TdF Commentary 7/22

Stage 17 Recap

Schleck wins stage but Contador finishes right behind to keep yellow, Sanchez crashes hard but gains time on Menchov, Charteau is the winner of the polka-dot jersey

The only thing more daunting than climbing the Col de Tourmalet is climbing the Col de Tourmalet in the rain and fog.  After a Tour de France filled with all kinds of bad luck, the riders had to race to most important GC stage of the race on slick roads with low visibility.  As expected, the peloton rode easy until the Col de Tourmalet, and only then did the GC riders break into all out battle.  A seven-man breakaway formed, none of whom were contenders for the polka-dot jersey.  The peloton was content with the composition of the breakaway and quickly slowed down for a bathroom break in order to extend the lead.

Things were looking very scary for Samuel Sanchez, who crashed hard early in the stage and was on the ground for over a minute.  Thankfully, he had landed on his sternum (and not his collarbone), and he was just simply out of breath.  He was paced back with the help of his teammates to the peloton, which had slowed down as a courtesy to the GC contender.  This was far from the ideal situation for the winner of the Astana-less 2008 Tour de France Carlos Sastre, who had been looking for a stage win the mountains for a while.  Sastre's plan was to attack on the first category-1 climb of the day and ideally use his superior climbing to catch the breakaway on his own.  However, because the peloton had slowed down to wait for Sanchez, the gap between the peloton and the leaders would have been too big for a successful counterattack.  The upset Sastre refused to wait with the peloton and launched his attack 20 km before the Col de Marie-Blanque.  Sastre was never able to catch the leaders, largely because he needed to expend a lot of energy to maintain a solo attack on the flats, and eventually he was caught and dropped by the peloton at the beginning of the final climb, as the peloton began to accelerate and chase down the tiring leaders.

With a seven-man breakaway plus the Carlos Sastre counterattack all ahead of the peloton for most of the stage, the situation was perfect for Anthony Charteau, who was looking merely to defend a close lead over Christophe Moreau in the polka-dot jersey race.  As points are awarded only to the first eight riders on the category-1 climbs, Charteau didn't have to worry at all about losing points on those climbs.  Additionally, because the stage ended with a summit finish, those points typically go to GC riders, so Charteau didn't have to worry too much about the final climb either.  In the end, Charteau and Moreau both ended the day without any mountain points, and since this was the final stage with any mountain points, all Anthony Charteau needs to do to wear the polka-dot jersey in Paris is to complete the race - a relatively easy task with just two flat stages and a time trial remaining.

A bizarre incident occurred in the peloton on the second to last climb of the day.  As the peloton was ascending the Col du Soulor, a flock of sheep ran in front of the group, halting them to a standstill for a few seconds.  Thankfully the peloton was climbing instead of descending or riding the flats, as they were easily able to react and stop without any accidents.  Especially during a time where the peloton was riding fast to stretch out the group leading into the Tourmalet, a high-speed accident at the front could have taken down a quarter of the group (as was pretty much the case in Stage 1) - and the odd thing is that in these incidents involving bikers hitting animals, the riders always get hurt and their bikes totaled, while the animals always seem to make it out completely unharmed.

On the final ascent of the Tour, Team Saxo Bank stayed at the front of the peloton and rode a fast tempo to reduce the number of riders at the front of the group.  About halfway up is where the excitement began.  As expected, the main aggressor was Andy Schleck, who launched a powerful attack that only Alberto Contador could match.  The rest of the contenders let the two of them go and fight their own battle, while they stayed behind and rode their own pace.  Contador was able to ride Schleck's wheel seemingly with ease, even with Schleck riding with a very fast pace.  At some points, the pair had gained nearly two minutes on the other GC contenders, but their lead diminished as they played some cat and mouse tactics close to the finish.  Schleck's strategy was to try to shake off Contador by riding a fast tempo instead of the usual strategy of launching attacks.  This strategy may have perhaps been used because Contador was always riding behind Schleck and thus could see his every move and react quickly.  Schleck's tempo was so fast that he likely did not have enough energy for a second full acceleration.

Contador, meanwhile, tried his luck at an attack, even though he made it clear that his goal for the day was just to finish with Schleck.  For a while it looked like Contador's attack would be successful, but Schleck mustered up the energy to catch his rival.  This is a testament to Andy Schleck's climbing skills, as in years past, when Contador launched his attack, it was all over.  These two young riders will have some great battles in the mountains for many years to come.  In the end, it became clear that the two riders would finish together and that Schleck would not be able to get the nine seconds he needed to reclaim the yellow jersey and have the advantage of starting last in the time trial.  Alberto Contador looked primed to sprint for the stage win, but in a very classy move did not contest the sprint, giving the victory to Schleck.  This was a great gesture on Contador's part, and it alleviates much of the criticism he's gotten for the past few days.  Schleck was riding in front and setting the pace for the entirety of his duel with Contador, and for Contador - who already has a reputation for being a wheelsucker - to steal the stage win would have been considered very classless.  The two riders patted each other on the back upon crossing the finish line and Schleck raised his hand halfheartedly from the bittersweetness of winning the stage but not gaining time on his rival.  At this point it seems that unless anything weird happens on Saturday's time trial, Alberto Contador is a lock for the yellow jersey and Andy Schleck is a lock for 2nd.

The rest of the GC riders did not see much action for most of the climb.  A few contenders like Levi Leipheimer and Alexandre Vinokourov were dropped from the group even without anyone having made attacks.  In the final few kilometers - the steepest ones - of the stage, the aggressive action began, with Joaquin Rodriguez bursting forward to eventually claim third.  The group shattered to pieces, and Ryder Hesjedal was able to get fourth in very impressive fashion, while Samuel Sanchez actually managed to gain eight seconds on his podium rival Denis Menchov.  One has to wonder if Sanchez may have been able to get more of a lead had he not hit the deck early in the stage.  The battle between Menchov and Sanchez will be the most intriguing in Saturday's time trial.  Menchov currently stands 21" behind Sanchez and has a great chance of gaining at least that much in the time trial.  However, Sanchez will have the advantage of starting after Menchov and being able to keep track of his intermediate times.

In other GC standings news, somehow Chris Horner is now the top-ranked Team RadioShack rider, bursting into the top ten after finishing in the GC rider minus Schleck/Contador group.  In addition to being one of the sport's greatest domestiques as well has having one of cycling's most contagiously positive attitudes, the American has throughout the years been an excellent model of consistency, and it's shown again this year.  Although he doesn't have the strength of the other top riders, he hardly ever has a bad day.  His teammates Lance Armstrong, Levi Leipheimer, Andreas Klöden, and Jani Brajkovic are all considered stronger riders, but they have all had bad days at some point or another on the Tour.  Horner has a great chance of maintaining his spot in the top ten, with a good 2'09" separating him from the 11th ranked rider.

Chris Horner, we salute you!

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	5h03'29"
2	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 00'00"
3	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 01'18"
4	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 01'27"
5	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 01'32"
6	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 01'40"
7	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 01'40"
8	Chris Horner	Team RadioShack	+ 01'45"
9	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 01'48"
10	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 02'14"
11	Damiano Cunego	Lampre-Farnese	+ 03'00"
12	Nicolas Roche	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 03'26"
13	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 03'30"
14	John Gadret	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 03'35"
15	Kanstantsin Sivtsov	Team HTC-Columbia	+ 03'44"
17	Lance Armstrong	Team RadioShack	+ 04'12"
20	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 04'27"
23	Ruben Plaza	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 04'59"
43	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 08'59"
49	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 10'45"
72	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 16'48"

*****

Notable GC Standings

1	Alberto Contador	Astana	83h32'39"
2	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 00'08"
3	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 03'32"
4	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 03'53"
5	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 05'27"
6	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 06'41"
7	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 07'03"
8	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 09'18"
9	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 10'12"
10	Chris Horner	Team RadioShack	+ 10'37"
11	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 12'46"
12	Ruben Plaza	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 13'01"
13	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 14'24"
14	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 14'44"
15	Nicolas Roche	AG2R La Mondiale	+ 16'00"
16	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 17'57"
21	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 25'50"

*****

Final Mountains Standings

1	Anthony Charteau	BBox Bouygues Telecom	143 pts
2	Christophe Moreau	Caisse D'Epargne	128 pts
3	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	116 pts
4	Alberto Contador	Astana	112 pts
5	Damiano Cunego	Lampre-Farnese	99 pts
6	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	96 pts
7	Sandy Casar	FDJ	93 pts
8	Jérôme Pineau	Quick Step	92 pts
9	Thomas Voeckler	BBox Bouygues Telecom	82 pts
10	Pierrick Fedrigo	BBox Bouygues Telecom	72 pts

*****

Stage 18 Preview

The Tour is done with the mountains, and before the time trial that will ultimately set the GC standings in stone, we'll get a stage for the sprinters.  A breakaway finish will be essentially impossible tomorrow (unless the wind is very unruly), and we can expect a bunch sprint.  Meanwhile the GC riders will use the stage to get themselves rested but prepared for the critical time trial on Saturday.  Not much more to say here, so I'll go ahead with my prediction and will go with Alessandro Petacchi to upset Mark Cavendish for the stage win and reclaim the green jersey.

*****

For full Stage 17 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 18, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website.  Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening.  Live coverage on Versus begins at 8:30 AM (ET).