TdF Predictions & Prologue Preview

Predictions

Here I'll make my picks to win all the major prizes in this year's Tour.  We'll see in three weeks how I did.  For the general classification, it's hard to see anyone beating Alberto Contador, even if he's not at 100%.  I expect a repeat of last year's podium with Andy Schleck finishing second and Lance Armstrong third.  However, I would not be surprised to see the aging Armstrong replaced by a RadioShack teammate like Andreas Kloden or Levi Leipheimer at the third spot.  We will find out when the Tour hits the Alps if Lance still has what it takes, or whether someone else should take the lead.  Bradley Wiggins and Frank Schleck are also very much in contention for a podium finish, and Ivan Basso may surprise.

In the points classification, it's hard to see Mark Cavendish winning the jersey, especially if his racing is not nearly as dominant as last year.  Last year's green jersey winner Thor Hushovd hasn't exactly been racing at his peak potential this year either, so I'll go with an upset by choosing Oscar Freire, who has been having a great season so far.  With Cavendish not at 100%, we might also see Tyler Farrar win at least one stage, and I'll also be rooting for my favorite sprinter - the veteran Robbie McEwen - to get a stage victory.

The King of the Mountains competition is always hard to predict.  I'll go ahead and pick last year's runner up Egoi Martinez, but my pick will almost certainly be wrong, just because the competition is so wide open.  The young rider classification should be won easily by Andy Schleck, and the team classification by Team RadioShack, as I mentioned in yesterday's post.  To summarize my picks:

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Jason's Picks

Yellow Jersey	2nd Place	3rd Place
Alberto Contador	Andy Schleck	Lance Armstrong

Green Jersey	Polka-Dot Jersey
Oscar Freire	Egoi Martinez

White Jersey	Team Classification
Andy Schleck	Team RadioShack

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Prologue - July 3

For the first time in three years, the Tour will once again begin with a prologue, after some experimentation with a group race in 2008 and a longer time trial in 2009 to kick off those respective Tours.  This year's race begins with an 8.9 km time trial in Rotterdam, The Netherlands, and the Tour won't actually reach France itself until the end of Stage 3.

Prologues tend to occur in large cities and are relatively flat.  This year's course is no exception, with the only two inclines of note just being bridges crossing the Nieuwe Maas river.  The course is perfect for a time-trial specialist like the Swiss grinder Fabian Cancellara or the elite track cyclist Bradley Wiggins.  However, the very short length of the course is also optimal for a power-pedaler like Thor Hushovd.  We may even see a surprise victory by Alberto Contador, who may look to grab the yellow jersey immediately.

I'll go ahead and make the safest pick by choosing Fabian Cancellara to win the stage by a small margin and hold onto the yellow jersey until the end of Stage 2.

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Make sure to check out the TdF's official website for more complete info on the stage, as well as on race day for live newsflashes (in my opinion the most efficient and exciting way to follow the race).  Televised coverage of the race can be caught live at 11:15 AM (ET), or on tape delay (during the evening) on the Versus channel.