TdF Commentary 7/13

Stage 9 Recap

Casar barely holds off Schleck/Contador chase for sprint win, GC contenders group falls apart on Tour's first HC climb, Evans latest rider to break down, Schleck in yellow

For the third consecutive Grand Tour, Cadel Evans has earned the overall leader's jersey only to lose it in the following stage.  A stage that wasn't necessarily expected to see too much GC action ended up having a huge effect on the standings and meant the end of podium hopes for many riders, including Michael Rogers, Carlos Sastre, Bradley Wiggins, and Cadel Evans.  Evans revealed that he fractured his elbow in a crash on Stage 8, and it was obvious that there was something off about his riding today.

A breakaway of eleven riders formed early on the stage, which was actually a downhill slope leading to the first climbs.  Included in the breakaway were green jersey holder Thor Hushovd, who claimed 6 points on an intermediate sprint before dropping back, and polka-dot jersey holder Jérôme Pineau, who continued his aggressive tactics in hopes of holding onto the jersey.  Several riders would launch counterattacks, including Damiano Cunego, who was my pick for the stage victory.  Cunego was very aggressive today, launching attack after attack, and eventually being able to escape successfully; it was clear that he was going for a stage win today.

Eventually, it was Anthony Charteau who inherited the polka-dot jersey from Pineau.  While Pineau was very determined to maintain his lead, he faltered before the final climb, which was rated HC (the highest difficulty).  Charteau and Pineau both have a total of 85 mountains points, but because Charteau has a 1st place finish on the Tour's only HC climb, he gains the jersey by tiebreaker.  Pineau may still be in the running for the polka-dot jersey, but he will have to ride extremely aggressively on stages with shorter climbs, since he clearly cannot contend on the higher ones.

As the lead group began slowing down and falling apart, the GC contenders' peloton was making the climb up the Col de la Madeleine at a furious pace, just like yesterday.  This resulted in a great deal of action on a stage that was not expected to have big consequences on the GC.  Riders fell off the back of the peloton at a very fast rate, including many of the GC contenders, and most notably Cadel Evans.  The implosion of the leaders' peloton meant that attacks would become more useful, as the smaller groups would have trouble chasing at the bottom of the descent.  With just a few people left riding with them, Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador would seize the opportunity to reduce the yellow jersey competition to a two-horse race by attacking the rest of the contenders.  Only Samuel Sanchez could keep up at first, but even he was eventually dropped on the climb.  Schleck and Contador made the descent and rode the final flat at a blazing speed, eventually catching up to the perhaps oblivious breakaway in the final kilometer.

Oftentimes, a breakaway will slow down towards the end of the stage and start playing "cat-and-mouse" in order to win the sprint.  However, this often leads to the breakaway being caught and everybody losing their chance to win the stage - as was nearly the case today.  Eventually, Sandy Casar was able to hold off Contador and Schleck to win the sprint finish, which is impressive considering that Damiano Cunego is considered to be a far superior sprinter.  Other than the grupettos that aimed only to finish within the time limit, all the groups to cross the finish were very small, and the result was big time gaps among many of the GC contenders.  If the peloton hadn't been so thinned out, a chase in the final portion of the stage would have been more effective.

At this point, it is clear that barring catastrophe, the winner of this year's yellow jersey will either be Alberto Contador or Andy Schleck.  Schleck has looked impressive in his aggressive climbing, while Contador is either not as good as last year or is saving energy for the far more difficult Pyrenees.  Currently, the advantage goes to Contador, who can likely get 2-4 minutes on Schleck in the time trial.  Schleck will need to continue to try to get time gaps on Contador in the Pyrenees.  The battle for the final podium spot is still fairly open though, and I'd say there are 5 legitimate contenders (Samuel Sanchez, Denis Menchov, Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Levi Leipheimer, Robert Gesink) to that third spot, and maybe 3 more fringe contenders (Luis-Leon Sanchez, Ivan Basso, Roman Kreuziger).

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Sandy Casar	FDJ	5h38'10"
2	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 00'00"
3	Damiano Cunego	Lampre-Farnese	+ 00'00"
4	Christophe Moreau	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 00'02"
5	Anthony Charteau	BBox Bouygues Telecom	+ 00'02"
6	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 00'02"
7	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 00'02"
8	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 00'52"
9	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 02'07"
10	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 02'07"
11	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 02'07"
13	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 02'10"
15	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 02'50"
17	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 02'50"
19	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 03'48"
20	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 03'48"
23	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 04'53"
27	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 04'55"
30	Bradley Wiggins	Team Sky	+ 04'55"
32	Michael Rogers	Team HTC-Columbia	+ 04'55"
42	Cadel Evans	BMC Racing Team	+ 08'09"

*****

Notable GC Standings

1	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	43h35'41"
2	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 00'41"
3	Samuel Sanchez	Euskaltel-Euskadi	+ 02'45"
4	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 02'58"
5	Jurgen Van Den Broeck	Omega Pharma-Lotto	+ 03'31"
6	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 03'59"
7	Robert Gesink	Rabobank	+ 04'22"
8	Luis-Leon Sanchez	Caisse D'Epargne	+ 04'41"
9	Joaquin Rodriguez	Katusha	+ 05'08"
10	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 05'09"
11	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 05'11"
12	Ryder Hesjedal	Garmin-Transitions	+ 05'42"
13	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 06'31"
14	Michael Rogers	Team HTC-Columbia	+ 07'04"
15	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 07'13"
16	Bradley Wiggins	Team Sky	+ 07'18"
18	Cadel Evans	BMC Racing Team	+ 07'47"

*****

Notable Mountains Standings

1	Anthony Charteau	BBox Bouygues Telecom	85 pts
2	Jérôme Pineau	Quick Step	85 pts
3	Christophe Moreau	Caisse D'Epargne	62 pts
4	Damiano Cunego	Lampre-Farnese	56 pts
5	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	50 pts

*****

Stage 10 Preview

The Tour makes its exit from the Alps with a medium mountains stage that ends with a descent into Gap, which has become notorious for the incident on the 2003 Tour de France where Lance Armstrong managed to stay on his bike while avoiding a crashing Joseba Beloki by taking an off-road downhill route.  Sadly, the crash ended the career of Beloki, but Armstrong's downhill ride made it one of the Tour's immortal moments.

We will almost see a breakaway victory here, and because tomorrow is Bastille Day, there will be many Frenchmen in the breakaway.  This happens every year, and yes, it is always a big deal for a Frenchman to win on Bastille Day.  If Thor Hushovd can find himself in the breakaway, the intermediate sprint at the beginning of the stage looks like some appetizing points.  It's possible that he'll be able to get some points at the finish - though he'd need to somehow have improved his form over the rest of the Tour. Jérôme Pineau might also continue his aggressiveness if he has the energy for it, since the first climb is valuable and he is probably looking to get the polka-dot jersey back.

As is the case with breakaway-friendly stages, it's hard to predict a stage winner.  The most awesome potential winner is Sylvain Chavanel, who would blow everyone's minds with a third stage win.  However, I'd have to choose a different Frenchman in favor of Chavanel.  Which one?  Well, I'll say whichever rider BBox Bouygues Telecom gets in the breakaway.  Thomas Voeckler, Nicolas Vogondy, Pierrick Fedrigo, Cyril Gautier, take your pick.

*****

For full Stage 9 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 10, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website.  Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening.  Live coverage on Versus begins at 8:00 AM (ET).