TdF Commentary 7/3

Prologue Recap

Cancellara dominates, Armstrong impresses, Wiggins disappoints

The story of the day was the weather.  Roads were damp the whole day, and rain fell for all but the beginning and the end of the prologue.  Early on, Tony Martin established a great time of 10'10" on the 8.9 km (5.5 mi) course, but as rain started pouring, riders became less aggressive.  The rain stopped with just a few riders left to start, and only the stage-favorite Fabian Cancellara - second to last out of the gate - would top Martin's time, topping it by a full 10 seconds for a finishing time of 10'00" and an average speed of 53.4 kmh (33.2 mph).

Once again, we will be treated to the familiar sight of the Swiss time-trial specialist wearing the first yellow jersey of the Tour.  For winning the stage, Cancellara also receives the green jersey, but since he will already be wearing yellow, and since second place finisher Martin will be wearing the white jersey, the honor of wearing green tomorrow will go to the third place finisher - British time-trial specialist David Millar.  The polka-dot jersey will not be worn tomorrow, as there were no rated climbs in the prologue.  In the team classification, Team RadioShack has already put itself into a very slight lead, but in a few days, another team can be expected to take a temporary lead with a breakaway victory on Stage 2.

With the roads wet, heavily painted, and twisting at some parts, many of the GC contenders were forced to play it safe due to the rain.  Only Lance Armstrong and Alberto Contador really got the chance to attack the course at full speed.  After an abysmal time trial in the recent Tour de Suisse and poor time-trialling in general as of late, Armstrong made a point with an impressive 4th place finish, 22 seconds behind Cancellara.  This puts the American hero neck-and-neck with arch-rival Contador to start off the Tour.  The defending champion finished 5 seconds behind Armstrong.

Particularly disappointing today was Bradley Wiggins, who was earlier considered to be a favorite to win the stage.  Instead, he already finds himself 34" behind Armstrong and 29" behind Contador.  Christian Vande Velde also turned in a sub-par performance today.  After crashing out of the Giro d'Italia and sustaining injuries, he can only hope that the first week of cycling will get him back into shape.  Frank Schleck and Andy Schleck turned in the mediocre performances we expected of them today.  The result really shows that they will have to be aggressive in the mountains and build a considerable lead over their rivals heading into the final time trial on Stage 19.

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Notable GC Standings

1	Fabian Cancellara	Team Saxo Bank	10'00"
2	Tony Martin	Team HTC-Columbia	+ 00'10"
3	David Millar	Garmin-Transitions	+ 00'20"
4	Lance Armstrong	Team RadioShack	+ 00'22"
6	Alberto Contador	Astana	+ 00'27"
8	Levi Leipheimer	Team RadioShack	+ 00'28"
17	Andreas Klöden	Team RadioShack	+ 00'36"
19	Alexandre Vinokourov	Astana	+ 00'38"
20	Roman Kreuziger	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 00'38"
23	Cadel Evans	BMC Racing Team	+ 00'39"
70	Carlos Sastre	Cervélo TestTeam	+ 00'54"
72	Ivan Basso	Liquigas-Doimo	+ 00'55"
74	Denis Menchov	Rabobank	+ 00'56"
77	Bradley Wiggins	Team Sky	+ 00'56"
79	Frank Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 00'57"
92	Christian Vande Velde	Garmin-Transitions	+ 01'00"
122	Andy Schleck	Team Saxo Bank	+ 01'09"

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Stage 1 Preview

June 17 was the 65th birthday of Eddy Merckx, widely considered to be the greatest and one of the most influential cyclists of all time.   As a kind of tribute to the Belgian legend, the 2010 Tour's first group start will finish in his home city of Brussels.  To summarize some of Merckx accomplishments:

• One of two cyclists to achieve the Triple Crown of Cycling (winning the Tour, Giro, and World Championships in the same year)
• One of five cyclists to have won all three Grand Tours (Tour, Giro, Vuelta)
• 11 total Grand Tour victories, the most by any cyclist (5 Tours, 5 Giros, 1 Vuelta)
• 525 career victories, most by any cyclist
• Only cyclist to win the yellow, green, and polka-dot jersey in a single TdF

Americans drool over Lance Armstrong's accomplishments, but in pure cycling terms, it's shameful to even think of comparing him with Merckx.

The flat profile of this stage means that we can expect a breakaway to be established early and caught late, resulting in a bunch sprint.  The peloton will travel along the Dutch coastline to begin the stage, where notoriously strong crosswinds could potentially break up the pack as they did in this year's Giro.  However, even in the case of a split, there should be ample time once the cyclists pass the Belgian border for the peloton to amalgamate.  We should most likely see a bunch sprint, with the stage victory and green jersey at stake.

Tomorrow is July 4, so I expect the Garmin-Transitions team to put in a little extra steam to assure a win for the young American Tyler Farrar.  If British superstar Mark Cavendish is back in 2009 shape, though, it will be difficult to pry a victory on any flat stage from him.

Still, in the spirit of the American Revolution, I will make an all-too-appropriate prediction by choosing Tyler Farrar to end the Briton's dominance on Tour.

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For full Prologue results and overall standings, more complete info on Stage 1, and live newsflashes on race day, visit the official TdF website.  Footage of tomorrow's stage can be seen on the Versus channel live in the morning or on tape delay in the evening.  The stage will start at 5:45 AM (ET) and live coverage on Versus commences at 8:30 AM (ET).  However, the greatest action will begin to occur at around 10:45 AM (ET), close to the end of the stage.

TdF Predictions & Prologue Preview

Predictions

Here I'll make my picks to win all the major prizes in this year's Tour.  We'll see in three weeks how I did.  For the general classification, it's hard to see anyone beating Alberto Contador, even if he's not at 100%.  I expect a repeat of last year's podium with Andy Schleck finishing second and Lance Armstrong third.  However, I would not be surprised to see the aging Armstrong replaced by a RadioShack teammate like Andreas Kloden or Levi Leipheimer at the third spot.  We will find out when the Tour hits the Alps if Lance still has what it takes, or whether someone else should take the lead.  Bradley Wiggins and Frank Schleck are also very much in contention for a podium finish, and Ivan Basso may surprise.

In the points classification, it's hard to see Mark Cavendish winning the jersey, especially if his racing is not nearly as dominant as last year.  Last year's green jersey winner Thor Hushovd hasn't exactly been racing at his peak potential this year either, so I'll go with an upset by choosing Oscar Freire, who has been having a great season so far.  With Cavendish not at 100%, we might also see Tyler Farrar win at least one stage, and I'll also be rooting for my favorite sprinter - the veteran Robbie McEwen - to get a stage victory.

The King of the Mountains competition is always hard to predict.  I'll go ahead and pick last year's runner up Egoi Martinez, but my pick will almost certainly be wrong, just because the competition is so wide open.  The young rider classification should be won easily by Andy Schleck, and the team classification by Team RadioShack, as I mentioned in yesterday's post.  To summarize my picks:

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Jason's Picks

Yellow Jersey	2nd Place	3rd Place
Alberto Contador	Andy Schleck	Lance Armstrong

Green Jersey	Polka-Dot Jersey
Oscar Freire	Egoi Martinez

White Jersey	Team Classification
Andy Schleck	Team RadioShack

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Prologue - July 3

For the first time in three years, the Tour will once again begin with a prologue, after some experimentation with a group race in 2008 and a longer time trial in 2009 to kick off those respective Tours.  This year's race begins with an 8.9 km time trial in Rotterdam, The Netherlands, and the Tour won't actually reach France itself until the end of Stage 3.

Prologues tend to occur in large cities and are relatively flat.  This year's course is no exception, with the only two inclines of note just being bridges crossing the Nieuwe Maas river.  The course is perfect for a time-trial specialist like the Swiss grinder Fabian Cancellara or the elite track cyclist Bradley Wiggins.  However, the very short length of the course is also optimal for a power-pedaler like Thor Hushovd.  We may even see a surprise victory by Alberto Contador, who may look to grab the yellow jersey immediately.

I'll go ahead and make the safest pick by choosing Fabian Cancellara to win the stage by a small margin and hold onto the yellow jersey until the end of Stage 2.

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Make sure to check out the TdF's official website for more complete info on the stage, as well as on race day for live newsflashes (in my opinion the most efficient and exciting way to follow the race).  Televised coverage of the race can be caught live at 11:15 AM (ET), or on tape delay (during the evening) on the Versus channel.

2010 Tour de France Preview: The Contenders, Part 2

The Tour is only two days away and it's time to wrap up the preview with a rundown of possible contenders for the polka-dot and white jerseys, along with the team classification.

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King of the Mountains - Polka-Dot Jersey

The King of the Mountains competition tends to be a little hard to predict, since the competition is affected by the action of the peloton and the GC contenders.  Additionally, the multiple paths to victory tend to complicate the situation, as well as the occasional crossover of a pure climber into GC contention.  Anyway, I'll just highlight a few of the potential winners.

Egoi Martinez (Euskaltel-Euskadi)

With last year's polka-dot jersey winner Franco Pellizotti currently withheld from competition for suspicious blood values, a natural favorite for this year's competition would be last year's runner-up Egoi Martinez.  His team, Euskaltel-Euskadi, often has great climbers who are not quite at the GC level.  He and teammate Amets Txurruka  - another jersey contender - will have to cooperate to make sure the polka-dot jersey doesn't go to another team.

Damiano Cunego (Lampre-Farnese Vini)

The young winner of the 2004 Giro d'Italia never developed into the powerhouse he was once hyped to become.  With new youngsters in Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck now in the spotlight, Damiano Cunego has all but disappeared from the top of the ladder.  Never a strong time trial rider, Cunego would be aiming high by going for GC standing.  However, he still is a strong enough climber to vie for the polka-dot jersey.

Alberto Contador (Astana)

Contador will obviously make the yellow jersey victory his priority, but he remains a dark horse for the polka-dot jersey.  GC contenders typically place high in the polka-dot jersey standings but rarely on top.  Still, Contador can finish with both jerseys if there is excessive competition amongst the pure climbers.  (Note: No rider has won both jerseys since Eddy Merckx in 1970.   2008 yellow jersey winner Carlos Sastre placed 2nd in the King of the Mountains competition, and polka-dot jersey winner Bernhard Kohl would later get his prize revoked for doping.  However, Sastre has not retroactively been awarded the jersey.)

Others to watch

John Gadret (Ag2r-La Mondiale)

Joaquim Rodriguez (Team Katusha)

Amets Txurruka (Euskaltel-Euskadi)

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Young Rider Classification - White Jersey

The young rider classification is open to any rider born on or after 1984 and is based on GC standing.  This year's white jersey race should be dominated by one rider, and the competition for the jersey can largely be ignored.

Andy Schleck (Team Saxo Bank)

Andy Schleck is expected to finish on the podium this year, and barring any devastating circumstances, he is a lock to win the white jersey.  This year's Tour has no shortage of great young riders, but none of them are nearly of the same level as Schleck.  Those riders will merely look to fulfill their duties as domestiques or #2 options.  Sadly for the other young riders looking to win white, Schleck will still be eligible for the classification next year.  Robert Gesink and Roman Kreuziger will have to wait until 2012 to battle for the white jersey, and perhaps they will be yellow jersey contenders by then as well.

Others to watch

Robert Gesink (Rabobank)

Roman Kreuziger (Liquigas-Doimo)

Tony Martin (Team HTC-Columbia)

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Team Classification

The team classification is based on the cumulative time of the top three riders from each team on each stage.  Astana won convincingly last year, and with this year's Team RadioShack basically being last year's Astana minus Contador, they still have the depth and strength to win comfortably.  Team Saxo Bank is always strong and dangerous and is the clear 2nd best team, but it would still be a huge surprise if they squeeze out the win.

Team RadioShack

Team RadioShack is a step above the rest because of the sheer number of elite riders they have.  Lance Armstrong, Levi Leipheimer, and Andreas Kloden all have the skill to be a #1 option on any other team, and you can expect all three of them to be in the leaders' peloton.  The team also has a very capable group of domestiques in Chris Horner, Yaroslav Popovych, and Janez Brajkovic, who can find themselves in a breakaway on any given day.

Team Saxo Bank

Team Saxo Bank is loaded with talent, but unlike Team RadioShack has "only" two GC contenders in Frank and Andy Schleck.  Saxo Bank can count on time trial specialist Fabian Cancellara and the popular breakaway artist Jens Voigt for some stage wins, but ultimately the lack of a third consistent GC threat (previously Carlos Sastre) puts the team a huge step below Team RadioShack.

Others to watch

Astana (Key riders: Alberto Contador, Alexandre Vinokourov)

Liquigas-Doimo (Key riders: Ivan Basso, Roman Kreuziger)

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Tomorrow is the eve of the Tour and will be beginning of my (ideally) daily updates.  Tomorrow I'll make some predictions and preview the prologue, and on subsequent days I'll comment on the day's action and preview the following stage.  Get ready!

2010 Tour de France Preview: The Contenders, Part 1

The Tour is starting in just a couple days!  Let's continue getting prepared by running down the list of potential contenders for the Tour's top prizes.  Today we'll introduce the yellow and green jersey contenders.

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General Classification - Yellow Jersey

It's one of those Tours where one man is heavily favored to win the yellow jersey.  The rest of the field, especially those on stronger teams, may try to use cunning tactics to try to steal the top spot.  Other top riders might merely aim for a Top 3 finish for a spot on the revered podium in Paris.

Alberto Contador (Astana)

The winner of the 2007 and 2009 Tours de France would have been a favorite to win the 2008 Tour had his team been eligible to race, and is a heavy favorite to win this year's edition.  Contador's climbing skills are beyond compare, and his time-trialling has developed to an elite level.  His team won't be the strongest, and Contador has been battling the flu lately, but he is still the man to beat.

Andy Schleck (Team Saxo Bank)

Last year's runner-up and two-time white jersey winner will look to improve his standing this year.  His mediocre time trial skills will be helped by the presence of only one long time trial in this year's course.  He may by now have the ability to keep up with Contador, but must be more aggressive than that to emerge victorious.  Fortunately, he has a solid team and a nearly-as-dangerous teammate in his older brother Frank, and can perhaps devise some tactics to shake off the champion.

Lance Armstrong (Team RadioShack)

After an impressive podium finish in last year's Tour during a sudden comeback, Lance will now have a longer period of training behind his back and should be more prepared for this year's Tour.  At the age of 38, his climbing skills and especially time-trialling skills have unsurprisingly not been at the level of his glory days.  However, his recent second place finish at this year's Tour de Suisse may be an indicator that he's in good shape.  He'll also have an incredibly deep team to help him out, or to take over should he fall behind.

Ivan Basso (Liquigas-Doimo)

The winner of the Giro d'Italia in 2006 and 2010 is aiming high this year by riding in both the Giro and the Tour.  Not many cyclists dare ride two Grand Tours back-to-back, and the last person to win both the Giro and the Tour was fellow Italian Marco Pantani back in 1998.  While the victory in this year's Giro showed that Basso is still among cycling's elite, whether he will have enough left in the tank for the Tour is still a mystery.

Cadel Evans (BMC Racing Team)

Year after year, Cadel Evans has finished close to the top, but has never won the Tour.  His participation in the year's Giro may be an indication that he may not be aiming so high this year, with Contador being so dominant.  Evans is an outstanding time-triallist, but has a reputation for riding extremely passively on the mountains.  He can no longer rely on his time trial abilities on this year's course, which only has one stage of the kind.

Denis Menchov (Rabobank)

Menchov has had a similar history to Cadel Evans, always coming close to the win but falling short.  He has won the Giro d'Italia and twice won the Vuelta a España, but hasn't gotten the same results on the Tour.  With the competition getting stronger, and with his team dividing their attention between him and sprinter Oscar Freire, it could be a tough road ahead for the Russian.

Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky)

The track-cycling phenom surprised everyone last year by showing that he could climb with the best, leading to a 4th place finish on the Tour.  This year, Wiggins will look to remove any doubt that last year's result was a fluke.  His new team is relatively weak, but the time trial is as flat as a velodrome and should feel familiar to the Briton, who may be a wild card this year for a podium finish.

Others to watch

Frank Schleck (Team Saxo Bank)

Andreas Kloden (Team RadioShack)

Levi Leipheimer (Team RadioShack)

Robert Gesink (Rabobank)

Samuel Sanchez (Euskaltel-Euskadi)

Jani Brajkovic (Team RadioShack)

Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana)

Roman Kreuziger (Liquigas-Doimo)

Carlos Sastre (Cervélo TestTeam)

Christian Vande Velde (Garmin-Transitions)

Tony Martin (Team HTC-Columbia)

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Points Classification - Green Jersey

Last year, Mark Cavendish made a statement by establishing himself as the dominant pure sprinter on Tour.  However, it was Thor Hushovd who quietly won the green jersey by winning points on stages that weren't prototypically set up for bunch sprints.  This year, the question will largely be the same, with the contenders being a mix of pure sprinters, who go blazing fast on the flats but get dropped by the peloton on the climbs, and what I call "hybrid sprinters," who can consistently place high on bunch sprints but can also keep with the peloton on climbs.

Mark Cavendish (Team HTC-Columbia)

The young Briton's meteoric rise culminated in an incredible six stage wins in last year's Tour de France.  While Cavendish's main target was stage wins, he may have won the green jersey had it not have been for eventual winner Thor Hushovd's ability to grab points on steeper stages.  Cavendish's performance this year has not been as dominant as last year, but he remains a favorite to win most of the flat stages on Tour, and one of the top contenders for the green jersey.

Thor Hushovd (Cervélo TestTeam)

The recipient of last year's green jersey won the prize through consistency - staying with the pack on flat stages with climbs near the end, and riding aggressively on intermediate levels.  While he wasn't the fastest pure sprinter, he placed high on every sprint and grabbed points on the most stages.  If he wants to win the green jersey this year, he will have to follow a similar approach, as we can expect Cavendish, if in top shape, to win just about every traditional sprint finish.

Oscar Freire (Rabobank)

The winner of the green jersey in 2008 has a similar riding style to Thor Hushovd.  The Spaniard has the ability to stay with the pack on lesser climbs, and even to hold his own in a breakaway.  He is also notoriously adept at sprints with a slight uphill incline.  Freire will have to try to take advantage of these particular sprints, and will have to ride just as aggressively as Hushovd to have a shot at green.

Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Transitions)

The young American has been fast-rising in the sprinting ranks, but at this point is a kind of poor man's Cavendish.  Farrar is a pure sprinter who may be able to get a very high standing in most traditional sprint stages and may win a stage or two.  However, he will have an extremely difficult time outscoring Cavendish on a consistent basis, and his only shot at the green jersey would realistically happen if Cavendish gives up in the mountains.

Others to watch

Edvald Boasson Hagen (Team Sky)

Robbie McEwen (Team Katusha)

Gerald Ciolek (Team Milram)

Jose Joaquin Rojas (Caisse d'Epargne)

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Tomorrow, we'll wrap up the Tour preview with a rundown of the contenders for the polka-dot jersey, white jersey, and team classification.

2010 Tour de France Preview: The Course

With my 100th post on this blog (!), we'll start off my preview of the 2010 Tour de France with an overview and cursory analysis of the course, and a rundown of the key stages of the race for the yellow, green, and polka-dot jersey contenders.

This year's course will run clockwise, which means the race will pass first through the Alps, then through the Pyrenees.  Notable in the course this year is the presence of only one full-length time trial (Stage 19) as opposed to the usual two, and the first appearance of extended sections of cobblestones (Stage 3) on Tour in quite a while.  Only two high-mountain stages are in the Alps this year, and both are relatively easy.  On the other hand, there will be four high-mountain stages in the Pyrenees, three of which can have major implications on the general classification.

Let's now take a look at the key stages for the yellow, green, and polka-dot jersey competitions.  For all the info about this year's course, check out the race preview on the official Tour de France website.

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Key Stages - Yellow Jersey

Stage 3 (July 6)

Although this is a flat stage, the multiple long cobblestone sections can create chaos at any moment.  In 2004, a gigantic crash on a short cobbled section meant the end of the Tour for then-contender Iban Mayo.  Riders will need to be careful (and lucky) to avoid crashes.  The peloton may also find itself splitting up as riders have trouble negotiating the cobbles (which can be as difficult as climbs).  Teams with riders experienced with cobbles will look to protect their GC rider, or perhaps even try to split the peloton.  If all goes well, this stage should end in a bunch sprint, but really anything can happen.

Stage 8 (July 11)

The first mountain stage of the Tour doesn't have any HC climbs and overall is relatively tame for the Alps.  However, it has a mountaintop finish, and so it's automatically a GC battleground.  Riders may want to attack here if they sense any rustiness in their rivals, or if they want to send a message.  The most important GC stage will almost undoubtedly be Stage 17, but contenders may look to use some energy to grab a few seconds on this one.

Stage 14 (July 18)

Just as the first stage in the Alps has a mountaintop finish, so does the first stage in the unforgiving Pyrenees.  Because the flat section between the last two climbs is short, GC contenders will start making their moves on the climb up the Port de Pailhères and will try to maintain a gap leading into the final climb using an aggressive descent.

Stage 15 (July 19)

While this stage doesn't have a mountaintop finish, we may see some attacking on the Port de Balès, because of the very brief flat segment to end the stage.  Note also that this stage comes immediately after another competitive stage, so riders will want to budget their energy very carefully between Stages 14 and 15.

Stage 17 (July 22)

You can probably tell from the picture alone that Stage 17 should be the granddaddy stage of the Tour.  This stage comes immediately after a rest day, and riders should be well prepared for the famous climb up the Col du Tourmalet.  This will actually be the second time the riders make the ascent in the 2010 Tour, as the climb is also made in the middle of Stage 16.  The climb is a grueling 11.6 miles at a 7.5% grade (that equals a climb of 4577 feet).  You can expect to see tons of aggressive riding from the best of the Tour's climbers.

Stage 19 (July 24)

The final time trial is as flat as a pancake, and riders will look to make a final push to improve their spot on the GC.  I expect the Top 3 to pretty much be decided by the end of Stage 17, but if the time gaps are small enough (within 1 or 2 minutes), this time trial can be very important.

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Key Stages - Green Jersey

Stages 1, 4, 5, 6, 11, 18, and 20 are pretty much tailor-made for sprinters, so in those stages we can expect to see bunch sprints for the full 35 points, or in the case of a successful breakaway, a sprint for partial credit.  Let's highlight the stages that aren't prototypical sprinters' stages but can have an impact on the green jersey race.

Stage 2 (July 5)

A climb near the end of an otherwise flattish stage is a nightmare for a pure sprinter and a blessing for those sprinters who can stay with the peloton on the easy climbs.  Sprinters who get dropped by the peloton on the final climb will have to rush to get back to the front of the group if they want to claim any points on a stage that is already likely to be won by a breakaway.

Stage 3 (July 6)

This stage can be as scary for the sprinters as it is for the GC contenders.  Green jersey contenders must make sure to avoid crashing and to stay near the front of the pack, in case the peloton splits.  The final cobbled section ends just 8 km from the finish and can create some extremely dangerous situations if the peloton is already moving at full speed by then.  If the sprinters' teams push the peloton less aggressively, we could see a breakaway win, with the sprinters having to fight for partial credit.

Stage 10 (July 14)

On the Bastille Day stage, we can expect a victory by a breakaway composed largely of Frenchmen.  However, the sprinters who don't fall too far behind on the climb (like Hushovd or Freire) will find the descents at the end of the stage helpful in getting the best possible stage position.  Most other sprinters will fall very far behind at the first climb and may just aim to finish within the time limit.

Stage 13 (July 17)

Another stage with a climb near the finish.  By this point in the race, sprinters will have an idea of who the top contenders are and what they need to do for the rest of the race.  We could see some sprinters in need of points attempt to get on a breakaway, though the course should be flat enough for rival teams to keep them under control.  Either way, sprinters with decent climbing legs will ride aggressively towards the end.  Count on a breakaway victory, but don't be surprised to see several sprinters grabbing points.

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Key Stages - Polka-Dot Jersey

Stage 9 (July 13)

For polka-dot jersey contenders who want to use the strategy of going all out on one entire stage, this isn't the best one to do so (Stage 16 is), but Stage 9 can be worth it.  King of the Mountains contenders will try to at least grab the category 1 and 2 climbs.  The GC riders will probably take it easy on this stage because of the extended flat portion to end the stage, so polka-dot jersey competitors may be interested in trying to take the HC climb up the Col de la Madeleine.  Whether use all the energy to sustain an attack through the entire stage will be up to their discretion, though.  Alternatively, we may see riders aiming primarily at other stages stay with the pack until the final climb, where they will try to pass the leaders and steal the points.

Stage 16 (July 20)

This stage can be very interesting for the polka-dot jersey competition.  We will likely see one or more riders attempt a breakaway from the very start to try to get the points for these high-valued climbs.  This breakaway, if successful, can even result in a stage victory if the attackers can maintain their lead on the descent.

Stage 17 (July 22)

The climb up the Col de Tourmalet will be for the yellow jersey competitors, but the polka-dot jersey riders can go for the category 1 climbs.  Depending on the pace of the GC contenders, the polka-dot jersey riders may even have a shot at being the first up the final climb.  This stage comes after the key Stage 16, but with a day of rest, riders who weren't as aggressive on Stage 16 may be ready to be aggressive on Stage 17.

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During the race, I'll post more detailed previews of each stage, put into the context of the standings and state of the race at that point.  The other portion of the race preview will overview the contenders for the yellow, green, polka-dot, and white jersey competitions, as well as the team classification.  This will come in either one or two installments, depending on how long it ends up being.