TdF Commentary 7/8

Stage 5 Recap

Cavendish silences critics with decisive stage win

After a disappointing start to his Tour de France, crashing before the bunch sprint in Stage 1 and hiccuping in Stage 4, Mark Cavendish finally got the stage win he's been looking for.  A three-man breakaway formed early on and, as expected, was caught near the finish.  As the peloton sped through the winding streets of Montargis, the front of the pack stretched out.  The Garmin-Transitions team looked in control and ready to give Tyler Farrar his first career Tour de France stage victory.  Farrar had injured his arm earlier and had been unable to ride out of the saddle, so the decision to have Farrar contest the sprint was a surprise.

On the approach to the finish, Farrar sat comfortably in second place behind his leadout man Julian Dean, with Thor Hushovd riding at third.  Mark Cavendish was back in fifth, with his HTC-Columbia teammate and leadout man Mark Renshaw in fourth, and the two looked to be out of the running for the stage win.  However, Renshaw would make an amazing leadout, riding up next to Hushovd and bumping him out of the way (a legal maneuver) to get into Farrar's slipstream.  Renshaw would then speed ahead of the Garmin-Transitions riders and slingshot Cavendish to the finish for the easy stage victory.

Some miscommunication between Tyler Farrar and Julian Dean may have cost Farrar the victory.  As Farrar was set to take off, Dean peeled to the left to slingshot Farrar to the right.  However, Farrar instead tried to pass to the left and got caught between his teammate and the wall.  This error cost Farrar a considerable amount of time, and the American had to settle for a 10th place finish.  Farrar is still probably not at 100% though, and the strong move by Mark Renshaw and Mark Cavendish would have made a victory by anyone else incredibly difficult.

Thor Hushovd had a great position leading into the sprint, but claimed to have run out of energy trying to keep with the high pace of the HTC-Columbia and Garmin-Transitions leadout trains.  The green jersey holder finished in fifth place and increased his lead over Alessandro Petacchi in the points classification.  Hushovd's hard efforts in Stages 2 and 3 seemed to have taken a lot out of him, and he will need a good recovery to remain competitive in all the sprints.

Other than the green jersey competition, no notable standings have changed yesterday and today.  Fabian Cancellara remains in yellow, Jérôme Pineau in polka dots, and Geraint Thomas in white (having claimed the jersey in Stage 3).  Team Saxo Bank remains on top of the team classification.  Tomorrow's stage is another flat one, and once again only the green jersey standings should be affected.  Once we head into the Alps on Stage 7, the green jersey race will be put on hold, while all the other classifications will begin to shake up.

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	35 pts
2	Gerald Ciolek	Milram	30 pts
3	Edvald Boasson Hagen	Team Sky	26 pts
4	José Joaquin Rojas	Caisse D'Epargne	24 pts
5	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	22 pts
7	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	19 pts
8	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	18 pts
10	Tyler Farrar	Garmin-Transitions	16 pts
26	Oscar Freire	Rabobank	0 pts

*****

Notable Points Standings

1	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	102 pts
2	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	88 pts
3	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	81 pts
4	José Joaquin Rojas	Caisse D'Epargne	73 pts
5	Edvald Boasson Hagen	Team Sky	64 pts
9	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	50 pts
10	Gerald Ciolek	Milram	49 pts
24	Tyler Farrar	Garmin-Transitions	23 pts
34	Oscar Freire	Rabobank	18 pts

*****

Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6 is the last chance for the peloton to take it easy before heading into the Alps for four stages.  A category-4 climb comes 23 km from the finish, but by the finish the peloton should have regrouped, caught the breakaway, and set up for a bunch sprint.  Since this is the last flat stage for several days, sprinters' teams won't let a breakaway rider ruin their leaders' last chances at a victory before the mountains begin to torture their legs.  After his redemption today, Mark Cavendish would have to be the favorite to win Stage 6.

*****

For full Stage 5 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 6, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website.  Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening.  Live coverage on Versus begins at 8:30 AM (ET).

TdF Commentary 7/7

Stage 4 Recap

Petacchi claims second stage victory in Tour's first true bunch sprint

In the first of what should be three relatively easy and straightforward stages with no effect on anything other than the green jersey race, we were finally treated to what was the first true bunch sprint of the Tour.  A breakaway containing five riders was formed early, but was doomed to failure as the sprinting teams began their chase.  After a series of potentially dangerous roundabouts leading to the finish in Reims, Team HTC-Columbia set up their sprint train and a victory for Mark Cavendish seemed inevitable.  However, Stage 1 winner Alessandro Petacchi, knowing that Cavendish would begin his sprint from about 200 meters away from the finish, brilliantly started his own acceleration a little earlier, catching Cavendish off guard.  All the sprinting contenders would follow Petacchi but none were able to make the pass.  Cavendish hiccuped and already found himself several places back following Petacchi's surprise attack.  After a hard effort to catch up, the Briton he realized he couldn't get the stage win and stopped pedaling, ending up in 12th.

Many of the top sprinters, including Petacchi, were involved in the heavy crashes of Stage 2.  While Cavendish made it through the stage unscathed, Tyler Farrar wasn't so lucky.  Farrar already conceded before the beginning of the stage that he's probably too hurt to challenge for the sprint, so the Garmin-Transitions team instead sent Julian Dean and Robbie Hunter, who would impressively finish 2nd and 4th in today's stage, respectively.  The team will have to keep an eye on Farrar to see if and when he can contend for stage victories.  Robbie McEwen also had crashed and mentioned that it greatly affected his form in today's stage.  The Australian veteran still was able to get 4th today and sits in 3rd in the green jersey race, behind Hushovd and Petacchi.

Thor Hushovd, after working hard in Stages 2 and 3, claimed that he was out of energy in today's sprint.  Despite starting the sprint in a comfortable position, the green jersey holder ended up in 9th.  Hushovd continues to hold the green jersey, but with his mediocre finish and with Petacchi's win today, the race for the green jersey now again becomes competitive.  If Petacchi continues to dominate the bunch sprints like he used to do six or seven years ago, he could challenge for the green jersey in the same way Cavendish did last year.  Of course, to win the jersey, Petacchi must complete the race.  This could be difficult for him - in 2003, Petacchi dominated the Tour and the Giro sprints early on, but abandoned in the mountains.  However, in 2004, he would win an incredible nine stages and complete the race with the mauve jersey (the Giro's version of the Tour's green jersey).

Although it's still early in the race, it's quite safe to say the green jersey competition has now essentially been narrowed down to a two horse race.  If Petacchi continues his excellence all the way to Paris, Hushovd will have to consistently finish in the top five on bunch sprints, in addition to his usual strategy of getting points on intermediate stages.  In case Petacchi abandons the Tour during the Alps, another sprinter like McEwen would become Hushovd's top competition - but this would also make winning green much easier for the Norwegian.

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	35 pts
2	Julian Dean	Garmin-Transitions	30 pts
3	Edvald Boasson Hagen	Team Sky	26 pts
4	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	24 pts
7	José Joaquin Rojas	Caisse D'Epargne	19 pts
9	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	17 pts
10	Oscar Freire	Rabobank	16 pts
11	Gerald Ciolek	Milram	15 pts
12	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	14 pts
23	Tyler Farrar	Garmin-Transitions	3 pts

*****

Notable Points Standings

1	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	80 pts
2	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	70 pts
3	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	62 pts
5	José Joaquin Rojas	Caisse D'Epargne	49 pts
10	Edvald Boasson Hagen	Team Sky	38 pts
25	Gerald Ciolek	Milram	19 pts
28	Oscar Freire	Rabobank	18 pts
36	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	15 pts
56	Tyler Farrar	Garmin-Transitions	7 pts

*****

Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5 is the second of three consecutive "easy" stages that comes after three very stressful stages for the peloton (though the events of Stages 1 and 2 were more out of bad luck than difficult terrain).  The terrain here is almost flat, and once again the only significant action we should expect is the bunch sprint at the finish line.  The field should be a little more rested, so we may see a more exciting sprint than today's.  We'll also get a better idea of Mark Cavendish's situation - whether he's just been a victim of bad luck or whether he's really not the dominant rider he was last year.  That being said, the safest picks to win this stage would be either Cavendish or Petacchi, but instead I'll take a risk by picking Robbie McEwen.

*****

For full Stage 4 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 5, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website.  Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening.  As always, you can catch the live Versus broadcast at 8:30 AM (ET).

TdF Commentary 7/6

Stage 3 Recap

Thor lays down the hammer, Big gains for A. Schleck and Evans, F. Schleck crashes out of Tour, Cancellara reclaims yellow

Stage 3 delivered on all the excitement that it promised, though at the expense of several riders.  An early breakaway of six riders maintained their lead throughout the first half of the stage before largely faltering as the race hit the cobblestones.  Eventually, only Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Transitions) was only able to keep the breakaway going, and while he was given the combativity prize for his efforts, even he was not able to stop the aggressive chase of Fabian Cancellara and Andy Schleck.

Nervousness pervaded the peloton as they reached the cobbled sections.  With nearly 200 riders approaching the cobblestones at the same time, chaos was inevitable, and unfortunately, what seemed to have created the initial gaps that would thin the field out was a crash in the front of the peloton that meant the end of the Tour for GC contender Frank Schleck.  Finding themselves ahead of the ensuing traffic jam, Cancellara and A. Schleck took advantage of their teammate's misfortune by powering ahead, eventually catching Hesjedal and forcing a sizable gap over Schleck's rival GC competitors.  Thor Hushovd found himself in the front group and rode along to claim an easy sprint victory and the green jersey.  The heavy pace of Hushovd's group also gave back the yellow jersey to Cancellara.  Cadel Evans, also in the front group, now sits as the highest-placed GC contender.

Back in the peloton, as the field thinned out over the cobblestones, riders were less accident-prone, but were often victims of bad luck in the form of flat tires and other mechanical problems.  Lance Armstrong had been riding comfortably in the second group before puncturing, which saw him struggling to make up ground following a wheel replacement.  Alberto Contador also had a mechanical problem very close to the finish and was dropped from a group containing his teammate Alexandre Vinokourov and GC riders Bradley Wiggins and Denis Menchov.  Andreas Klöden punctured early and had to settle for finishing with the main peloton, 2'25" behind the leaders.  However, the unluckiest man of the day (well, maybe behind Frank Schleck), was Sylvain Chavanel, who at first looked very poised to defend his yellow jersey, before puncturing at least three times.  After having to drop back multiple times for bike replacements, he ended up losing nearly four minutes, and with that, his time wearing yellow.

Thor Hushovd's stage win now puts him at a huge advantage over the field in the green jersey race.  He claimed the green jersey today and barring any extraordinary circumstances, he should hold it all the way to Paris.  The only sprinters who are even within one stage (35 pts) of Hushovd's 63 points are Robbie McEwen (38 pts), Alessandro Petacchi (35 pts), and José Joaquin Rojas (30 pts).  Mark Cavendish already seemed to have resigned in his contention for the green jersey as he coasted to today's finish, claiming just one point.  Cavendish will instead probably just aim for stage wins from here on.

Following the abandoning of Frank Schleck, Andy Schleck's Tour has just become much harder.  The team would have relied on tactics involving both Schleck brothers to try to dethrone Alberto Contador.  Instead, the younger Schleck will now have to ride in the mountains with a significantly weaker supporting cast.  Additionally, while with Cancellara's and A. Schleck's performance in this stage Team Saxo Bank claims hold of the team classification, they are essentially removed from contention in the team classification once the race hits the mountains.  Team RadioShack had a mediocre outing today on the cobblestones but should now easily dominate the team classification from the Alps on.  In the mountains, RadioShack will also have a good edge tactically, as they have their triple threat of Armstrong, Leipheimer, and Klöden at their disposal.

*****

Notable Stage Results

1	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	4h49'38"
2	Geraint Thomas	Team Sky	+ 00'00"
3	Cadel Evans	BMC Racing Team	+ 00'00"
5	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 00'00"
6	Fabian Cancellara	Team Saxo Bank	+ 00'00"
8	Bradley Wiggins	Team Sky	+ 00'53"
10	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 00'53"
11	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 00'53"
13	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 01'13"
19	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 01'46"
32	Lance Armstrong	Team RadioShack	+ 02'08"
43	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 02'25"
54	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 02'25"
64	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 02'25"
78	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 02'25"
85	Tony Martin	Team HTC-Columbia	+ 02'25"
95	Sylvain Chavanel	Quick Step	+ 03'58"
-	Frank Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	DNF
-	Christian Vande Velde	Garmin-Transitions	DNS

*****

Notable GC Standings

1	Fabian Cancellara	Team Saxo Bank	14h54'00"
2	Geraint Thomas	Team Sky	+ 00'23"
3	Cadel Evans	BMC Racing Team	+ 00'39"
6	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 01'09"
8	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 01'31"
9	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 01'40"
13	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 01'49"
14	Bradley Wiggins	Team Sky	+ 01'49"
16	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 02'24"
18	Lance Armstrong	Team RadioShack	+ 02'30"
21	Tony Martin	Team HTC-Columbia	+ 02'35"
24	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 02'53"
29	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 03'01"
48	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 03'19"
49	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 03'20"

*****

Notable Points Standings

1	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo Test Team	63 pts
2	Geraint Thomas	Team Sky	49 pts
3	Sylvain Chavanel	BMC Racing Team	44 pts
4	Robbie McEwen	Team Saxo Bank	38 pts
7	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	35 pts
9	José Joaquin Rojas	Caisse D'Epargne	30 pts
35	Edvald Hagen Boasson	Team Sky	12 pts
54	Gerald Ciolek	Milram	4 pts
55	Tyler Farrar	Garmin-Transitions	4 pts
121	Oscar Freire	Rabobank	2 pts
137	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	1 pt

*****

Stage 4 Preview

After a chaotic last several days comes a sigh of relief in the form of a stage that is just about as simple as you can get.  We can only speculate if the events of the first three stages have taken their toll on some of the group, but regardless, this stage is so flat and straightforward that it's really hard to see any outcome other than a bunch sprint.  As of yet we have not yet had a traditional bunch sprint finish, and if things go tomorrow as planned, we may finally get an idea of who's the best pure sprinter on Tour.

This stage should be a great opportunity for sprinters like Mark Cavendish, Tyler Farrar, Oscar Freire, Gerald Ciolek, and Edvald Hagen Boasson to get some significant points under their belt and try to chip away at Thor Hushovd's lead.  Hushovd's lead may already be considered insurmountable, however, in which case other sprinters would just have to be satisfied with just going for stage victories.

I don't have much to say about this stage other than to just expect the standard long breakaway - chase - bunch sprint format that is common on the flat stages.  With that said, the most obvious prediction is a stage victory for the hungry Mark Cavendish.

*****

For full Stage 3 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 4, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website.  Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening.  The stage begins at 8:00 AM (ET) and TV coverage on Versus starts at 8:30 AM (ET).  Overall the stage should be rather uneventful until the expected chase and bunch sprint, which should begin around 11:00 AM (ET).

TdF Commentary 7/5

Stage 2 Recap

Chavanel takes breakaway win, Plague of crashes continues, Peloton protests

Crashes today along the wet and narrow roads of Belgium  caused an ugly stage that many riders have to be unhappy with.  A breakaway of eight riders formed early on, and as riders tired, only Sylvain Chavanel (Quick Step) would hold on for victory.  Back in the peloton, the narrow and slippery descent on the Col de Stockeu caused many riders to crash, and also resulted in huge splits in the peloton as riders slowed down to avoid the fallen.  Among the least fortunate was Andy Schleck, who went down and at first seemed to have been severely injured.  Lance Armstrong and Alberto Contador also fell and found themselves in a group that split off from the main group and had to make up time.

Before the crash, the peloton seemed intent on catching Chavanel to set up a sprint and retain Fabian Cancellara's yellow jersey.  However, much to the dismay of Thor Hushovd, Cancellara would slow down the lead peloton to wait for all the contenders to catch up, essentially conceding the stage win and the yellow jersey to Chavanel.  Such is the etiquette of the Tour - it's an unwritten rule to not attack if a contender has crashed and is working to catch up, as the race should be decided by skill and not road conditions.  However, today was an extreme case, with the peloton giving up a stage win as a result, and even going so far as to protest by not contesting the bunch sprint at the finish.

Thor Hushovd must be very irritated at this decision because this stage would have been a great opportunity for him to get ahead, and it was clear that he wanted to push the pace of the peloton instead of waiting for the lagging contenders.  However, after the chaotic events of Stage 1 which saw some of Hushovd's rivals in Mark Cavendish and Tyler Farrar fail to get on the board because of crashes, it would be kind of against the spirit of competition to first take advantage of one unfortunate situation in Stage 1 and then leave others in the dust after another unfortunate situation in Stage 2.  It should be noted, however, that Cavendish and some other sprinters had already been dropped by the peloton before all the chaos.  While I believe that at the very least riders should have been able to contest the bunch sprint, I have no problem with the green jersey situation as it stands, as the events of yesterday and today kind of cancel out a positive and a negative for Hushovd.

Sylvain Chavanel would eventually win by a large margin, earning him the yellow jersey and the day's combativity award.  His stage win, intermediate sprint points, and Stage 1 points would eventually give him the green jersey as well.  The race organizers decided not to award any points at the finish except to Chavanel, as part of a prearranged agreement with the peloton as part of their protest.  Thus, despite an actual finish that would have given the green jersey to Robbie McEwen, instead Alessandro Petacchi remains in second place and will wear Chavanel's green jersey tomorrow.  Jürgen Roelandts moves up to third in the green jersey standings for his Stage 1 points and today's intermediate sprint points.

Jérôme Pineau (Quick Step) was part of the stage's breakaway and will hold the Tour's first polka-dot jersey, with his total of 13 points in today's stage.  With the next several days have very few mountains points up for grabs, Pineau should be holding on to the jersey until the race reaches the Alps.  Today was a huge win for Quick Step, which is racing without its star Tom Boonen.  With their riders now holding all three major jerseys, and with a stage win and two combativity awards under their belt, it can already be considered a successful tour for the team.

Many riders struggled to rejoin the peloton, and among them was Christian Vande Velde, who eventually lost nearly 6 minutes to the GC contenders.  This essentially removes him from GC contenders, and Garmin-Chipotle should at this point focus their efforts entirely on Tyler Farrar.  Speaking of Farrar, the young American arrived with a heavily bandaged arm in the last bunch to arrive at the finish today, which may have arrived after the time limit.  Judging from the stage conditions and the peloton's protest, the race organizers will most likely be lenient and allow the riders to continue even if they didn't make the time limit.

We will have to wait until tomorrow to see the aftermath of this disastrous stage.  Many riders already knew that the Col de Stockeu's descent would be very dangerous, especially in the rain, and feel that it should have never been included on the Tour's route in the first place.  I would have to agree with them, judging from the ridiculous number of crashes on a single descent today, with even a motorcycle losing traction and going down on the slippery slope.  To make things worse, the riders will have yet another day that could be filled with crashes coming up tomorrow.  It would be a shame if the field is severely thinned out after just three stages - already after today many riders didn't look so good.

*****

Update: The cause of all the crashes on the descent of the Stockeu (from VeloNews.com): "It all started when Lampre rider Francesco Gavazzi crashed out of the breakaway on the Stockeu. A TV motorcycle then crashed while avoiding hitting Gavazzi, and the bike spilled oil on the road. The oil had time to run down the hill by the time the peloton came through a few minutes later, setting off a dangerous domino effect that saw over 60 riders sliding across the road." So in the end, it may have just been really bad luck and not poor judgment on the Tour organizers' part.  Ironically, Yahoo Sports says that the oil spilled onto the road was BP oil.

We have also learned that Christian Vande Velde has abandoned the Tour after sustaining rib injuries following his crash.  Robert Gesink also suffered a broken arm and is expected to abandon.  All other riders who crashed seem to have just gotten abrasions and should be good to go for tomorrow.  We'll want to keep an eye on Andy Schleck though, who didn't look good at all following his crash.  Check out the VeloNews link for all the info on the aftermath of the crashes.

*****

Notable GC Standings

1	Sylvain Chavanel	Quick Step	10h01'25"
2	Fabian Cancellara	Team Saxo Bank	+ 02'57"
3	Tony Martin	Team HTC-Columbia	+ 03'07"
5	Lance Armstrong	Team RadioShack	+ 03'19"
7	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 03'24"
8	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 03'25"
15	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 03'33"
16	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 03'35"
17	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 03'35"
19	Cadel Evans	BMC Racing Team	+ 03'36"
51	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 03'51"
53	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 03'52"
54	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 03'53"
57	Bradley Wiggins	Team Sky	+ 03'53"
59	Frank Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 03'54"
85	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 04'06"

*****

Notable Points Standings

1	Sylvain Chavanel	Quick Step	44 pts
2	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	35 pts
3	Jürgen Roelandts	Omega Pharma-Lotto	34 pts
5	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	26 pts
6	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	24 pts
23	Edvald Boasson Hagen	Team Sky	10 pts
31	Tyler Farrar	Garmin-Transitions	4 pts
-	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	0 pts
-	Oscar Freire	Rabobank	0 pts
-	Gerald Ciolek	Milram	0 pts

*****

Stage 3 Preview

Seems like danger is the name of the game for the beginning of this year's Tour.  Stage 3's profile looks innocent enough, yet for the peloton and especially team leaders, the stage will be incredibly stressful.  Seven cobblestone sections totaling 13.2 km line the second half of the stage and can easily result in crashes, flat tires, or splits in the peloton.  In 2004, a crash on a cobblestone section of a flat stage spelled the end of Tour contention for Iban Mayo and Tyler Hamilton.  This year's course is even more dangerous.

The last four cobbled sections are all within the last 30 km of the stage, so should the peloton split, the front group won't be able to increase the time gap as much as, say, a split with 70 km to go.  This is relatively good news for the GC contenders.  However, for the sprinters, the high concentration of cobbles near the end means that they will have to put themselves in a lot of danger if they want to set up a bunch sprint.

This stage would have been perfect for sprinter Tom Boonen, who has excelled in the Paris-Roubaix and Tour of Flanders - both single-day races heavily littered with cobblestones.  However, Boonen recently sustained a knee injury that has kept him out of the Tour.  Fabian Cancellara is also outstanding on the cobbles, but his top priority will be protecting his teammates Andy and Frank Schleck.  If Cancellara finds himself in the lead peloton towards the end of the stage, we may see him launch an attack for the stage win.

Honestly, I have no idea what to expect in tomorrow's stage, as it's really unusual to see this kind of stage in a stage race.  If I had to guess, I would say that the peloton will play it safe and allow a breakaway victory.  As the peloton reaches the cobbles, it will probably shatter into pieces as if on a mountain stage.  We will probably see many of the GC contenders losing time, and this stage can actually be a good opportunity for some of the GC contenders who are stronger on the cobbles (like Armstrong) to get some time over rivals.  Other than that, I won't make any particular predictions.

*****

For full Stage 2 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 3, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website.  Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening.  The stage will start at 6:35 AM (ET), and TV coverage on Versus starts at 8:30 AM (ET).  By 10:45 AM (ET), the riders will be approaching the most dangerous part of the course, which should provide the most intense drama of the day.

TdF Commentary 7/4

Stage 1 Recap

Crashes everywhere near the finish, Petacchi survives for stage win and green jersey

The first day of racing in the Tour, and especially the first sprint, can be a nervous time for all the riders.  Today, multiple crashes near the end of the race eliminated nearly all the top sprinters from contention for the stage win.  Veteran sprinter Alessandro Petacchi was one of the few riders not to get caught up in the ensuing traffic jam and won a sprint hardly resembling the bunch sprint we expected.

The breakaway of the day was established right at the beginning of the stage, with Lars Boom (Rabobank) starting the attack and being joined by Maarten Wynants (Quick Step) and Alan Perez (Euskaltel-Euskadi).  The three would sustain their attack for nearly 200 km.  As the peloton came closer, only Wynants was able to keep the lead, and as Boom and Perez were caught by the peloton, Alexandr Pliuschin (Katusha) launched a counterattack and joined Wynants.  Still, it was only a matter of time before the peloton would reel in the escapees to set up a bunch sprint.  Wynants took home the combativeness prize of the day - a victory for the Quick Step team, who without the injured sprinter Tom Boonen do not have a lot they can realistically achieve on Tour.

At least three crashes occurred in the peloton in the middle portion of the stage - one involving GC contender Ivan Basso and green jersey wearer David Millar.  However, the biggest drama of the stage occurred in the last 5 km of the stage.  After the escapees were caught with 8.5 km left to go in the stage, the pace of the peloton was high.  A small crash during a right turn seemed to be instigated by an over-aggressive Mark Cavendish, taking out himself and sprinter Oscar Freire.  Then on the final straightaway, as sprinters were setting up their final pushes, a crash towards the front of the peloton caused a chain reaction that halted all those riding behind to a standstill.  Among the few riders surviving were Thor Hushovd, Robbie McEwen, Alessandro Petacchi, and Tyler Farrar - who now seemed in prime position for the stage win with Cavendish out of contention.  However, another rider got tangled up with Farrar and the two went down.  Eventually, Petacchi won the sprint convincingly, followed by Cavendish's lead-out man Mark Renshaw, then Hushovd and McEwen.

The Tour acknowledges the dangerous nature of the final moments of a stage.  Thus, although the peloton finished several minutes behind Petacchi in real time, all riders in the peloton will be given the same time as Petacchi.  This ruling is used when a crash happens in the final 3 km of a stage.  As a result of this, as expected there are no major changes to the GC standings, and Fabian Cancellara will retain the yellow jersey, and Tony Martin the white jersey.  For his sprint victory, Alessandro Petacchi earns the green jersey. Meanwhile, the polka-dot jersey has still not yet been awarded, though with categorized climbs finally on the map tomorrow, we will see someone wearing it after then.

The many crashes in this stage were a huge scare, and we'll have to wait until tomorrow to see in any riders will be unable to continue the race.  The biggest winners of this stage were Alessandro Petacchi, who at 37 years old and in his first Tour since 2004, showed that he still has elite form; and Thor Hushovd, who was able to survive and earn 26 points with his third-place finish, giving him some breathing space over the likes of Mark Cavendish and Tyler Farrar.  Meanwhile, Cavendish and Farrar now find themselves in a hole after not scoring any points on a stage on which they would have excelled had it not been for the crashes.  Farrar has 4 cumulative points for his impressive performance in the prologue, while Cavendish still has yet to get on the board.  They and Oscar Freire now already find themselves well behind Hushovd.

*****

Notable Points Standings

1	Alessandro Petacchi	Lampre-Farnese	35 pts
2	Mark Renshaw	Team HTC-Columbia	30 pts
3	Thor Hushovd	Cervélo TestTeam	26 pts
4	Robbie McEwen	Katusha	24 pts
22	Edvald Boasson Hagen	Team Sky	10 pts
30	Tyler Farrar	Garmin-Transitions	4 pts
-	Mark Cavendish	Team HTC-Columbia	0 pts
-	Oscar Freire	Rabobank	0 pts
-	Gerald Ciolek	Milram	0 pts

*****

Stage 2 Preview

Stage 2 will take place entirely in Belgium, and after two days without any categorized climbs, we'll finally see someone in polka dots by the end of tomorrow.  The layout of the stage will create some interesting tactics from beginning to end.  First, an intermediate sprint at 39.5 km might be enticing, especially to the sprinters who got caught up in crashes in today's stage.  Any opportunity at getting points is now crucial to those sprinters who have fallen behind, and they may interested in keeping the peloton intact until then in order to compete for the 6 points up for grabs.  39.5 km may be too far, however, for teams to continually prevent breakaways from being established.

None of the climbs tomorrow are too great in point value, so it's unlikely that the top contenders for the polka-dot jersey will make their moves.  Instead, with only just a few climbs (all category 4) remaining before the Tour hits the Alps, breakaway riders will battle it out amongst themselves for the rights to hold the polka-dot jersey possibly through Stage 5 or 6.

This stage is perfect for sprinters like Thor Hushovd and Oscar Friere, while the likes of Mark Cavendish will get dropped on the final climb.  If the main breakaway is large, Cervélo TestTeam and Rabobank will push the peloton and try to catch the breakaway to get maximum points for Hushovd and Freire.  Team Saxo Bank may join in the effort, so as to prolong Fabian Cancellara's yellow jersey tenure.  However, if the breakaway is very small, the hybrid sprinters may want to save their energy and just battle for partial credit, as the pure sprinters are likely out of contention for any points on this stage.  In this case, we may see someone new in yellow after today, as Saxo Bank will want to save its energy for the Schleck brothers (i.e. in the mountains).

The polka-dot jersey is up for grabs, so I'll predict a larger breakaway of about 15 riders, with a few riders battling it out for mountains points and the rest mainly aiming for a stage win.  Only 2.5 km separates the bottom of the final descent and the finish line, so the peloton may be interested in catching the breakaway on the ascent of the Col du Rosier.  This stage presents too good an opportunity for Hushovd and Freire to pass up, so I'll predict that the breakaway will be caught by a fairly large group (40+ riders) containing Hushovd, Freire, and all the GC contenders, with Oscar Freire getting the stage victory, along with much needed points.  Count on Thor Hushovd ending up with the green jersey after today, though.  For the first polka-dot jersey, I'll pick Amets Txurruka to get a lead comfortable enough to hold until the end of Stage 5.

*****

For full Stage 1 results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 2, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website.  Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening.  The stage will start at 6:10 AM (ET), and Versus's TV coverage will begin at 8:30 AM (ET).