In the order the bouts will be contested:
*****
Welterweight Bout
Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis
Fighter Profiles
Nate Diaz (12-5 MMA, 7-3 UFC, 2-3 last five) is entering his second fight after his move up from lightweight, where he was having a not-so-great run in a deep division. His last bout was technically at middleweight when his opponent failed to make welterweight, but Diaz used crisp striking to get the TKO win. Diaz has a reach of 76", which was huge for the lightweight division and at welterweight is still respectable. Like his brother Nick, Nate prefers the strategy of light punches in volume, rather than winding up for the heavy hits. However, at welterweight, his striking does have a little more oomph to it, from his not having to cut so much weight. Diaz's main strength remains his jiu-jitsu, and his lankiness is ideal the submission game.
Marcus Davis (17-6 MMA, 9-4 UFC, 3-2 last five) comes from a boxing background, having amassed a 17-1-2 professional boxing record before making the permanent transition to MMA. Davis is by all means a scrapper, and would easily take a hit in order to land one of his own. As a result of this, his style is often sloppy. In addition, when you consider his boxing career and his MMA career, Davis has taken a lot of hits, and at the age of 37 those hits have likely taken a big toll on his ability to absorb damage. Still, Davis's knockout power must still be respected, and that alone keeps him in contention for any fight.
Pre-fight Analysis
Diaz has a six-inch reach advantage on Davis and always uses his reach advantage well, even when taking into account Davis's background in boxing. On the other hand, Davis's power means that he can score the knockout even if he is being outclassed. If Diaz takes the smartest route, he will try to take the fight to the ground, either through a takedown or more easily by pulling guard. This area is where Diaz has the clear advantage. However, both Diaz brothers have had a history of wanting to stand and bang despite their proficiency in Gracie jiu-jitsu. Davis will certainly want to keep the fight on the feet, and I have the feeling Diaz will comply. I think Diaz will still be better on the feet though, working his way to a decision victory, although we may see Davis trying a desperation takedown and getting caught in a choke.
Prediction: Nate Diaz by decision
Betting Recommendation: Diaz should win this fight 4 times out of 5. This warrants a moderate play on Diaz at -250 or better.
*****
Lightweight Bout
Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard
Fighter Profiles
Kenny Florian (14-4 MMA, 11-3 UFC, 4-1 last five) has improved constantly and greatly throughout his stint in the UFC and is now one of the most complete fighters in the sport. Florian has a background in jiu-jitsu and muay thai and has successfully incorporated these styles into a complete MMA game. With the exception of his fight against BJ Penn, Florian comes into his fights with great game plans, which typically use striking to set up a late takedown, leading into a submission (almost always by rear naked choke). In addition, Florian's elbow strikes are notorious for causing cuts, which can mess up any opponent's game plan.
Gray Maynard (9-0 (1 NC) MMA, 7-0 (1 NC) UFC, 5-0 last five) is a wrestler-boxer with a very deliberate style that has led to six straight decision victories in the UFC. However, this conservative approach has also resulted in a record whose only blemish is a no contest from an odd incident in his first bout in the UFC. Maynard knocked himself out while taking down his opponent, but this takedown also injured his opponent, forcing him to submit at the same time - resulting in a no contest.
Pre-fight Analysis
Florian was able to beat up wrestler Clay Guida enough to take the fight to the ground, but the more credentialed Maynard will be more difficult to bring down - especially because he won't get hit as much as Guida usually does. Maynard will likely spend the first round on his feet trying to beat Florian in a standup war. I expect Florian to get the better of Maynard on the feet, and I expect the fight to hit the ground after the first round - either by Maynard's will as he tries to win the remaining two rounds, or by Florian's as his striking makes Maynard more susceptible to the takedown. Florian is very dangerous on the ground, even from the bottom, where he uses elbow strikes to inflict a lot of damage. If Florian finds himself on top (through a takedown or a sweep), it's game over. Maynard actually has a decent chance of pulling out the decision victory, as long as he slows the pace down enough to look to outpoint Florian on the feet. But I think Florian will win the fight, though I can't decide whether he'll get his trademark rear naked choke within the 15 minute time period or will settle for the decision. I'll flip a coin to decide.
Prediction: Kenny Florian by submission (rear naked choke, Round 3)
Betting Recommendation: -175/+150 looks like an accurate line. No bet.
*****
Middleweight Bout
Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda
Fighter Profiles
Demian Maia (12-2 MMA, 6-2 UFC, 3-2 last five) is a jiu-jitsu world champion, and is not afraid to pull guard or even half-guard on his opponents. He is a huge step above even other Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts in the division, and his groundwork is elegant and a pleasure to watch. However, his striking game is very limited both in terms of technique and power, and in an MMA context he is not the best at getting the fight to the ground. Because of his lack of takedown power, Maia often finds himself doing the butt scoot to try to grab a hold of a leg and drag his opponent down - not the safest technique. However, once the fight is on the ground, it's just a matter of time before Maia pulls off the submission.
Mario Miranda (12-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) has a background in Brazilian jiu-jitsu but has actually won more fights by knockout than by submission. To be honest, I am not too familiar with Miranda, who is making his main card debut as a last-minute replacement for Alan Belcher. Thus, my analysis will be slightly based on assumptions regarding Miranda's skills.
Pre-fight Analysis
Maia's three most recent fights don't spell well for him. He was unable to take down Anderson Silva (who was subsequently taken down at will by Chael Sonnen), and two fights before that he was knocked out quickly by Nate Marquardt, who is more renowned as a grappler than as a striker. In between those fights was an unimpressive decision victory over Dan Miller that stayed on the feet. Miranda should have the advantage in the striking department, and Maia will need to take the fight to the ground. The outcome of the fight will depend on whether or not this happens. Miranda is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and should be able to avoid getting trapped in guard. I see Maia most likely meeting a similar fate as in his fight with Marquardt, but you can never know what tricks Maia has up his sleeve (example: Maia vs. Chael Sonnen).
Prediction: Mario Miranda by TKO (punches, Round 2)
Betting Recommendation: -200/+160 seems slightly in favor of a play on Miranda, but there are too many factors in play and the risk is high. I suggest no bet on this one, though a small play on Miranda is justified if you are a high-risk bettor.
*****
Heavyweight Bout
Randy Couture vs. James Toney
Fighter Profiles
Randy Couture (18-10 MMA, 15-7 UFC, 3-2 last five) has a record that makes him look worse than he actually is, and this is because until recently, almost all of his fights were championship fights against all the best fighters the UFC had to offer in two weight classes. Even at the age of 47, Couture is in shape and relies on a Greco-Roman wrestling base that does not require a lot of speed to execute successfully. Couture is also a very smart fighter and knows what he should and shouldn't be doing at his age and against any opponent.
James Toney (0-0 MMA) is a professional boxer who has pestered UFC president Dana White enough to convince him to set up this match. Toney is looking to make some bucks after his disappearance from relevance in the world of boxing. The former boxing great should still have the best boxing and the best chin in MMA. However, boxers in MMA are notorious for having poor footwork when it comes to defending kicks and takedowns. Toney is brand new to MMA and may have learned the basics of all the relevant concepts - however, he will still absolutely be relying on his punching power to score any win in this sport.
Pre-fight Analysis
James Toney is brand new to MMA and there is no way he will be able to compete with a high-level wrestler once the distance is closed. Toney's only hope for winning is by the so-called "puncher's chance." He might catch Randy as he is trying to close distance and drop him with a single punch, or he might have even developed enough footwork to keep the fight at a distance for a little bit. Couture's strategy is no secret - take Toney down, then either pound him out or submit him. Couture is smart enough to be able to successfully do this any time he wants. However, Toney's boxing technique, pure power, and Randy's increasingly fragile chin could spell disaster for the UFC hall of famer. Slim chance though.
Prediction: Randy Couture by submission (rear naked choke, Round 1)
Betting Recommendation: James Toney is a huge wild card coming into the fight. He may surprise, and the pain of a Randy Couture loss may be lessened by a bit of cash inflow. Small bet on Toney at +500 or better; don't wager any more than what you're willing to lose.
*****
Lightweight Championship Bout
Frankie Edgar (Champ) vs. BJ Penn
Fighter Profiles
Frankie Edgar (12-1 MMA, 7-1 UFC, 4-1 last five) is a wrestler with an endless gas tank and a dynamic, high-energy fighting style. He is small for a lightweight, typically not even having to cut weight to make 155 lbs. However, what he lacks in size and strength, he makes up for in speed and stamina. Because of this style, Edgar's fights tend to go to decision but are exciting to watch (much like fights in the WEC 145 and 135 lb. divisions). Edgar used tricky movement and well-timed striking to earn a close decision victory over Penn at UFC 112. However, many believed that Penn should have won, and the judges' puzzling scorecards (50-45, 49-46, 48-47, all for Edgar; I scored it 48-47 Edgar) only add to the controversy.
BJ Penn (15-6-1 MMA, 11-5-1 UFC, 3-2 last five) has arguably the best boxing in the lightweight division from a combined power/technique perspective. He combines these skills with the best takedown defense in the sport - which is due to his balance and flexibility - and he even has the ability to inflict heavy damage while defending a takedown. Even if the fight hit's the ground, Penn is a world champion jiu-jitsu artist, though for some reason he always prefers to keep the fight standing. Penn's major downfall has historically been his conditioning. He has had several poor performances due to cardio issues, and he did not look so great physically in his last fight with Edgar.
Pre-fight Analysis
The previous fight between the two could have gone either way, although both times I viewed the fight, I scored it 48-47 for Edgar. BJ seemed rather listless in that fight, perhaps due to the Abu Dhabi heat in the outdoor arena. However, Frankie Edgar decisively controlled the pace of the fight, and I expect the same to be the case in the rematch. Edgar's aggressiveness caused him to fall victim to solid counterpunches from BJ, but these punches were mostly jabs that didn't cause much damage. Assuming BJ's conditioning is better leading into this fight, I expect his punches to hurt more. I think we'll see much of the same, with Edgar mixing up striking from all different angles with takedown attempts to try to keep BJ guessing. Meanwhile, BJ will try to counterpunch his way to victory, but I don't see BJ being the aggressor because of Edgar's endless gas tank. It will come down to which person is landing the better strikes that night, and while my brain says it will be BJ, I'll have to go with the heart pick and choose Frankie Edgar to retain his title through a five-round decision.
Prediction: Frankie Edgar by decision
Betting Recommendation: The odds assume that the previous fight was a fluke. Regardless, the underdog play on Edgar should still be a sound move because of the effect of BJ's popularity on his betting line. Small play on Edgar at +250 or better.
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