UFC 121 Preview

Well, my last set of predictions were just horrible, but whatever - what's MMA without the element of surprise?  Anyway, this Saturday's UFC 121 features a heavyweight championship fight between Brock Lesnar and Cain Velasquez, and out of the four other fights on the main card, I think three of them are great matchups despite the betting odds (only fight I'm not so stoked for is Hamill-Ortiz).  The event is definitely too huge to not preview, so here we go again!  Hopefully I do better with my picks this time.

Note: New to this edition of my previews is fighter rankings, which are relative to their weight class (or classes, for fighters like Diego Sanchez or Jake Shields who are transitioning between weight classes).  Rankings are from Bloody Elbow, which compiles subjective rankings from multiple sources.

*****

Heavyweight Bout

Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

Fighter Profiles

Brendan Schaub (6-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) is the runner-up of season 10 of The Ultimate Fighter, and is being built as a rising star in the division.  Schaub is without a doubt athletic, having made the practice squad for the Buffalo Bills.  However, he is still relatively new to professional MMA.  Schaub's striking is not technically sharp, nor is he great at takedown defense.  However, he makes up for these deficiencies through his punching power and scrambling ability.  Schaub can easily find himself in bad situations but has the ability to always get back to his feet and end anyone's night on any given moment.

(#13) Gabriel Gonzaga (11-5 MMA, 7-4 UFC, 3-2 last five) has found an unfortunate role as a gatekeeper for the heavyweight division, making quick work of lesser talents but not finding success against the top fighters in the division.  Gonzaga is probably most dangerous as a grappler, but he rarely tries to take the game to the ground.  Instead, he tends to make his bouts striking matches.  Gonzaga is still formidable as a striker, but tends to get himself into troublesome situations.  Gonzaga's weight of about 255 lbs does translate into a respectable amount of power, but at that weight, it is unsurprising that his cardio is not impressive.  As his fights enter the later rounds, Gonzaga tires and finds himself more and more vulnerable.

Pre-fight Analysis

Skill-wise, Gonzaga trumps Schaub in almost all departments.  However, his weaknesses are his mental game and physical conditioning, and these factors are what give Schaub a good chance of pulling out the win.  History dictates that this fight will take place largely on the feet.  Despite Gonzaga's excellent grappling skills, he will likely want to stand and bang.  Additionally, Schaub will probably be able to scramble back to his feet, which may frustrate his opponent.  The later this fight goes, the more the cards favor the better athlete in Schaub.  Therefore, for Gonzaga to win, he will either have to score a quick knockout or submission, or pick Schaub apart enough early on to affect his performance in the later rounds.  Meanwhile, Schaub's path to victory will either be the knockout punch, or a decision or late round TKO as Gonzaga wears down.  Both fighters have the ability to knock out their opponent with a single strike, and even if only for this, the odds for the fight should be closer than they are.  Schaub has more than just a punch's chance to win this fight, but Gonzaga's advantages early in the fight should not be dismissed.  I'll pick Gonzaga to win early, but I do like Schaub's chances.

Prediction: Gonzaga by TKO (strikes, Round 1)

Approximate Betting Odds: +160 (37%) Schaub, -200 (63%) Gonzaga

Betting Recommendation: On paper, Gonzaga is the better fighter, but he does have the tendency to disappoint, and Schaub's knockout power is a big plus.  Small play on Schaub.

*****

Light Heavyweight Bout

Tito Ortiz vs. Matt Hamill

Fighter Profiles

(#23) Tito Ortiz (15-7-1 MMA, 14-7-1 UFC, 1-3-1 last five) was once a dominant force in the UFC light heavyweight division, reigning as champion for more than two years.  However, he is now seemingly just a shadow of his old self, falling victim to repeated injuries, and not having won a fight since 2006.  "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" used his energetic ground and pound to dominate the division many years ago, but over the years his athleticism has declined, and his injuries take their toll on his conditioning as well.  Additionally, while other fighters have been evolving their games, Tito Ortiz is still just Tito Ortiz.  

(#18) Matt Hamill (9-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC, 4-1 last five) is most known for being the inspirational guy who overcame his deafness to become one of the UFC's top light heavyweights.  Although Hamill comes from a wrestling background, his MMA game is the definition of all-around.  Hamill participated in season 3 of The Ultimate Fighter and was actually coached by Tito Ortiz himself on the show.  Hamill does not have an explosive game - he prefers to stalk his opponent.  While Hamill eats some shots this way, he has a formidable enough striking game to compete against much of the division on the feet, and his iron chin keeps him out of trouble.

Pre-fight Analysis

We have a matchup between two wrestlers, and much of the time, the wrestling cancels out, turning the fight into a standup battle.  I don't expect much of the fight to be spent on the ground, although both fighters will try their luck at a shot, especially later in the rounds to try to sway the judges.  Hamill should be the better striker, and thus it will likely be Tito going in for more takedown attempts, especially because his MMA game plans continue to be one-dimensionally based on ground and pound.  For the most part, these shots from both fighters should be unsuccessful, though one man might play the percentage game and find success after many tries.  Because on the feet both fighters are rather tough to finish and not consistently devastating finishers, a decision is likely unless someone gets a takedown early in the round.  I'd bet on the fight staying on the feet for the most part, possibly with Ortiz getting a takedown to steal one of the rounds.  For the most part, though, it should be Hamill's night, especially since just as in his other recent fights, Ortiz is not likely to show up at 100%.

Prediction: Hamill by decision

Approximate Betting Odds: +145 (39%) Ortiz, -175 (61%) Hamill

Betting Recommendation: Ortiz's line is being inflated by his name, and honestly, he should not be fighting anymore.  Moderate play on Hamill.

*****

Welterweight Bout

Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago

Fighter Profiles

Diego Sanchez (21-4 MMA, 10-4 UFC, 3-2 last five) is one of the winners of the original Ultimate Fighter and well-known for his cardio, iron chin, and relentless offense (as well as his "yus!" cartwheels).  His technique is not fantastic and has not really evolved throughout the years to keep up with the improving competition.  However, he had for a while remained successful if only for his conditioning and energy.  After getting destroyed by then-lightweight champion BJ Penn, Sanchez moved back up to welterweight, where he was manhandled by John Hathaway.  The UFC welterweight division is not as deep as its lightweight division, but Sanchez needs to deal with bigger opponents who punch harder and are more difficult to take down.  Sanchez's inability to take down John Hathaway was discouraging, especially in light of Hathaway's recent loss to Mike Pyle, but Sanchez did not look like himself, so that fight may have been a fluke.  Unfortunately for him, things don't get any easier for him, with the UFC giving him arguably a tougher opponent in Paulo Thiago.

(#9) Paulo Thiago (13-2 MMA, 3-2 UFC, 3-2 last five) remains an enigma in the UFC welterweight division after finishing top-tier fighters Josh Koscheck and Mike Swick but getting manhandled by Martin Kampmann in his most recent fight.  Strangely, he is considered to be both vastly overrated and vastly underrated at the same time.  Thiago's striking is ugly but effective - I guess you could say this is what one might expect from a fighter who is in the special police force.  Thiago has black belts in judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but his groundwork in the MMA context has not been too impressive, and he hasn't been able to do much off his back against less seasoned grapplers.  Also fitting of the police force persona is an iron man fighting style.  Thiago has never been finished, he is not one to back down mentally, and he stalks his opponent, forcing them to remain active at all times.

Pre-fight Analysis

On the feet, Sanchez is not likely to find success, and he might find himself getting lit up just like in his fight against BJ Penn.  Sanchez may be able to squeeze some strikes in through pure speed and energy alone, though at welterweight, Sanchez's speed is diminished.  Additionally, because neither fighter is likely to knock out their opponent with a small volume of strikes, whoever is losing the standup battle should look to quickly take the fight to the ground.  In the most likely scenario, Sanchez will be the one looking for the takedown, and whether he can score some and keep Thiago on the ground while avoiding submissions is completely up to speculation.  Sanchez's shot won't have the same explosiveness as it did at lightweight and his wrestling in his last match was unimpressive.  However, Thiago has been shown to be vulnerable to the takedown and top control even against non-elite wrestlers.  Because both fighters are notorious for being incredibly difficult to finish, I'll predict a decision, and I foresee Thiago outpointing Sanchez on the feet.  Sanchez may be able to steal the decision with his wrestling, but how good his wrestling will be is a gigantic X-factor.

Prediction: Thiago by decision

Approximate Betting Odds: Even Sanchez (47%), -130 (53%) Thiago

Betting Recommendation: Sanchez's last fight may have just been a fluke, and Paulo Thiago is still a mystery.  No bet.

*****

Welterweight Bout

Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann

Fighter Profiles

(#10) Jake Shields (25-4-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC, 5-0 last five) finally enters the UFC after having cleaned out the welterweight and middleweight divisions of several other organizations.  After climbing high in the middleweight rankings (largely due to a lack of competition in Strikeforce at welterweight), Shields moves back down to welterweight as a potential challenger to UFC champion Georges St-Pierre.  As of right now his middleweight ranking is #4, and his ranking of #10 at welterweight is only so low because he has not fought in the division for a long time.  Shields has never been known for his striking, but his wrestling and jiu-jitsu are extremely effective.  Shields has not looked invincible during his 14-fight win streak, but he has always been able to use his grappling and strong will as neutralizers.  While his shoot is not particularly explosive, he usually manages to get the fight to the ground through technique and persistence.  On the ground, Shields is an elite positional grappler, having the uncanny ability to get to mount at will.  His ground and pound is notorious for lacking power, being more of a pitter-patter than damaging.  However, the last two decision victories against Dan Henderson and Jason Miller are more exceptions than rule, as Shields typically finishes fights through TKO or submission despite his lack of pure power.

(#7) Martin Kampmann (17-3 MMA, 8-2 UFC, 4-1 last five) was one fight away from a title shot before getting knocked out by Paul Daley.  After another impressive run, Kampmann now finds himself one or two wins away from getting that title shot.  As a fighter, Kampmann is a dangerous striker, having long limbs and the muay thai background to effectively use them.  Also like other fighters with lanky builds, Kampmann's chokes are dangerous.  Overall, though, Kampmann is more of an all-around fighter with no major weaknesses, and who has enough of a skill set to be effective in many situations and against different types of opponents, while not relying too much on one particular aspect of his game.  In particular, Kampmann looked extremely impressive in his most recent fight, where he manhandled Paulo Thiago and won a decision convincingly by out-pointing Thiago on the feet, as well as mixing in some takedowns and working his ground and pound while avoiding submissions.

Pre-fight Analysis

Two big questions will determine how this fight will play out.  First, will Martin Kampmann be able to avoid the takedown?  While Kampmann showed off his offensive wrestling against Paulo Thiago, we didn't really get to see how his takedown defense has improved.  He has certainly worked a lot on takedown defense, but much of the time, no amount of work will save you from getting taken down by a great grappler (who made quick work wrestling-wise of the Olympic-level wrestler Dan Henderson).  If Jake Shields is able to end up on top of Kampmann, Shields will have a great chance of finishing the fight, and it will be up to Kampmann to somehow work his way out or - more likely - try to merely survive the round.  Second, will Martin Kampmann be able to use his striking effectively enough to make up for Jake Shields's takedown ability?  There is no question that Kampmann is the better striker of the two and that Shields's objective will be to go for the takedown.  Fortunately for Kampmann, Shields's takedowns are more based on technique than explosiveness.  This will give Kampmann a little more leeway to land strikes while maintaining distance.  We've already seen Shields rocked by Dan Henderson, and there is also a very real possibility of Kampmann stunning the UFC newcomer.  We've already seen Shields work his way out of a rough situation against a much bigger man with one-punch knockout power, so Kampmann will certainly have to unleash a string of solid hits to finish Shields and avoid the takedown.  Alternatively, Kampmann can opt to play the distance game and try to out-point Shields to a decision victory.  In the end, I think Shields will get those takedowns and will have a good chance of finishing Kampmann after getting mount.  Kampmann is definitely a good underdog pick though and has a great chance of getting the win.

Prediction: Shields by submission (rear naked choke, Round 2)

Approximate Betting Odds: -260 (69%) Shields, +210 (31%) Kampmann

Betting Recommendation: Shields is the rightful favorite, but he is new to the elite ranks of the UFC, and Kampmann is by no means an easy test.  Small play on Kampmann.

*****

Heavyweight Championship Bout

Brock Lesnar (Champ) vs. Cain Velasquez

Fighter Profiles

(#1) Brock Lesnar (5-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) is relatively new to MMA but already fights like a true champion, having won the UFC heavyweight championship by defeating Randy Couture, then defending it twice against Frank Mir and Shane Carwin.  The former WWE star is also a former NCAA Division I wrestling champion and uses his wrestling to smother his opponents.  Lesnar walks at around 285 lbs, cutting weight to reach the 265 lb weight limit.  However, his size is essentially pure muscle, and for a big man, Lesnar's explosiveness and athleticism is incredible.  Lesnar's striking is rudimentary but powerful, and in his last fight, he proved that he can take quite a beating.  If Lesnar ends up on top of his opponent, he will use his weight to prevent them from escaping, and has the ability to do a large amount of damage without giving his opponent much space at all.

(#3) Cain Velasquez (8-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC, 5-0 last five) has made a meteoric rise to the top of the UFC heavyweight division.  Also a high-level collegiate wrestler, Velasquez has relied largely on his wrestling to dominate his opponents.  However, he has also shown a very great improvement in the striking department.  Velasquez's chin is questionable, as he has been dazed on several occasions, and his ground and pound, much like that of a certain Jake Shields, is more about volume punching than power punching.  At roughly 235 lbs, Velasquez gives up a lot of size to many of the other fighters in the weight class, but he makes up for this disadvantage with explosiveness and an endless gas tank.  While many other heavyweights are very dangerous in the first round and fade in the later stages, Velasquez is able to carry out an all out attack for the entirety of at least a three-round fight.

Pre-fight Analysis

There are so many questions leading into this fight.  Can Lesnar take down Velasquez?  Can Velasquez take down Lesnar?  Does Lesnar have the cardio to go a full five rounds?  Can Cain survive Lesnar's ground and pound should he end up on bottom?  The fight starts on the feet so let's start there.  Lesnar's striking is more powerful but Cain's should be quicker and more technical.  If Lesnar connects with a sold punch, it will likely be goodnight for Velasquez.  Likewise, Lesnar was sent curling up after a few shots from Shane Carwin.  Fortunately for the champ, Cain Velasquez does not pack the same power than Carwin does.  However, Lesnar may see himself eating more strikes than he ever has before.  If the fight hits the ground, then whoever is on top has the clear advantage, and the man on bottom will try his best to get the fight back on the feet.  Lesnar can easily get a stoppage win from a knockout punch, or by getting into Cain's half-guard, where the smaller Velasquez will have little chance of escaping.  For Velasquez, his path to victory will more likely be wearing the champ down to get a decision or a late-round TKO.  If Cain gets Brock to the ground - whether it be through striking or wrestling - he will have to be much smarter about his ground and pound than Shane Carwin was.  I will have to go with the heart pick here (can anyone say Frankie Edgar vs. BJ Penn?) and choose Cain Velasquez to avoid Lesnar's takedowns and secure the victory by wearing down the champion through striking before getting a late-round takedown or knockdown and sealing the win with ground and pound.

Prediction: Velasquez by TKO (strikes, Round 4)

Approximate Betting Odds: -155 (58%) Lesnar, +125 (42%) Velasquez

Betting Recommendation: Same betting strategy as with the rest of Lesnar's fights.  No play.

*****

My Official Fantasy Bets (Main Card)

100 points on Brendan Schaub at +160 to win 160 points
280 points on Matt Hamill at -175 to win 160 points
50 points on Martin Kampmann at +210 to win 105 points

Max win: 425 points
Max loss: 430 points