With my 100th post on this blog (!), we'll start off my preview of the 2010 Tour de France with an overview and cursory analysis of the course, and a rundown of the key stages of the race for the yellow, green, and polka-dot jersey contenders.
This year's course will run clockwise, which means the race will pass first through the Alps, then through the Pyrenees. Notable in the course this year is the presence of only one full-length time trial (Stage 19) as opposed to the usual two, and the first appearance of extended sections of cobblestones (Stage 3) on Tour in quite a while. Only two high-mountain stages are in the Alps this year, and both are relatively easy. On the other hand, there will be four high-mountain stages in the Pyrenees, three of which can have major implications on the general classification.
Let's now take a look at the key stages for the yellow, green, and polka-dot jersey competitions. For all the info about this year's course, check out the race preview on the official Tour de France website.
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Key Stages - Yellow Jersey
Stage 3 (July 6)
Although this is a flat stage, the multiple long cobblestone sections can create chaos at any moment. In 2004, a gigantic crash on a short cobbled section meant the end of the Tour for then-contender Iban Mayo. Riders will need to be careful (and lucky) to avoid crashes. The peloton may also find itself splitting up as riders have trouble negotiating the cobbles (which can be as difficult as climbs). Teams with riders experienced with cobbles will look to protect their GC rider, or perhaps even try to split the peloton. If all goes well, this stage should end in a bunch sprint, but really anything can happen.
Stage 8 (July 11)
The first mountain stage of the Tour doesn't have any HC climbs and overall is relatively tame for the Alps. However, it has a mountaintop finish, and so it's automatically a GC battleground. Riders may want to attack here if they sense any rustiness in their rivals, or if they want to send a message. The most important GC stage will almost undoubtedly be Stage 17, but contenders may look to use some energy to grab a few seconds on this one.
Stage 14 (July 18)
Just as the first stage in the Alps has a mountaintop finish, so does the first stage in the unforgiving Pyrenees. Because the flat section between the last two climbs is short, GC contenders will start making their moves on the climb up the Port de Pailhères and will try to maintain a gap leading into the final climb using an aggressive descent.
Stage 15 (July 19)
While this stage doesn't have a mountaintop finish, we may see some attacking on the Port de Balès, because of the very brief flat segment to end the stage. Note also that this stage comes immediately after another competitive stage, so riders will want to budget their energy very carefully between Stages 14 and 15.
Stage 17 (July 22)
You can probably tell from the picture alone that Stage 17 should be the granddaddy stage of the Tour. This stage comes immediately after a rest day, and riders should be well prepared for the famous climb up the Col du Tourmalet. This will actually be the second time the riders make the ascent in the 2010 Tour, as the climb is also made in the middle of Stage 16. The climb is a grueling 11.6 miles at a 7.5% grade (that equals a climb of 4577 feet). You can expect to see tons of aggressive riding from the best of the Tour's climbers.
Stage 19 (July 24)
The final time trial is as flat as a pancake, and riders will look to make a final push to improve their spot on the GC. I expect the Top 3 to pretty much be decided by the end of Stage 17, but if the time gaps are small enough (within 1 or 2 minutes), this time trial can be very important.
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Key Stages - Green Jersey
Stages 1, 4, 5, 6, 11, 18, and 20 are pretty much tailor-made for sprinters, so in those stages we can expect to see bunch sprints for the full 35 points, or in the case of a successful breakaway, a sprint for partial credit. Let's highlight the stages that aren't prototypical sprinters' stages but can have an impact on the green jersey race.
Stage 2 (July 5)
A climb near the end of an otherwise flattish stage is a nightmare for a pure sprinter and a blessing for those sprinters who can stay with the peloton on the easy climbs. Sprinters who get dropped by the peloton on the final climb will have to rush to get back to the front of the group if they want to claim any points on a stage that is already likely to be won by a breakaway.
Stage 3 (July 6)
This stage can be as scary for the sprinters as it is for the GC contenders. Green jersey contenders must make sure to avoid crashing and to stay near the front of the pack, in case the peloton splits. The final cobbled section ends just 8 km from the finish and can create some extremely dangerous situations if the peloton is already moving at full speed by then. If the sprinters' teams push the peloton less aggressively, we could see a breakaway win, with the sprinters having to fight for partial credit.
Stage 10 (July 14)
On the Bastille Day stage, we can expect a victory by a breakaway composed largely of Frenchmen. However, the sprinters who don't fall too far behind on the climb (like Hushovd or Freire) will find the descents at the end of the stage helpful in getting the best possible stage position. Most other sprinters will fall very far behind at the first climb and may just aim to finish within the time limit.
Stage 13 (July 17)
Another stage with a climb near the finish. By this point in the race, sprinters will have an idea of who the top contenders are and what they need to do for the rest of the race. We could see some sprinters in need of points attempt to get on a breakaway, though the course should be flat enough for rival teams to keep them under control. Either way, sprinters with decent climbing legs will ride aggressively towards the end. Count on a breakaway victory, but don't be surprised to see several sprinters grabbing points.
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Key Stages - Polka-Dot Jersey
Stage 9 (July 13)
For polka-dot jersey contenders who want to use the strategy of going all out on one entire stage, this isn't the best one to do so (Stage 16 is), but Stage 9 can be worth it. King of the Mountains contenders will try to at least grab the category 1 and 2 climbs. The GC riders will probably take it easy on this stage because of the extended flat portion to end the stage, so polka-dot jersey competitors may be interested in trying to take the HC climb up the Col de la Madeleine. Whether use all the energy to sustain an attack through the entire stage will be up to their discretion, though. Alternatively, we may see riders aiming primarily at other stages stay with the pack until the final climb, where they will try to pass the leaders and steal the points.
Stage 16 (July 20)
This stage can be very interesting for the polka-dot jersey competition. We will likely see one or more riders attempt a breakaway from the very start to try to get the points for these high-valued climbs. This breakaway, if successful, can even result in a stage victory if the attackers can maintain their lead on the descent.
Stage 17 (July 22)
The climb up the Col de Tourmalet will be for the yellow jersey competitors, but the polka-dot jersey riders can go for the category 1 climbs. Depending on the pace of the GC contenders, the polka-dot jersey riders may even have a shot at being the first up the final climb. This stage comes after the key Stage 16, but with a day of rest, riders who weren't as aggressive on Stage 16 may be ready to be aggressive on Stage 17.
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During the race, I'll post more detailed previews of each stage, put into the context of the standings and state of the race at that point. The other portion of the race preview will overview the contenders for the yellow, green, polka-dot, and white jersey competitions, as well as the team classification. This will come in either one or two installments, depending on how long it ends up being.
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