credit.

Stage 10 (July 14)

On the Bastille Day stage, we can expect a victory by a breakaway composed largely of Frenchmen.  However, the sprinters who don't fall too far behind on the climb (like Hushovd or Freire) will find the descents at the end of the stage helpful in getting the best possible stage position.  Most other sprinters will fall very far behind at the first climb and may just aim to finish within the time limit.

Stage 13 (July 17)

Another stage with a climb near the finish.  By this point in the race, sprinters will have an idea of who the top contenders are and what they need to do for the rest of the race.  We could see some sprinters in need of points attempt to get on a breakaway, though the course should be flat enough for rival teams to keep them under control.  Either way, sprinters with decent climbing legs will ride aggressively towards the end.  Count on a breakaway victory, but don't be surprised to see several sprinters grabbing points.

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Key Stages - Polka-Dot Jersey

Stage 9 (July 13)

For polka-dot jersey contenders who want to use the strategy of going all out on one entire stage, this isn't the best one to do so (Stage 16 is), but Stage 9 can be worth it.  King of the Mountains contenders will try to at least grab the category 1 and 2 climbs.  The GC riders will probably take it easy on this stage because of the extended flat portion to end the stage, so polka-dot jersey competitors may be interested in trying to take the HC climb up the Col de la Madeleine.  Whether use all the energy to sustain an attack through the entire stage will be up to their discretion, though.  Alternatively, we may see riders aiming primarily at other stages stay with the pack until the final climb, where they will try to pass the leaders and steal the points.

Stage 16 (July 20)

This stage can be very interesting for the polka-dot jersey competition.  We will likely see one or more riders attempt a breakaway from the very start to try to get the points for these high-valued climbs.  This breakaway, if successful, can even result in a stage victory if the attackers can maintain their lead on the descent.

Stage 17 (July 22)

The climb up the Col de Tourmalet will be for the yellow jersey competitors, but the polka-dot jersey riders can go for the category 1 climbs.  Depending on the pace of the GC contenders, the polka-dot jersey riders may even have a shot at being the first up the final climb.  This stage comes after the key Stage 16, but with a day of rest, riders who weren't as aggressive on Stage 16 may be ready to be aggressive on Stage 17.

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During the race, I'll post more detailed previews of each stage, put into the context of the standings and state of the race at that point.  The other portion of the race preview will overview the contenders for the yellow, green, polka-dot, and white jersey competitions, as well as the team classification.  This will come in either one or two installments, depending on how long it ends up being.

Tour de France Blog Series: Part 5

At last we've reached the last installment of this exciting blog series!  This post completes my primer on cycling and the Tour de France.  For the first four parts of the blog series, follow these links:

1. Introduction
2. TdF Classifications & Cycling as a Team Sport
3. Fundamental Cycling Tactics
4. TdF Stage Types & Single-Day Strategies

This final chapter is very short and will focus on overarching strategies that teams and individuals will employ over the course of the entire three weeks of racing as they compete for the prestigious colored jerseys.  So without further ado...

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To win any of the jerseys in the Tour de France requires not only a strong rider, but also a well-planned strategy.  A cyclist has a limited amount of energy he can expend over the course of three weeks, as well as a limit to what he can do over a shorter period of time before having to take it easy.  Therefore, a cyclist and his team's directeur sportif will study the Tour's course to determine what the rider should do on each stage.

Before commenting on these strategies - a word on the general profile of the Tour.  The Tour begins with a short time trial called a prologue, though in a few cases such as last year, a full-length time trial will be used.  Following the prologue, the Tour's general profile is: flat, mountain, flat, mountain, flat - with intermediate stages and time trials typically placed between flat stages and mountain stages.  Because the final stage of the Tour is non-competitive (by tradition) except for the final sprint, the penultimate stage tends to either be a time trial or mountaintop finish, so as to create tons of tension on that last day of real competition.

Back to the strategies.  In general, the flat stages will be battlegrounds for sprinters (green jersey), while the mountains will be where the GC contenders (yellow jersey) and climbers (polka-dot jersey) duke it out.  On the high mountains, most sprinters will struggle and merely aim to finish before the time limit (if you finish too far behind the stage winner, you are eliminated).  Similarly, yellow and polka-dot jersey contenders will play it safe on the flats and simply aim to conserve energy and not crash.  GC contenders will pick their spots to be aggressive, but since these spots are the same for all the GC contenders most of the time, this creates some exciting competition.  The polka-dot jersey competition is hardest to predict because of the large number of ways one can go about winning the jersey.  Contenders for the polka-dot jersey will pick what climbs to be aggressive on, but other contenders may have different ideas to the best path to victory.

While there are general trends we'll see as far as overall race strategy, explaining these strategies thoroughly is extremely difficult because the course changes every year, and the strategies to be employed depends highly on the nature of the course.  The fact that the course and strategies change every year is for me what makes the Tour so intriguing to follow.

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For now, I'll conclude this blog series.  The next post or two will be a preview of this year's course.  I'll make an analysis and comment on possible routes to victory for each of the three major jersey competitions.  Hopefully, the comments made then will be more helpful than the generalizations made in this post.

Tour de France Blog Series: Part 4

We're beginning to wrap up this blog series, and hopefully part 1, part 2, and part 3 of this blog series have been enjoyable reads.  Hopefully, you're also beginning to understand some of the things that make the Tour de France so awesome to follow.  Now that we've gone over some of the basic tactics applied in cycling, let's learn about all the different types of stages found in the Tour de France, and the strategies teams will employ in each type.

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Time Trials

Time trials are stages in which cyclists race against the clock to try to achieve as fast a time as possible.  Instead of a so-called "group start," competitors start riding the course one at a time, staggered a few minutes apart.  Drafting is not allowed, and thus equipment and special riding positions are used that will make the cyclist as aerodynamic as possible.  There is not much tactical racing in time trials, especially in a team sense; instead, riders are familiar with their abilities and will choose an optimal pace to ride the course.  Familiarity with the course is important for GC contenders, and so, domestiques riding the course at an earlier time will often provide reconnaissance.  Beyond the task of budgeting energy though, time trials don't have the strategies that we'll see in group stages.  Nevertheless, time trials are extremely important for GC contenders, since time gaps are always created, and riders do not have the luxury of merely coasting in a peloton and finishing with the same time as their rivals.

In cycling, there are two types of time trials: individual time trials (ITTs) and team time trials (TTTs).  The concept of the ITT is rather self-explanatory, and the Tour de France usually has 1-2 ITTs, in addition to a prologue, which is a very short ITT on the first day of the Tour.  In a TTT, an entire team will race together and are allowed to draft off each other (but not off other teams).  Riders will take turns doing the work, then peeling off to the back of the group, with the length of their shifts dependent on their individual time-trialling ability (stronger riders will spend more time at the front).  The team's time is determined by the finish time of the team's 5th rider.  Thus, a team will often make a push towards the end of the stage that would drop their weaker riders.  This year's Tour does not have a TTT, and the TTT is only found on the Tour once every few years.  This is probably because of the main argument against the TTT, which is that GC contenders with relatively weak teams are at a disadvantage.  But part of what makes the Tour exciting is that there is always something different every year, so adding a TTT once in a while is good in my book.

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Flat Stages

First, a word on mountain gradings.  The climbs on Tour are categorized, in order of increasing difficulty: category 4, 3, 2, 1, and HC (hors categorie - beyond category).  A flat stage will typically only have climbs of category 4 and 3, if any at all.  This makes it relatively easy for riders to avoid getting dropped by the peloton (i.e. falling behind).  Additionally, flat stages are worth the most points in the race for the green jersey, so it is the ideal time for sprinters to try to rack up some points.  However, flat stages can also be good opportunities for riders to make a successful breakaway.

Stage 4 of this year's Tour - a flat stage tailor made for the sprinters

A pure sprinter's heaven is a flat stage with no climbs near the finish.  At the beginning of the stage, riders looking for the stage win via breakaway will begin to attack the peloton.  The peloton will then continue to catch the attackers until it is satisfied with what riders are in the breakaway group.  Basically, the peloton will try to have the breakaway consist of cyclists who have a low chance of holding on for the win.  For example, a breakaway containing a GC contender will be gobbled up by the peloton almost immediately because the threat is too high.  Therefore, GC contenders will not even waste their energy being part of a breakaway in anything but a mountain stage.  Once "the breakaway" is established, teams with elite sprinters looking for the stage win will slow the peloton down to extend the breakaway's lead.  This is usually a good time for riders to "answer the call of nature" (yes, while riding their bike).

Why let the breakaway gain ground?  Creating a large gap between the peloton and the breakaway will discourage counterattacks, in which riders will attack the peloton and try to catch up with or pass the breakaway.  When the peloton is 10+ minutes behind the breakaway, a counterattack basically has zero chance of success.  As the competitors get closer to the end of the stage, the sprinters' teams will move back to the front of the peloton and start pushing the pace.  The increased speed of the peloton makes it much more difficult to attack, and the goal of the sprinters' teams is to catch the breakaway as late as possible (within the last 1-2 km) and while going as fast as possible.  The peloton's high speed approaching the finish will ensure a bunch sprint, where the sprinters will duke it out in the last couple hundred meters for green jersey points and the stage win.

Elite sprinting teams will sometimes use a leadout train, where domestiques will take turns at the front of the pack and use all their energy to push the pace as much as possible, then peel off.  This conserves the lead sprinter's energy and culminates in the sprinter having a very fast speed even before his burst of acceleration.  Alternatively, a sprinter may just wheel suck until the final stretch, but because the person in the lead is not able to draft, winning sprints is all about knowing when it's too early or too late to take the lead.  In any case, the conclusions of flat stages are always filled with tension and exciting to watch, in some cases because of the sprinters, and in others because the breakaway gets a second wind and manages to hold off the pack.

When there is a climb near the end of the stage, sprinters will often fall to the back of the peloton and be out of contention for the stage win.  These stages are conducive to breakaway victories and follow a dynamic similar to intermediate stages (explained in the next section), though sometimes a sprinter with decent climbing legs like last year's green jersey winner Thor Hushovd can avoid losing too much ground and grab some points by placing in the top 25 at the finish.  In fact, this is basically how Hushovd stole the green jersey over a much, much better pure sprinter in Mark Cavendish.

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Intermediate Stages

Stage 7 of this year's Tour - an "intermediate" stage

Intermediate stages typically are littered with mountains up to category 2 (with the occasional category 1) and are almost always won by a breakaway rider.  Sprinters will be dropped by the main peloton, and GC contenders will merely aim to stay in the peloton and hold ground against their rivals.  Depending on the stage's profile, you might see some early attacks by riders looking to win the polka-dot jersey or just wear it for a couple of days as they try to get points off the reasonably valuable category 2 climbs.  Eventually, a breakaway group tends to form, even if there are polka-dot jersey competitors ahead, as these riders will typically fall back to the peloton anyway after claiming their points.

In intermediate stages, the peloton's decision on whether or not to let the breakaway go will tend to be made by the teams looking to win the team classification.  The breakaway will either consist only of riders from non-competitive teams, or will have equal representation from all the interested teams (for example, one rider each), so as to not lose time on the team standings.  Any team unhappy with the makeup of the breakaway will either try to push the peloton and catch the attackers, or alternatively will try send one or more riders to the lead group in a counterattack.

In essentially all cases, all of the riders allowed on the breakaway are considered non-threats to the GC, and those uninterested in the stage win will conserve energy and ride it out with the peloton.  The excitement in the intermediate stages tends to lie in the front pack, where riders will work hard to avoid getting dropped by the breakaway, and will eventually sprint against each other for the stage win.  The breakaway group will often have such a large lead over the peloton that on the final sprint, they will employ so-called "cat and mouse" tactics, which is a strategy ubiquitous in sprint cycling on a track, but not usable in the context of a bunch sprint on a flat stage.  Because the leaders will not want to be the one in front at the start of the sprint, they will often slow down tremendously (and sometimes even come to a near standstill!).  Once a cyclist feels like he's at the ideal distance from the finish, he will make a quick burst of acceleration and make his sprint.  The other cyclists will then try to ride his slipstream and make the pass before the finish.

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Mountain Stages

Stage 9 of this year's Tour - just looking at this diagram is scary

Mountain stages contain climbs of all categories, and are the primary battlefields for those vying for the yellow jersey and king of the mountains competitions, as well as those riders with good climbing legs looking for a stage win.  As is the case with intermediate stages, riders looking to win the polka-dot jersey will attack early to try to accumulate mountain points.  If they think they can get the stage win, they'll keep going ahead, getting more mountain points along the way, but more often they will lose energy and drop back to the peloton or even farther behind.

This year's beastly Stage 17 - guaranteed action on the final climb

About half of the mountain stages in the tour have mountaintop finishes, which are where the GC contenders will make their biggest moves.  (Recall that mountaintop finishes result in the largest time gaps because rivals can't use the descent following the climb to gain back precious seconds.)  On stages without mountaintop finishes, the GC contenders still do make attacks - especially on the more difficult stages - to try to get rivals to crack, but it must be kept in mind that the returns in the form of time gaps will be diminished.  As far as stage victories go, many mountain stage wins will still go to breakaway riders.  Only on the most difficult of mountain stages and on mountaintop finishes do you really see GC contenders getting the stage win.  This happens because the breakaway moves much slower than the GC contenders, who are no longer conserving their energy.

While it's exciting to see a breakaway succeed on the mountain stages, the excitement is not always at the front of the pack, but at the GC contenders.  The traditional strategy is for all the top riders to race in the same peloton, then make attacks on climbs to try to drop their rivals (make them fall behind the peloton).  Sometimes, the whole group will be able to react and stay together, but sometimes one or more riders will not have the energy to respond, and will find himself riding alone, or with a smaller group.  This makes life very difficult for them should they still find themselves behind the leaders' group at the bottom of the descent, as they no longer have the larger peloton to draft off.

Some of the teams with multiple elite climbers will start using some more aggressive strategies that are beyond the scope of this blog series, and in some cases even beyond the scope of my understanding.  But basically, teams will use their double (or triple) threats to their advantage, as other teams' #1 riders will start having to react to moves by deeper teams' #2 riders.  This year, we can expect some of these moves from teams like Astana (with two top riders in Contador and Vinokourov), Saxo Bank (with the Schleck brothers), and RadioShack (with the trifecta of Armstrong, Leipheimer, and Kloden).

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Wow, this was a long post.  Anyway, we have just one more post left (a much shorter one), and then you'll know pretty much everything I know about the Tour de France.  After this primer, I'll be making a couple posts with a preview of this year's Tour.  In particular, I'll be commenting on this year's route and top contenders.  I may even make some predictions!  Finally, once the Tour gets under way on July 3, I'll periodically update with some commentary of finished stages and previews of upcoming stages.  Until next time!

Tour de France Blog Series: Part 3

Hello and welcome to part 3 of my Tour de France blog series. If you haven't done so yet, please take a look at part 1 and part 2 - otherwise this entry might be a little confusing. This entry will highlight some basic concepts in cycling tactics, which are applicable in cycling group races of all levels.

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Drafting and Attacking

What sets cycling apart tactically from some other racing sports such as running is the concept of drafting. While riding a well-tuned bike on flat ground, the most significant source of energy (i.e. speed) loss is air resistance. This is unlike running, where much of the energy a runner exerts is ultimately absorbed by the ground, meaning a runner cannot "coast" the same way a cyclist can. When an object such as a cyclist moves forward, it moves air out of the way. Thus, the area immediately behind the cyclist - called a slipstream - has less air, and thus less air resistance. A cyclist will often draft behind another cyclist by riding very closely behind another cyclist.

On flat ground, a cyclist can use 40% less energy by drafting, and it is relatively easy to chase anyone while riding in their slipstream. Because of this, a cyclist who wants to get a lead on another cyclist can only do so with a quick burst of acceleration - called an attack - such that by the time he reacts, the opposing cyclist will be too far behind to take advantage of the slipstream. Ultimately, in a group race, acceleration is more important than speed. This concept becomes extremely important in group races, where riders begin racing all together and can ride as a pack. Conversely, it also explains why good time-trialling (where drafting is not allowed) is a different skill from good group racing; in time trials, it is speed and aerodynamics that are key.

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The Peloton

Now that we've learned what happens when one cyclist rides behind another, let's get into what happens when you have not just two but many dozens of cyclists. A peloton is essentially many cyclists riding in a bunch. When the peloton is in formation, riders at the very front are "doing the work" while all the others draft behind. Typically, riders will take turns doing the work, then "peel off" to put someone else in front. Therefore, it follows logically that, on average, riders in a larger peloton will use less effort than riders in a smaller peloton. Similarly, a larger peloton can more easily move faster and chase down a smaller group ahead.

Now here is where team-related tactics come into play. Because the riders in front control the pace of the peloton, a team or a group of teams can push to the front of the pack and increase or decrease the speed of the peloton depending on their strategy (more to come on when and why a team would increase or decrease pace). On the other hand, a team with no concern about the peloton's speed can choose to conserve energy by never coming to the front.

Riding near the front of the peloton is important for team leaders. The most obvious reason is that if the peloton splits up, the contenders don't want to be stuck in the back and lose time (recall that all riders in the same peloton receive the same time at the end of the stage). Additionally, if a crash occurs, riders near the front will be in less danger, as they will have fewer fallen riders to avoid. For these reasons, the back of the peloton will often be populated with domestiques.

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Breakaways: Attacking the Peloton

As we will learn later in more detail, if the peloton sticks together on a flat stage, the race will favor sprinters who will conserve as much energy as possible and go all out in the last few hundred meters.  Thus, all those non-sprinters who want a shot at winning a flat stage must eventually become part of a breakaway.  A breakaway occurs when one or more cyclists launch an attack on the rest of the peloton, forming a smaller group of their own ahead of the main peloton.  The riders on a breakaway, while ultimately competing against each other, must cooperate by sharing turns doing the work and not resorting to so-called "cat and mouse" tactics.  Occasionally, a cyclist will practice "wheel sucking" by constantly drafting and never moving to the front to do the work, then using all his conserved energy to steal the stage victory with a sprint at the finish.  Not only is this practice selfish and frowned upon - it also increases the chances that the breakaway will fail.  However, one in a breakaway might "wheel suck" in an acceptable fashion if he has no interest in the breakaway's success.

The dynamics of a breakaway are different in a stage race like the Tour de France as opposed to a single-day race, and this is because the objective of a single-day race is to finish in first, while in a stage race, there are different classifications to compete in, and furthermore cyclists must budget their energy over many days.  In a single-day race, whenever an attack happens, riders must decide whether the attackers are threats to win, or whether they will tire out and get caught.  This judgment will determine whether they should join the breakaway or stay with the peloton.  Eventually, multiple splits in the peloton will occur until a winner is crowned.  In a stage race, conserving energy is important, so teams aiming for more than just individual stage victories will usually adopt strategies that will give them the most returns for the least effort.  These strategies will be explained more in parts 4 and 5 of this blog series.

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Ascents and Descents

Drafting is most important on flat ground, where it saves a cyclist the most energy.  However, while going uphill, the main factor slowing the cyclist down changes from air resistance to gravity.  Thus, the effects of drafting are greatly diminished on a climb, and accordingly, the peloton will usually crumble on the tall mountains.  However, if possible, cyclists will often tend to ride in a pack anyway to make pacing and reacting to opponent's moves easier.  While the heavier riders fall behind, the GC contenders will usually form a lead peloton where they will make repeated attacks on each other to try to cause rivals to fall behind.

On descents, the bike will naturally accelerate even if the cyclist does not exert any energy, so drafting does not really give any additional advantages.  However, cyclists will often form a paceline to minimize the risk of crashing.  While the peloton will tend to split on climbs, it will tend to reform on the descents that follow.  Riders can catch up to those ahead of them if they dare do so by adopting a more aerodynamic position.  On descents, gaining ground becomes less related to energy output and more to aerodynamics and technique.  Therefore, even poor climbers can sometimes catch up to the group on a descent.  Additionally, on the flat ground at the bottom of a descent, attacking riders will then again be at a disadvantage compared to the peloton.  These are the reasons the GC contenders will almost always make their biggest moves on stages with mountaintop finishes, or stages that end on descents - so as to maximize time gaps.

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In part 4, we'll learn about all the different types of stages found in the Tour, and the strategies that are typically used for each type of stage.  Then in part 5, we'll wrap up this primer with some insight on long-term strategies that teams adopt in order to produce a winner.  Until then, thank you for reading!

Tour de France Blog Series: Part 2

Welcome to part 2 of 5 of my blog series about the Tour de France and the complex and exciting strategies involved in cycling stage races. For part 1 of the blog series, click here.

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The Tour's Classifications

As mentioned in part 1 of this blog series, much of the complex dynamic in the Tour comes from the fact that different teams aim to win different classifications (i.e. competitions). Obviously then, it's important to know what all the different classifications are.

The general classification (GC) is by far the most prestigious of the race and is based on cumulative individual time. Prototypical contenders for the GC tend to be elite climbers with above-average time trial skills. Sprinting skills are not as important, because it's inefficient to try to open up a time gap on a flat stage, and because all riders who are in the same bunch (called a peloton) receive the same time at the end of the stage, even if the back of the peloton crosses the finish line several seconds after the front. The winner receives the much-desired yellow jersey (maillot jaune) and a very hefty sum of money.

The points classification is typically contested by sprint specialists and is based on points awarded according to placing on each stage. In the GC, it's the time gaps between you and your competitors that is more important, but in the points classification, the time gaps are unimportant and it's all about placing. Additionally, while GC contenders typically make their moves in the mountains where their increased efforts translate more directly to a larger time gap, sprinters excel on flat stages (which give more points for this classification than do mountain stages). The contenders in the points classification are typically heavier riders who can generate a lot of speed on flat ground because of their brute strength but struggle in the mountains because of their weight. Thus, these riders are rarely contenders for the yellow jersey and often do not even finish the Tour. The winner, who is the rider with the most cumulative points, will receive the green jersey (maillot vert).

The king of the mountains competition is a points competition where points are awarded to the riders who are first up each individual mountain, as opposed to the end of each stage. Riders who vie for this jersey must obviously be good climbers, but they typically don't have the time-trialling ability to aim for the yellow jersey or are just a notch below the GC contenders. Conversely, GC riders typically conserve their energy for mountaintop finishes (where the stage finish is on a climb) because it translates to larger time gaps and thus tend to only be marginally competitive in the king of the mountains competition. Riders going for the win in this classification will try to rack up points on mountain stages that don't have a mountaintop finish, where the GC riders will be uninterested in keeping up. However, to excel in this competition basically requires the rider to expend energy at all the wrong times when it comes to placing well in the GC, and thus going for this jersey would put the rider at a serious disadvantage in the GC. The rider with the most cumulative mountain points is the winner and is awarded the polka-dotted jersey (maillot à pois rouges).

The young rider classification is similar to the general classification, but it only counts riders who are under the age of 26. The winner is awarded the white jersey (maillot blanc). Because athletes tend to peak around the age of 30, only once in a while is a young rider a real competitor for the yellow jersey. For example, while this year, two-time white jersey winner Andy Schleck is 25 and is the #2 favorite to win the competition, and while #1 favorite Alberto Contador won the Tour in 2007 at the age of 24, more often the white jersey winner comes in 10th-20th place overall. Because GC contender Andy Schleck is still eligible in the young rider competition and should be a shoo-in to win it, we'll probably see the young riders simply battle for GC standing instead of employing tactics to gain time specifically against other young riders.

The team classification is based on cumulative team time. On every stage, the times of the first three riders from each team are added up and this makes the team time for that stage. These three riders can change from stage to stage. This classification rewards teams with depth and aggressive riders, and while this particular contest isn't as prestigious as the yellow, green, and polka-dotted jersey competitions, it does create some interesting dynamic when it comes to breakaways (this concept will be defined and elaborated on later).

An unofficial honor called the lanterne rouge is given to the rider who completes the race and comes in last place. The honor is given because the rider is on the saddle (i.e. suffering) for the longest time, but still manages to finish the entire race without dropping out. Additionally, lanterne rouge winners gain a little bit of notoriety in the cycling community, and sometimes get better salaries than those who finish slightly ahead of them because of this.

In addition to these overall prizes, there are other honors riders compete for over the course of the Tour. Individual stage victories come with a certain honor (and some cash). Teams that don't really have a contender for the big prizes (usually the wild-card teams) often aim for individual stage wins because aiming higher would be unrealistic. These teams will often have riders try to get on breakaways. Depending on the profile of the stage, stronger teams may deem it to be inefficient to try to chase down these overall non-contenders. However, even if the breakaway riders fail to stay ahead of the rest of the pack, a combativity award (and some money) is given after every stage for the most aggressive rider of the stage. Additionally, at the end of the Tour, an overall combativity award is given to the most aggressive rider of the entire Tour. This award usually goes not to the overall GC contenders, but to the lesser names who repeatedly try to get individual stage wins, and can result in higher paychecks, as by being aggressive the rider gets their team (and therefore their sponsors) more TV coverage.

Finally, because the colored jerseys are worn at every stage by the cumulative leaders in the respective categories, riders who are not realistically in contention for the overall individual prizes will just bike for the honor of getting a colored jersey at some point in the race and holding on to it for as long as they can. For example, because the GC contenders typically don't start making their moves until the second week of the race, the yellow jersey is often held by the winner of the prologue (a short time trial to begin the race) or an aggressive breakaway racer. Similarly, riders will try to hold on to the polka-dotted jersey by attacking on the easier mountains in the first week of the race before the real contenders start battling when the race hits the taller mountains with higher point values.

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Cycling As a Team Sport

To maximize the chances of achieving its goal, a team must have a good structure and a cooperative dynamic. Having the top 9 GC contenders in the world on the same team will not result in victory if the riders are competing against each other instead of cooperating with each other. Thus, the prototypical team structure will have a single leader surrounded by eight domestiques (helpers), whose job it is to work selflessly to maximize their leader's potential.

[Note: Anything that may be unclear here will hopefully be explained in subsequent entries in this blog series.]

For example, on a basic level, a domestique might have the duties of:

1. Periodically obtaining food and drink from the team car and delivering it to the team.
2. Giving up a tire or his bike to the team leader should the leader have mechanical issues. (The domestique then waits himself for the team car to get a replacement bike.)
3. Using his own energy to pace the team leader back to the peloton should he fall behind due to a flat tire or some other issue.
4. Shielding the team leader from other riders to prevent him from crashing.
5. Riding in front of the team leader, creating a slipstream for him.

On a more tactical level, domestiques can:

1. Move to the front of the peloton and increase or decrease the speed of the pack according to the team's interests.
2. Chase down breakaways should they threaten the team's standing in the team classification, or should the team be interested in setting up a bunch sprint at the finish.
3. Repeatedly attack the peloton (i.e. start a breakaway) with the intention of tiring out a rival team.
4. Pace the team leader on climbs and block rivals from attacking.
5. Set up a "sprint train" to make the final sprint faster and less dangerous for their team leader (more on this later).

Occasionally a team will have more than one leader - for example, a GC contender and a sprint specialist. It is rare, however, for both leaders to win their respective competitions because the effort of the domestiques is more efficiently expended on the goals of one leader. In other cases, teams with exceptional depth may have a #2 rider ready to assume the team leader role should the leader fall behind.

In addition to the nine riders that each team sends to each event, teams also have members who play critical roles without riding bikes. Arguably the most important during the race itself is the directeur sportif - the cycling race equivalent of a coach/manager - who rides in the team car and is in charge of creating the team's race strategy, as well as communicating with the riders during the race through radio. Thanks to modern technology, teams are always aware of the race situation (such as the time gaps separating all the riders), and directeurs sportif can always adjust the strategy accordingly and relay it to the riders.

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In the next blog post, we'll start getting into some of the basic tactics in cycling before getting into the more complex strategies that are more specific to stage races like the Tour de France. I hope that so far this has been helpful and not too confusing!