TdF Commentary 7/4

Stage 1 Recap

Crashes everywhere near the finish, Petacchi survives for stage win and green jersey

The first day of racing in the Tour, and especially the first sprint, can be a nervous time for all the riders.  Today, multiple crashes near the end of the race eliminated nearly all the top sprinters from contention for the stage win.  Veteran sprinter Alessandro Petacchi was one of the few riders not to get caught up in the ensuing traffic jam and won a sprint hardly resembling the bunch sprint we expected.

The breakaway of the day was established right at the beginning of the stage, with Lars Boom (Rabobank) starting the attack and being joined by Maarten Wynants (Quick Step) and Alan Perez (Euskaltel-Euskadi).  The three would sustain their attack for nearly 200 km.  As the peloton came closer, only Wynants was able to keep the lead, and as Boom and Perez were caught by the peloton, Alexandr Pliuschin (Katusha) launched a counterattack and joined Wynants.  Still, it was only a matter of time before the peloton would reel in the escapees to set up a bunch sprint.  Wynants took home the combativeness prize of the day - a victory for the Quick Step team, who without the injured sprinter Tom Boonen do not have a lot they can realistically achieve on Tour.

At least three crashes occurred in the peloton in the middle portion of the stage - one involving GC contender Ivan Basso and green jersey wearer David Millar.  However, the biggest drama of the stage occurred in the last 5 km of the stage.  After the escapees were caught with 8.5 km left to go in the stage, the pace of the peloton was high.  A small crash during a right turn seemed to be instigated by an over-aggressive Mark Cavendish, taking out himself and sprinter Oscar Freire.  Then on the final straightaway, as sprinters were setting up their final pushes, a crash towards the front of the peloton caused a chain reaction that halted all those riding behind to a standstill.  Among the few riders surviving were Thor Hushovd, Robbie McEwen, Alessandro Petacchi, and Tyler Farrar - who now seemed in prime position for the stage win with Cavendish out of contention.  However, another rider got tangled up with Farrar and the two went down.  Eventually, Petacchi won the sprint convincingly, followed by Cavendish's lead-out man Mark Renshaw, then Hushovd and McEwen.

The Tour acknowledges the dangerous nature of the final moments of a stage.  Thus, although the peloton finished several minutes behind Petacchi in real time, all riders in the peloton will be given the same time as Petacchi.  This ruling is used when a crash happens in the final 3 km of a stage.  As a result of this, as expected there are no major changes to the GC standings, and Fabian Cancellara will retain the yellow jersey, and Tony Martin the white jersey.  For his sprint victory, Alessandro Petacchi earns the green jersey. Meanwhile, the polka-dot jersey has still not yet been awarded, though with categorized climbs finally on the map tomorrow, we will see someone wearing it after then.

The many crashes in this stage were a huge scare, and we'll have to wait until tomorrow to see in any riders will be unable to continue the race.  The biggest winners of this stage were Alessandro Petacchi, who at 37 years old and in his first Tour since 2004, showed that he still has elite form; and Thor Hushovd, who was able to survive and earn 26 points with his third-place finish, giving him some breathing space over the likes of Mark Cavendish and Tyler Farrar.  Meanwhile, Cavendish and Farrar now find themselves in a hole after not scoring any points on a stage on which they would have excelled had it not been for the crashes.  Farrar has 4 cumulative points for his impressive performance in the prologue, while Cavendish still has yet to get on the board.  They and Oscar Freire now already find themselves well behind Hushovd.

*****

Notable Points Standings

1	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	35 pts
2	Mark Renshaw	Team HTC-Columbia	30 pts
3	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	26 pts
4	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	24 pts
22	Edvald Boasson Hagen	Team Sky	10 pts
30	Tyler Farrar	Garmin-Transitions	4 pts
-	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	0 pts
-	Oscar Freire	Rabobank	0 pts
-	Gerald Ciolek	Milram	0 pts

*****

Stage 2 Preview

Stage 2 will take place entirely in Belgium, and after two days without any categorized climbs, we'll finally see someone in polka dots by the end of tomorrow.  The layout of the stage will create some interesting tactics from beginning to end.  First, an intermediate sprint at 39.5 km might be enticing, especially to the sprinters who got caught up in crashes in today's stage.  Any opportunity at getting points is now crucial to those sprinters who have fallen behind, and they may interested in keeping the peloton intact until then in order to compete for the 6 points up for grabs.  39.5 km may be too far, however, for teams to continually prevent breakaways from being established.

None of the climbs tomorrow are too great in point value, so it's unlikely that the top contenders for the polka-dot jersey will make their moves.  Instead, with only just a few climbs (all category 4) remaining before the Tour hits the Alps, breakaway riders will battle it out amongst themselves for the rights to hold the polka-dot jersey possibly through Stage 5 or 6.

This stage is perfect for sprinters like Thor Hushovd and Oscar Friere, while the likes of Mark Cavendish will get dropped on the final climb.  If the main breakaway is large, Cervélo TestTeam and Rabobank will push the peloton and try to catch the breakaway to get maximum points for Hushovd and Freire.  Team Saxo Bank may join in the effort, so as to prolong Fabian Cancellara's yellow jersey tenure.  However, if the breakaway is very small, the hybrid sprinters may want to save their energy and just battle for partial credit, as the pure sprinters are likely out of contention for any points on this stage.  In this case, we may see someone new in yellow after today, as Saxo Bank will want to save its energy for the Schleck brothers (i.e. in the mountains).

The polka-dot jersey is up for grabs, so I'll predict a larger breakaway of about 15 riders, with a few riders battling it out for mountains points and the rest mainly aiming for a stage win.  Only 2.5 km separates the bottom of the final descent and the finish line, so the peloton may be interested in catching the breakaway on the ascent of the Col du Rosier.  This stage presents too good an opportunity for Hushovd and Freire to pass up, so I'll predict that the breakaway will be caught by a fairly large group (40+ riders) containing Hushovd, Freire, and all the GC contenders, with Oscar Freire getting the stage victory, along with much needed points.  Count on Thor Hushovd ending up with the green jersey after today, though.  For the first polka-dot jersey, I'll pick Amets Txurruka to get a lead comfortable enough to hold until the end of Stage 5.

*****

For full Stage 1 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 2, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website.  Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening.  The stage will start at 6:10 AM (ET), and Versus's TV coverage will begin at 8:30 AM (ET).